Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Friday, October 31, 2008
USDX:
Dollar Index 3rd consecutive monthly close above 200 day ma supported by a diverging daily Golden Cross..
trade safe & hoard cheerios..
USDX Daily
___________________________________________________________________________________
re. Buy low and Sell high with levelled odds
At 4:47 PM, Anonymous said...
Hello Van Gecko,
I have been ccy trading for five yrs -all the time wondering "When am I going to have the confidence to bet big!". Often times throughtout my life I have intuitions of how things should be but there is no reflection of my sentiment in the larger relational reality.
I have always fumbled the ball shorting. I found the problem in immediate gratification. Slowly I have "sensed" that the right set up but I felt too "out there" in what I had to do.
Your perspicacity has given me the inkling that I may be on the right track here. Your gracious effort to provide the chart sealed the deal.
Thank you for sharing your insight in what is so often a hostile and "in your face" environment where I would have probably given up.
The best to you - sean
Beijing hoho 08:20 GMT October 31, 2008
Buy low and Sell high with levelled odds: Reply
Thank you very much for your post!
Dollar Index 3rd consecutive monthly close above 200 day ma supported by a diverging daily Golden Cross..
trade safe & hoard cheerios..
USDX Daily___________________________________________________________________________________
re. Buy low and Sell high with levelled odds
At 4:47 PM, Anonymous said...
Hello Van Gecko,
I have been ccy trading for five yrs -all the time wondering "When am I going to have the confidence to bet big!". Often times throughtout my life I have intuitions of how things should be but there is no reflection of my sentiment in the larger relational reality.
I have always fumbled the ball shorting. I found the problem in immediate gratification. Slowly I have "sensed" that the right set up but I felt too "out there" in what I had to do.
Your perspicacity has given me the inkling that I may be on the right track here. Your gracious effort to provide the chart sealed the deal.
Thank you for sharing your insight in what is so often a hostile and "in your face" environment where I would have probably given up.
The best to you - sean
Beijing hoho 08:20 GMT October 31, 2008
Buy low and Sell high with levelled odds: Reply
Thank you very much for your post!
Labels: USD
van Gecko 08:02 GMT October 31, 2008
Buy low and Sell high with levelled odds
Buy low and Sell high with the herds
We are influenced by what we see with a tendency to anchor our views on viewable chart prices as normal.. and since we can't see potential continuation prices beyond the current viewable chart area, most of us want to buy the current lows and sell the current highs with the assumption that prices will eventually return to past normal levels..
Stayin' Alive & Level the odds
Under the current strong market bias, longing AUDUSD from the recent .60 lows with or without money management practices expose one to eventual risk of ruin.. a 800 pip windfall in 2 days will only encourage & re-enforce path to future disaster habits..
Learn to be patient & let the market confirm the bias prior to placing bets.. start small & don't be afraid to add up with the bias..
ie. AUD @.68 is still contained within the strong down channel & should only be treated as Sell On Bounce retracement until the market can sustain multiple daily closes above the channel for a potential trend reversal.. over time, the survival odds are stacked for buy low and sell high with the prevailing bias vs indiscriminate buy low and sell high hoping for a reversion to mean..
Don't worry about missing out on all those pips in hindsight as there are always opportunities for the patient mindsets in this never ending game..
AUD Daily chart
___________________________________________________________________________________
Getting on the train against the herd
While major trends are only evident in hindsight, there is a highly probable system for getting on an ongoing trend;
"Only bet in the same direction when the 21 crosses the 50ma in the daily chart after extended consolidation"..
The only drawback for this simplistic beauty is that one must learn to play against the herd by overcoming the "too cheap/too expensive Fx Fear Syndrome", possess a counter-human trading mindset to sit & wait for the set-up, & don't be afraid to hop on the train once it is pulling out of the station.. ie. Euro breaking the 1.53 long term support levels..
Euro daily chart
___________________________________________________________________________________
If the majority are consistent losers playing with a traditional mindset then the minority with an edge must be playing with a contrarian hand..
level the odds, & trade to "Stay Alive"..
Buy low and Sell high with levelled odds
Buy low and Sell high with the herds
We are influenced by what we see with a tendency to anchor our views on viewable chart prices as normal.. and since we can't see potential continuation prices beyond the current viewable chart area, most of us want to buy the current lows and sell the current highs with the assumption that prices will eventually return to past normal levels..
Stayin' Alive & Level the odds
Under the current strong market bias, longing AUDUSD from the recent .60 lows with or without money management practices expose one to eventual risk of ruin.. a 800 pip windfall in 2 days will only encourage & re-enforce path to future disaster habits..
Learn to be patient & let the market confirm the bias prior to placing bets.. start small & don't be afraid to add up with the bias..
ie. AUD @.68 is still contained within the strong down channel & should only be treated as Sell On Bounce retracement until the market can sustain multiple daily closes above the channel for a potential trend reversal.. over time, the survival odds are stacked for buy low and sell high with the prevailing bias vs indiscriminate buy low and sell high hoping for a reversion to mean..
