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Friday, October 29, 2004

hk ab 01:02 GMT October 30, 2004
The eur can't close above 1.2930 must have disappointed some members in the hk family.

However, I agree very much to listen to Gecko this time, to all hk family.

Sydney gvm 14:25 GMT October 29, 2004
van Gecko 14:19
mate - am signing up for a discretionary account as we speak - this systematic stuff is driving me nuts (pays the bills tho) - must obey the stop - feel like a robot
watched the 84.80 come and go - censored was I tempted !!

van Gecko 14:19 GMT October 29, 2004
Sydney gvm 13:41.. good job matey, be patient..
as much as I like to see the Dollar take out 84.50 in one try, this weeks quick test of 84.80 was a great opportunity to take some profits & reload from higher grounds.. there'll be plenty of pips for all the Dollar bears on a clean break of 84.50..;)
Cheerios..


Sydney gvm 13:41 GMT October 29, 2004
van Gecko 10:29
USDX bounce to 86.50 - ? IMHO - in ya dreams buddy
Me short from 88.03 and from long analysis of charts cannot see your bulls eating them cherrios you talking about

Sydney EM. 13:34 GMT October 29, 2004
van Gecko 10:29
thanks for that, coupled with the overbought nature of the market next week could see some USD strength many thanks


van Gecko 10:29 GMT October 29, 2004
Sydney EM 23:06.. despite the near term bullish exuberances over Euro breaking above the 1.25 dollar cap, the Dollar need a bounce after a 2 week 200 point dive to generate more m/t money liquidity for the pending take out of Dollar index 84.50, the multi year support for the Dollar & the last line of defence for the shell-shocked Dollar bull camp..
prudent bears who had took profits recently will be looking to reload on bounces infront of 86.50 for the eventual break of 84.50.. a clean break of the line will be the dawn of another new leg on the Dollars long term march down to Purgatory..
Euro below 1.27 near term will buy more consolidation time for the Dollar & could turn some dollar bull campers into a bunch of happy Cheerio munchers..


Sydney EM 23:06 GMT October 28, 2004
Van Gecko bearing in mind your view couple of weeks ago,are we still ok for this Correction higher on the USD or is it over yet ?

Global-View Research 22:52 GMT October 28, 2004
Sell Dollars Or Get Out Of The Way (FXA)

First of all this is not about me. What do I mean? I mean my being bearish on the dollar is a view...impersonal. It is the preponderance of evidence for selling dollars and not some attempt at aggrandizement that motivates my take on the dollar...See full update in our research section

Calabash TarHeel 18:58 GMT October 27, 2004
Moscow Hawk 18:44 GMT October 27, 2004
Hoping you might pop in again. Just wanted to say thanks for your post of the 25th. Along with thanks to Noody Girl, BC and Van Gecko, sold Euro over 1.28 three days in a row. Very good advice. Very profitable.
Thanks again to all of you.
Good Luck

Monday, October 25, 2004

london 18:34 GMT October 25, 2004

``The ducks are all lined up against the dollar,'' said ABN's McMahon.

Bloomberg.

london 15:37 GMT October 25, 2004
Perth WTR for now its overbought a retracement due (overdue) , all is needed is a excellent bit of data and the USD could pick up steam, not permanent but can be very unconfortable for those still holding the opposite direction - I prefer the view of BC and Gecko

Perth WTR 15:29 GMT October 25, 2004
london 15:22 GMT October 25, 2004

the usd bear rally might be halted temporarily but whether there is significant retracement is still in question and what size....consolidation of 100-150 pips from today's most extreme price is all i can see, it is gonna be frustrating for those trapped earlier as by the time they almost get out of trouble, the rally has started again, that's gonna be the scenario
prior to us election there should be tight range forming too so again consolidation area of 150 pips max is all i can think of

london 15:22 GMT October 25, 2004
Cairo MDR 15:05 GMT there you go from earlier today

"van Gecko 01:04 GMT October 25, 2004
Perth.. its time to take some dollar profits off the table..
the Dollar is going down.. but break away gaps don't usually take place after the Dollar had already tanked 200 points from the 87 neckline.. Dollar longkies are being squeezed in the left nutz by Asian sharkies..

