Gecko Global Analytics

Helsinki iw 08:32 GMT November 27, 2006
Looks like a correction is about to happen, sub 1.30 should be a good buy (or bye?). And wouldn't you know, induced by a French politician. Amazing levels of credibility these guys still have.


van Gecko 07:52 GMT November 27, 2006
St. Annaland Bob 07:25..
forecasting & trading with a bias view is two different ball of wax.. right or wrong, one must have risk adjusted trade bias to take some real money out of the market whereas survival in this cesspool is dependent on one's trade & risk management skills.. the alternative may be to go with the "flow" where money usually flows out of an account faster then the occasional bits that flows in.. cheerios


St. Annaland Bob 07:25 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko
friend, all the forecast business is yours...I thank vols for coming back and only trade...happy trades!

van Gecko 07:15 GMT November 27, 2006
gvm.. watch you left flank & teach your system to keep an eye on USDX 83.50 like a hawk..
Bob.. I see you're starting to hum the tune already .. guess the Queen has your numbers now..;)


St. Annaland Bob 07:04 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko 06:57 GMT November 27, 2006
it's very possible, but '05's 1.16 may come out as '07's 1.30...happy trades

sydney gvm 07:03 GMT November 27, 2006
hey van Gecko are you a dollar bull these days or just cynical of 'irrational [illiquid?] exuberance' of last week? My system is short dollars across a number of currencies and long the metals and I am fighting the urge to over ride it/take profits early in the month end week so I can take some fees on Dec1


van Gecko 06:57 GMT November 27, 2006
if you like those "few paragraphs of context" wait till you start hearing "American Bye".. the November'04 Anthem of Dollar Bears.. ;)


Cbj Jake 06:37 GMT November 27, 2006
MTL JP - Thanks for that JP. It's refreshing to have a few paragraphs of context

van Gecko 06:30 GMT November 27, 2006
Mtl J'Pipski 06:21.. sounds like he want to be a front running quacking turkey with that piece.. LOL
anyways.. my Quacking Ducking Noise Index is starting to look vely interesting across the board..


Mtl JP 06:21 GMT November 27, 2006
Peter Schiff's The U.S. Dollar is the Week’s Biggest Turkey


van Gecko 06:17 GMT November 27, 2006
austin mw 06:10.. what is his track record? pretty desperate sounding piece there..

austin mw 06:10 GMT November 27, 2006
A short paragraph off Reuters.. If this outcome is correct I don't think it much matters who owns what..

The only thing that is worse than holding dollars today is holding an obligation to pay you dollars in the future," or a dollar-denominated bond, says Peter Schiff, president and chief global strategist with Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.
"I think it is going to be a rout," he said.
Over about a two-year period, if the dollar were to shed half its current value and foreign accounts were to start actively selling U.S. government bonds, as Schiff expects, "eventually, Treasury yields will be well north of 10 percent," he said.


van Gecko 06:08 GMT November 27, 2006
HK RF@ 05:55.. on the contrary, Dollar/Yen had held its ground rather well in view of the "carnage" inflicted on euro & cousin GBP over the last days.. the 115/116 m/t support is intact & unless eur/jap & gbp/jap fall off the cliff into mid-term neverland from here, imo sub 115 will just be an over-stretched nightmare in the dreams of those still hoping to hit a 110 lotto jackpot.. fwiwW


HK RF@ 05:55 GMT November 27, 2006
I don't find yet a signal of reversal for the nominal downtrend of the Yen. The odds for price sinking below 114 are still there, maybe this week.
Thus buying USD/Yen carrys a risk. It is important to confirm a trend reversal before selling yen for m/t target.
Lucky and wise are those able to catch with the s/t Ret.


van Gecko 05:50 GMT November 27, 2006
Vancouver Mike.. we need some colour to make the trading days interesting..;) can you imagine a snoozy market plus a snoozy forum where everyone post like some pip'less robots the usual sterotype ideas of "sell xxx stop yyy target zzz" ? I like Zeus speaks..
btw.. is Whistler/Blackcomb open for skiing yet?

Vancouver Mike 05:31 GMT November 27, 2006
USA Zeus
austin mw//
Guys can we please stop with the petty exchanges.

austin mw 05:28 GMT November 27, 2006
USA Zeus 05:17 GMT November 27, 2006
yes and admit i was wrong minus 114 pips but at
least i speak clearly and in fork tongue.. gl gt and best
of all gr...

