Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Thursday, November 30, 2006
van Gecko 23:57 GMT November 30, 2006
re. 17:26 GMT's snippet "do successful traders need to speak more than they listen ?"
is life inside that "speechless pro club" so boring that some of them can't resist the urge to vent their successful frustrations on this side?
FW CS & Cannes Oil Man.. great visions on the Contis
FW CS 17:49 GMT November 30, 2006
Cannes Oil Man
Yes it did finally - thanks for ur insight I am long from 1.2620 and now 1.3120 will scale in ever 500 pips (next one will be new high scale in). Quite a volatility breakout we have had here recently I think the last 2-3 weeks took out the ranges for all of 2006. It seems like there are still a lot of $ bottom pickers around still
Cannes Oil man 17:40 GMT November 30, 2006
FW CS 17:38 GMT November 30, 2006
Everything finally did work out in a nice trend .
Just the start though, plenty bottom $ pickers still.
gl gt
FW CS 17:38 GMT November 30, 2006
Thanksgiving holiday not been kind to the $ last few years. Anyways looking for 1.34-1.36 Euro before first major correction as those were old highs (and all time highs) not much Resistance between these levels and there:
nj jf 17:26 GMT November 30, 2006
ab - more to the point - do successful traders need to speak more than they listen ? .....no style points here only substance
re. 17:26 GMT's snippet "do successful traders need to speak more than they listen ?"
is life inside that "speechless pro club" so boring that some of them can't resist the urge to vent their successful frustrations on this side?
FW CS & Cannes Oil Man.. great visions on the Contis
FW CS 17:49 GMT November 30, 2006
Cannes Oil Man
Yes it did finally - thanks for ur insight I am long from 1.2620 and now 1.3120 will scale in ever 500 pips (next one will be new high scale in). Quite a volatility breakout we have had here recently I think the last 2-3 weeks took out the ranges for all of 2006. It seems like there are still a lot of $ bottom pickers around still
Cannes Oil man 17:40 GMT November 30, 2006
FW CS 17:38 GMT November 30, 2006
Everything finally did work out in a nice trend .
Just the start though, plenty bottom $ pickers still.
gl gt
FW CS 17:38 GMT November 30, 2006
Thanksgiving holiday not been kind to the $ last few years. Anyways looking for 1.34-1.36 Euro before first major correction as those were old highs (and all time highs) not much Resistance between these levels and there:
nj jf 17:26 GMT November 30, 2006
ab - more to the point - do successful traders need to speak more than they listen ? .....no style points here only substance
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
van Gecko 23:40 GMT November 29, 2006
vely good..
USA Zeus 19:04 GMT November 29, 2006
"The question for you shouldn't be what am I not getting but what am I not learning?
Success is neither magical nor mysterious. Success is the natural consequence of consistently applying basic fundamentals. Learn to hide your need and show your skill.
If you share a good idea long enough, it will eventually fall on good people."
London Gonner 21:16 GMT November 29, 2006
GBP and EUR v USD may be topping. I shorted GBP when posted ealier was 1.9534 now took profit on that because am not conviced GBP upside complete yet. 1H/4H seem not to have completed upside yet. Both i sell zone which indicates posiible top is ver near.
Monthlies do not suggest breakout on GBPUSD. I never go against chanels build over 10 year period.
Recent daily/weekly wedge is in -e- wave showing over spill with 1.8315 are confirming potential stall for mutli months USD bull run.
EUR same story with potentiall stall at 1.3235 which it hasn't reached yet.
Mtl JP 16:51 GMT November 29, 2006
van Gecko 03:03 / trying dancing (called puke-a-pip) here with her majesty ahead of this afternoon's Fed's Beige Book (19:00GMT) event risk, maybe she ll get dizzy.
Lahore FM 15:42 GMT November 29, 2006
the USD might have reversed already.cable may not make any fresh attempts towards 1.9540/50.usdjpy also has shown resilience at 116.00.good data from Japan has not pushed it lower then hardly anything will.
van Gecko 03:03 GMT November 29, 2006
Mtl JP 01:44.. keep an eye on her majesty for clues.. imo m/t money rarely buck the odds by succumbing to fatal attraction of buying the GBP up here at Monthly, Quarterly, & Quarter Century resistances..
from here, conventional thinking top feeders may get another fig or two of over-shoots, but failure to sustain 1.94 with weeklies below would have very bearish long & mid-term implications..
and where her majesty goes, cousin Euro & others will follow like Pavlov's dogs for they all dance in a macro same direction vs the Dollar with lead lag steps..
GBP@1.9545
Mtl JP 01:44 GMT November 29, 2006
van Gecko, care to qua(nti)lify "not long" and "sinking" depth plz .. tia
van Gecko 01:40 GMT November 29, 2006
this is a classic blow-out top move..
shouldn't be long now before the market witness the sinking of the 1.36 & 2.00 boats..
vely good..
USA Zeus 19:04 GMT November 29, 2006
"The question for you shouldn't be what am I not getting but what am I not learning?
Success is neither magical nor mysterious. Success is the natural consequence of consistently applying basic fundamentals. Learn to hide your need and show your skill.
If you share a good idea long enough, it will eventually fall on good people."
London Gonner 21:16 GMT November 29, 2006
GBP and EUR v USD may be topping. I shorted GBP when posted ealier was 1.9534 now took profit on that because am not conviced GBP upside complete yet. 1H/4H seem not to have completed upside yet. Both i sell zone which indicates posiible top is ver near.
Monthlies do not suggest breakout on GBPUSD. I never go against chanels build over 10 year period.
Recent daily/weekly wedge is in -e- wave showing over spill with 1.8315 are confirming potential stall for mutli months USD bull run.
EUR same story with potentiall stall at 1.3235 which it hasn't reached yet.
Mtl JP 16:51 GMT November 29, 2006
van Gecko 03:03 / trying dancing (called puke-a-pip) here with her majesty ahead of this afternoon's Fed's Beige Book (19:00GMT) event risk, maybe she ll get dizzy.
Lahore FM 15:42 GMT November 29, 2006
the USD might have reversed already.cable may not make any fresh attempts towards 1.9540/50.usdjpy also has shown resilience at 116.00.good data from Japan has not pushed it lower then hardly anything will.
van Gecko 03:03 GMT November 29, 2006
Mtl JP 01:44.. keep an eye on her majesty for clues.. imo m/t money rarely buck the odds by succumbing to fatal attraction of buying the GBP up here at Monthly, Quarterly, & Quarter Century resistances..
from here, conventional thinking top feeders may get another fig or two of over-shoots, but failure to sustain 1.94 with weeklies below would have very bearish long & mid-term implications..
and where her majesty goes, cousin Euro & others will follow like Pavlov's dogs for they all dance in a macro same direction vs the Dollar with lead lag steps..
GBP@1.9545
Mtl JP 01:44 GMT November 29, 2006
van Gecko, care to qua(nti)lify "not long" and "sinking" depth plz .. tia
van Gecko 01:40 GMT November 29, 2006
this is a classic blow-out top move..
shouldn't be long now before the market witness the sinking of the 1.36 & 2.00 boats..
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Tallinn viies 21:08 GMT November 28, 2006
DOLLAR: A couple of traders suggesting that a chunky dollar-index trade
washed through the market to push the euro above $1.3200 and cable atop
$1.9510 and that once that dollar selling was through, the dollar
recovered slightly. Other traders also make note of the fact that
despite broadly mentioned dollar negative sentiment in the market, the
greenback recovers quickly from dips to fresh lows, although it never
quite makes back all of the lost ground. A lack of conviction may be the
symptom behind that price action, one trader says, explaining that
traders are quick to take profits on positions after "buying the high"
and then enjoying some modest follow-through. That trading style though,
suggests that few have solid dollar shorts on board, the trader says.
Provided by: Market News International
GVI Jay 19:59 GMT November 28, 2006
A history lesson for when gbp/$ was last above 2.00. Read about Black Wednesday
GVI Jay 19:46 GMT November 28, 2006
GBP/$: Approaching last major resistance at 1.9552 (Dec 16, 2004 high) before a void uf key levels until 2.00+
London Gooner 16:44 GMT November 28, 2006
Geneva 16:30 GMT November 28, 2006
Sell euro buy dollar, target 1.14!
Not necessarily a wild call. Market dumping USD but has not yet started playing end of ECB hikes. When & if that kicks in USD bulls will jump on the occasion. If one can sell EUR with s/l above 1.3670.
I would be suprised Trichet will want to calm things down sooner rather than later.
Geneva 16:30 GMT November 28, 2006
Sell euro buy dollar, target 1.14!
van Gecko 12:29 GMT November 28, 2006
it had been over a quarter century since GBP last visited the 2.00 moonscapes and all 6+ fig monthly extensions up to the 16 year range high 1.93/1.98 band are the end of the line for her majesty's bull soldiers..
so, with the odds stacked against her majesty poking its head above the 16 year range high, what are the odds for euro landing up at 1.36 again this year?
London Iain 10:40 GMT November 28, 2006
absolutely book talking, but for me we're in the classic early stages of a trend (USD), where plenty of people have missed the very beginning of the move and are now either looking for where the bottom will form or are waiting for USD bounces to sell into whilst the USD just goes down steadily...
in time more and more people (if this is indeed to be a strong trend) will give up waiting for bounces and just get straight in and the fuel for the fire and speed of the move will only increase....
cable 2.100 in Jan/Feb anyone????
DOLLAR: A couple of traders suggesting that a chunky dollar-index trade
washed through the market to push the euro above $1.3200 and cable atop
$1.9510 and that once that dollar selling was through, the dollar
recovered slightly. Other traders also make note of the fact that
despite broadly mentioned dollar negative sentiment in the market, the
greenback recovers quickly from dips to fresh lows, although it never
quite makes back all of the lost ground. A lack of conviction may be the
symptom behind that price action, one trader says, explaining that
traders are quick to take profits on positions after "buying the high"
and then enjoying some modest follow-through. That trading style though,
suggests that few have solid dollar shorts on board, the trader says.
Provided by: Market News International
GVI Jay 19:59 GMT November 28, 2006
A history lesson for when gbp/$ was last above 2.00. Read about Black Wednesday
GVI Jay 19:46 GMT November 28, 2006
GBP/$: Approaching last major resistance at 1.9552 (Dec 16, 2004 high) before a void uf key levels until 2.00+
London Gooner 16:44 GMT November 28, 2006
Geneva 16:30 GMT November 28, 2006
Sell euro buy dollar, target 1.14!
Not necessarily a wild call. Market dumping USD but has not yet started playing end of ECB hikes. When & if that kicks in USD bulls will jump on the occasion. If one can sell EUR with s/l above 1.3670.
I would be suprised Trichet will want to calm things down sooner rather than later.
Geneva 16:30 GMT November 28, 2006
Sell euro buy dollar, target 1.14!
van Gecko 12:29 GMT November 28, 2006
it had been over a quarter century since GBP last visited the 2.00 moonscapes and all 6+ fig monthly extensions up to the 16 year range high 1.93/1.98 band are the end of the line for her majesty's bull soldiers..
so, with the odds stacked against her majesty poking its head above the 16 year range high, what are the odds for euro landing up at 1.36 again this year?
