Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Thursday, April 29, 2004
van Gecko 06:31 GMT April 30, 2004
"Euro had satisfied m/t price time equality objectives with its 20 pip grind under last week's low..
as for the proxy twin, levels above usd/chf 1.31 are exhaustive & not sustainable without a liquidity dive down to the 1.28's.."
How high will the dollar blip?
With 4 Big Black Down Candles (Yearly Monthly Weekly & Daily) hanging over the dollar's head and failing to take out the falling 50 week ma in the last 10 days, some prudent dollar movers may be more pre-occupied with profit taking on blips instead of buy more dollar on dips infront of a falling knife on this last trading day of April..
Cheerios..
van Gecko 12:48 GMT April 29, 2004
if 1.1760 survive the fenzy bottom feeder's assault this week.. the odds for "Sayonara dollar..take a Siesta" will increases substantially as the market begin the month of May..
van Gecko 01:19 GMT April 29, 2004
re gold, precious metals & commodity currencies..
before everyone get all excited & hopping on the over-crowded Bear_wagon to Herbieville..
Declining Volume & Open Interest from the early April peaks while the markets are in near term retreat does not make a m/t bear market..
in non-layman speaks, its like driving a car with a leaking gas tank.. the markets are running on thin air.. out of fuel.. out of gas..
a classic & proven market contrarian rule..
van Gecko 14:39 GMT April 28, 2004
every pip at these temporary depressed major vs usd levels is worth its weight in gold.. $380 gold is a tough nugget to crack..
van Gecko 10:05 GMT April 28, 2004
A falling or rising 50 week dollar index ma always cap any m/t mid trend corrections..
At times, over/under-shoots will tease excited bull/bears into a buying/selling frenzy at/near the m/t corrective top/bottoms just prior to the m/t trend continuation reversal..
The dollar had failed for 2 consecutive weeks up at the falling 50 week ma..
more m/t freebie fx food for thought from the voodoo school of psychoanalysis..
cheerios..
"Euro had satisfied m/t price time equality objectives with its 20 pip grind under last week's low..
as for the proxy twin, levels above usd/chf 1.31 are exhaustive & not sustainable without a liquidity dive down to the 1.28's.."
How high will the dollar blip?
With 4 Big Black Down Candles (Yearly Monthly Weekly & Daily) hanging over the dollar's head and failing to take out the falling 50 week ma in the last 10 days, some prudent dollar movers may be more pre-occupied with profit taking on blips instead of buy more dollar on dips infront of a falling knife on this last trading day of April..
Cheerios..
van Gecko 12:48 GMT April 29, 2004
if 1.1760 survive the fenzy bottom feeder's assault this week.. the odds for "Sayonara dollar..take a Siesta" will increases substantially as the market begin the month of May..
van Gecko 01:19 GMT April 29, 2004
re gold, precious metals & commodity currencies..
before everyone get all excited & hopping on the over-crowded Bear_wagon to Herbieville..
Declining Volume & Open Interest from the early April peaks while the markets are in near term retreat does not make a m/t bear market..
in non-layman speaks, its like driving a car with a leaking gas tank.. the markets are running on thin air.. out of fuel.. out of gas..
a classic & proven market contrarian rule..
van Gecko 14:39 GMT April 28, 2004
every pip at these temporary depressed major vs usd levels is worth its weight in gold.. $380 gold is a tough nugget to crack..
van Gecko 10:05 GMT April 28, 2004
A falling or rising 50 week dollar index ma always cap any m/t mid trend corrections..
At times, over/under-shoots will tease excited bull/bears into a buying/selling frenzy at/near the m/t corrective top/bottoms just prior to the m/t trend continuation reversal..
The dollar had failed for 2 consecutive weeks up at the falling 50 week ma..
more m/t freebie fx food for thought from the voodoo school of psychoanalysis..
cheerios..
Tuesday, April 27, 2004
van Gecko 06:32 GMT April 27, 2004
Euro had satisfied m/t price time equality objectives with its 20 pip grind under last week's low..
as for the proxy twin, levels above usd/chf 1.31 are exhaustive & not sustainable without a liquidity dive down to the 1.28's..
the near term odds are with Q & dollar selling Sons Of Beatrice..fwiw..
cheerios..
van Gecko 08:10 GMT April 23, 2004
the near term not so obvious underlying market dynamics for the dollar looks bleak despise the prevailing 'its obvious eur/usd 1.15 is a given' sentiments.. the failure to follow through on Wednesday's dollar top is a near term exhaustive sign..
a dip from here to down to usd index 89 could wipe-out most of the recent gains by the major pairs across the board.. at 85, its off to the races again for dollar bears..