USA Zeus 05:17 GMT November 27, 2006
austin mw 04:35 GMT November 27, 2006
Some humor for Austin MW to laugh about while he has a bone to pick (among other problems). And no you don’t need to do the math, count on other posted shorts in the forum, weak French data or retail shoppers. Miss the forest and you get your legs chopped at the knees like trees while you say go longhorns sitting on the beach while dreaming of others trading in Switzerland-


van Gecko 05:18 GMT November 27, 2006
ab.. may be you should thank yourself instead.. for you might had turn "red" back then & missed all those profits on the yellow metal.. LOL

hk ab 05:09 GMT November 27, 2006
BIG thanks, gecko. I have truly missed that invaluable piece.

van Gecko 05:05 GMT November 27, 2006
hk ab 02:26.. Oil man is snoozing in Cannes.. in case you missed it this was his advice to you earlier on gold.. may be he is looking for oil & gold to fly with euro & GBP now..

"Cannes Oil man 06:23 GMT September 29, 2006
Ab, not sure why u re looking for upside in gold..
Gold has been driven to 700 by specs from 400, same applies to oil prices over 43.
So now everytime it jumps up a bit, you will find massive unloading by said specs who used max leverage and are getting killed , while prices are being driven down inexorably, dinging margin calls , trying to save part of their capital...Most won't even survive, what they saw as a never ending move to the upside and because of said leverage their margin is flying into the skies."


USA Zeus 04:59 GMT November 27, 2006
Here is a little bit of “h-i-n-d-s-i-g-h-t thematic posts from the US shore”
For little China and those ignorant defiants in Austin LOL-


van Gecko 04:45 GMT November 27, 2006
re. 04:24 GMT.. its certainly not a secret to be rich by being stupid.. I guess if the poor are the smart guys and the rich are stupid, then most of us wants to be stupid.. no?


austin mw 04:35 GMT November 27, 2006
hk ab 04:33 GMT November 27, 2006
LOL... very true

hk ab 04:33 GMT November 27, 2006
Gecko, you need to understand the word h-i-n-d-s-i-g-h-t before we read the "thematic posts" from the US shore......
In fact, I am looking forward to see his bk in bookstore soon.


van Gecko 04:26 GMT November 27, 2006
USA Zeus 03:51.. sounds like a vely profitable plan..
as the flow away from the dollar seems to be just intensifing so what had changed from a few figs ago for you to be slicing out those dollar shorts now?

hong kong nt 04:24 GMT November 27, 2006
SECRET REVEALED: C9 is richer than most may imagine. One of my monitored C9 made another twenty millions margin deposit to sell more gold at 640 (she calls for double tops on daily!)...


USA Zeus 03:51 GMT November 27, 2006
van Gecko
Actually slicing out of those shorts as was selling those USD's a few figs ago- all part of the plan.


van Gecko 03:41 GMT November 27, 2006
Zeus 03:27.. are you selling the "post Pelosi dollar" with close eys now?
looks like some europhiles who didn't go long the euro with closed eyes last Friday down @1.3060 are buying around here as they don't want to be left with holding the pip'less bag watching euro shot-up another 5 figs to 1.36.. or even worst, climb another 10 figs to 1.40 !
;)
"08:46 GMT November 24, 2006
iw.. at the rate its going up you might not get any pullback.. better load up here for the 1.36 boat.."


USA Zeus 03:27 GMT November 27, 2006
Sydney ACC 02:56 GMT November 27, 2006
Everyone has a reason to explain price. Not that it really matters since price is all we need.
However, since everyone seems to find a reason here is mine-

It's all part of the US stagnation post Pelosi Democratic non-productive agenda election. Thus, as a consequence the US gets what it asked for and the world responds with a tick down in global confidence. This has been my view since the election and the market has been up to peculiar reshuffling prior to these blowout movements- all part of the plan IMVHO.


Sydney ACC 02:56 GMT November 27, 2006
An extract from am Commonwealth Bank report issued today:
The reasons for the recent US dollar sell-off do not appear justified with the recent fundamental events. The US dollar sell off appears to be a short-term overshoot. Neither the stockmarket nor the bond market has reacted in the same way as the currency market to the same news about a downgrading of US economic growth. The actual downgrade comes as no major surprise (virtually all forecasters have downgraded their US GDP forecasts recently). The Fed does not appear to be entertaining a cut in interest rates in the next few months and so it is highly unlikely this current US dollar sell off will last long.


hk ab 02:26 GMT November 27, 2006
oilman, may I ask why you are not quite interested in gold?