Don't worry about missing out on all those pips in hindsight as there are always opportunities for the patient mindsets in this never ending game..
AUD Daily chart___________________________________________________________________________________
Getting on the train against the herd
While major trends are only evident in hindsight, there is a highly probable system for getting on an ongoing trend;
"Only bet in the same direction when the 21 crosses the 50ma in the daily chart after extended consolidation"..
The only drawback for this simplistic beauty is that one must learn to play against the herd by overcoming the "too cheap/too expensive Fx Fear Syndrome", possess a counter-human trading mindset to sit & wait for the set-up, & don't be afraid to hop on the train once it is pulling out of the station.. ie. Euro breaking the 1.53 long term support levels..
Euro daily chart___________________________________________________________________________________
If the majority are consistent losers playing with a traditional mindset then the minority with an edge must be playing with a contrarian hand..
level the odds, & trade to "Stay Alive"..
Labels: USD
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
van Gecko 08:08 GMT October 21, 2008
re. market volatility & wrong-way bets
EUR/GBP flashing Fall house cleaning signs after 6 months of setback from .8000.. the cross & Gold seems to be setting up for a year end "Southern Comfort Race" to clean out some stale longs..
103 beats per minute tricks of the trade to help jump-start a stopped heart & navigate trading during these volatile times.. meanwhile, another $2 Billion wrong-way bet bites the dust..cheerios
re. market volatility & wrong-way bets
EUR/GBP flashing Fall house cleaning signs after 6 months of setback from .8000.. the cross & Gold seems to be setting up for a year end "Southern Comfort Race" to clean out some stale longs..
103 beats per minute tricks of the trade to help jump-start a stopped heart & navigate trading during these volatile times.. meanwhile, another $2 Billion wrong-way bet bites the dust..cheerios
Friday, October 17, 2008
van Gecko 00:38 GMT October 17, 2008
Gold below 850 retarget 750..below is another 100 dollar "catch-up with the Jones" range expansion down to 650.. a market that can't stay up on "good news" is living on borrowed time..
"Stayin' Alive".. Bug Gees' Tricks of the Trade?
Gold below 850 retarget 750..below is another 100 dollar "catch-up with the Jones" range expansion down to 650.. a market that can't stay up on "good news" is living on borrowed time..
"Stayin' Alive".. Bug Gees' Tricks of the Trade?
Labels: Gold
Friday, October 10, 2008
Syd 18:09 GMT October 10, 2008
Gold Smashed - Nowhere left To Hide :
The headlong dive in markets to raise cash has finally hit the last refuge - gold. Gold has collapsed from $914.50 at the COMEX open to $845, dragging AUD/USD down with it - last at 0.6398, having chalked up 0.6359 at its nadir.
Oil is off $9 at $77.60; the Dow down 6.4%; AUD/JPY down almost 5 big figs over the past 24- hrs; down 4.35 big figs from the NY session high. NZD/USD is at 0.5955, NZD/JPY is off 1.5 big figs over the past 24-hrs, off 1.7 big figs from the NY session high. Its ugly out there
reuters
Gold Smashed - Nowhere left To Hide :
The headlong dive in markets to raise cash has finally hit the last refuge - gold. Gold has collapsed from $914.50 at the COMEX open to $845, dragging AUD/USD down with it - last at 0.6398, having chalked up 0.6359 at its nadir.
Oil is off $9 at $77.60; the Dow down 6.4%; AUD/JPY down almost 5 big figs over the past 24- hrs; down 4.35 big figs from the NY session high. NZD/USD is at 0.5955, NZD/JPY is off 1.5 big figs over the past 24-hrs, off 1.7 big figs from the NY session high. Its ugly out there
reuters
Labels: Gold
Monday, October 06, 2008
van Gecko 00:09 GMT October 7, 2008
Quito Valdez 23:47 GMT October 6, 2008// may be some are still looking for "shady spots" over @ the other side -->> of the mountain.. waiting for the Dow to bounce so they can get more value for their money.. :)
Quito Valdez 23:47 GMT October 6, 2008
van Gecko 23:26 GMT October 6, 2008 That's the big question...where's it going?
van Gecko 23:26 GMT October 6, 2008
Dow dropped nearly 1300 point since last Wednesday & Gold can't even take out last Wednesday's high.. where have all those risk averse flight to quality goldies gone?
AZUSA 4x-ed 21:42 GMT October 6, 2008 @_@
Gold update in the archive..
GVI Forex Jay 22:06 GMT October 6, 2008
AZUSA 4x-ed 21:42 GMT October 6, 2008 - you have not been on GVI for over two years and prior to that, only for a brief time. Not sure therefore how you can make any statement about GVI and therefore surprised at the comments.
AZUSA 4x-ed 21:42 GMT October 6, 2008
Re: GVI Side --- Moon, although I appreciate your loyalty to GVI, I cannot say that I share the same feeling about that >>> side of the forum. Sure, you will have the benefit of a few decent posters, but my overall experience with the ‘GVI Side’ cannot even marginally justify the membership renewal cost.