Cheerios..
Euro had satisfied m/t price time equality objectives with its 20 pip grind under last week's low..
as for the proxy twin, levels above usd/chf 1.31 are exhaustive & not sustainable without a liquidity dive down to the 1.28's..
the near term odds are with Q & dollar selling Sons Of Beatrice..fwiw..
cheerios..
van Gecko 08:10 GMT April 23, 2004
the near term not so obvious underlying market dynamics for the dollar looks bleak despise the prevailing 'its obvious eur/usd 1.15 is a given' sentiments.. the failure to follow through on Wednesday's dollar top is a near term exhaustive sign..
a dip from here to down to usd index 89 could wipe-out most of the recent gains by the major pairs across the board.. at 85, its off to the races again for dollar bears..
Cheerios..
Tuesday, April 20, 2004
van Gecko 03:34 GMT April 21, 2004
April has a long standing habit of making fools out of Euro(& grandfather DMark) bulls & bears alike..
whenever the prevailing long term trends are down, bulls in April tends turn into fools in May..
& whenever the prevailing long term trends are up, April had teased bears of all kind into a selling fenzy..
;
Never figure out why some bulls/bears act this way..may be its a Spring induced FX fever/allergy..
or may be some are under sublimal influences after years of humming Johnny Mercer & Rube Bloom's classic "Fools rush in" lyrics in the shower..
"
"Fools rush in where angels fear to tread
And so I come to you, my love, my heart above my head.
Though I see the danger there
If there's a chance for me, then I don't care
.....
Fools rush in where wise men never go
.....
Fools rush in where wise men never, never, never go
.....
Just open up your heart and let this fool rush on in
Just open up your heart because I am coming in
Open up your heart and let this fool rush in!! "
hk ab nz 0.6 07:58 GMT April 20, 2004
van Gecko 07:41 GMT April 20, 2004
Many thanks for the nice and clear m/t view on dlrcad!
GREAT and GOOD TRADE!!
van Gecko 07:41 GMT April 20, 2004
ab.. the Goose now flying near the top of it's 10 week range.. nimble flyers could buy a break of 1.36, but keep an eye open for limited follow through today.. brave upside down flyers could try selling infront of 1.36 with loose or tight stops depending on how many pips one is willing to h'iss into the wind..
long range flyers need to be patient & lookout for sustained weekly closes above 1.35 or below 1.31 for range break marching clues..
van Gecko 07:06 GMT April 20, 2004
why wait for uncle Greenie to speak tommarrow for funny dollar direction clues? the majors are again at good values levels vs the dollar here for brave near term contrarians..
on the other hand, may be keep buying inflated dollars here at its s/t cycle high will be vely rewarding when the 'trend' is so obvious to the Herbies & 1.15 euro/usd is a given to some 'me too' guru analysts.. fwiw..
April has a long standing habit of making fools out of Euro(& grandfather DMark) bulls & bears alike..
whenever the prevailing long term trends are down, bulls in April tends turn into fools in May..
& whenever the prevailing long term trends are up, April had teased bears of all kind into a selling fenzy..
;
Never figure out why some bulls/bears act this way..may be its a Spring induced FX fever/allergy..
or may be some are under sublimal influences after years of humming Johnny Mercer & Rube Bloom's classic "Fools rush in" lyrics in the shower..
"
"Fools rush in where angels fear to tread
And so I come to you, my love, my heart above my head.
Though I see the danger there
If there's a chance for me, then I don't care
.....
Fools rush in where wise men never go
.....
Fools rush in where wise men never, never, never go
.....
Just open up your heart and let this fool rush on in
Just open up your heart because I am coming in
Open up your heart and let this fool rush in!! "
hk ab nz 0.6 07:58 GMT April 20, 2004
van Gecko 07:41 GMT April 20, 2004
Many thanks for the nice and clear m/t view on dlrcad!