"09:09 GMT October 22, 2004
the Europeans curriencies had now level shifted vs the Dollar..
bulls & bears can expect some near term 'blip & tease consolidation' by the Dollar prior to pushing down to the next zzz'iesta leg......"
cheerios..

shanghai bc 00:16 GMT October 25, 2004

Dollar is highly likely to see the new lows for the year in coming weeks. But for short-term,it is now in oversold territory around Usd/Chf 1.20 line. Expecting some return dances around that line for a few times before Dollar resumes its fall of another leg till it is oversold medium-term. Fwiw.
"

Cairo MDR 15:05 GMT October 25, 2004
london 15:02 GMT October 25, 2004
nope but can u refresh my memory

london 15:02 GMT October 25, 2004
Cairo MDR rarely do you see Van Gecko talking about a retracement for the USD and BC confirmed this

london 15:00 GMT October 25, 2004
Cairo MDR If it does break , you will see the Correction Shanghai BC and Gecko were talking about today

Cairo MDR 14:57 GMT October 25, 2004
oil 54.30, are we gonna see the breakof 54 today?

shanghai bc 01:34 GMT October 25, 2004

Large corporate hedgers in Asia are not as sensitive as CBs or hedge funds or bank forex folks..But they have a large ammunition.. They have been believeing in range for the year with Eur/usd 1.25 as their ceiling..Now the trend is moving and they are now forced to go along with the move and they are heavyweights..Many more will join later making it a decent medium-term move..But as usual they are mostly late comers..Fwiw.


Eilat Dolphin 01:10 GMT October 25, 2004
Van Gecko/ Tell us when you see the Euro panzerdivisionnen camping on up there on the Great Bear lake...

Perth WTR 01:07 GMT October 25, 2004
van Gecko 01:04 GMT October 25, 2004

thanks mate, will take 50% now, stops trailing


van Gecko 01:04 GMT October 25, 2004
Perth.. its time to take some dollar profits off the table..
the Dollar is going down.. but break away gaps don't usually take place after the Dollar had already tanked 200 points from the 87 neckline.. Dollar longkies are being squeezed in the left nutz by Asian sharkies..

"09:09 GMT October 22, 2004
the Europeans curriencies had now level shifted vs the Dollar..
bulls & bears can expect some near term 'blip & tease consolidation' by the Dollar prior to pushing down to the next zzz'iesta leg......"

cheerios..


Perth WTR 00:41 GMT October 25, 2004
forget about extremes, there is no extreme now....it is a crash...NY session later we will see more of this...as soon as equity market opens Dow, Nasdaq, they all crash

Perth WTR 00:33 GMT October 25, 2004
i think everyone would expect usd/chf to bottom out now but i say no it wont happen yet....1.19 and lower can be easily seen due to all the rush to buy, forget about doing contra trades at least for today


shanghai bc 00:16 GMT October 25, 2004

Dollar is highly likely to see the new lows for the year in coming weeks. But for short-term,it is now in oversold territory around Usd/Chf 1.20 line. Expecting some return dances around that line for a few times before Dollar resumes its fall of another leg till it is oversold medium-term. Fwiw.


Perth WTR 23:53 GMT October 24, 2004
why won't people learn from past mistakes? it happens many times year by year, sep-oct-nov sell dollar! it is a clear range breakout and yet people still hope for reversal, forget it i say this rally in euro is self-sustaining, there are plenty speculators down there 1.24-1.25 even under 1.2640 now hoping for a bit of retracement to get out quickly so everytime euro is approaching that level it will just be bought again

weekly charts suggest more evidence, this is the start only, will accelerate starting this week and we have seen just a few hours into the week

LDN. 23:53 GMT October 24, 2004
Gold Coast Martin, will you be taking profits on your short aud 77 before it reaches that level. ?

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 23:52 GMT October 24, 2004
Anyone else insist they don't see the E/$ breakout happening? GT all...we're headed one way or the other to 1.30 soon enough then to 1.35 or higher around Christmas.
I hope everyone's longed the rogue, what more can I say?


Perth WTR 23:42 GMT October 24, 2004
keep selling dollar, there is no way it will come back, it is a sell-off..crash
just look at dollar index, potentially break-out gap today....it is just gonna accelerate down thru 85 level easily and never look back again

euro is 1.29 by friday, we won't see 1.26 anymore this week and many more months to come


hk ab 23:47 GMT October 24, 2004
nt, waken up to see your long cad limit yet?

hk ab 08:08 GMT October 23, 2004
I seldom have time to read gvi recently due to the daily work.
For cad, I think Gecko is the winner.
Your suggest agree with his temp. bottom at 1.22. GT.

hong kong nt 07:23 GMT October 23, 2004
AB -- what do you think of buying usd/cad at 1.2260/70? good trades to you..

Friday, October 22, 2004

Singapore Sfx 10:12 GMT October 22, 2004
tks van Gecko .. cheers.

van Gecko 09:56 GMT October 22, 2004
Singapore Sfx.. if you're short & happy, run a tight 100 pip trail stop & try taking some off down at 1.2200/50.. still not vely nice to go long with Euro having caught up & breaking the 6 month range..
cheers..