London Iain 10:40 GMT November 28, 2006
absolutely book talking, but for me we're in the classic early stages of a trend (USD), where plenty of people have missed the very beginning of the move and are now either looking for where the bottom will form or are waiting for USD bounces to sell into whilst the USD just goes down steadily...
in time more and more people (if this is indeed to be a strong trend) will give up waiting for bounces and just get straight in and the fuel for the fire and speed of the move will only increase....
cable 2.100 in Jan/Feb anyone????
Monday, November 27, 2006
van Gecko 14:35 GMT November 27, 2006
Oil man 13:51.. that's fine, there's no need to mention what you may had posted inside that exclusive GVI club now since most of us are only able to see what you choose to share here on the poor man's side..;)
("Cannes Oil man 18:18 GMT November 24, 2006
I still mainting $/CAD will go much further below (While E/CAD goes to 1.50)..And my yearly target (as posted in the newsletters) are all still valid : New lows in the US$ across the board.")
Cannes Oil man 13:51 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko 12:36 GMT November 27, 2006
Yes new lows across the board , but as posted on GVI , the CAD will not strengthen much(against the us$) , which is why as E$ moves up EUR/CAD will have a continued upside explosion..Same as NZD...As EUR/NZD moves up to the 2.10 (and gbp 3.10) targets , NZD$ will move up albeit very slowly.
As for targets just new lows is fine for the US$.
van Gecko 12:36 GMT November 27, 2006
Oil man 10:36.. thanks for the update.. since you are expecting EUR/CAD will reach 1.70 plus you are also expecting new LOWS for the US$ across the board on this run would you mind sharing your newsletter yearly targets for the majors with us?
Cannes Oil man 10:36 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko 05:05 GMT November 27, 2006
Morning,
Yes the break of 583 is buyfor gold , quite bearish before..But i don't see oil or gold increase in this run like previously...it's just a $ run..Meaning for exemple EUR/CAD will reach 1.70.
I personally don't get sticked to a view,otherwise i'd be shorting still e$ instead of longing from 1.25.
gl gt
(Cannes Oil man 18:18 GMT November 24, 2006
I still mainting $/CAD will go much further below (While E/CAD goes to 1.50)..And my yearly target (as posted in the newsletters) are all still valid : New lows in the US$ across the board.)
Oil man 13:51.. that's fine, there's no need to mention what you may had posted inside that exclusive GVI club now since most of us are only able to see what you choose to share here on the poor man's side..;)
("Cannes Oil man 18:18 GMT November 24, 2006
I still mainting $/CAD will go much further below (While E/CAD goes to 1.50)..And my yearly target (as posted in the newsletters) are all still valid : New lows in the US$ across the board.")
Cannes Oil man 13:51 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko 12:36 GMT November 27, 2006
Yes new lows across the board , but as posted on GVI , the CAD will not strengthen much(against the us$) , which is why as E$ moves up EUR/CAD will have a continued upside explosion..Same as NZD...As EUR/NZD moves up to the 2.10 (and gbp 3.10) targets , NZD$ will move up albeit very slowly.
As for targets just new lows is fine for the US$.
van Gecko 12:36 GMT November 27, 2006
Oil man 10:36.. thanks for the update.. since you are expecting EUR/CAD will reach 1.70 plus you are also expecting new LOWS for the US$ across the board on this run would you mind sharing your newsletter yearly targets for the majors with us?
Cannes Oil man 10:36 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko 05:05 GMT November 27, 2006
Morning,
Yes the break of 583 is buyfor gold , quite bearish before..But i don't see oil or gold increase in this run like previously...it's just a $ run..Meaning for exemple EUR/CAD will reach 1.70.
I personally don't get sticked to a view,otherwise i'd be shorting still e$ instead of longing from 1.25.
gl gt
(Cannes Oil man 18:18 GMT November 24, 2006
I still mainting $/CAD will go much further below (While E/CAD goes to 1.50)..And my yearly target (as posted in the newsletters) are all still valid : New lows in the US$ across the board.)
Helsinki iw 08:32 GMT November 27, 2006
Looks like a correction is about to happen, sub 1.30 should be a good buy (or bye?). And wouldn't you know, induced by a French politician. Amazing levels of credibility these guys still have.
van Gecko 07:52 GMT November 27, 2006
St. Annaland Bob 07:25..
forecasting & trading with a bias view is two different ball of wax.. right or wrong, one must have risk adjusted trade bias to take some real money out of the market whereas survival in this cesspool is dependent on one's trade & risk management skills.. the alternative may be to go with the "flow" where money usually flows out of an account faster then the occasional bits that flows in.. cheerios
St. Annaland Bob 07:25 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko
friend, all the forecast business is yours...I thank vols for coming back and only trade...happy trades!
van Gecko 07:15 GMT November 27, 2006
gvm.. watch you left flank & teach your system to keep an eye on USDX 83.50 like a hawk..
Bob.. I see you're starting to hum the tune already .. guess the Queen has your numbers now..;)
St. Annaland Bob 07:04 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko 06:57 GMT November 27, 2006
it's very possible, but '05's 1.16 may come out as '07's 1.30...happy trades
sydney gvm 07:03 GMT November 27, 2006
hey van Gecko are you a dollar bull these days or just cynical of 'irrational [illiquid?] exuberance' of last week? My system is short dollars across a number of currencies and long the metals and I am fighting the urge to over ride it/take profits early in the month end week so I can take some fees on Dec1
van Gecko 06:57 GMT November 27, 2006
if you like those "few paragraphs of context" wait till you start hearing "American Bye".. the November'04 Anthem of Dollar Bears.. ;)
Cbj Jake 06:37 GMT November 27, 2006
MTL JP - Thanks for that JP. It's refreshing to have a few paragraphs of context
van Gecko 06:30 GMT November 27, 2006
Mtl J'Pipski 06:21.. sounds like he want to be a front running quacking turkey with that piece.. LOL
anyways.. my Quacking Ducking Noise Index is starting to look vely interesting across the board..
Mtl JP 06:21 GMT November 27, 2006
Peter Schiff's The U.S. Dollar is the Week’s Biggest Turkey
van Gecko 06:17 GMT November 27, 2006
austin mw 06:10.. what is his track record? pretty desperate sounding piece there..
austin mw 06:10 GMT November 27, 2006
A short paragraph off Reuters.. If this outcome is correct I don't think it much matters who owns what..
The only thing that is worse than holding dollars today is holding an obligation to pay you dollars in the future," or a dollar-denominated bond, says Peter Schiff, president and chief global strategist with Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
"I think it is going to be a rout," he said.
Over about a two-year period, if the dollar were to shed half its current value and foreign accounts were to start actively selling U.S. government bonds, as Schiff expects, "eventually, Treasury yields will be well north of 10 percent," he said.
van Gecko 06:08 GMT November 27, 2006
HK RF@ 05:55.. on the contrary, Dollar/Yen had held its ground rather well in view of the "carnage" inflicted on euro & cousin GBP over the last days.. the 115/116 m/t support is intact & unless eur/jap & gbp/jap fall off the cliff into mid-term neverland from here, imo sub 115 will just be an over-stretched nightmare in the dreams of those still hoping to hit a 110 lotto jackpot.. fwiwW
HK RF@ 05:55 GMT November 27, 2006
I don't find yet a signal of reversal for the nominal downtrend of the Yen. The odds for price sinking below 114 are still there, maybe this week.
Thus buying USD/Yen carrys a risk. It is important to confirm a trend reversal before selling yen for m/t target.
Lucky and wise are those able to catch with the s/t Ret.
van Gecko 05:50 GMT November 27, 2006
Vancouver Mike.. we need some colour to make the trading days interesting..;) can you imagine a snoozy market plus a snoozy forum where everyone post like some pip'less robots the usual sterotype ideas of "sell xxx stop yyy target zzz" ? I like Zeus speaks..
btw.. is Whistler/Blackcomb open for skiing yet?
Vancouver Mike 05:31 GMT November 27, 2006
USA Zeus
austin mw//
Guys can we please stop with the petty exchanges.
austin mw 05:28 GMT November 27, 2006
USA Zeus 05:17 GMT November 27, 2006
yes and admit i was wrong minus 114 pips but at
least i speak clearly and in fork tongue.. gl gt and best
of all gr...
USA Zeus 05:17 GMT November 27, 2006
austin mw 04:35 GMT November 27, 2006
Some humor for Austin MW to laugh about while he has a bone to pick (among other problems). And no you don’t need to do the math, count on other posted shorts in the forum, weak French data or retail shoppers. Miss the forest and you get your legs chopped at the knees like trees while you say go longhorns sitting on the beach while dreaming of others trading in Switzerland-
van Gecko 05:18 GMT November 27, 2006
ab.. may be you should thank yourself instead.. for you might had turn "red" back then & missed all those profits on the yellow metal.. LOL
hk ab 05:09 GMT November 27, 2006
BIG thanks, gecko. I have truly missed that invaluable piece.
van Gecko 05:05 GMT November 27, 2006
hk ab 02:26.. Oil man is snoozing in Cannes.. in case you missed it this was his advice to you earlier on gold.. may be he is looking for oil & gold to fly with euro & GBP now..
"Cannes Oil man 06:23 GMT September 29, 2006
Ab, not sure why u re looking for upside in gold..
Gold has been driven to 700 by specs from 400, same applies to oil prices over 43.
So now everytime it jumps up a bit, you will find massive unloading by said specs who used max leverage and are getting killed , while prices are being driven down inexorably, dinging margin calls , trying to save part of their capital...Most won't even survive, what they saw as a never ending move to the upside and because of said leverage their margin is flying into the skies."
USA Zeus 04:59 GMT November 27, 2006
Here is a little bit of “h-i-n-d-s-i-g-h-t thematic posts from the US shore”
For little China and those ignorant defiants in Austin LOL-
van Gecko 04:45 GMT November 27, 2006
re. 04:24 GMT.. its certainly not a secret to be rich by being stupid.. I guess if the poor are the smart guys and the rich are stupid, then most of us wants to be stupid.. no?
austin mw 04:35 GMT November 27, 2006
hk ab 04:33 GMT November 27, 2006
LOL... very true
hk ab 04:33 GMT November 27, 2006
Gecko, you need to understand the word h-i-n-d-s-i-g-h-t before we read the "thematic posts" from the US shore......
In fact, I am looking forward to see his bk in bookstore soon.
van Gecko 04:26 GMT November 27, 2006
USA Zeus 03:51.. sounds like a vely profitable plan..
as the flow away from the dollar seems to be just intensifing so what had changed from a few figs ago for you to be slicing out those dollar shorts now?
hong kong nt 04:24 GMT November 27, 2006
SECRET REVEALED: C9 is richer than most may imagine. One of my monitored C9 made another twenty millions margin deposit to sell more gold at 640 (she calls for double tops on daily!)...
USA Zeus 03:51 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko
Actually slicing out of those shorts as was selling those USD's a few figs ago- all part of the plan.
van Gecko 03:41 GMT November 27, 2006
Zeus 03:27.. are you selling the "post Pelosi dollar" with close eys now?
looks like some europhiles who didn't go long the euro with closed eyes last Friday down @1.3060 are buying around here as they don't want to be left with holding the pip'less bag watching euro shot-up another 5 figs to 1.36.. or even worst, climb another 10 figs to 1.40 !
;)
"08:46 GMT November 24, 2006
iw.. at the rate its going up you might not get any pullback.. better load up here for the 1.36 boat.."