GREAT and GOOD TRADE!!
van Gecko 07:41 GMT April 20, 2004
ab.. the Goose now flying near the top of it's 10 week range.. nimble flyers could buy a break of 1.36, but keep an eye open for limited follow through today.. brave upside down flyers could try selling infront of 1.36 with loose or tight stops depending on how many pips one is willing to h'iss into the wind..
long range flyers need to be patient & lookout for sustained weekly closes above 1.35 or below 1.31 for range break marching clues..
van Gecko 07:06 GMT April 20, 2004
why wait for uncle Greenie to speak tommarrow for funny dollar direction clues? the majors are again at good values levels vs the dollar here for brave near term contrarians..
on the other hand, may be keep buying inflated dollars here at its s/t cycle high will be vely rewarding when the 'trend' is so obvious to the Herbies & 1.15 euro/usd is a given to some 'me too' guru analysts.. fwiw..
Monday, April 19, 2004
van Gecko 06:35 GMT April 19, 2004
Euro may be on the verge of repeating late March's 300 pip retracement up to 1.2390.. however, since not all retracements are born equal, the underlying market dynamics may push it up over 1.24 this time..
with 1.19 acting as a baseline, a near term weekly close over 1.2150 may see long time & born again euro_topians doing bull dances in the streets of Barcelona..
Cheerios..
Euro may be on the verge of repeating late March's 300 pip retracement up to 1.2390.. however, since not all retracements are born equal, the underlying market dynamics may push it up over 1.24 this time..
with 1.19 acting as a baseline, a near term weekly close over 1.2150 may see long time & born again euro_topians doing bull dances in the streets of Barcelona..
Cheerios..
Thursday, April 15, 2004
van Gecko 06:10 GMT April 15, 2004
AUD/USD is a buy at good discounts here for the M/T near the bottom of an embedded s/t corrective consolidation range.. may be just prior to the resumption of the climb up to .8000 & beyond..
trading against a M/T up trend after the pair had already undergone a multi-figure correction down to the bottom of a strong rising channel is a common & risky fx practice.. a buy high/sell low accident waiting to happen..
*
The same scenario applys for EURO..
simple in words, but difficult to practice under real time stimulus for many.. fwiw..
AUD/USD is a buy at good discounts here for the M/T near the bottom of an embedded s/t corrective consolidation range.. may be just prior to the resumption of the climb up to .8000 & beyond..
trading against a M/T up trend after the pair had already undergone a multi-figure correction down to the bottom of a strong rising channel is a common & risky fx practice.. a buy high/sell low accident waiting to happen..
*
The same scenario applys for EURO..
simple in words, but difficult to practice under real time stimulus for many.. fwiw..
Wednesday, April 14, 2004
Malaga boqueron 13:25 GMT April 14, 2004
van Gecko, re EU and it's crosses. Agree EU looking good today on the crosses, but key is what sort of bounce will it be. On a little further out horizon, things don't look as good for EU.
van Gecko 12:56 GMT April 14, 2004
Malaga boqueron.. fwiw the EU on virtually all the EUUS lead crosses are in the process of painting long daily Candles after an extened period to the downside.. sustained closes at/near these present levels will bring out all sort of faithful Candle following bulls tommorrow..
btw, usd/chf is not in agreement with its cousins 'strong dollar' moves..
Malaga boqueron 12:38 GMT April 14, 2004
van Gecko, Good to see you too. What worries me about EUUS is the EU on virtually all the crosses.
van Gecko 12:30 GMT April 14, 2004
Malaga boqueron.. good to see you.. you might be right.. while sub 1.1900 levels can't be precluded on this down leg.. m/t elephants must do their accumulation by scaling in long marching cargos at various 'value zones' with 'cat & mouse' tactics..
Malaga boqueron 12:18 GMT April 14, 2004
van Gecko, re elephant bargain hunters might be a little early. The longer it stays near lo's the greater the odds for the pair to continue down into the end of week. I can see a rally beginning early next week
van Gecko 12:04 GMT April 14, 2004
elephant bargain hunters must be saying "thank you vely much for 1.1900" to the market..
a break above 1.1950 should initiate some level 1 short squeeze.. a half session close above 1.1970 would put 1.2050..1.2150 back in the picture..
the guide dogs are flying & firing on all cylinders today..
The longer this 1.1900 line stays intact, the more doubts will start to set in the mind of momentum bears..
Cheerios..
van Gecko 07:09 GMT April 14, 2004
ab.. yep.. looks like some savvy long marching money players are buying euro & it's crosses at/near major swing lows here..
van Gecko 04:11 GMT April 14, 2004
the odds for euro to break 1.18/19 near term is slim to none.. the near term market psycho is similiar to last September when euro corrected to 1.08 & all the 'Johnny come latelys' jumped on the 1.05 bottom feeding bearwagon..