Singapore Sfx 09:41 GMT October 22, 2004
van Gecko ... Any extreme usdcad downside tgts from here pls ? tia.


van Gecko 09:35 GMT October 22, 2004
Pecs Andras.. Dollaryen breaking 109 had added fuel & credibility to euro's break of the 6 month range.. may see some bounce infront of 107/106.50 after diving for a month from 112, but accidents can always happen if the dollar decides to make a beeline down south..(ie. ala DollarCanada)

Pecs Andras 09:14 GMT October 22, 2004
van Gecko 09:09 GMT October 22, 2004
How about dollar/yen? Do you still see it as a buy?


van Gecko 09:09 GMT October 22, 2004
the Europeans curriencies had now level shifted vs the Dollar..
bulls & bears can expect some near term 'blip & tease consolidation' by the Dollar prior to pushing down to the next zzz'iesta leg..
that eccentric old fella Gbp saying good buy to those sub 1.80 summer levels had now attracted additional players waiting to buy dips infront of 1.81 to join ranks with her Majesty's loyal soldiers on their merry long march back to the year highs..
cheerios..

Wednesday, October 20, 2004

prague viktor 08:31 GMT October 20, 2004
van Gecko ....you were right mate ..it was the end last friday G/L G/T


van Gecko 08:24 GMT October 20, 2004
Dollaryen breaking 109 adds fuel & credibility to euro's break of the 6 month range..
Speculative Positioning Index is no holy grail, its the size of the deal that count as theres no democracy in fx.. there will always be some lucky specs to tag along the back of elephants for the ride in any trend but the majority of market participants are trend contrarians.. fwiw
cheerios..


Ldn 07:41 GMT October 20, 2004
Latest reading on the bank's Speculative Positioning Index shows EUR specs holding net long positions at 70% of the biggest long in the last year , I suppose market waiting for it to get to 100%

Friday, October 15, 2004

nyc jk 14:09 GMT October 15, 2004
cheers Gecko, nice calls.

van Gecko 14:05 GMT October 15, 2004
"03:29 GMT October 15, 2004
Kiwi City, NZ Air Press Oct 15 7:11 AM -- New Zealand Dollar flight to .7100 update:
after lifting off from the .6450 intermediate attractor flight pad last month, the recent blast above .6700 had kicked in additional turtle power to fuel the high flying Kiwi. The next intermediate attractor along the geometric trajectory to .7100 is .6880
Looks like the New Zealand Dollar may be the 2nd major pair to take out the Dollar's year low after the front running Canadian Dollar. Nzd/Usd last quoted at .6828"


next minor attractor above .6880 is up at .6938..

jk.. don't know where mom came from, but mama bull & her C9 friends seems to be pulling off some good trades lately..

nyc jk 13:37 GMT October 15, 2004
Freudian slip Gecko? appears to be the same person anyway.

van Gecko 13:33 GMT October 15, 2004
Gold making a beeline for $430.. Dollar @ 87.30 going sub 87.. the little Dollar Chf on verge of saying Good bye to uncle Sammy..
glad to be of help ab.. cheerios..


hk mom 12:44 GMT October 15, 2004
euro bulls, don't take profit too early.
With gecko's help, fx made easy.

Sofia rocco 11:08 GMT October 15, 2004
Gecko - thank u. GL>


van Gecko 10:19 GMT October 15, 2004
rocco.. 1.82/84 s/t, 1.88/92 m/t
theres market lagging underlying shortie KITA kinetics building beneath her Majesty's 'obvious weakness'.. cheers

Sofia rocco 09:39 GMT October 15, 2004
Gecko - what's your target for cable? TIA


van Gecko 09:14 GMT October 15, 2004
Good day viktor.. don't know if we are looking to the break today.. but some food for thought in addition to my 08:13 'Fractal/elephant' takes as we head into New York;
- the Dollar is teetering on the 87.50 precipice of a multi month compression formation for weeks now..
- complacent top picking specs are short (& bleeding) in Euro & its twin guide dogs (eur/gbp & eur/jpy)..
- stocks are exhibiting "Cold_Feet_titist" as the market approaches the 17th anniversary of Black Monday..
cheerios..
ok sam.. you are only looking for a few pips.. thanks


slv sam 08:48 GMT October 15, 2004
Gecko/
watching price action not only euro but other majors against US$ tell me today probability is us$ going to be strong...that is for today! but I still belive we are going to visit 129 again before year end!!GT