USA Zeus 03:27 GMT November 27, 2006
Sydney ACC 02:56 GMT November 27, 2006
Everyone has a reason to explain price. Not that it really matters since price is all we need.
However, since everyone seems to find a reason here is mine-
It's all part of the US stagnation post Pelosi Democratic non-productive agenda election. Thus, as a consequence the US gets what it asked for and the world responds with a tick down in global confidence. This has been my view since the election and the market has been up to peculiar reshuffling prior to these blowout movements- all part of the plan IMVHO.
Sydney ACC 02:56 GMT November 27, 2006
An extract from am Commonwealth Bank report issued today:
The reasons for the recent US dollar sell-off do not appear justified with the recent fundamental events. The US dollar sell off appears to be a short-term overshoot. Neither the stockmarket nor the bond market has reacted in the same way as the currency market to the same news about a downgrading of US economic growth. The actual downgrade comes as no major surprise (virtually all forecasters have downgraded their US GDP forecasts recently). The Fed does not appear to be entertaining a cut in interest rates in the next few months and so it is highly unlikely this current US dollar sell off will last long.
hk ab 02:26 GMT November 27, 2006
oilman, may I ask why you are not quite interested in gold?
Cannes Oil man 02:07 GMT November 27, 2006
Actually , i think lots of people are squeezed in this $ dumping..
Meaning EY , just jumped of friday's high, E$ , still well above...
As soon we get near levels that E$ and EY will look to be breaking out, the bag holders will be unloading their losses,making e$ jump up again..
Talking of bag holders of the short dollars is a wrong word...Not when E$ has been going up 500 pips in 2 days...Same to be said of GBP$...It's more : Those long Euro , might be tempted to take T/P under 1.3020..If that goes, then market might retrace a long way..However one shouldn't count on miracles when trend starts to pick up.
That said, GL to everyone and GN.
toronto amenhire 01:43 GMT November 27, 2006
who says china sold dollars maybe they bought euro options you havent lost a thing untill you really sell gi gts
Livingston nh 01:38 GMT November 27, 2006
imo the japanese have the greater effect on the USD - China is a buyer in the world mkt - the japanese hoard of USD is nearly as large as China's and they have a tradeable currency
van Gecko 01:36 GMT November 27, 2006
Acrophobia setting in for some europhiles holding boatful of longs up here..
euro @1.3150
Sydney ACC 01:35 GMT November 27, 2006
China has seen the value of its reserves diminish by almost by 2 per cent since mid-June, that is the measure of the renminbi’s appreciation against the USD. Given that the reserves in mid-June would have been approximately USD 900 billion that is a loss of USD 18 billion.
If they converted USD 100 billion into euros at 1.2600 at 1.3100 they would have saved only USD 3 billion – plus they would have foregone USD 1 billion in interest.
The PBOC have been losing more by revaluing the renminbi since June than what they would have saved converting into other currencies.
Notwithstanding the pluses and minuses of reserve manipulation to the authorities in China they need to manage social cohesion. We are witnessing today the greatest migration from rural to urban environments in the history of mankind. While many in the west have forgotten Tianamen Square in 1989, I am certain those that govern China have not and what is more they do not want that to recur.
Livingston nh 01:29 GMT November 27, 2006
the two biggest customers in the world use the USD - seems to me the PBoC is not too interested in pushing the dollar down
toronto amenhire 01:25 GMT November 27, 2006
again will see who the bagholders will be maybe you can use it on a resume. its too bad the majority are so easy to manipulate
Cannes Oil man 01:18 GMT November 27, 2006
toronto amenhire 01:09 GMT November 27, 2006
They aren't scalping the market.
They receive billions of US$ every month into their reserves via the trade surplus , they don't need to buy ANY US$..
you misunderstand that it's not a player who needs $'s , or needs $ allocation , it s receiving $'s all day..it never buys $'s..It doesn't need too..It buys US bonds only paid in $ , via their $ surplus's.
toronto amenhire 01:09 GMT November 27, 2006
if the fx market was a game of poker and it is the last thing you would do is show your hand china is bluffing as always they loaded up euros and taking profits now while working on loading up cheap dollars as we speak carrys still king would anyone in there right mind really tell the truth there the proud owner of more dollars than anyone
van Gecko 23:33 GMT November 26, 2006
Oil man.. you may be right.. lets wait & see what happens up here this week.. or later on today..
Cannes Oil man 23:28 GMT November 26, 2006
van Gecko
Isn't it always normally in winter?..
They were just waiting it looks like, when everyone got into range mode : "we re safe , let's play range"..Woom..the move picks up steam..
I was myself quite unsure about which way it would break (up or down) at first, but the bounce at 1.25 was too strong, at least to my tastes.
The other thing that makes me think is, China, with all it's talk about diversification must make all the other "little" CB's start to get out of the $ NOW, at least before the chineses do...Or they would get level's to sell their $'s WAY WAY lower than present (if china decides to do it)...
That holds for Russia, and all the other CB's that are pegged to the US..They must be looking to sell their $ BEFORE china ever does..
just a few thoughts.
van Gecko 23:23 GMT November 26, 2006
Cannes Oil man 23:13.. so you think this will be a one way street for the "fundies" from here?
Cannes Oil man 23:13 GMT November 26, 2006
van Gecko
Looks like the fundies are looking to close with a bonus and will keep pushing till there's any blood left..
van Gecko 23:07 GMT November 26, 2006
Cannes Oil man.. thanks, if euro close above 1.3150 then santa clus may be sitting with the europhilies on the boat to 1.36..
Cannes Oil man 22:57 GMT November 26, 2006
van Gecko
Even higher on E$, i saw the rush to 1.3176..Don't have the exact number cause they actually reset the numbers on the new Japan session.
van Gecko 22:55 GMT November 26, 2006
Cannes Oil man.. you have live euro fills from 1.3095 to 1.3145?
Cannes Oil man 22:45 GMT November 26, 2006
van Gecko
No gaps here..Gaps only in US brokers looks like..
van Gecko 22:39 GMT November 26, 2006
nice gap!
europhlies must think they had die & gone to heaven with euro gaping another 1/2 fig closer to 1.36 from last Friday's close..
Looks like a correction is about to happen, sub 1.30 should be a good buy (or bye?). And wouldn't you know, induced by a French politician. Amazing levels of credibility these guys still have.
van Gecko 07:52 GMT November 27, 2006
St. Annaland Bob 07:25..
forecasting & trading with a bias view is two different ball of wax.. right or wrong, one must have risk adjusted trade bias to take some real money out of the market whereas survival in this cesspool is dependent on one's trade & risk management skills.. the alternative may be to go with the "flow" where money usually flows out of an account faster then the occasional bits that flows in.. cheerios
St. Annaland Bob 07:25 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko
friend, all the forecast business is yours...I thank vols for coming back and only trade...happy trades!
van Gecko 07:15 GMT November 27, 2006
gvm.. watch you left flank & teach your system to keep an eye on USDX 83.50 like a hawk..
Bob.. I see you're starting to hum the tune already .. guess the Queen has your numbers now..;)
St. Annaland Bob 07:04 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko 06:57 GMT November 27, 2006
it's very possible, but '05's 1.16 may come out as '07's 1.30...happy trades
sydney gvm 07:03 GMT November 27, 2006
hey van Gecko are you a dollar bull these days or just cynical of 'irrational [illiquid?] exuberance' of last week? My system is short dollars across a number of currencies and long the metals and I am fighting the urge to over ride it/take profits early in the month end week so I can take some fees on Dec1
van Gecko 06:57 GMT November 27, 2006
if you like those "few paragraphs of context" wait till you start hearing "American Bye".. the November'04 Anthem of Dollar Bears.. ;)
Cbj Jake 06:37 GMT November 27, 2006
MTL JP - Thanks for that JP. It's refreshing to have a few paragraphs of context
van Gecko 06:30 GMT November 27, 2006
Mtl J'Pipski 06:21.. sounds like he want to be a front running quacking turkey with that piece.. LOL
anyways.. my Quacking Ducking Noise Index is starting to look vely interesting across the board..
Mtl JP 06:21 GMT November 27, 2006
Peter Schiff's The U.S. Dollar is the Week’s Biggest Turkey
van Gecko 06:17 GMT November 27, 2006
austin mw 06:10.. what is his track record? pretty desperate sounding piece there..
austin mw 06:10 GMT November 27, 2006
A short paragraph off Reuters.. If this outcome is correct I don't think it much matters who owns what..
The only thing that is worse than holding dollars today is holding an obligation to pay you dollars in the future," or a dollar-denominated bond, says Peter Schiff, president and chief global strategist with Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
"I think it is going to be a rout," he said.
Over about a two-year period, if the dollar were to shed half its current value and foreign accounts were to start actively selling U.S. government bonds, as Schiff expects, "eventually, Treasury yields will be well north of 10 percent," he said.
van Gecko 06:08 GMT November 27, 2006
HK RF@ 05:55.. on the contrary, Dollar/Yen had held its ground rather well in view of the "carnage" inflicted on euro & cousin GBP over the last days.. the 115/116 m/t support is intact & unless eur/jap & gbp/jap fall off the cliff into mid-term neverland from here, imo sub 115 will just be an over-stretched nightmare in the dreams of those still hoping to hit a 110 lotto jackpot.. fwiwW
HK RF@ 05:55 GMT November 27, 2006
I don't find yet a signal of reversal for the nominal downtrend of the Yen. The odds for price sinking below 114 are still there, maybe this week.
Thus buying USD/Yen carrys a risk. It is important to confirm a trend reversal before selling yen for m/t target.
Lucky and wise are those able to catch with the s/t Ret.
van Gecko 05:50 GMT November 27, 2006
Vancouver Mike.. we need some colour to make the trading days interesting..;) can you imagine a snoozy market plus a snoozy forum where everyone post like some pip'less robots the usual sterotype ideas of "sell xxx stop yyy target zzz" ? I like Zeus speaks..
btw.. is Whistler/Blackcomb open for skiing yet?
Vancouver Mike 05:31 GMT November 27, 2006
USA Zeus
austin mw//
Guys can we please stop with the petty exchanges.
austin mw 05:28 GMT November 27, 2006
USA Zeus 05:17 GMT November 27, 2006
yes and admit i was wrong minus 114 pips but at
least i speak clearly and in fork tongue.. gl gt and best
of all gr...
USA Zeus 05:17 GMT November 27, 2006
austin mw 04:35 GMT November 27, 2006
Some humor for Austin MW to laugh about while he has a bone to pick (among other problems). And no you don’t need to do the math, count on other posted shorts in the forum, weak French data or retail shoppers. Miss the forest and you get your legs chopped at the knees like trees while you say go longhorns sitting on the beach while dreaming of others trading in Switzerland-
van Gecko 05:18 GMT November 27, 2006
ab.. may be you should thank yourself instead.. for you might had turn "red" back then & missed all those profits on the yellow metal.. LOL
hk ab 05:09 GMT November 27, 2006
BIG thanks, gecko. I have truly missed that invaluable piece.
van Gecko 05:05 GMT November 27, 2006
hk ab 02:26.. Oil man is snoozing in Cannes.. in case you missed it this was his advice to you earlier on gold.. may be he is looking for oil & gold to fly with euro & GBP now..
"Cannes Oil man 06:23 GMT September 29, 2006
Ab, not sure why u re looking for upside in gold..
Gold has been driven to 700 by specs from 400, same applies to oil prices over 43.
