Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Friday, April 28, 2006
van Gecko 15:01 GMT April 28, 2006
good trading opportunties spanning all time frames only exist a few times a year..
rare market abberation presenting excellent dollar values across the board for dollar long marchers.. imo every pip down here are mid term dollar in the fx piggy bank..
moscow mi 09:42..yes
Cheerios..
moscow mi 09:42 GMT April 28, 2006
van Gecko 09:39 GMT - indeed Gecko. May i ask Jay for your email also? Thanks.
Naples DC 09:40 GMT April 28, 2006
van Gecko
thanks, i'll do it
van Gecko 09:39 GMT April 28, 2006
moscow mi 08:26.. the euro/swissy twin crossing here bears no significance on the macro picture.. and you shouldn't follow anyone blindly in this biz.. not even your own mother..
gl..
KL HP 09:11.. don't know where you came from, but the market is full of 'one day chart wonders'.. keep sticking to your TA 101 views if you want to say bye to your funds.. & please try to approach the market with a bit of humility matey..
gl..
Naples DC 07:49.. get my mail addy from jay if interested..
gl.
HK REVDAX 09:22 GMT April 28, 2006
Manila Tom 09:18 //One very important ingredient is missing: the C9s are not shorting any more.
Manila Tom 09:18 GMT April 28, 2006
i think all ingredients for higher euro are here again, let's meet at Qindex's 1.2610
KL HP 09:11 GMT April 28, 2006
van Gecko 07:38 GMT April 28, 2006
please kindly advise under which condition or what levels then will you turn dollar bearish? i am sure you don't want to see money evaporates before it is too late...weekly close above 1.23 was done, 1.25/1.26 euro levels already seen, crossover euro vs swissie just did, what else do you need to raise the white flag? IMVHO, TA 101 lesson i learned was that 'trend is your friend' and 'cut your loss early, let your profit runs'
Melbourne Qindex 09:08 GMT April 28, 2006
EUR/USD : Trading Reference
... 1.2482* - 1.2503 // 1.2525* - 1.2546 - [1.2567]* - 1.289 - 1.2610* // 1.2631 - 1.2653* ...
Speculative buying interest will increase when the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the projected barrier at 1.2567 - 1.2570. The short term targeting level is 1.2610 - 1.2613.
HK REVDAX 08:57 GMT April 28, 2006
hong kong nt //What next after C9 indication? Super-C9 indication???
Melbourne Qindex 08:51 GMT April 28, 2006
USD/JPY : Trading Reference
... 112.28* - 112.66 // 113.03* - 113.41 - [113.79]* - 114.16 - 114.54* // 114.91 - 115.29* ...
The short term downside target is 113.03 - 113.07.
HK REVDAX 08:35 GMT April 28, 2006
moscow mi 08:26 //Euro/$ has just made a clear hourly divergency between yesterday and today, which suggests under normal circumstances Euro/$ is topping out here. Your trader friend is better off drinking some more volka than to be worried about the stop, albeit the latter has to be in place.
HK REVDAX 08:32 GMT April 28, 2006
Helsinki iw 08:17//The C9 indicator produces a buy signal on $/CAD. It can be just a one day rebound.
Helsinki iw 08:17 GMT April 28, 2006
The medium term level and previous high at 1,2590/00 is up next. While the slide in the dollar looks to intensify, at least to me, this level may hold it for a while as we are again somewhat overbought on EUR/USD.
USD/CAD trading very poorly at the moment and very close to the 15-year low of 1,1190/00. A break looks imminent and would target much lower levels.
moscow mi 08:26 GMT April 28, 2006
van Gecko 07:38 GMT - Hello. EURUSD & USDCHF has just crossed. I remeber your call previous time this happened on the opposite side. What changed now? I have a trader on my side following your call and sold eurousd at 1.24xx. Where would you suggest him to cut loss and cancel bearish scenario?
thanks in advance.
Naples DC 07:49 GMT April 28, 2006
van Gecko 07:38
"present inter-market conditions"
Sir, could you explain, please?
TIA
van Gecko 07:38 GMT April 28, 2006
notice an increasing number of dollar bears are starting to call for demise of the dollar with the imminent 'crossover of euro & usd/chf ' here.. what they fail to realize with their linear one dimensional assumption is that the present inter-market conditions are quite different from last May's crossover.. another TA 101 lesson unfolding in real time for the simpletons..
FwIwW..
Thursday April 27, 2006 - 22:06:50 GMT
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange -
Once again, watch for the EUR/USD to crossover the USD/CHF, or atleast come close. Previously when these 2 crosses have crossed over, the EUR/USD has continued higher, and the USD/CHF has fallen away. At the moment, the EUR/USD is trading around 1.2535, and USD/CHF at 1.2595. The 1.2560 level could be where they touch and initially back-off, but if they crossover, and close with the EUR/USD above USD/CHF then lookout for further gains next week.
Manila Tom 15:42 GMT April 27, 2006
euro should extend to 1.26 and crossover with usdchf...what a scenario to close the month and end another chapter of usd bulls' hope
Vienna GD 15:22 GMT April 27, 2006
Within the next 6-7 trading days, i expect mediumterm reversals in currencies (audusd, usdcad, eurusd, gbpusd, ...) the metals (gold, silver, copper, ...) most stocks and yields/bonds.
DYOD ... i could be wrong of course!
IF WRONG ... i will stop posting and babbling here!
Cambridge Dean of ff faculty 15:21 GMT April 27, 2006
When Prof PAR joins us, I want all those loser louts (you know who you are, and your names have been posted in the common-room), to form a looooong line, each will have his turn to kiss a certain portion of the professorial anatomy. Those who had their turn yesterday, kindly rejoin the queue at the back. No pushing in line Purk. Still rotflmao.
Singapore JBM 15:15 GMT April 27, 2006
van Gecko
thanks, anytime...gl
van Gecko 15:10 GMT April 27, 2006
hong kong nt 14:56
I had recently posted some of my c9 observations for you in the Help Forum.. please go there if you need any more help..
Singapore JBM 14:54.. i'll let you know when the time come..
gl.
hong kong nt 14:56 GMT April 27, 2006
VAN GECKO -- my 10k EURO short is bleeding, what should I do??
Singapore JBM 14:54 GMT April 27, 2006
gecko, will u switch side now? look at euro and swissie, they are almost hugging each other
KL HP 14:31 GMT April 27, 2006
bye bye usd, usdchf 1.25xx will touch and crossover with euro 1.25xx
van Gecko 06:48 GMT April 27, 2006
hong kong nt..
sorry for not responding to your affections last night as I had to leave your Quacking 'love in' party early.. in light of your recent public declaration here on your mating preference with female elephants, please try to tune down & limit your outbrusts of "I love you" to forum members as GV may be widely read global forum..
thank you for all your recent reference to yours truly.. I am flattered..
have a nice day..