prague viktor 08:45 GMT October 15, 2004
van Gecko 08:13 GMT October 15, 2004: G.daay mate(this is the end) are looking to the break today mate..G/L G/T

van Gecko 08:42 GMT October 15, 2004
hello sam.. hope all is well.. why is e/$ a BIG sell today? thanks

slv sam 08:24 GMT October 15, 2004
van Gecko 08:13 GMT /
but for today e/$ is big SELL.GT


van Gecko 08:13 GMT October 15, 2004
Yesterday's up thrust Daily Buy Fractal from a spike low was the 3rd consecutive week that Euro had tested the 1.24 multi month 'barrier'.. daily & weekly charts suggests m/t elephant bulls had took up camp above the 1.22 line since the middle of September, happily buying all the dips near the 21ma's..
will the market be humming the Doors lyric "The End" soon?
"This is the end, Beautiful friend
This is the end, My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end.."


hk mom 06:46 GMT October 15, 2004
Confirm to buy more nzd with gecko's flight.


van Gecko 03:29 GMT October 15, 2004
Kiwi City, NZ Air Press Oct 15 7:11 AM -- New Zealand Dollar flight to .7100 update:
after lifting off from the .6450 intermediate attractor flight pad last month, the recent blast above .6700 had kicked in additional turtle power to fuel the high flying Kiwi. The next intermediate attractor along the geometric trajectory to .7100 is .6880
Looks like the New Zealand Dollar may be the 2nd major pair to take out the Dollar's year low after the front running Canadian Dollar. Nzd/Usd last quoted at .6828

Friday, October 08, 2004

Eilat Dolphin 14:44 GMT October 8, 2004
Gecko/ Right, usdcad felt like I was swimming all across Goose bay with icebergs biggers than Hiltons befalling upon me.

SanFrancisco TG 14:44 GMT October 8, 2004
Gecko - fully agree haha. $CAD is below its January 2004 lows now.

van Gecko 14:39 GMT October 8, 2004
TG.. not a vely nice day to be h'issing away pips against the wind.. 20 pip stops are being eaten.. the meats are above 1.2450.. combined with buying from "Bail On Dippers", the market could be self feeding here..

Dolphin.. spending lotsa relaxing days under the fadding summer sun here.. hows the weather in beautiful Eilat ?
still shedding the pounds with your lean meat Goose diet ?


SanFrancisco TG 14:14 GMT October 8, 2004
Gecko - Thank you, thats what I thought you meant haha. In the end, I think Euro will not clear 1.2450, the US unemployment figure remains at 5.4%, which is better than the 1970's, 1980's, and is consistent with the 1990's levels. So the net result is the gains are not as swift as many would like, but after 911 who could realistically expect better?

Eilat Dolphin 13:59 GMT October 8, 2004
Gecko/ Relax, another ten pips or so, and time'll be ripe to defend the $.
After the news...?

van Gecko 13:52 GMT October 8, 2004
TG.. imo this is turning out to be a No Fun Party friday for the Dollar.. cheers

SanFrancisco TG 13:45 GMT October 8, 2004
Gecko - Are you implying $ regaining the bid or continue to be offered? TIA

van Gecko 13:35 GMT October 8, 2004
the majors are barely pushing the average daily bar enevelopes for this NFP friday.. so expect more pain & pleasure to come..

van Gecko 13:10 GMT October 8, 2004
Kiwi @ .6820.. above 6 month high..
Aussi @ .7330.. going to break above 6 month high..
Canada @ .7990.. the mother Goose, broke above 6 month high over a month ago..
where is the Dollar going ?
Cheerios..

Thursday, October 07, 2004

van Gecko 07:14 GMT October 7, 2004
hk mom.. good trades.. plenty of pips to be have for all papa & mama bears when this multi month consolidation end.. stay cool, try snoozing with one eye open.. @_^

Cable 1/2 session turning point in play.. lower time frame indicator 'saturations' now affords buy on dips opportunities depending on one's greed/fear appetite..

hk mom 04:30 GMT October 7, 2004
Gecko, tks so much, aussie and euro are in good pips now.

van Gecko 02:46 GMT October 7, 2004
the CRB Index, the global benchmark for measuring commodity price movement is on the verge of saying good bye to its 6 month seasonal consolidation..
the break over 285 is another all time high.. with 280 as the new baseline the Index could be marching up to 320 over the m/t..
a similar seasonal breakout over 250 last October pushed the Euro & the commodity trios (Aussie, Kiwi & Cad) up to new heights..

noisy ducks pushed the QDN index for her Majesty GBP up over 10 this week, a 50db drop now in the cards..