So now everytime it jumps up a bit, you will find massive unloading by said specs who used max leverage and are getting killed , while prices are being driven down inexorably, dinging margin calls , trying to save part of their capital...Most won't even survive, what they saw as a never ending move to the upside and because of said leverage their margin is flying into the skies."
USA Zeus 04:59 GMT November 27, 2006
Here is a little bit of “h-i-n-d-s-i-g-h-t thematic posts from the US shore”
For little China and those ignorant defiants in Austin LOL-
van Gecko 04:45 GMT November 27, 2006
re. 04:24 GMT.. its certainly not a secret to be rich by being stupid.. I guess if the poor are the smart guys and the rich are stupid, then most of us wants to be stupid.. no?
austin mw 04:35 GMT November 27, 2006
hk ab 04:33 GMT November 27, 2006
LOL... very true
hk ab 04:33 GMT November 27, 2006
Gecko, you need to understand the word h-i-n-d-s-i-g-h-t before we read the "thematic posts" from the US shore......
In fact, I am looking forward to see his bk in bookstore soon.
van Gecko 04:26 GMT November 27, 2006
USA Zeus 03:51.. sounds like a vely profitable plan..
as the flow away from the dollar seems to be just intensifing so what had changed from a few figs ago for you to be slicing out those dollar shorts now?
hong kong nt 04:24 GMT November 27, 2006
SECRET REVEALED: C9 is richer than most may imagine. One of my monitored C9 made another twenty millions margin deposit to sell more gold at 640 (she calls for double tops on daily!)...
USA Zeus 03:51 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko
Actually slicing out of those shorts as was selling those USD's a few figs ago- all part of the plan.
van Gecko 03:41 GMT November 27, 2006
Zeus 03:27.. are you selling the "post Pelosi dollar" with close eys now?
looks like some europhiles who didn't go long the euro with closed eyes last Friday down @1.3060 are buying around here as they don't want to be left with holding the pip'less bag watching euro shot-up another 5 figs to 1.36.. or even worst, climb another 10 figs to 1.40 !
;)
"08:46 GMT November 24, 2006
iw.. at the rate its going up you might not get any pullback.. better load up here for the 1.36 boat.."
USA Zeus 03:27 GMT November 27, 2006
Sydney ACC 02:56 GMT November 27, 2006
Everyone has a reason to explain price. Not that it really matters since price is all we need.
However, since everyone seems to find a reason here is mine-
It's all part of the US stagnation post Pelosi Democratic non-productive agenda election. Thus, as a consequence the US gets what it asked for and the world responds with a tick down in global confidence. This has been my view since the election and the market has been up to peculiar reshuffling prior to these blowout movements- all part of the plan IMVHO.
Sydney ACC 02:56 GMT November 27, 2006
An extract from am Commonwealth Bank report issued today:
The reasons for the recent US dollar sell-off do not appear justified with the recent fundamental events. The US dollar sell off appears to be a short-term overshoot. Neither the stockmarket nor the bond market has reacted in the same way as the currency market to the same news about a downgrading of US economic growth. The actual downgrade comes as no major surprise (virtually all forecasters have downgraded their US GDP forecasts recently). The Fed does not appear to be entertaining a cut in interest rates in the next few months and so it is highly unlikely this current US dollar sell off will last long.
hk ab 02:26 GMT November 27, 2006
oilman, may I ask why you are not quite interested in gold?
Cannes Oil man 02:07 GMT November 27, 2006
Actually , i think lots of people are squeezed in this $ dumping..
Meaning EY , just jumped of friday's high, E$ , still well above...
As soon we get near levels that E$ and EY will look to be breaking out, the bag holders will be unloading their losses,making e$ jump up again..
Talking of bag holders of the short dollars is a wrong word...Not when E$ has been going up 500 pips in 2 days...Same to be said of GBP$...It's more : Those long Euro , might be tempted to take T/P under 1.3020..If that goes, then market might retrace a long way..However one shouldn't count on miracles when trend starts to pick up.
That said, GL to everyone and GN.
toronto amenhire 01:43 GMT November 27, 2006
who says china sold dollars maybe they bought euro options you havent lost a thing untill you really sell gi gts
Livingston nh 01:38 GMT November 27, 2006
imo the japanese have the greater effect on the USD - China is a buyer in the world mkt - the japanese hoard of USD is nearly as large as China's and they have a tradeable currency
van Gecko 01:36 GMT November 27, 2006
Acrophobia setting in for some europhiles holding boatful of longs up here..
euro @1.3150
Sydney ACC 01:35 GMT November 27, 2006
China has seen the value of its reserves diminish by almost by 2 per cent since mid-June, that is the measure of the renminbi’s appreciation against the USD. Given that the reserves in mid-June would have been approximately USD 900 billion that is a loss of USD 18 billion.
If they converted USD 100 billion into euros at 1.2600 at 1.3100 they would have saved only USD 3 billion – plus they would have foregone USD 1 billion in interest.
The PBOC have been losing more by revaluing the renminbi since June than what they would have saved converting into other currencies.
Notwithstanding the pluses and minuses of reserve manipulation to the authorities in China they need to manage social cohesion. We are witnessing today the greatest migration from rural to urban environments in the history of mankind. While many in the west have forgotten Tianamen Square in 1989, I am certain those that govern China have not and what is more they do not want that to recur.
Livingston nh 01:29 GMT November 27, 2006
the two biggest customers in the world use the USD - seems to me the PBoC is not too interested in pushing the dollar down
toronto amenhire 01:25 GMT November 27, 2006
again will see who the bagholders will be maybe you can use it on a resume. its too bad the majority are so easy to manipulate
Cannes Oil man 01:18 GMT November 27, 2006
toronto amenhire 01:09 GMT November 27, 2006
They aren't scalping the market.
They receive billions of US$ every month into their reserves via the trade surplus , they don't need to buy ANY US$..
you misunderstand that it's not a player who needs $'s , or needs $ allocation , it s receiving $'s all day..it never buys $'s..It doesn't need too..It buys US bonds only paid in $ , via their $ surplus's.
toronto amenhire 01:09 GMT November 27, 2006
if the fx market was a game of poker and it is the last thing you would do is show your hand china is bluffing as always they loaded up euros and taking profits now while working on loading up cheap dollars as we speak carrys still king would anyone in there right mind really tell the truth there the proud owner of more dollars than anyone
van Gecko 23:33 GMT November 26, 2006
Oil man.. you may be right.. lets wait & see what happens up here this week.. or later on today..
Cannes Oil man 23:28 GMT November 26, 2006
van Gecko
Isn't it always normally in winter?..
They were just waiting it looks like, when everyone got into range mode : "we re safe , let's play range"..Woom..the move picks up steam..
I was myself quite unsure about which way it would break (up or down) at first, but the bounce at 1.25 was too strong, at least to my tastes.
The other thing that makes me think is, China, with all it's talk about diversification must make all the other "little" CB's start to get out of the $ NOW, at least before the chineses do...Or they would get level's to sell their $'s WAY WAY lower than present (if china decides to do it)...
That holds for Russia, and all the other CB's that are pegged to the US..They must be looking to sell their $ BEFORE china ever does..
just a few thoughts.
van Gecko 23:23 GMT November 26, 2006
Cannes Oil man 23:13.. so you think this will be a one way street for the "fundies" from here?
Cannes Oil man 23:13 GMT November 26, 2006
van Gecko
Looks like the fundies are looking to close with a bonus and will keep pushing till there's any blood left..
van Gecko 23:07 GMT November 26, 2006
Cannes Oil man.. thanks, if euro close above 1.3150 then santa clus may be sitting with the europhilies on the boat to 1.36..
Cannes Oil man 22:57 GMT November 26, 2006
van Gecko
Even higher on E$, i saw the rush to 1.3176..Don't have the exact number cause they actually reset the numbers on the new Japan session.
van Gecko 22:55 GMT November 26, 2006
Cannes Oil man.. you have live euro fills from 1.3095 to 1.3145?
Cannes Oil man 22:45 GMT November 26, 2006
van Gecko
No gaps here..Gaps only in US brokers looks like..
van Gecko 22:39 GMT November 26, 2006
nice gap!
europhlies must think they had die & gone to heaven with euro gaping another 1/2 fig closer to 1.36 from last Friday's close..
Friday, November 24, 2006
van Gecko 08:56 GMT November 24, 2006
I wouldn't bet on it iw.. its a close eye buy for 1.36 as our bull friend from Tallin like to say..
Helsinki iw 08:49 GMT November 24, 2006
Gecko, surely there is somebody out there that will be able to take profits once the next French politician opens his mouth?
van Gecko 08:46 GMT November 24, 2006
iw.. at the rate its going up you might not get any pullback.. better load up here for the 1.36 boat..
Helsinki iw 08:41 GMT November 24, 2006
Thank you for stopping to shop at the stop-loss shop.
EUR/USD should now test the high at 1,3665/85. Next pullback may provide a great buying opportunity.
I wouldn't bet on it iw.. its a close eye buy for 1.36 as our bull friend from Tallin like to say..
Helsinki iw 08:49 GMT November 24, 2006
Gecko, surely there is somebody out there that will be able to take profits once the next French politician opens his mouth?
van Gecko 08:46 GMT November 24, 2006
iw.. at the rate its going up you might not get any pullback.. better load up here for the 1.36 boat..
Helsinki iw 08:41 GMT November 24, 2006
Thank you for stopping to shop at the stop-loss shop.
EUR/USD should now test the high at 1,3665/85. Next pullback may provide a great buying opportunity.
Thursday, November 23, 2006
van Gecko 14:30 GMT November 23, 2006
Helsinki iw 11:18 hope you're fine.. yes, selling JPY/USD in front of 116.. think those anxious "DollarYen 110 lotto" ticket holders may have to wait a few more moons for the Jackpot..
Helsinki iw 11:18 GMT November 23, 2006
Gecko, does this mean that you are busy selling USD/JPY then?
van Gecko 11:02 GMT November 23, 2006
the state of the Dollar.. comparing apples to orange;
the last time euro was up here near 1.30, the Dollar vs Japanese & Swissy were down at 110 & 1.20 respectively.. a + divergence of 5 & 2 figs here.. and on the past two Q4 break-out the dollar was up above usdx 90 zigzaging down to 80, the recent major low and euro was the grateful benefactor of a long term rising sub 140 Eur/Jpy. while this time around, the Dollar had climbed 500+bps from its historical low, & both crosses are up against major mid to long term resistances here.. fwiwW
van Gecko 09:08 GMT November 23, 2006
CAIRO AG 07:18.. its a laborious 3hr drive (or 2hr in a LP640) south for Chaiyi turkey, so I'll just stick with my Peking duck dinner here.. as for the raging Euro, if it could sustain multiple weeklies above 1.2980 those savvy Rickshaw & Taxi drivers may be on the right boat to 1.36 while any approach near 1.30 are premium r/r contra opportunties for real money position/range players..
CAIRO AG 07:18 GMT November 23, 2006
Gecko// Hellooooo.... hope you re enjoying today s turkey.... I didnt get that...or may be am mis-understanding: u changed ur view and now looking for euro 1.36? TIA
Good day to you.
van Gecko 07:12 GMT November 23, 2006
rickshaw & taxi drivers all over may be telling each other it's the last call to buy euro here for 1.36 or risk being inflicted with Thanksgiving turkey_titist..
fwiwW
Helsinki iw 11:18 hope you're fine.. yes, selling JPY/USD in front of 116.. think those anxious "DollarYen 110 lotto" ticket holders may have to wait a few more moons for the Jackpot..