Las Vegas Jon 02:32 GMT April 27, 2006
General observation-
Interesting how excited several EUR/USD bulls have become since the pair closed +24 pips yesterday. Hardly a feat of great achievement for the EUR but the noise and taunting of USD bulls on this forum is pretty loud…
hong kong nt 17:25 GMT April 26, 2006
VAN GECKO -- I start to love you. Give me a hug..
KL HP 16:40 GMT April 26, 2006
gecko, let's bring in your elephants and we can enjoy watching the tricks they can do, the ducks have got their fun time
hong kong nt 16:37 GMT April 26, 2006
van Gecko 16:30 GMT April 26, 2006
I go short Euro with you now. Let's enjoy!!!
KL HP 16:36 GMT April 26, 2006
van Gecko 16:30 GMT April 26, 2006
they say, if you can't beat them, join them :) where are the elephants?
hong kong nt 16:35 GMT April 26, 2006
van Gecko 16:30 GMT April 26, 2006
My systems generate signals favoring your downside call on Euro..Cheerios..
van Gecko 16:30 GMT April 26, 2006
whats this? a Quacking dollar bear love in ?
good trading opportunties spanning all time frames only exist a few times a year..
rare market abberation presenting excellent dollar values across the board for dollar long marchers.. imo every pip down here are mid term dollar in the fx piggy bank..
moscow mi 09:42..yes
Cheerios..
moscow mi 09:42 GMT April 28, 2006
van Gecko 09:39 GMT - indeed Gecko. May i ask Jay for your email also? Thanks.
Naples DC 09:40 GMT April 28, 2006
van Gecko
thanks, i'll do it
van Gecko 09:39 GMT April 28, 2006
moscow mi 08:26.. the euro/swissy twin crossing here bears no significance on the macro picture.. and you shouldn't follow anyone blindly in this biz.. not even your own mother..
gl..
KL HP 09:11.. don't know where you came from, but the market is full of 'one day chart wonders'.. keep sticking to your TA 101 views if you want to say bye to your funds.. & please try to approach the market with a bit of humility matey..
gl..
Naples DC 07:49.. get my mail addy from jay if interested..
gl.
HK REVDAX 09:22 GMT April 28, 2006
Manila Tom 09:18 //One very important ingredient is missing: the C9s are not shorting any more.
Manila Tom 09:18 GMT April 28, 2006
i think all ingredients for higher euro are here again, let's meet at Qindex's 1.2610
KL HP 09:11 GMT April 28, 2006
van Gecko 07:38 GMT April 28, 2006
please kindly advise under which condition or what levels then will you turn dollar bearish? i am sure you don't want to see money evaporates before it is too late...weekly close above 1.23 was done, 1.25/1.26 euro levels already seen, crossover euro vs swissie just did, what else do you need to raise the white flag? IMVHO, TA 101 lesson i learned was that 'trend is your friend' and 'cut your loss early, let your profit runs'
Melbourne Qindex 09:08 GMT April 28, 2006
EUR/USD : Trading Reference
... 1.2482* - 1.2503 // 1.2525* - 1.2546 - [1.2567]* - 1.289 - 1.2610* // 1.2631 - 1.2653* ...
Speculative buying interest will increase when the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the projected barrier at 1.2567 - 1.2570. The short term targeting level is 1.2610 - 1.2613.
HK REVDAX 08:57 GMT April 28, 2006
hong kong nt //What next after C9 indication? Super-C9 indication???
Melbourne Qindex 08:51 GMT April 28, 2006
USD/JPY : Trading Reference
... 112.28* - 112.66 // 113.03* - 113.41 - [113.79]* - 114.16 - 114.54* // 114.91 - 115.29* ...
The short term downside target is 113.03 - 113.07.
HK REVDAX 08:35 GMT April 28, 2006
moscow mi 08:26 //Euro/$ has just made a clear hourly divergency between yesterday and today, which suggests under normal circumstances Euro/$ is topping out here. Your trader friend is better off drinking some more volka than to be worried about the stop, albeit the latter has to be in place.
HK REVDAX 08:32 GMT April 28, 2006
Helsinki iw 08:17//The C9 indicator produces a buy signal on $/CAD. It can be just a one day rebound.
Helsinki iw 08:17 GMT April 28, 2006
The medium term level and previous high at 1,2590/00 is up next. While the slide in the dollar looks to intensify, at least to me, this level may hold it for a while as we are again somewhat overbought on EUR/USD.
USD/CAD trading very poorly at the moment and very close to the 15-year low of 1,1190/00. A break looks imminent and would target much lower levels.
moscow mi 08:26 GMT April 28, 2006
van Gecko 07:38 GMT - Hello. EURUSD & USDCHF has just crossed. I remeber your call previous time this happened on the opposite side. What changed now? I have a trader on my side following your call and sold eurousd at 1.24xx. Where would you suggest him to cut loss and cancel bearish scenario?
thanks in advance.
Naples DC 07:49 GMT April 28, 2006
van Gecko 07:38
"present inter-market conditions"
Sir, could you explain, please?
TIA
van Gecko 07:38 GMT April 28, 2006
notice an increasing number of dollar bears are starting to call for demise of the dollar with the imminent 'crossover of euro & usd/chf ' here.. what they fail to realize with their linear one dimensional assumption is that the present inter-market conditions are quite different from last May's crossover.. another TA 101 lesson unfolding in real time for the simpletons..
FwIwW..
Thursday April 27, 2006 - 22:06:50 GMT
Tricom Futures and Foreign Exchange -
Once again, watch for the EUR/USD to crossover the USD/CHF, or atleast come close. Previously when these 2 crosses have crossed over, the EUR/USD has continued higher, and the USD/CHF has fallen away. At the moment, the EUR/USD is trading around 1.2535, and USD/CHF at 1.2595. The 1.2560 level could be where they touch and initially back-off, but if they crossover, and close with the EUR/USD above USD/CHF then lookout for further gains next week.
Manila Tom 15:42 GMT April 27, 2006
euro should extend to 1.26 and crossover with usdchf...what a scenario to close the month and end another chapter of usd bulls' hope
Vienna GD 15:22 GMT April 27, 2006
Within the next 6-7 trading days, i expect mediumterm reversals in currencies (audusd, usdcad, eurusd, gbpusd, ...) the metals (gold, silver, copper, ...) most stocks and yields/bonds.
DYOD ... i could be wrong of course!
IF WRONG ... i will stop posting and babbling here!
Cambridge Dean of ff faculty 15:21 GMT April 27, 2006
When Prof PAR joins us, I want all those loser louts (you know who you are, and your names have been posted in the common-room), to form a looooong line, each will have his turn to kiss a certain portion of the professorial anatomy. Those who had their turn yesterday, kindly rejoin the queue at the back. No pushing in line Purk. Still rotflmao.