If access to GVI has improved your trading or added to your bottom line, then more power to you. Sharing some concrete examples of ‘when and how’ would be more than welcome. Otherwise, my advice to the uninitiated is to use the $$ for a few worthwhile market books.
Alaska Moon 20:56 GMT October 6, 2008
Just a thought while the forum is not so busy. Anyone who is really serious about trading should subscribe to the GVI side. Both forums run side by side, and the GVI side has a lot of info that we miss on this side.
It seems that most of our professional traders post on the GVI side.
Moon
re. Gold update
At 5:03 PM, Anonymous said...
Many thanks my good Sir! I can only hope that you will continue to share your views and great ideas.
May these historical market dislocations award you to the fullest!
Mumbai NS 12:12 GMT October 6, 2008
Gud perspective there mate
van Gecko 11:20 GMT October 6, 2008
re. Gold, an accident waiting to happen?:
//AZUSA 4x-ed 19:20 GMT October 3, 2008// hope you're fine..
Long term trends rarely reverse quickly & markets often over-shoot & tease convictions with counter moves over a period of time prior to making any sustained turn.. Reacting to market warning signs with good risk adjusted analytics is an integral part of all long & medium term strategic play.. Since all of us are only transient player in a never ending game where major tops & bottoms are only evident in hindsight, one should be content with placing the right bets on part of a move instead of kicking our behind over all those "lost pips" looking at the charts afterward..
update on Gold under the current market dynamics
AZUSA 4x-ed 19:20 GMT October 3, 2008
Gold, an accident waiting to happen?:
Our Porkchoptitist, Van Gecko, wrote an interesting piece in January 2007 on the correlation between gold and copper. At that time, his conclusion was that "underlying market dynamics points to an accident.."
Not being critical at all of that miscalculation VG! Just simply wondering if you are ready to visit that idea under the current market dynamics?
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
Quito Valdez 23:47 GMT October 6, 2008// may be some are still looking for "shady spots" over @ the other side -->> of the mountain.. waiting for the Dow to bounce so they can get more value for their money.. :)
Quito Valdez 23:47 GMT October 6, 2008
van Gecko 23:26 GMT October 6, 2008 That's the big question...where's it going?
van Gecko 23:26 GMT October 6, 2008
Dow dropped nearly 1300 point since last Wednesday & Gold can't even take out last Wednesday's high.. where have all those risk averse flight to quality goldies gone?
AZUSA 4x-ed 21:42 GMT October 6, 2008 @_@
Gold update in the archive..
GVI Forex Jay 22:06 GMT October 6, 2008
AZUSA 4x-ed 21:42 GMT October 6, 2008 - you have not been on GVI for over two years and prior to that, only for a brief time. Not sure therefore how you can make any statement about GVI and therefore surprised at the comments.
AZUSA 4x-ed 21:42 GMT October 6, 2008
Re: GVI Side --- Moon, although I appreciate your loyalty to GVI, I cannot say that I share the same feeling about that >>> side of the forum. Sure, you will have the benefit of a few decent posters, but my overall experience with the ‘GVI Side’ cannot even marginally justify the membership renewal cost.
If access to GVI has improved your trading or added to your bottom line, then more power to you. Sharing some concrete examples of ‘when and how’ would be more than welcome. Otherwise, my advice to the uninitiated is to use the $$ for a few worthwhile market books.
Alaska Moon 20:56 GMT October 6, 2008
Just a thought while the forum is not so busy. Anyone who is really serious about trading should subscribe to the GVI side. Both forums run side by side, and the GVI side has a lot of info that we miss on this side.
It seems that most of our professional traders post on the GVI side.
Moon
re. Gold update
At 5:03 PM, Anonymous said...
Many thanks my good Sir! I can only hope that you will continue to share your views and great ideas.
May these historical market dislocations award you to the fullest!
Mumbai NS 12:12 GMT October 6, 2008
Gud perspective there mate
van Gecko 11:20 GMT October 6, 2008
re. Gold, an accident waiting to happen?:
//AZUSA 4x-ed 19:20 GMT October 3, 2008// hope you're fine..
Long term trends rarely reverse quickly & markets often over-shoot & tease convictions with counter moves over a period of time prior to making any sustained turn.. Reacting to market warning signs with good risk adjusted analytics is an integral part of all long & medium term strategic play.. Since all of us are only transient player in a never ending game where major tops & bottoms are only evident in hindsight, one should be content with placing the right bets on part of a move instead of kicking our behind over all those "lost pips" looking at the charts afterward..
update on Gold under the current market dynamics
AZUSA 4x-ed 19:20 GMT October 3, 2008
Gold, an accident waiting to happen?:
Our Porkchoptitist, Van Gecko, wrote an interesting piece in January 2007 on the correlation between gold and copper. At that time, his conclusion was that "underlying market dynamics points to an accident.."
Not being critical at all of that miscalculation VG! Just simply wondering if you are ready to visit that idea under the current market dynamics?
Labels: Gold
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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