Helsinki iw 11:18 GMT November 23, 2006
Gecko, does this mean that you are busy selling USD/JPY then?
van Gecko 11:02 GMT November 23, 2006
the state of the Dollar.. comparing apples to orange;
the last time euro was up here near 1.30, the Dollar vs Japanese & Swissy were down at 110 & 1.20 respectively.. a + divergence of 5 & 2 figs here.. and on the past two Q4 break-out the dollar was up above usdx 90 zigzaging down to 80, the recent major low and euro was the grateful benefactor of a long term rising sub 140 Eur/Jpy. while this time around, the Dollar had climbed 500+bps from its historical low, & both crosses are up against major mid to long term resistances here.. fwiwW
van Gecko 09:08 GMT November 23, 2006
CAIRO AG 07:18.. its a laborious 3hr drive (or 2hr in a LP640) south for Chaiyi turkey, so I'll just stick with my Peking duck dinner here.. as for the raging Euro, if it could sustain multiple weeklies above 1.2980 those savvy Rickshaw & Taxi drivers may be on the right boat to 1.36 while any approach near 1.30 are premium r/r contra opportunties for real money position/range players..
CAIRO AG 07:18 GMT November 23, 2006
Gecko// Hellooooo.... hope you re enjoying today s turkey.... I didnt get that...or may be am mis-understanding: u changed ur view and now looking for euro 1.36? TIA
Good day to you.
van Gecko 07:12 GMT November 23, 2006
rickshaw & taxi drivers all over may be telling each other it's the last call to buy euro here for 1.36 or risk being inflicted with Thanksgiving turkey_titist..
fwiwW
Friday, November 17, 2006
van Gecko 08:01 GMT November 17, 2006
PHX RuGO 07:37.. looks like a liquidity tease here in front of a mini flatline prior to the next push by the Dollar..
"Flatline/neckline/support usually fail & break in the direction of the most recent prevailing macro or micro trend.."
multiiple time frame trend flatline analytics compliment of the school of Voodoo Charting Psychoanalysis..
Cheerios
PHX RuGO 07:37 GMT November 17, 2006
Am I the only one who believes that USD bulls will take this fight to a whole new level next week? Is the market so hungry that it would be willing to settle for such narrow profits?
shanghai bc 03:16 GMT November 17, 2006
Good morning..My bet is still for 110-120 range for the remaining weeks of the year..Good luck..
PHX RuGO 07:37.. looks like a liquidity tease here in front of a mini flatline prior to the next push by the Dollar..
"Flatline/neckline/support usually fail & break in the direction of the most recent prevailing macro or micro trend.."
multiiple time frame trend flatline analytics compliment of the school of Voodoo Charting Psychoanalysis..
Cheerios
PHX RuGO 07:37 GMT November 17, 2006
Am I the only one who believes that USD bulls will take this fight to a whole new level next week? Is the market so hungry that it would be willing to settle for such narrow profits?
shanghai bc 03:16 GMT November 17, 2006
Good morning..My bet is still for 110-120 range for the remaining weeks of the year..Good luck..
Thursday, November 16, 2006
van Gecko 13:08 GMT November 16, 2006
Mumbai NS 09:44.. long for the old volatile days of "wine & roses" where traders slug it out with diverse views over phones & telex.. nowady, the market seems to had evolved into snoozeland with the rapid cross pollination of similar styles over the modern info highway.. cheers..
Mumbai NS 09:44 GMT November 16, 2006
van Gecko
Mate ur style is too gud although i may disagree with u thoroughly i do enjoy ur immicable usage of similies and metaphors gung ho frd cheers!
van Gecko 09:36 GMT November 16, 2006
jkt-aye 09:15.. a sub 1.8750 close this week after this latest rejection infront of 1.92 may get the Q4 train rolling..
jkt-aye 09:15 GMT November 16, 2006
Gecko...do you see a nice flying from down there ?
"UK Alex 09:45 GMT November 17, 2006
0930 GMT [Dow Jones] Cable's immediate outlook is negative with 1.8935-50 resistance expected to cap Friday, says Royal Bank of Scotland. The rate is nearing 1.8840, seen as a downside trigger for further losses toward 1.8770 and 1.8675."
van Gecko 09:09 GMT November 16, 2006
Syd 08:47.. those GBP specs may get lucky this week & add to their record long possies down at 1.8668.. ;)
Euro & Yen specs will get their chances too once the Cable lead train start steaming down the English Channel..
Syd 08:47 GMT November 16, 2006
Sterling gained modest support from a solid overnight RICS house price survey (+48.1 vs +45.7 last) but faces a crunch test Thursday from retail sales (0930 GMT, seen +0.4% mo-mo), says ABN Amro. Sterling's weakness Wednesday was triggered by a spike in unemployment and a dovish BoE inflation report, a solid retail sales print could offset some of the damage says the bank. However, ABNA adds that with speculators holding near record long GBP positions, only an upside surprise in the numbers will push the pound higher near-term against the majors. Cable trades at 1.8856, EUR/GBP at 0.6793
Mumbai NS 09:44.. long for the old volatile days of "wine & roses" where traders slug it out with diverse views over phones & telex.. nowady, the market seems to had evolved into snoozeland with the rapid cross pollination of similar styles over the modern info highway.. cheers..
Mumbai NS 09:44 GMT November 16, 2006
van Gecko
Mate ur style is too gud although i may disagree with u thoroughly i do enjoy ur immicable usage of similies and metaphors gung ho frd cheers!
van Gecko 09:36 GMT November 16, 2006
jkt-aye 09:15.. a sub 1.8750 close this week after this latest rejection infront of 1.92 may get the Q4 train rolling..
jkt-aye 09:15 GMT November 16, 2006
Gecko...do you see a nice flying from down there ?
"UK Alex 09:45 GMT November 17, 2006
0930 GMT [Dow Jones] Cable's immediate outlook is negative with 1.8935-50 resistance expected to cap Friday, says Royal Bank of Scotland. The rate is nearing 1.8840, seen as a downside trigger for further losses toward 1.8770 and 1.8675."
van Gecko 09:09 GMT November 16, 2006
Syd 08:47.. those GBP specs may get lucky this week & add to their record long possies down at 1.8668.. ;)
Euro & Yen specs will get their chances too once the Cable lead train start steaming down the English Channel..
Syd 08:47 GMT November 16, 2006
Sterling gained modest support from a solid overnight RICS house price survey (+48.1 vs +45.7 last) but faces a crunch test Thursday from retail sales (0930 GMT, seen +0.4% mo-mo), says ABN Amro. Sterling's weakness Wednesday was triggered by a spike in unemployment and a dovish BoE inflation report, a solid retail sales print could offset some of the damage says the bank. However, ABNA adds that with speculators holding near record long GBP positions, only an upside surprise in the numbers will push the pound higher near-term against the majors. Cable trades at 1.8856, EUR/GBP at 0.6793
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
van Gecko 09:35 GMT November 15, 2006
if 1.91 is not seen soon on this leg.. her majesty's card carrying BULLS carrying heavy cargos could turn into BOOBS (Bail Out On Blips)..
"mex sjs 17:02 GMT November 20, 2006
shorted euro here at market 1.2815 sl= 1.30 tgt 1.18-1.20 area,
shorted gbp here at market 1.8975 sl= 1.9180 tgt 1.80-82 area , for coming weeks, before yearend...gl & gt"
van Gecko 08:08 GMT November 15, 2006
The Conti cousins had shown their cards.. now 1.80 during Decemeber may be a good short term target..
"16:43 GMT October 31, 2006
..... it might sound weird & retarded to you.. but imo the dollar is a great buy here vs the GBP.. r/r 5 to 1 near term, 10 to 1 short term, & 20 to 1 mid-term.."
GBP @1.8968
if 1.91 is not seen soon on this leg.. her majesty's card carrying BULLS carrying heavy cargos could turn into BOOBS (Bail Out On Blips)..
"mex sjs 17:02 GMT November 20, 2006
shorted euro here at market 1.2815 sl= 1.30 tgt 1.18-1.20 area,
shorted gbp here at market 1.8975 sl= 1.9180 tgt 1.80-82 area , for coming weeks, before yearend...gl & gt"
van Gecko 08:08 GMT November 15, 2006
The Conti cousins had shown their cards.. now 1.80 during Decemeber may be a good short term target..
"16:43 GMT October 31, 2006
..... it might sound weird & retarded to you.. but imo the dollar is a great buy here vs the GBP.. r/r 5 to 1 near term, 10 to 1 short term, & 20 to 1 mid-term.."
GBP @1.8968
Friday, November 10, 2006
van Gecko 11:33 GMT November 10, 2006
imo Euro & cousin GBP still have no legs to break their yearly tops.. with the dollar holding its m/t grounds since May, the traverses within their year long ranges had been mostly cross driven.. deceptive parasitic dependences don't have the depth & legs for major moves.. over-shoots may be, but no sustained breaks..
the Dollar is doing fine vs all other majors..
shanghai bc 04:05 GMT November 10, 2006
Sydney 03:31 GMT November 10, 2006
Main diverisfication will be in buying free-hold or long-lease farms,mines,oil fields and strategic companies outside China..Not interested in storing cash in Euro or otherwise except buying some gold..Not sure how much those purchases will affect forex market though..As the things are going that will be some 1.5 trillion Dollar purchase by 2010 assuming China keeps only 500 billion Dollar cash by then..
Sydney 03:31 GMT November 10, 2006
Interesting Zeus whipcrush market move + heated exchanges, van Gecko 3 hong kong forum idiot 0.
shanghai bc 01:59 GMT November 10, 2006
Is China doing public stunt on the reserve diversification front? GT
shanghai bc 01:59 GMT November 10, 2006
MOF of Japan is just doing public stunt on Eur/Jpy front..Checking how much money is in Eur/Jpy trade is an impossible task..Total nonsense designed only to humour complaining ECB folks..The truth is they could not care less what level that one is at ,as long as Usd/Jpy is capped in 110-120..Fwiw..
imo Euro & cousin GBP still have no legs to break their yearly tops.. with the dollar holding its m/t grounds since May, the traverses within their year long ranges had been mostly cross driven.. deceptive parasitic dependences don't have the depth & legs for major moves.. over-shoots may be, but no sustained breaks..
the Dollar is doing fine vs all other majors..
shanghai bc 04:05 GMT November 10, 2006
Sydney 03:31 GMT November 10, 2006
Main diverisfication will be in buying free-hold or long-lease farms,mines,oil fields and strategic companies outside China..Not interested in storing cash in Euro or otherwise except buying some gold..Not sure how much those purchases will affect forex market though..As the things are going that will be some 1.5 trillion Dollar purchase by 2010 assuming China keeps only 500 billion Dollar cash by then..
Sydney 03:31 GMT November 10, 2006
Interesting Zeus whipcrush market move + heated exchanges, van Gecko 3 hong kong forum idiot 0.
shanghai bc 01:59 GMT November 10, 2006
Is China doing public stunt on the reserve diversification front? GT
shanghai bc 01:59 GMT November 10, 2006
MOF of Japan is just doing public stunt on Eur/Jpy front..Checking how much money is in Eur/Jpy trade is an impossible task..Total nonsense designed only to humour complaining ECB folks..The truth is they could not care less what level that one is at ,as long as Usd/Jpy is capped in 110-120..Fwiw..