Singapore JBM 15:15 GMT April 27, 2006
van Gecko
thanks, anytime...gl
van Gecko 15:10 GMT April 27, 2006
hong kong nt 14:56
I had recently posted some of my c9 observations for you in the Help Forum.. please go there if you need any more help..
Singapore JBM 14:54.. i'll let you know when the time come..
gl.
hong kong nt 14:56 GMT April 27, 2006
VAN GECKO -- my 10k EURO short is bleeding, what should I do??
Singapore JBM 14:54 GMT April 27, 2006
gecko, will u switch side now? look at euro and swissie, they are almost hugging each other
KL HP 14:31 GMT April 27, 2006
bye bye usd, usdchf 1.25xx will touch and crossover with euro 1.25xx
van Gecko 06:48 GMT April 27, 2006
hong kong nt..
sorry for not responding to your affections last night as I had to leave your Quacking 'love in' party early.. in light of your recent public declaration here on your mating preference with female elephants, please try to tune down & limit your outbrusts of "I love you" to forum members as GV may be widely read global forum..
thank you for all your recent reference to yours truly.. I am flattered..
have a nice day..
Las Vegas Jon 02:32 GMT April 27, 2006
General observation-
Interesting how excited several EUR/USD bulls have become since the pair closed +24 pips yesterday. Hardly a feat of great achievement for the EUR but the noise and taunting of USD bulls on this forum is pretty loud…
hong kong nt 17:25 GMT April 26, 2006
VAN GECKO -- I start to love you. Give me a hug..
KL HP 16:40 GMT April 26, 2006
gecko, let's bring in your elephants and we can enjoy watching the tricks they can do, the ducks have got their fun time
hong kong nt 16:37 GMT April 26, 2006
van Gecko 16:30 GMT April 26, 2006
I go short Euro with you now. Let's enjoy!!!
KL HP 16:36 GMT April 26, 2006
van Gecko 16:30 GMT April 26, 2006
they say, if you can't beat them, join them :) where are the elephants?
hong kong nt 16:35 GMT April 26, 2006
van Gecko 16:30 GMT April 26, 2006
My systems generate signals favoring your downside call on Euro..Cheerios..
van Gecko 16:30 GMT April 26, 2006
whats this? a Quacking dollar bear love in ?
Tuesday, April 25, 2006
Haifa ac 09:09 GMT April 25, 2006
van Gecko 07:49 GMT April 25//Yup. THis is the famous Edison/Westinghouse conflict (AC-DC choice) . You believe in linear repetition and I believe in alternations. Edison lost.
I hope I win.
van Gecko 08:28 GMT April 25, 2006
hong kong nt 07:57.. surviving in this biz entails exercising prudent caution after a 500 pip move aside from 'enjoy' or cheering with the crowd.. if one must cheer, try doing it before the move, not after when 'foot_in_the_mouth_tist' diseases are running rampant.. but then again, fx needs conventional trading mind-sets to feed the food chain..
hong kong nt 07:57 GMT April 25, 2006
van Gecko
Why not enjoy the dive from 119 to 113 first? Your wallet must be too thick and do not bother to collect more...
Syd 07:56 GMT April 25, 2006
Andy Xie FX Trading
There is a palpable difference between those who have cut their teeth in leveraged markets, and those that pretend, the real players have a visceral understanding of risk. They know the definition of fleeting.
fleeting 1. To move or pass swiftly 2. To fade out; vanish as in fleeting fortune?
The commodities crowd is riding high. Stories abound and rationales continue to flourish about Chinese demand and world crisis; metals and crude prices 'must' be headed higher.
Forgive us, but we can't help thinking 'dot.coms' when we hear that stuff. Granted, there is a difference. Dot.coms were only paper commodities are real. But the problem comes when paper becomes the underlying driver, not real demand.
Speculation is about money. People motivated by greedy expectations use money to move prices. In this game, the trend is your friend until it’s not. But because no one knows when or where the trend ends, there is a motivation to stay in the game despite the apparent and growing risk. As it is a game of money and/or credit, logically one has to think as long as credit remains abundant the trend lives.
Back to Mr. Xie: “The key to the success of self-fulfilling prophesies is herd mentality…Without the proliferation of hedge funds and proprietary trading on Wall Street, self-fulfilling prophecies would be few. In today’s world, potential self-fulfilling prophecies tend to happen, as long as they are good for the profit of the institutions behind such trades.”
van Gecko 07:49 GMT April 25, 2006
Haifa ac 07:29.. take a look at your monthly from jan'00 to jan'02 & jan'05 to now.. seems to recall the bears were also cheering for 100 yen back in aug/sept'01 too.. as you now know, what happen after is history..
Haifa ac 07:29 GMT April 25, 2006
van Gecko 07:09 GMT //I do not see much correlation between the Yen and the DOLLAR here.
If we close the month in this area (114.5 or so)--the odds are high that May will see further strength of the yen.
On the monthly chart below 113.41 there is a real vaccuum. We will also leave behind us 5 months of congestion...this may "bear" quiet a significance.
van Gecko 07:09 GMT April 25, 2006
Sydney 06:30..
with mid-term dollar elephants sighted at 114 yen, 1.26 chf, 1.24 euro, & gold heading for sub 600, the near term scenario could see the dollar holding 114~116 yen while the euro continue its slide to find support down near 140 yen & the dollar printing 1.22~1.21 euro in quick order..
Haifa ac 06:41.. imo the 114.50~113.50 band presents excellent m/t dollar value & money making opportunities for long marchers.. a sustained break below the 113.50's could see your 110's..
good CHeetos for you!
Haifa ac 06:41 GMT April 25, 2006
van Gecko
Haifa ac.. good pipes with Dlr/Yen! Cheerios.. //
I can't make money with cheerios, Not even with CHeetos.
I need S/R levels I told you that the 30 year and the 8 year downtrendlines are still dominating the large scene. You are talking 122 and 135 and I am talking 110 and 100.
So for me the 113.41 is make or break for 110 . The week has only started so it is premature to make grand statements. I am asking you what is your crucial levels. TIA
Sydney 06:30 GMT April 25, 2006
van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 25, 2006
Can you please explain?
van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 25, 2006
Japan & crosses were the main show over the last few sessions while the Europeans were the sidekick beneficiaries.. now that the dollar had given up 3 yen the scenario could get very interesting with elephant butts showing up all over the place..
Haifa ac.. good pipes with Dlr/Yen! Cheerios..
London Crystal Ball 19:15 GMT April 24, 2006
UsdChf was defended at 1.2666 and 1.2650
ECB already lost some sizeable tens of billions of reserves and with all their efforts, some hours ago if you remember that 1.2398 bouncing, they still added on their losses. Historically most of the times they did not succed in fighting with markets.