The 1000 pip drop from the recent 1.29 high had been vely rewarding for all short marching Sons Of Beatrice..
Cheerios..
van Gecko, re EU and it's crosses. Agree EU looking good today on the crosses, but key is what sort of bounce will it be. On a little further out horizon, things don't look as good for EU.
van Gecko 12:56 GMT April 14, 2004
Malaga boqueron.. fwiw the EU on virtually all the EUUS lead crosses are in the process of painting long daily Candles after an extened period to the downside.. sustained closes at/near these present levels will bring out all sort of faithful Candle following bulls tommorrow..
btw, usd/chf is not in agreement with its cousins 'strong dollar' moves..
Malaga boqueron 12:38 GMT April 14, 2004
van Gecko, Good to see you too. What worries me about EUUS is the EU on virtually all the crosses.
van Gecko 12:30 GMT April 14, 2004
Malaga boqueron.. good to see you.. you might be right.. while sub 1.1900 levels can't be precluded on this down leg.. m/t elephants must do their accumulation by scaling in long marching cargos at various 'value zones' with 'cat & mouse' tactics..
Malaga boqueron 12:18 GMT April 14, 2004
van Gecko, re elephant bargain hunters might be a little early. The longer it stays near lo's the greater the odds for the pair to continue down into the end of week. I can see a rally beginning early next week
van Gecko 12:04 GMT April 14, 2004
elephant bargain hunters must be saying "thank you vely much for 1.1900" to the market..
a break above 1.1950 should initiate some level 1 short squeeze.. a half session close above 1.1970 would put 1.2050..1.2150 back in the picture..
the guide dogs are flying & firing on all cylinders today..
The longer this 1.1900 line stays intact, the more doubts will start to set in the mind of momentum bears..
Cheerios..
van Gecko 07:09 GMT April 14, 2004
ab.. yep.. looks like some savvy long marching money players are buying euro & it's crosses at/near major swing lows here..
van Gecko 04:11 GMT April 14, 2004
the odds for euro to break 1.18/19 near term is slim to none.. the near term market psycho is similiar to last September when euro corrected to 1.08 & all the 'Johnny come latelys' jumped on the 1.05 bottom feeding bearwagon..
The 1000 pip drop from the recent 1.29 high had been vely rewarding for all short marching Sons Of Beatrice..
Cheerios..
Tuesday, April 06, 2004
Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:12 GMT April 6, 2004
van Gecko good advice have a good one. GT
van Gecko 05:10 GMT April 6, 2004
"Ching Ming/Full moon battle of Euro 1.2000" in progress.. opposing dollar camps are having a rare Asian dog fight here..
Euro 1.1980 Usd/chf 1.3100 lines are tough nuts to crack on a 1st assault basis.. Sons Of Beatrice targeting 1.1800 may need to re-group from higher grounds..
Cheerios..
van Gecko 15:00 GMT April 2, 2004
After teasing the herd of eager europhiles for the last few sessions patient Sons Of Beatrice had resume their merry short marching of Euro to 1.20 ..
Cheerios..
van Gecko 08:02 GMT March 31, 2004
inorder to have a shot at 1.25/26 Euro needs to poke its head above 1.2260/80 & do a daily close above 1.24..
'Sons Of Beatrice ' of various size & temperments are stacked from here up to 1.25 to ambush eager europhiles..fwiw..
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
van Gecko good advice have a good one. GT
van Gecko 05:10 GMT April 6, 2004
"Ching Ming/Full moon battle of Euro 1.2000" in progress.. opposing dollar camps are having a rare Asian dog fight here..
Euro 1.1980 Usd/chf 1.3100 lines are tough nuts to crack on a 1st assault basis.. Sons Of Beatrice targeting 1.1800 may need to re-group from higher grounds..
Cheerios..
van Gecko 15:00 GMT April 2, 2004
After teasing the herd of eager europhiles for the last few sessions patient Sons Of Beatrice had resume their merry short marching of Euro to 1.20 ..
Cheerios..
van Gecko 08:02 GMT March 31, 2004
inorder to have a shot at 1.25/26 Euro needs to poke its head above 1.2260/80 & do a daily close above 1.24..
'Sons Of Beatrice ' of various size & temperments are stacked from here up to 1.25 to ambush eager europhiles..fwiw..
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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