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Sydney ACC 21:59 GMT November 9, 2006
If China decides to convert 10% of their reserves, i.e. USD 100 billion into euros and this forces the EUR/USD rate to move 5 big figures (4% depreciation) the gain for the PBOC is USD 4 billion
But what about the impact on the balance?
Let’s say there is a further USD 600 billion of USD reserves, these depreciate then USD 24 billion versus the euro.
It’s a bit like the old euphemism “You owe the bank a $ 1million you have a problem, you owe the bank USD 100 million they have a problem”.
U.K. J.B. 21:10 GMT November 9, 2006
Lets not get carried away with all this stale news re China etc. It has been going on for years. Euro/yen 7 years ago was arouind 90 do we really want to be sucked into establishing a lonng euro/yen position 151+ for 160 . I dont think so.
Authorities etc will start to quietly announce certain developments for the tail enders. These guys have been playing with the market. Just ask the next taxi driver that comes a long...imvho gl + gt Pick your r/r levels.
UK Alex 17:38 GMT November 9, 2006
van Gecko 17:33 GMT November 9, 2006
Jason Evans, head of Treasurys trading at Deutsche Bank in New York said, traders have suffered "so many false starts" in terms comments from Chinese officials about the country's forex and reserves accumulation regime that the market has grown somewhat skeptical.
Says it all really...
van Gecko 17:33 GMT November 9, 2006
there are always rumors & counter rumors to create liquidity at any m/t tops & bottoms..
perhaps humming Mercer & Bloom's classic "Fools Rush In" may help..
Vienna GD 17:15 GMT November 9, 2006
Also ... besides the china talk, all the metals in the green, should also boost audusd and nzdusd ... it DOESN'T - this move stinks IMHO.
Vienna GD 16:57 GMT November 9, 2006
I don't believe that china talk ... that's not the way china acts. Yet i think some big boyz want to crack some eurusd options.
And honestly - i think this could well be the blowoff mode in the jpy crosses a la eurjpy, chfjpy etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see a surprise selloff in those jpy crosses within the next 10 days.
van Gecko 16:52 GMT November 9, 2006
Montreal EW 16:15.. imo eur/jpy plays a more prominent role as a guide dog for usd/jpy.. but you may have a case there with so many looking for a euro break..
GVI Jay 16:44 GMT November 9, 2006
This was posted on GVI:
Tor Pumpkin 16:24 GMT November 9, 2006
out 3 mins ago:
FRANKFURT-CHINA CENBANK CHIEF ZHOU SAYS CHINA HAS A VERY CLEAR PLAN TO DIVERSIFY RESERVES
Montreal EW 16:15 GMT November 9, 2006
van Gecko 12:38 GMT November 9, 2006
Gecko, can i ask for clarification? so you are saying that eurjpy is not leading the path of usd anymore?
and, is it under your consideration as well that given the scenario of eurjpy in tight range but euro flies and usdjpy tanks?
van Gecko 14:35 GMT November 9, 2006
"hong kong nt 07:28 GMT October 17, 2006
.... Learn to mind your own business may make life a lot easier..."
hong kong nt 14:24 GMT..
there you go again!
suffering from itchy "foot_in_the_mouth_titist" again?? LOL
hong kong nt 14:24 GMT November 9, 2006
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 9, 2006
very vivid description, if someone likes to publish a comedy on FX, you must be one of the best candidate...
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 9, 2006
GBP due for a bull flush..
below 1.8938 her majesty may showcase her Olympic Double Reverse Back Flip..
1.8938 ---->1.8698 -->1.8538
van Gecko 13:40 GMT November 9, 2006
118.08->118.38
118.88 next..
San Juan Lil 13:38 GMT November 9, 2006
Thanks soooo much to my angel, LahoreFM and my captain, van Gecko and PerryCuomo for giving me the confidence to trade the untradable, $Y... I am long since 118 for keeps and with a stop close to entry.
GL/GT to all
van Gecko 12:38 GMT November 9, 2006
euro--usd/jpy--eur/jpy
1.28 --- 118--- 151
1.25 --- 121--- 151*
1.20 --- 123--- 148*
1.18 --- 127--- 150
expect eur/jpy to remain in a tight mid-term range teasing bulls & bears while the Dollar fly..
van Gecko 07:38 GMT November 9, 2006
Usd/Jpy mini Slings basing above 116.88 & 117.68.. above 118.08 expect the Dollar to fly ->118.38 ~>118.88 near term..
Yellow metal ->600/605
China President, Other Leaders.... to Tame Yellow River
If China decides to convert 10% of their reserves, i.e. USD 100 billion into euros and this forces the EUR/USD rate to move 5 big figures (4% depreciation) the gain for the PBOC is USD 4 billion
But what about the impact on the balance?
Let’s say there is a further USD 600 billion of USD reserves, these depreciate then USD 24 billion versus the euro.
It’s a bit like the old euphemism “You owe the bank a $ 1million you have a problem, you owe the bank USD 100 million they have a problem”.
U.K. J.B. 21:10 GMT November 9, 2006
Lets not get carried away with all this stale news re China etc. It has been going on for years. Euro/yen 7 years ago was arouind 90 do we really want to be sucked into establishing a lonng euro/yen position 151+ for 160 . I dont think so.
Authorities etc will start to quietly announce certain developments for the tail enders. These guys have been playing with the market. Just ask the next taxi driver that comes a long...imvho gl + gt Pick your r/r levels.
UK Alex 17:38 GMT November 9, 2006
van Gecko 17:33 GMT November 9, 2006
Jason Evans, head of Treasurys trading at Deutsche Bank in New York said, traders have suffered "so many false starts" in terms comments from Chinese officials about the country's forex and reserves accumulation regime that the market has grown somewhat skeptical.
Says it all really...
van Gecko 17:33 GMT November 9, 2006
there are always rumors & counter rumors to create liquidity at any m/t tops & bottoms..
perhaps humming Mercer & Bloom's classic "Fools Rush In" may help..
Vienna GD 17:15 GMT November 9, 2006
Also ... besides the china talk, all the metals in the green, should also boost audusd and nzdusd ... it DOESN'T - this move stinks IMHO.
Vienna GD 16:57 GMT November 9, 2006
I don't believe that china talk ... that's not the way china acts. Yet i think some big boyz want to crack some eurusd options.
And honestly - i think this could well be the blowoff mode in the jpy crosses a la eurjpy, chfjpy etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see a surprise selloff in those jpy crosses within the next 10 days.
van Gecko 16:52 GMT November 9, 2006
Montreal EW 16:15.. imo eur/jpy plays a more prominent role as a guide dog for usd/jpy.. but you may have a case there with so many looking for a euro break..
GVI Jay 16:44 GMT November 9, 2006
This was posted on GVI:
Tor Pumpkin 16:24 GMT November 9, 2006
out 3 mins ago:
FRANKFURT-CHINA CENBANK CHIEF ZHOU SAYS CHINA HAS A VERY CLEAR PLAN TO DIVERSIFY RESERVES
Montreal EW 16:15 GMT November 9, 2006
van Gecko 12:38 GMT November 9, 2006
Gecko, can i ask for clarification? so you are saying that eurjpy is not leading the path of usd anymore?
and, is it under your consideration as well that given the scenario of eurjpy in tight range but euro flies and usdjpy tanks?
van Gecko 14:35 GMT November 9, 2006
"hong kong nt 07:28 GMT October 17, 2006
.... Learn to mind your own business may make life a lot easier..."
hong kong nt 14:24 GMT..
there you go again!
suffering from itchy "foot_in_the_mouth_titist" again?? LOL
hong kong nt 14:24 GMT November 9, 2006
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 9, 2006
very vivid description, if someone likes to publish a comedy on FX, you must be one of the best candidate...
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 9, 2006
GBP due for a bull flush..
below 1.8938 her majesty may showcase her Olympic Double Reverse Back Flip..
1.8938 ---->1.8698 -->1.8538
van Gecko 13:40 GMT November 9, 2006
118.08->118.38
118.88 next..
San Juan Lil 13:38 GMT November 9, 2006
Thanks soooo much to my angel, LahoreFM and my captain, van Gecko and PerryCuomo for giving me the confidence to trade the untradable, $Y... I am long since 118 for keeps and with a stop close to entry.
GL/GT to all
van Gecko 12:38 GMT November 9, 2006
euro--usd/jpy--eur/jpy
1.28 --- 118--- 151
1.25 --- 121--- 151*
1.20 --- 123--- 148*
1.18 --- 127--- 150
expect eur/jpy to remain in a tight mid-term range teasing bulls & bears while the Dollar fly..
van Gecko 07:38 GMT November 9, 2006
Usd/Jpy mini Slings basing above 116.88 & 117.68.. above 118.08 expect the Dollar to fly ->118.38 ~>118.88 near term..
Yellow metal ->600/605
China President, Other Leaders.... to Tame Yellow River
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Syd 20:52 GMT November 8, 2006
Gold Falls Most in Two Weeks on Speculation Rally Was Overdone
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aPMXp2E_f.2c&refer=australia
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 8, 2006
the natural n/t magnet for the yellow metal is 600/05.. & 585 s/t.. Yellow River's Health Continues to Decline
gold@624
Gold Falls Most in Two Weeks on Speculation Rally Was Overdone
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aPMXp2E_f.2c&refer=australia
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 8, 2006
the natural n/t magnet for the yellow metal is 600/05.. & 585 s/t.. Yellow River's Health Continues to Decline
gold@624
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
PHX RuGO 07:14 GMT November 7, 2006
van Gecko 07:09 GMT November 7, 2006
Pearls of wisdom and then some...
van Gecko 07:08 GMT November 7, 2006
PHX RuGO 06:50.. the quest for knowledge to gain that edge is an elusive process.. but contrary to popular preceptions, the odds are stacked against most of us right from day one in this game.. as the sad true here is "you either have it.. or you don't.."
PHX RuGO 06:50 GMT November 7, 2006
Well, different is good... but I doubt it serves a purpose if the market does not embrace different ideas (call this a practical blend of Everett M. Rogers’ Innovator Theory and Geoffrey A. Moore’s Chasm Theory). However, in this case I am more concerned with the mechanics rather than the concept… just like saying, “I enjoy the cocktail, but how do I make it?”
van Gecko 06:43 GMT November 7, 2006
PHX RuGO 06:29.. if the majority playing in this game are losers & are brain-washed to talk & do the same boring conventional losing stuffs.. then the minority with an playing edge must be doing & talking something different.. no ?
PHX RuGO 06:29 GMT November 7, 2006
van Gecko 06:08 GMT November 7, 2006
Thanks you for the advice... risk management comes a bit easier than “forward thinking BS”… which may explain why I’m still at a loss with the term “Singapore Sling”. Maybe when you have the time, you can point me in the right direction!? tia
van Gecko 06:08 GMT November 7, 2006
PHX RuGO 05:35.. gaining an edge in this game is all about risk management & some forward thinking BS.. LOL
PHX RuGO 05:35 GMT November 7, 2006
van Gecko 05:31 GMT November 7, 2006
---
lolzz, there's no half-measures about that statement...
van Gecko 05:31 GMT November 7, 2006
expect choking across the board.. fxwiwW
las vegas DJS 05:31 GMT November 7, 2006
Very confident that short term like 4-8 hours take profit at 9118. Longer view within 24 hours take profit at 9195. Take this to the bank in my opinion!