Syd 08:19 GMT April 24, 2006
Hosokawa: Will Always Act Properly Vs Excessive FX Moves
hk ab 07:19 GMT April 24, 2006
Gecko//any special for today?
Syd 07:11 GMT April 24, 2006
van Gecko 07:07 GMT you bring a smile . (:-))
van Gecko 07:07 GMT April 24, 2006
Syd.. looks like they are up against elephant's butt..:))
Syd 07:02 GMT April 24, 2006
Barclays Bank.. Short-term speculators, probably overseas model funds, pushing EUR/USD up
hk ab 09:24 GMT April 23, 2006
nt//fwiw, those c9's sell at 1.2360 and 1.2380 sponsored me quite a lot over the past few days. And seems your bull friends have betrayed you somehow though after I glimpse through the hrly and daily chart. GL.
van Gecko 07:49 GMT April 25//Yup. THis is the famous Edison/Westinghouse conflict (AC-DC choice) . You believe in linear repetition and I believe in alternations. Edison lost.
I hope I win.
van Gecko 08:28 GMT April 25, 2006
hong kong nt 07:57.. surviving in this biz entails exercising prudent caution after a 500 pip move aside from 'enjoy' or cheering with the crowd.. if one must cheer, try doing it before the move, not after when 'foot_in_the_mouth_tist' diseases are running rampant.. but then again, fx needs conventional trading mind-sets to feed the food chain..
hong kong nt 07:57 GMT April 25, 2006
van Gecko
Why not enjoy the dive from 119 to 113 first? Your wallet must be too thick and do not bother to collect more...
Syd 07:56 GMT April 25, 2006
Andy Xie FX Trading
There is a palpable difference between those who have cut their teeth in leveraged markets, and those that pretend, the real players have a visceral understanding of risk. They know the definition of fleeting.
fleeting 1. To move or pass swiftly 2. To fade out; vanish as in fleeting fortune?
The commodities crowd is riding high. Stories abound and rationales continue to flourish about Chinese demand and world crisis; metals and crude prices 'must' be headed higher.
Forgive us, but we can't help thinking 'dot.coms' when we hear that stuff. Granted, there is a difference. Dot.coms were only paper commodities are real. But the problem comes when paper becomes the underlying driver, not real demand.
Speculation is about money. People motivated by greedy expectations use money to move prices. In this game, the trend is your friend until it’s not. But because no one knows when or where the trend ends, there is a motivation to stay in the game despite the apparent and growing risk. As it is a game of money and/or credit, logically one has to think as long as credit remains abundant the trend lives.
Back to Mr. Xie: “The key to the success of self-fulfilling prophesies is herd mentality…Without the proliferation of hedge funds and proprietary trading on Wall Street, self-fulfilling prophecies would be few. In today’s world, potential self-fulfilling prophecies tend to happen, as long as they are good for the profit of the institutions behind such trades.”
van Gecko 07:49 GMT April 25, 2006
Haifa ac 07:29.. take a look at your monthly from jan'00 to jan'02 & jan'05 to now.. seems to recall the bears were also cheering for 100 yen back in aug/sept'01 too.. as you now know, what happen after is history..
Haifa ac 07:29 GMT April 25, 2006
van Gecko 07:09 GMT //I do not see much correlation between the Yen and the DOLLAR here.
If we close the month in this area (114.5 or so)--the odds are high that May will see further strength of the yen.
On the monthly chart below 113.41 there is a real vaccuum. We will also leave behind us 5 months of congestion...this may "bear" quiet a significance.
van Gecko 07:09 GMT April 25, 2006
Sydney 06:30..
with mid-term dollar elephants sighted at 114 yen, 1.26 chf, 1.24 euro, & gold heading for sub 600, the near term scenario could see the dollar holding 114~116 yen while the euro continue its slide to find support down near 140 yen & the dollar printing 1.22~1.21 euro in quick order..
Haifa ac 06:41.. imo the 114.50~113.50 band presents excellent m/t dollar value & money making opportunities for long marchers.. a sustained break below the 113.50's could see your 110's..
good CHeetos for you!
Haifa ac 06:41 GMT April 25, 2006
van Gecko
Haifa ac.. good pipes with Dlr/Yen! Cheerios.. //
I can't make money with cheerios, Not even with CHeetos.
I need S/R levels I told you that the 30 year and the 8 year downtrendlines are still dominating the large scene. You are talking 122 and 135 and I am talking 110 and 100.
So for me the 113.41 is make or break for 110 . The week has only started so it is premature to make grand statements. I am asking you what is your crucial levels. TIA
Sydney 06:30 GMT April 25, 2006
van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 25, 2006
Can you please explain?
van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 25, 2006
Japan & crosses were the main show over the last few sessions while the Europeans were the sidekick beneficiaries.. now that the dollar had given up 3 yen the scenario could get very interesting with elephant butts showing up all over the place..
Haifa ac.. good pipes with Dlr/Yen! Cheerios..
London Crystal Ball 19:15 GMT April 24, 2006
UsdChf was defended at 1.2666 and 1.2650
ECB already lost some sizeable tens of billions of reserves and with all their efforts, some hours ago if you remember that 1.2398 bouncing, they still added on their losses. Historically most of the times they did not succed in fighting with markets.
Syd 08:19 GMT April 24, 2006
Hosokawa: Will Always Act Properly Vs Excessive FX Moves
hk ab 07:19 GMT April 24, 2006
Gecko//any special for today?
Syd 07:11 GMT April 24, 2006
van Gecko 07:07 GMT you bring a smile . (:-))
van Gecko 07:07 GMT April 24, 2006
Syd.. looks like they are up against elephant's butt..:))
Syd 07:02 GMT April 24, 2006
Barclays Bank.. Short-term speculators, probably overseas model funds, pushing EUR/USD up
hk ab 09:24 GMT April 23, 2006
nt//fwiw, those c9's sell at 1.2360 and 1.2380 sponsored me quite a lot over the past few days. And seems your bull friends have betrayed you somehow though after I glimpse through the hrly and daily chart. GL.
Sunday, April 23, 2006
van Gecko 03:18 GMT April 23, 2006
Subject: C9 indicator
"hong kong nt 15:37 GMT April 21, 2006
van Gecko
Do you like C9 indicator?"
At your persistence, the following is some of my observation;
imo the c9 indicator (c9X) is a subset of my 'Quacking Duck Contrarian' (QDC) indicator..
As with the QDC, c9X usually occurs after the market had made a move to some intermediate or short term high/low levels..
Good risk adjusted short & mid term fading opportunities can be have in addition to its exuberant hindsight cheerleading values..