Cannes Oil man 02:07 GMT November 27, 2006
Actually , i think lots of people are squeezed in this $ dumping..
Meaning EY , just jumped of friday's high, E$ , still well above...
As soon we get near levels that E$ and EY will look to be breaking out, the bag holders will be unloading their losses,making e$ jump up again..
Talking of bag holders of the short dollars is a wrong word...Not when E$ has been going up 500 pips in 2 days...Same to be said of GBP$...It's more : Those long Euro , might be tempted to take T/P under 1.3020..If that goes, then market might retrace a long way..However one shouldn't count on miracles when trend starts to pick up.
That said, GL to everyone and GN.

toronto amenhire 01:43 GMT November 27, 2006
who says china sold dollars maybe they bought euro options you havent lost a thing untill you really sell gi gts

Livingston nh 01:38 GMT November 27, 2006
imo the japanese have the greater effect on the USD - China is a buyer in the world mkt - the japanese hoard of USD is nearly as large as China's and they have a tradeable currency


van Gecko 01:36 GMT November 27, 2006
Acrophobia setting in for some europhiles holding boatful of longs up here..

euro @1.3150

Sydney ACC 01:35 GMT November 27, 2006
China has seen the value of its reserves diminish by almost by 2 per cent since mid-June, that is the measure of the renminbi’s appreciation against the USD. Given that the reserves in mid-June would have been approximately USD 900 billion that is a loss of USD 18 billion.
If they converted USD 100 billion into euros at 1.2600 at 1.3100 they would have saved only USD 3 billion – plus they would have foregone USD 1 billion in interest.
The PBOC have been losing more by revaluing the renminbi since June than what they would have saved converting into other currencies.
Notwithstanding the pluses and minuses of reserve manipulation to the authorities in China they need to manage social cohesion. We are witnessing today the greatest migration from rural to urban environments in the history of mankind. While many in the west have forgotten Tianamen Square in 1989, I am certain those that govern China have not and what is more they do not want that to recur.

Livingston nh 01:29 GMT November 27, 2006
the two biggest customers in the world use the USD - seems to me the PBoC is not too interested in pushing the dollar down

toronto amenhire 01:25 GMT November 27, 2006
again will see who the bagholders will be maybe you can use it on a resume. its too bad the majority are so easy to manipulate

Cannes Oil man 01:18 GMT November 27, 2006
toronto amenhire 01:09 GMT November 27, 2006
They aren't scalping the market.
They receive billions of US$ every month into their reserves via the trade surplus , they don't need to buy ANY US$..
you misunderstand that it's not a player who needs $'s , or needs $ allocation , it s receiving $'s all day..it never buys $'s..It doesn't need too..It buys US bonds only paid in $ , via their $ surplus's.

toronto amenhire 01:09 GMT November 27, 2006
if the fx market was a game of poker and it is the last thing you would do is show your hand china is bluffing as always they loaded up euros and taking profits now while working on loading up cheap dollars as we speak carrys still king would anyone in there right mind really tell the truth there the proud owner of more dollars than anyone


van Gecko 23:33 GMT November 26, 2006
Oil man.. you may be right.. lets wait & see what happens up here this week.. or later on today..

Cannes Oil man 23:28 GMT November 26, 2006
van Gecko
Isn't it always normally in winter?..
They were just waiting it looks like, when everyone got into range mode : "we re safe , let's play range"..Woom..the move picks up steam..
I was myself quite unsure about which way it would break (up or down) at first, but the bounce at 1.25 was too strong, at least to my tastes.

The other thing that makes me think is, China, with all it's talk about diversification must make all the other "little" CB's start to get out of the $ NOW, at least before the chineses do...Or they would get level's to sell their $'s WAY WAY lower than present (if china decides to do it)...

That holds for Russia, and all the other CB's that are pegged to the US..They must be looking to sell their $ BEFORE china ever does..
just a few thoughts.

van Gecko 23:23 GMT November 26, 2006
Cannes Oil man 23:13.. so you think this will be a one way street for the "fundies" from here?

Cannes Oil man 23:13 GMT November 26, 2006
van Gecko
Looks like the fundies are looking to close with a bonus and will keep pushing till there's any blood left..

van Gecko 23:07 GMT November 26, 2006
Cannes Oil man.. thanks, if euro close above 1.3150 then santa clus may be sitting with the europhilies on the boat to 1.36..

Cannes Oil man 22:57 GMT November 26, 2006
van Gecko
Even higher on E$, i saw the rush to 1.3176..Don't have the exact number cause they actually reset the numbers on the new Japan session.

van Gecko 22:55 GMT November 26, 2006
Cannes Oil man.. you have live euro fills from 1.3095 to 1.3145?

Cannes Oil man 22:45 GMT November 26, 2006
van Gecko
No gaps here..Gaps only in US brokers looks like..


van Gecko 22:39 GMT November 26, 2006
nice gap!
europhlies must think they had die & gone to heaven with euro gaping another 1/2 fig closer to 1.36 from last Friday's close..