PHX RuGO 05:24 GMT November 7, 2006
Yep... it is conceivable that EURGBP will choke right about here. Too early to tell. Any thoughts? tia
euro@1.2772, GBP@1.9058, usd/jpy@117.66
van Gecko 07:09 GMT November 7, 2006
Pearls of wisdom and then some...
van Gecko 07:08 GMT November 7, 2006
PHX RuGO 06:50.. the quest for knowledge to gain that edge is an elusive process.. but contrary to popular preceptions, the odds are stacked against most of us right from day one in this game.. as the sad true here is "you either have it.. or you don't.."
PHX RuGO 06:50 GMT November 7, 2006
Well, different is good... but I doubt it serves a purpose if the market does not embrace different ideas (call this a practical blend of Everett M. Rogers’ Innovator Theory and Geoffrey A. Moore’s Chasm Theory). However, in this case I am more concerned with the mechanics rather than the concept… just like saying, “I enjoy the cocktail, but how do I make it?”
van Gecko 06:43 GMT November 7, 2006
PHX RuGO 06:29.. if the majority playing in this game are losers & are brain-washed to talk & do the same boring conventional losing stuffs.. then the minority with an playing edge must be doing & talking something different.. no ?
PHX RuGO 06:29 GMT November 7, 2006
van Gecko 06:08 GMT November 7, 2006
Thanks you for the advice... risk management comes a bit easier than “forward thinking BS”… which may explain why I’m still at a loss with the term “Singapore Sling”. Maybe when you have the time, you can point me in the right direction!? tia
van Gecko 06:08 GMT November 7, 2006
PHX RuGO 05:35.. gaining an edge in this game is all about risk management & some forward thinking BS.. LOL
PHX RuGO 05:35 GMT November 7, 2006
van Gecko 05:31 GMT November 7, 2006
---
lolzz, there's no half-measures about that statement...
van Gecko 05:31 GMT November 7, 2006
expect choking across the board.. fxwiwW
las vegas DJS 05:31 GMT November 7, 2006
Very confident that short term like 4-8 hours take profit at 9118. Longer view within 24 hours take profit at 9195. Take this to the bank in my opinion!
PHX RuGO 05:24 GMT November 7, 2006
Yep... it is conceivable that EURGBP will choke right about here. Too early to tell. Any thoughts? tia
euro@1.2772, GBP@1.9058, usd/jpy@117.66
Friday, November 03, 2006
GVI Jay 13:37 GMT November 4, 2006
Buenos Aires. It was in the late 80s and post Plaza Accord and being short dollars over any weekend was a near sure win. Well, this one was an exception. European finance officials had enough of US benign neglect over dollar weakness and met secretly in Glleneagles Scotland over the weekend. They issued a statement against a further weaknening of the dollar and you can guess the rest. A 5% gap opening higher was enough to cause a panic.
GVI Jay 23:31 GMT November 3, 2006
For the record, it was 10 big figures. $/dm closed Friday at 1.9850 and and opened at 2.06 and gapped to over 2.08. It didn't move that way because the market was long (meaning market was very short).
GVI john 21:38 GMT November 3, 2006
BA-- seven big figures in $/dm after the Gleneagles Summit. Longest and worst night of my life?
Buenos Aires 20:49 GMT November 3, 2006
to the old forex traders...
which is the largest Monday gap (related to Friday closing) that you ever see in the different pairs?
SA Mouwati 17:14 GMT November 3, 2006
seriously speaking, a risk of about a fig in euro is worth a dozen big figures if this crap (oh Sorry Mr Elliot) comes out true. Spent about goddamn 6 hours yday figuring out all possible scenarios and cannot but short this euro pair. if someone would take my crazy view seriously, then yen at 125 and euro at 116 soon are just the first of many further levels. glgt
SA Mouwati 16:57 GMT November 3, 2006
London Iain 16:19 GMT November 3, 2006
tks mate. But what is interesting is you have pushed the stop above 1.29. Honestly if i see 1.2850 bid, i would call this wave-B-theory-top a bad call and would reckon a 5 wave upmove towards the previous high. Surprisingly, in both euro and cable, all downmoves are 5 waves and all upmoves are 3. And just cannot figure out how on earth should these pairs rally.
Gold coast Martin 16:27 GMT November 3, 2006
before the US election pushing pushing the euro has got no R/R....G WEEKEND TO ALL
van Gecko 15:22 GMT November 3, 2006
"October 30, 2006
Usd/Jpy Singapore Sling @10/30
After setting new highs in October, the dollar is teasing the bears again by doing a 3 yen liquidity dip to m/t support here prior to another go at the 120's..
The Dollar turning up anywhere within this 117/116 m/t support band would have very bullish implications as it would form a mini Sling within the main m/t Singapore Sling formation retargeting 120+ near term with potential upside acceleration up to the 121.50/122 zones.."
PorkChopTitist FX BBQ
Nice mini Sling taking shape here..
Usd/Jpy @118 rising from 116.60 support
van Gecko 14:47 GMT November 3, 2006
"14:19 GMT November 2, 2006
Top feeders are trying vely hard to sustain the Conti cousins momentum or risk daily Reverse Somersault Fractals.."
now the daily Reverse Somersault Fractals are turning into Weekly Gravestones..
van Gecko 13:41 GMT November 3, 2006
market has a way of moving in mysterious ways as too many was calling the the recent move as Easy money One way street..
Philadelphia Caba 13:36 GMT November 3, 2006
why to care about NFP anymore? too easy to manipulate...
euro @1.27 GBP @1.90 after the NFP release
Cannes Oil man 12:26 GMT November 3, 2006
Gecko : Might work all right, particularly if 1.2820 doesn't break..
At the end of the day, might be lots of people holding positions from High/lows (people shorting from 1.27 or longing from 1.27).
van Gecko 12:18 GMT November 3, 2006
Cannes Oil man 11:33..
OG.. not nimble enough to do precision micro/mini term S/R bombings these days..:)
selling the Dollar within this 85/84 band & below 84 posts too much risk & not enough reward for me..
" 12:39 GMT July 27, 2006
Manila Tom.. hope you're fine.. its nice to have opposing views as it keep things in prespective.. that being said, for me with the USD Index 400 basis points above a recent multi-year low, the risk of selling the Dollar mid-term out weight the potential reward.. so to keep it simple, above USDX 84 buy & hold the Dollar for mid to long term with trade & risk mangement tactics to suit individual styles.. load up above 87 with weekly confirmation.. & go snooze or play with caution between 84-80.. hope it helps.."
hong kong nt 11:38.. hmm.. what make you think I would do that?
are you inferring that you're the "master at pea-shooting" with your response to my 11:22 ? LOL
Cannes Oil man 11:46 GMT November 3, 2006
I was long during the week (as per newsletter longed each time we got close to 60, lowest was 58 entry) , however I have released yesterday , as it just doesn't break upside, and everyone is waiting for NFP , to finish the $ , or just buy $..At the moment the market is readying itself to go long $'s , the surprise will be if the market has to SELL $ even more , and a huge break follows..
I am going to buy breaks (near 1.2815) , as i am already short $ via canada..
Today , buying LOW's of the week (1.2740-60) is quite dangerous as a move there will probably make it just continue to the downside..
A break or die situation:Particularly on a friday with a low volatility for the whole week (Stop built up on both sides)..
gl
hong kong nt 11:38 GMT November 3, 2006
van Gecko 11:22 GMT November 3, 2006
feel free to call me nuts...LOL
Cannes Oil man 11:33 GMT November 3, 2006
At what rate you fold the cards , to go long Gecko?
Where's the point in your eyes the $ has to be sold?
We can all make wrong shots, just wondering where your risk reversal will be?
Good luck mate.
van Gecko 11:22 GMT November 3, 2006
pea-shoot predictions running rampant ahead of tonight's NFP party..
looks like the moon is exerting its lunatic influences again.. ;)
hong kong nt 11:09 GMT November 3, 2006
EURO 1.28 3Q maybe today's high, SWISS 1.235 maybe today's low, CABLE 1.92Q maybe today's high, YEN 115 3Q maybe today's low and A$ 0.77 3Q maybe today's high...
hong kong nt 10:43 GMT November 3, 2006
Likely to see 115 yen to trigger massive stops tonight...
van Gecko 07:50 GMT November 3, 2006
well.. nt, its different strokes for different folks.. not much of a one line pea shooter here.. but if you insist... LOL
hong kong nt 07:32 GMT November 3, 2006
no need to type so many lines, simply type "bad trades to you" ... LOL
van Gecko 07:18 GMT November 3, 2006
hong kong nt 07:02.. good to see you're having so much fun playing yellow metal straddles while most players seems to h'i$$ away oodles of option premiums into a worthless pile of time decay noodles.. ;)
hong kong nt 07:02 GMT November 3, 2006
van Gecko 06:48 GMT November 3, 2006
vely interesting to see goldbugs hoarding the yellow metal these past few days..
perhaps, up or down doesn't really matter to bulls as they maybe taking nice profit on spot front and quietly buying 600/640 straddle. hope to see your 550/500 soon and get $50/100 profit from 600 put...
van Gecko 06:48 GMT November 3, 2006
Vienna GD & Perrie Como.. vely interesting lunatic activities clustered around the full moon days.. had been paying attention to this phenomenon for many moons now.. the market usually come alive when the dogs & wolfs start howling.. ^_^
vely interesting to see goldbugs hoarding the yellow metal these past few days..
Buenos Aires. It was in the late 80s and post Plaza Accord and being short dollars over any weekend was a near sure win. Well, this one was an exception. European finance officials had enough of US benign neglect over dollar weakness and met secretly in Glleneagles Scotland over the weekend. They issued a statement against a further weaknening of the dollar and you can guess the rest. A 5% gap opening higher was enough to cause a panic.
GVI Jay 23:31 GMT November 3, 2006
For the record, it was 10 big figures. $/dm closed Friday at 1.9850 and and opened at 2.06 and gapped to over 2.08. It didn't move that way because the market was long (meaning market was very short).
GVI john 21:38 GMT November 3, 2006
BA-- seven big figures in $/dm after the Gleneagles Summit. Longest and worst night of my life?
Buenos Aires 20:49 GMT November 3, 2006
to the old forex traders...
which is the largest Monday gap (related to Friday closing) that you ever see in the different pairs?
SA Mouwati 17:14 GMT November 3, 2006
seriously speaking, a risk of about a fig in euro is worth a dozen big figures if this crap (oh Sorry Mr Elliot) comes out true. Spent about goddamn 6 hours yday figuring out all possible scenarios and cannot but short this euro pair. if someone would take my crazy view seriously, then yen at 125 and euro at 116 soon are just the first of many further levels. glgt
SA Mouwati 16:57 GMT November 3, 2006
London Iain 16:19 GMT November 3, 2006
tks mate. But what is interesting is you have pushed the stop above 1.29. Honestly if i see 1.2850 bid, i would call this wave-B-theory-top a bad call and would reckon a 5 wave upmove towards the previous high. Surprisingly, in both euro and cable, all downmoves are 5 waves and all upmoves are 3. And just cannot figure out how on earth should these pairs rally.