Heres a few examples of the c9X in action;
"---- ---- -- 15:31 GMT April 19, 2006
Most c9 are buying USD in bucket shops and so do most FX traders in 2nd/3rd division banks."
GBP @1.7910, dropped 150 pips down to 1.7760 over the next 24hr.. a potential 150 pip profit for the c9/bank traders & fading the c9X
"---- ---- -- 15:31 GMT April 20, 2006
-- lucky me, hear some C9 turning long today and calling for 1.81, double slap.."
GBP @1.7760, dropped 150 pips overnight then went up 80 pips to 1.7840 the next day, c9 $bulls took profit & turn $bears overnight..? very nimble c9 indeed! a potential 230 pip profit for the c9
"---- ---- -- 12:31 GMT March 20, 2006
Most c9 are buying USD for sometime and having larger losses.."
Euro @1.2196, dropped to 1.1954 over the next 3 days.. a 240 pip c9X contrarian play
"---- ---- -- 14:27 GMT February 15, 2006
-- magic of c9 ! "
GBP high @1.7488, dropped to a low of 1.7306 overnight.. a potential 180 pip profit fading the c9X
Heres a real dandy :)
"---- ---- -- 02:54 GMT April 26, 2004
-- c9 picking bottom in progress..."
Euro @ 1.1760 after a sliding for 2 month from 1.2927.. from this 1.1760 April bottom, it never look back & started an 8 month 1900 pip climb up to the all time high of 1.3665, a classic mid-term c9X play !
need I say more?
van Gecko 03:18 GMT April 23, 2006
"hong kong nt 16:05 GMT April 20, 2006
van Gecko
I don't mind to be either a bull or a bear. I just don't like to be a losing bull or a losing bear. Very nice if you may share with us some trades with entry/exit levels..
van Gecko 16:31 GMT April 20, 2006
hong kong nt 16:05.. contrary to the preception of newbies or wannabies, "one size does not fit all" in this biz.. winning or losing in this game is not about entry/exit levels.. its how you play the game that will determine your chance for survival & take some real money from the market over time..
gl.
hong kong nt 07:11 GMT April 22, 2006
Ideally, with a very thick wallet, 500-800 pips adverse movement may look like only a storm in a teapot, and in this case, i agree with you entry/exit levels maybe not too important. However, for most traders, there trading horizon is limited to 1-2 weeks or within few hundred pips firing range. In this case, it is joking if one claims entry/exit levels are not important..
"
morning nt.. I am afraid you have lost sight of your 16:05 GMT April 20, 2006 question to me.. playing a 500-800 pips movement requires other risk adjusted tactics besides entry/exit levels..
have a nice day..
btw, at your persistance, i'll post my c9 observations in the Help Forum..
Subject: C9 indicator
"hong kong nt 15:37 GMT April 21, 2006
van Gecko
Do you like C9 indicator?"
At your persistence, the following is some of my observation;
imo the c9 indicator (c9X) is a subset of my 'Quacking Duck Contrarian' (QDC) indicator..
As with the QDC, c9X usually occurs after the market had made a move to some intermediate or short term high/low levels..
Good risk adjusted short & mid term fading opportunities can be have in addition to its exuberant hindsight cheerleading values..
Heres a few examples of the c9X in action;
"---- ---- -- 15:31 GMT April 19, 2006
Most c9 are buying USD in bucket shops and so do most FX traders in 2nd/3rd division banks."
GBP @1.7910, dropped 150 pips down to 1.7760 over the next 24hr.. a potential 150 pip profit for the c9/bank traders & fading the c9X
"---- ---- -- 15:31 GMT April 20, 2006
-- lucky me, hear some C9 turning long today and calling for 1.81, double slap.."
GBP @1.7760, dropped 150 pips overnight then went up 80 pips to 1.7840 the next day, c9 $bulls took profit & turn $bears overnight..? very nimble c9 indeed! a potential 230 pip profit for the c9
"---- ---- -- 12:31 GMT March 20, 2006
Most c9 are buying USD for sometime and having larger losses.."
Euro @1.2196, dropped to 1.1954 over the next 3 days.. a 240 pip c9X contrarian play
"---- ---- -- 14:27 GMT February 15, 2006
-- magic of c9 ! "
GBP high @1.7488, dropped to a low of 1.7306 overnight.. a potential 180 pip profit fading the c9X
Heres a real dandy :)
"---- ---- -- 02:54 GMT April 26, 2004
-- c9 picking bottom in progress..."
Euro @ 1.1760 after a sliding for 2 month from 1.2927.. from this 1.1760 April bottom, it never look back & started an 8 month 1900 pip climb up to the all time high of 1.3665, a classic mid-term c9X play !
need I say more?
van Gecko 03:18 GMT April 23, 2006
"hong kong nt 16:05 GMT April 20, 2006
van Gecko
I don't mind to be either a bull or a bear. I just don't like to be a losing bull or a losing bear. Very nice if you may share with us some trades with entry/exit levels..
van Gecko 16:31 GMT April 20, 2006
hong kong nt 16:05.. contrary to the preception of newbies or wannabies, "one size does not fit all" in this biz.. winning or losing in this game is not about entry/exit levels.. its how you play the game that will determine your chance for survival & take some real money from the market over time..
gl.
hong kong nt 07:11 GMT April 22, 2006
Ideally, with a very thick wallet, 500-800 pips adverse movement may look like only a storm in a teapot, and in this case, i agree with you entry/exit levels maybe not too important. However, for most traders, there trading horizon is limited to 1-2 weeks or within few hundred pips firing range. In this case, it is joking if one claims entry/exit levels are not important..
"
morning nt.. I am afraid you have lost sight of your 16:05 GMT April 20, 2006 question to me.. playing a 500-800 pips movement requires other risk adjusted tactics besides entry/exit levels..
have a nice day..
btw, at your persistance, i'll post my c9 observations in the Help Forum..
Friday, April 21, 2006
van Gecko 09:32 GMT April 21, 2006
London Crystal Ball 09:01.. yep, opposing camps structuring an 'ideal preception' for the herds is a big part of this sordid biz..
London Crystal Ball 09:01 GMT April 21, 2006
Big Modelers trying to defend closing below 1.2290/85 for today. This is all about.
Off now Have a nice w/e
London Crystal Ball 08:50 GMT April 21, 2006
van Gecko 08:48 GMT April 21, 2006
Soonel ol latel the academics must be right, but in between a disastel
van Gecko 08:48 GMT April 21, 2006
jkt-aye 07:31 & revdax.. euro & cousins had already done the '1 step back foxstrot' in fine form (reversed 1+ figure).. that plus gold beginning a multi-week meltdown correction, theres vely good odd for the headmaster from Oxford to be right again..
Cheerios..
London Crystal Ball 08:42 GMT April 21, 2006
The market might dance around 1.2320 yet for some as money centers have yet to digest the move. Might be big brokering want to set the market into a buy/long mode looking like for some hours and then catch back the stops below 1.2270 again by mid/late US. But 3.6 billions $ is a small amount all in all, however executed in thin market conditions so some specialists and brokers are looking yet to cover the prices paid on lower for part of the above mentioned trade.
London Crystal Ball 08:26 GMT April 21, 2006
Riksbank reallocation of 3.6 bios Usds reserves has been just traded. The deal is already set one skandi trader says. Just the classic CBs smog.
Riksbank executed the reassesment not so economically exactly in a thin market condition just when the italian worsened trade data has been released. No ECB hikes before fall given fundamentals. Day trading then is another story.
HK REVDAX 08:27 GMT April 21, 2006
hong kong nt 08:22 //My mechanical device will enter into a buy next Monday after finding out where to place the stop. i was out at 12885, not as precise as yours, of course.
hong kong nt 08:22 GMT April 21, 2006
REVDAX -- remember our 1% correction is a buy in coffee shop this week? 1.239 --> 1.226 is 1% correction..
hong kong nt 07:52 GMT April 21, 2006
REVDAX -- better not to guess which way EURO goes, let the market tell you what to do, i will shift to neutral bias if 1.226 fails to hold..
jkt-aye 07:31 GMT April 21, 2006
Revdax 06:59
1.2225 in my calc, as breach of 1.2216 will open gate for 1.2158.
HK REVDAX 06:59 GMT April 21, 2006
Can anyone venture to guess what the low of Euro is going to be today? TIA
shanghai bc 02:30 GMT April 21, 2006
Nobody knows what should be the true value of any currency at a given time..That is the truth forex traders have to face and that means,only slight advantage anyone has in trading is when he follows a trend identifiable to a person with reasonably good eye-sight..Tragic-comody situation for all forex traders..But few realize the fun of it..
shanghai bc 02:08 GMT April 21, 2006
Only some of those US politicians who know nothing about economy and forex believe Rmb revaluation against Dollar is a solution to their trade issue..One of the wonders of "nationwide-one size-fit-all-democracy" where an illiterate and a rocket scientist have the same vote to choose who is more popular person to their taste..
London Crystal Ball 09:01.. yep, opposing camps structuring an 'ideal preception' for the herds is a big part of this sordid biz..
London Crystal Ball 09:01 GMT April 21, 2006
Big Modelers trying to defend closing below 1.2290/85 for today. This is all about.
Off now Have a nice w/e
London Crystal Ball 08:50 GMT April 21, 2006
van Gecko 08:48 GMT April 21, 2006
Soonel ol latel the academics must be right, but in between a disastel
van Gecko 08:48 GMT April 21, 2006
jkt-aye 07:31 & revdax.. euro & cousins had already done the '1 step back foxstrot' in fine form (reversed 1+ figure).. that plus gold beginning a multi-week meltdown correction, theres vely good odd for the headmaster from Oxford to be right again..
Cheerios..
London Crystal Ball 08:42 GMT April 21, 2006
The market might dance around 1.2320 yet for some as money centers have yet to digest the move. Might be big brokering want to set the market into a buy/long mode looking like for some hours and then catch back the stops below 1.2270 again by mid/late US. But 3.6 billions $ is a small amount all in all, however executed in thin market conditions so some specialists and brokers are looking yet to cover the prices paid on lower for part of the above mentioned trade.
London Crystal Ball 08:26 GMT April 21, 2006
Riksbank reallocation of 3.6 bios Usds reserves has been just traded. The deal is already set one skandi trader says. Just the classic CBs smog.
Riksbank executed the reassesment not so economically exactly in a thin market condition just when the italian worsened trade data has been released. No ECB hikes before fall given fundamentals. Day trading then is another story.
HK REVDAX 08:27 GMT April 21, 2006
hong kong nt 08:22 //My mechanical device will enter into a buy next Monday after finding out where to place the stop. i was out at 12885, not as precise as yours, of course.
hong kong nt 08:22 GMT April 21, 2006
REVDAX -- remember our 1% correction is a buy in coffee shop this week? 1.239 --> 1.226 is 1% correction..
hong kong nt 07:52 GMT April 21, 2006
REVDAX -- better not to guess which way EURO goes, let the market tell you what to do, i will shift to neutral bias if 1.226 fails to hold..
jkt-aye 07:31 GMT April 21, 2006
Revdax 06:59
1.2225 in my calc, as breach of 1.2216 will open gate for 1.2158.
HK REVDAX 06:59 GMT April 21, 2006
Can anyone venture to guess what the low of Euro is going to be today? TIA
shanghai bc 02:30 GMT April 21, 2006
Nobody knows what should be the true value of any currency at a given time..That is the truth forex traders have to face and that means,only slight advantage anyone has in trading is when he follows a trend identifiable to a person with reasonably good eye-sight..Tragic-comody situation for all forex traders..But few realize the fun of it..
shanghai bc 02:08 GMT April 21, 2006
Only some of those US politicians who know nothing about economy and forex believe Rmb revaluation against Dollar is a solution to their trade issue..One of the wonders of "nationwide-one size-fit-all-democracy" where an illiterate and a rocket scientist have the same vote to choose who is more popular person to their taste..
Thursday, April 20, 2006
van Gecko 16:31 GMT April 20, 2006
hong kong nt 16:05.. contrary to the preception of newbies or wannabies, "one size does not fit all" in this biz.. winning or losing in this game is not about entry/exit levels.. its how you play the game that will determine your chance for survival & take some real money from the market over time..
gl.
hong kong nt 16:05 GMT April 20, 2006
van Gecko 15:29 GMT April 20, 2006
I don't mind to be either a bull or a bear. I just don't like to be a losing bull or a losing bear. Very nice if you may share with us some trades with entry/exit levels..
HK Kevin 15:46 GMT April 20, 2006
van Gecko 15:29 GMT, agree with your view on EUR/CHF. Ist sign of EUR warning if EUR/CHF close today above 1.5750
van Gecko 15:29 GMT April 20, 2006
the market dynamics had changed.. being a Son Of Beatrice $bear today may risk h'i$$ing pips into the wind with 'tight stops'.. or risk of ruin if you have no stops..
hong kong nt 15:31 GMT April 20, 2006
REVDAX -- lucky me, hear some C9 turning long today and calling for 1.81, double slap..