Gold coast Martin 16:27 GMT November 3, 2006
before the US election pushing pushing the euro has got no R/R....G WEEKEND TO ALL
van Gecko 15:22 GMT November 3, 2006
"October 30, 2006
Usd/Jpy Singapore Sling @10/30
After setting new highs in October, the dollar is teasing the bears again by doing a 3 yen liquidity dip to m/t support here prior to another go at the 120's..
The Dollar turning up anywhere within this 117/116 m/t support band would have very bullish implications as it would form a mini Sling within the main m/t Singapore Sling formation retargeting 120+ near term with potential upside acceleration up to the 121.50/122 zones.."
PorkChopTitist FX BBQ
Nice mini Sling taking shape here..
Usd/Jpy @118 rising from 116.60 support
van Gecko 14:47 GMT November 3, 2006
"14:19 GMT November 2, 2006
Top feeders are trying vely hard to sustain the Conti cousins momentum or risk daily Reverse Somersault Fractals.."
now the daily Reverse Somersault Fractals are turning into Weekly Gravestones..
van Gecko 13:41 GMT November 3, 2006
market has a way of moving in mysterious ways as too many was calling the the recent move as Easy money One way street..
Philadelphia Caba 13:36 GMT November 3, 2006
why to care about NFP anymore? too easy to manipulate...
euro @1.27 GBP @1.90 after the NFP release
Cannes Oil man 12:26 GMT November 3, 2006
Gecko : Might work all right, particularly if 1.2820 doesn't break..
At the end of the day, might be lots of people holding positions from High/lows (people shorting from 1.27 or longing from 1.27).
van Gecko 12:18 GMT November 3, 2006
Cannes Oil man 11:33..
OG.. not nimble enough to do precision micro/mini term S/R bombings these days..:)
selling the Dollar within this 85/84 band & below 84 posts too much risk & not enough reward for me..
" 12:39 GMT July 27, 2006
Manila Tom.. hope you're fine.. its nice to have opposing views as it keep things in prespective.. that being said, for me with the USD Index 400 basis points above a recent multi-year low, the risk of selling the Dollar mid-term out weight the potential reward.. so to keep it simple, above USDX 84 buy & hold the Dollar for mid to long term with trade & risk mangement tactics to suit individual styles.. load up above 87 with weekly confirmation.. & go snooze or play with caution between 84-80.. hope it helps.."
hong kong nt 11:38.. hmm.. what make you think I would do that?
are you inferring that you're the "master at pea-shooting" with your response to my 11:22 ? LOL
Cannes Oil man 11:46 GMT November 3, 2006
I was long during the week (as per newsletter longed each time we got close to 60, lowest was 58 entry) , however I have released yesterday , as it just doesn't break upside, and everyone is waiting for NFP , to finish the $ , or just buy $..At the moment the market is readying itself to go long $'s , the surprise will be if the market has to SELL $ even more , and a huge break follows..
I am going to buy breaks (near 1.2815) , as i am already short $ via canada..
Today , buying LOW's of the week (1.2740-60) is quite dangerous as a move there will probably make it just continue to the downside..
A break or die situation:Particularly on a friday with a low volatility for the whole week (Stop built up on both sides)..
gl
hong kong nt 11:38 GMT November 3, 2006
van Gecko 11:22 GMT November 3, 2006
feel free to call me nuts...LOL
Cannes Oil man 11:33 GMT November 3, 2006
At what rate you fold the cards , to go long Gecko?
Where's the point in your eyes the $ has to be sold?
We can all make wrong shots, just wondering where your risk reversal will be?
Good luck mate.
van Gecko 11:22 GMT November 3, 2006
pea-shoot predictions running rampant ahead of tonight's NFP party..
looks like the moon is exerting its lunatic influences again.. ;)
hong kong nt 11:09 GMT November 3, 2006
EURO 1.28 3Q maybe today's high, SWISS 1.235 maybe today's low, CABLE 1.92Q maybe today's high, YEN 115 3Q maybe today's low and A$ 0.77 3Q maybe today's high...
hong kong nt 10:43 GMT November 3, 2006
Likely to see 115 yen to trigger massive stops tonight...
van Gecko 07:50 GMT November 3, 2006
well.. nt, its different strokes for different folks.. not much of a one line pea shooter here.. but if you insist... LOL
hong kong nt 07:32 GMT November 3, 2006
no need to type so many lines, simply type "bad trades to you" ... LOL
van Gecko 07:18 GMT November 3, 2006
hong kong nt 07:02.. good to see you're having so much fun playing yellow metal straddles while most players seems to h'i$$ away oodles of option premiums into a worthless pile of time decay noodles.. ;)
hong kong nt 07:02 GMT November 3, 2006
van Gecko 06:48 GMT November 3, 2006
vely interesting to see goldbugs hoarding the yellow metal these past few days..
perhaps, up or down doesn't really matter to bulls as they maybe taking nice profit on spot front and quietly buying 600/640 straddle. hope to see your 550/500 soon and get $50/100 profit from 600 put...
van Gecko 06:48 GMT November 3, 2006
Vienna GD & Perrie Como.. vely interesting lunatic activities clustered around the full moon days.. had been paying attention to this phenomenon for many moons now.. the market usually come alive when the dogs & wolfs start howling.. ^_^
vely interesting to see goldbugs hoarding the yellow metal these past few days..
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Tallinn viies 22:37 GMT November 2, 2006
DOLLAR: FX strategists at Morgan Stanley have reestablished a short
euro position and a short Aussie position vs the dollar around current
levels. They have a downside target of $1.2400 and $0.7400 respectively,
with stops at $1.2915 and $0.7810. "Our sense is that investors
overreacted to soft Q3 US GDP and priced in too much of a risk for Fed
easing," the strategists say. Morgan Stanley looks for the Fed to keep
rates steady in December, but to maintain a hawkish bias. "As a result,
we like dollar longs ahead of that decision and key US data like
payrolls," the strategists say.
Tallinn viies 19:39 GMT November 2, 2006
good numbers tommorow from US may help usd but they should be very good to get euro falling.
so far markets have been keeping themselves back with dollar selling due to the good NFP expectations.
if they come as expected dollar may fall apart (uuh), I mean 1,2920-30 level...
Madrid mm 19:40 GMT November 2, 2006
Hedge Funds Are Tempted to Let Loose Dogs of Risk: Mark Gilbert By Mark GilbertNov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- You promised investors 15 percent, 20 percent, 25 percent returns. You took their money, subtracted your 2 percent fee, cranked up the spreadsheet and rolled your balls on the global roulette wheels.Click here
jkt-aye 14:27 GMT November 2, 2006
Good Morning Gecko ... for me it sound like what Dirty Harry always say "make my day" lol, gt.
van Gecko 14:19 GMT November 2, 2006
Top feeders are trying vely hard to sustain the Conti cousins momentum or risk daily Reverse Somersault Fractals..
euro @ 1.2766 GBP @ 1.9086
van Gecko 07:08 GMT November 2, 2006
Shanghai 05:54.. good Eur/Gbp read.. some more work on patiences & conviction & your destiny may not be beyond control after all.. ;) Once the Eur/Gbp downside acceleration kicks in with the next leg of dollar strength, her majesty may regain her lead Olympic diving forms by default..gl
Shanghai beyond_destiny 05:54 GMT November 2, 2006
market is anticipating for the ECB decision and accompanied statement. Euro may drop sharply if rate on hold and no further indication of 'certain' rate hike in next meeting.
Short euro 1.2785/1.2805 t/p 1.254
Cable is well support by psy# 1.9 and short eurgbp around .67 to t/p large downsid(long holding) after break of 1.5/.6667 ...could be the best carry of 2007
DOLLAR: FX strategists at Morgan Stanley have reestablished a short
euro position and a short Aussie position vs the dollar around current
levels. They have a downside target of $1.2400 and $0.7400 respectively,
with stops at $1.2915 and $0.7810. "Our sense is that investors
overreacted to soft Q3 US GDP and priced in too much of a risk for Fed
easing," the strategists say. Morgan Stanley looks for the Fed to keep
rates steady in December, but to maintain a hawkish bias. "As a result,
we like dollar longs ahead of that decision and key US data like
payrolls," the strategists say.
Tallinn viies 19:39 GMT November 2, 2006
good numbers tommorow from US may help usd but they should be very good to get euro falling.
so far markets have been keeping themselves back with dollar selling due to the good NFP expectations.
if they come as expected dollar may fall apart (uuh), I mean 1,2920-30 level...
Madrid mm 19:40 GMT November 2, 2006
Hedge Funds Are Tempted to Let Loose Dogs of Risk: Mark Gilbert By Mark GilbertNov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- You promised investors 15 percent, 20 percent, 25 percent returns. You took their money, subtracted your 2 percent fee, cranked up the spreadsheet and rolled your balls on the global roulette wheels.Click here
jkt-aye 14:27 GMT November 2, 2006
Good Morning Gecko ... for me it sound like what Dirty Harry always say "make my day" lol, gt.
van Gecko 14:19 GMT November 2, 2006
Top feeders are trying vely hard to sustain the Conti cousins momentum or risk daily Reverse Somersault Fractals..
euro @ 1.2766 GBP @ 1.9086
van Gecko 07:08 GMT November 2, 2006
Shanghai 05:54.. good Eur/Gbp read.. some more work on patiences & conviction & your destiny may not be beyond control after all.. ;) Once the Eur/Gbp downside acceleration kicks in with the next leg of dollar strength, her majesty may regain her lead Olympic diving forms by default..gl
Shanghai beyond_destiny 05:54 GMT November 2, 2006
market is anticipating for the ECB decision and accompanied statement. Euro may drop sharply if rate on hold and no further indication of 'certain' rate hike in next meeting.
Short euro 1.2785/1.2805 t/p 1.254
Cable is well support by psy# 1.9 and short eurgbp around .67 to t/p large downsid(long holding) after break of 1.5/.6667 ...could be the best carry of 2007
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
U.K. J.B 17:51 GMT October 31.. thx..
Johannesburg Whippet 18:54 GMT October 31.. your pleasant description for forum members here as "weird, retarded, & shitgoblins" are in direct conflict with "Whippet" temperament.. I suspect your breeders must have crossed up somewhere..
FYI.. that "Wall Street Gekko" and yours truly's handle are two different breed.. the former is depicted as ruthless whereas the other is linked to survival..
lots of Quacking going on.. close to 80dB noise levels across the board..
"April 23, 2006
.. the c9 indicator (c9X) is a subset of my 'Quacking Duck Contrarian' (QDC) indicator..
As with the QDC, c9X usually occurs after the market had made a move to some intermediate or short term high/low levels..
Good risk adjusted short & mid term fading opportunities can be have in addition to its exuberant hindsight cheerleading values.. "
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
Johannesburg Whippet 18:54 GMT October 31.. your pleasant description for forum members here as "weird, retarded, & shitgoblins" are in direct conflict with "Whippet" temperament.. I suspect your breeders must have crossed up somewhere..
FYI.. that "Wall Street Gekko" and yours truly's handle are two different breed.. the former is depicted as ruthless whereas the other is linked to survival..
lots of Quacking going on.. close to 80dB noise levels across the board..
"April 23, 2006
.. the c9 indicator (c9X) is a subset of my 'Quacking Duck Contrarian' (QDC) indicator..
As with the QDC, c9X usually occurs after the market had made a move to some intermediate or short term high/low levels..
Good risk adjusted short & mid term fading opportunities can be have in addition to its exuberant hindsight cheerleading values.. "
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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