GBP -- exit some more around 1.790 line..
hong kong nt 15:22 GMT April 20, 2006
GOLD -- forget to post heavy C9 cutloss this morning in Asia and talk about possibility of 700..
sa 14:03 GMT April 20, 2006
gold heading down with a stone attached to its bottom.
van Gecko 13:12 GMT April 20, 2006
London 12:55.. my 'Crystal Ball' is saying Eur/Chf's near term correction is done and now heading back up to the 1.58/60 high grounds..:))
London Crystal Ball 12:55 GMT April 20, 2006
It looks EurUsd well defended around 1.2310/00, but some divergence noted. EurChf waiting 1.5712 as first support to be met later on. If not a prolonged slide to develop, but at a small risk. Slow beginning today.
van Gecko 11:30 GMT April 20, 2006
Watch those Dollar paper profits before they are h'i$$ed into the wind..
Cheerios..
Oxford Headmaster 11:23 GMT April 20, 2006
we were not wrong, just having some floating negative number.
Sydney ACC 10:46 GMT April 20, 2006
The quote by Mark Twain may also be attributed to the USD:
"The rumours of my death have been greatly exagerated"
Amman/Riyadh H. A. 10:43 GMT April 20, 2006
any clue why this sudden nose down for the euro & cable?
van Gecko 07:18 GMT April 20, 2006
QDN index at prime time again!
across the board concensus for Lower Dollar..
Wednesday April 19, 2006 FOREX Headlines:
-Dollar hits 7-month low vs euro on rate pause view
-Market So Bearish Dollars that Even Higher CPI Numbers Fail to Halt Its Slide
-IMF WEO Calls For Lower Dollar, Should We Care?
hong kong nt 16:05.. contrary to the preception of newbies or wannabies, "one size does not fit all" in this biz.. winning or losing in this game is not about entry/exit levels.. its how you play the game that will determine your chance for survival & take some real money from the market over time..
gl.
hong kong nt 16:05 GMT April 20, 2006
van Gecko 15:29 GMT April 20, 2006
I don't mind to be either a bull or a bear. I just don't like to be a losing bull or a losing bear. Very nice if you may share with us some trades with entry/exit levels..
HK Kevin 15:46 GMT April 20, 2006
van Gecko 15:29 GMT, agree with your view on EUR/CHF. Ist sign of EUR warning if EUR/CHF close today above 1.5750
van Gecko 15:29 GMT April 20, 2006
the market dynamics had changed.. being a Son Of Beatrice $bear today may risk h'i$$ing pips into the wind with 'tight stops'.. or risk of ruin if you have no stops..
hong kong nt 15:31 GMT April 20, 2006
REVDAX -- lucky me, hear some C9 turning long today and calling for 1.81, double slap..
GBP -- exit some more around 1.790 line..
hong kong nt 15:22 GMT April 20, 2006
GOLD -- forget to post heavy C9 cutloss this morning in Asia and talk about possibility of 700..
sa 14:03 GMT April 20, 2006
gold heading down with a stone attached to its bottom.
van Gecko 13:12 GMT April 20, 2006
London 12:55.. my 'Crystal Ball' is saying Eur/Chf's near term correction is done and now heading back up to the 1.58/60 high grounds..:))
London Crystal Ball 12:55 GMT April 20, 2006
It looks EurUsd well defended around 1.2310/00, but some divergence noted. EurChf waiting 1.5712 as first support to be met later on. If not a prolonged slide to develop, but at a small risk. Slow beginning today.
van Gecko 11:30 GMT April 20, 2006
Watch those Dollar paper profits before they are h'i$$ed into the wind..
Cheerios..
Oxford Headmaster 11:23 GMT April 20, 2006
we were not wrong, just having some floating negative number.
Sydney ACC 10:46 GMT April 20, 2006
The quote by Mark Twain may also be attributed to the USD:
"The rumours of my death have been greatly exagerated"
Amman/Riyadh H. A. 10:43 GMT April 20, 2006
any clue why this sudden nose down for the euro & cable?
van Gecko 07:18 GMT April 20, 2006
QDN index at prime time again!
across the board concensus for Lower Dollar..
Wednesday April 19, 2006 FOREX Headlines:
-Dollar hits 7-month low vs euro on rate pause view
-Market So Bearish Dollars that Even Higher CPI Numbers Fail to Halt Its Slide
-IMF WEO Calls For Lower Dollar, Should We Care?
Wednesday, April 19, 2006
van Gecko 14:48 GMT April 19, 2006
Vienna GD 14:21.. there seems to be lots of supporting noise & concensus for EUR 1.25/26 & even 1.31 within the dollar bear community.. so DYOB & take your pick..:)
Vienna GD 14:21 GMT April 19, 2006
van Gecko 14:14 ... which pair offers the best r/r ratio here?
Eurusd, chfjpy? Timeframe mt? (iran resolution apr 28?)
van Gecko 14:14 GMT April 19, 2006
GBP & the Conti cousins getting temporary support from Gbp/Jpy & Eur/Jpy & gold hanging around the 620's.. more opportunities for the 'brave Sons Of Beatrice'..
LDN Tim 13:55 GMT April 19, 2006
Guys anyone know why there is so much strength in the GBP and EUR and USD is so weak even on good data?
van Gecko 13:48 GMT April 19, 2006
"12:30 GMT April 12, 2006
Eur/Gbp exhibiting classic false upside triangle break symptoms.. similiar false move to the downside in 2002 caught many Euro bears flat footed & kick started the climb up to 1.36.."
the move will accelerate once her Majesty succumb to gravity..
jkt-aye.. cheers..
jkt-aye 13:35 GMT April 19, 2006
van Gecko ... thanks for your invaluable insight recently.
van Gecko 13:28 GMT April 19, 2006
38 more pips till intermission @1.2250..
London Gooner 13:27 GMT April 19, 2006
Added to EUR Long @ 1.2294
Las Vegas Jon 13:24 GMT April 19, 2006
EUR/USD
Covered some @ 1.2287
van Gecko 12:56 GMT April 19, 2006
Moscow Anatoly.. sit tight.. more 'BOBs' stops below the figure (Bail On Blips)
euro @1.23
Moscow Anatoly 11:25 GMT April 19, 2006
van Gecko
Do You have any shorts in eur??
van Gecko 11:19 GMT April 19, 2006
1st stop en route back to 1.21 & lower is 1.2250..
Cheerios..
euro @ 1.2350
hong kong nt 09:31 GMT April 19, 2006
Oxford Headmaster 08:55 GMT April 19, 2006
Cambridge Headmaster is buying Euro. He may think "I am close to being right but not right yet."..
Just add some fun in present narrow range...
hk revdax 09:04 GMT April 19, 2006
Mumbai NS 09:00//according to this duck theory, is us$ a buy or sell? tia
van Gecko 08:56 GMT April 19, 2006
Mumbai NS.. FYI heres the condensed version..
"QDC".. Quacking Duck Contrarian theory:
market participants tends to make the most noises at/near market EXTREMES..
like all traditional chart indicators, the Ducks tends to lag behind the market & are behind the curve cheerleaders at/near market EXTREMES..
guage the 'Quacking Duck Noises' QDN level & fade the noisy Ducks..
you can read the full version by doing an archive search for "Quacking Duck Contrarian theory"..
have a nice day..
:))
Oxford Headmaster 08:55 GMT April 19, 2006
it's a border case, we are close to being wrong but not wrong yet.
Mumbai NS 08:45 GMT April 19, 2006
Van Gecko
Are u an avid follower of that school of lizards.
van Gecko 08:43 GMT April 19, 2006
Mumbai NS..
are you aware of the "QDC".. Quacking Duck Contrarian theory?
Mumbai NS 08:33 GMT April 19, 2006
Van Gecko looks like u need an Armstrong to climb ur projected swiss alps gud day n gud luck
van Gecko 08:28 GMT April 19, 2006
Syd.. for the last 8 months euro had danced to the tune of '2 steps forward 2 steps back' foxstrot steps as it had always reversed 2+ figures after rising or falling 2+ figures with a figure worth of whipsaw pips sandwiched in between..
a wonderful DNT playground or mid-term 'PorkChopTitist' liquidity exemplified.. FwIww..
Syd 08:17 GMT April 19, 2006
DJ..Several banks and funds have been noted selling EUR/USD and cable over the past 12 hours, says a trader. He considers them to be smart sellers, those that have a knack of picking levels to short currencies for a longer-term play. EUR/USD traded to 1.2370 earlier in day, highest since September 2005, while cable printed a 2-month high of 1.7840. EUR/USD now trades at 1.2352, cable at 1.7828.
Vienna GD 14:21.. there seems to be lots of supporting noise & concensus for EUR 1.25/26 & even 1.31 within the dollar bear community.. so DYOB & take your pick..:)
Vienna GD 14:21 GMT April 19, 2006
van Gecko 14:14 ... which pair offers the best r/r ratio here?
Eurusd, chfjpy? Timeframe mt? (iran resolution apr 28?)
van Gecko 14:14 GMT April 19, 2006
GBP & the Conti cousins getting temporary support from Gbp/Jpy & Eur/Jpy & gold hanging around the 620's.. more opportunities for the 'brave Sons Of Beatrice'..
LDN Tim 13:55 GMT April 19, 2006
Guys anyone know why there is so much strength in the GBP and EUR and USD is so weak even on good data?
van Gecko 13:48 GMT April 19, 2006
"12:30 GMT April 12, 2006
Eur/Gbp exhibiting classic false upside triangle break symptoms.. similiar false move to the downside in 2002 caught many Euro bears flat footed & kick started the climb up to 1.36.."
the move will accelerate once her Majesty succumb to gravity..
jkt-aye.. cheers..
jkt-aye 13:35 GMT April 19, 2006
van Gecko ... thanks for your invaluable insight recently.
van Gecko 13:28 GMT April 19, 2006
38 more pips till intermission @1.2250..
London Gooner 13:27 GMT April 19, 2006
Added to EUR Long @ 1.2294
Las Vegas Jon 13:24 GMT April 19, 2006
EUR/USD
Covered some @ 1.2287
van Gecko 12:56 GMT April 19, 2006
Moscow Anatoly.. sit tight.. more 'BOBs' stops below the figure (Bail On Blips)
euro @1.23
Moscow Anatoly 11:25 GMT April 19, 2006
van Gecko
Do You have any shorts in eur??
van Gecko 11:19 GMT April 19, 2006
1st stop en route back to 1.21 & lower is 1.2250..
Cheerios..
euro @ 1.2350
hong kong nt 09:31 GMT April 19, 2006
Oxford Headmaster 08:55 GMT April 19, 2006
Cambridge Headmaster is buying Euro. He may think "I am close to being right but not right yet."..
Just add some fun in present narrow range...
hk revdax 09:04 GMT April 19, 2006
Mumbai NS 09:00//according to this duck theory, is us$ a buy or sell? tia
van Gecko 08:56 GMT April 19, 2006
Mumbai NS.. FYI heres the condensed version..
"QDC".. Quacking Duck Contrarian theory:
market participants tends to make the most noises at/near market EXTREMES..
like all traditional chart indicators, the Ducks tends to lag behind the market & are behind the curve cheerleaders at/near market EXTREMES..
guage the 'Quacking Duck Noises' QDN level & fade the noisy Ducks..
you can read the full version by doing an archive search for "Quacking Duck Contrarian theory"..
have a nice day..
:))
Oxford Headmaster 08:55 GMT April 19, 2006
it's a border case, we are close to being wrong but not wrong yet.
Mumbai NS 08:45 GMT April 19, 2006
Van Gecko
Are u an avid follower of that school of lizards.
van Gecko 08:43 GMT April 19, 2006
Mumbai NS..
are you aware of the "QDC".. Quacking Duck Contrarian theory?
Mumbai NS 08:33 GMT April 19, 2006
Van Gecko looks like u need an Armstrong to climb ur projected swiss alps gud day n gud luck
van Gecko 08:28 GMT April 19, 2006
Syd.. for the last 8 months euro had danced to the tune of '2 steps forward 2 steps back' foxstrot steps as it had always reversed 2+ figures after rising or falling 2+ figures with a figure worth of whipsaw pips sandwiched in between..
a wonderful DNT playground or mid-term 'PorkChopTitist' liquidity exemplified.. FwIww..
Syd 08:17 GMT April 19, 2006
DJ..Several banks and funds have been noted selling EUR/USD and cable over the past 12 hours, says a trader. He considers them to be smart sellers, those that have a knack of picking levels to short currencies for a longer-term play. EUR/USD traded to 1.2370 earlier in day, highest since September 2005, while cable printed a 2-month high of 1.7840. EUR/USD now trades at 1.2352, cable at 1.7828.
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
van Gecko 15:30 GMT April 18, 2006
nt.. its nice to see all those headmasters coming out of the closet to butt heads & play head games with our heads.. :))
bonjour..
hong kong nt 15:12 GMT April 18, 2006
van Gecko 15:04 GMT April 18, 2006
FYI -- Cambridge and Harvard headmasters are buying EURO...LOL
van Gecko 15:04 GMT April 18, 2006
hong kong nt 13:53.. the market will always try to instill humility into our mortal souls.. how we react to it may be the key to 'Pandora's FX box'.. btw, what do you make of our Oxford headmaster's view for EUR's near term fate?
hong kong nt 13:53 GMT April 18, 2006
VAN GECKO -- Let us enjoy dollar's downside bias until it is proven otherwise. We all die in long term..
Oxford Headmaster 12:25 GMT April 18, 2006
bye EUR
the best teacher in our school says below 1.2090 this week and below 1.18 this month
van Gecko 08:33 GMT April 18, 2006
Haifa ac.. imo 122 is in the card.. for now, the market wants to take out 118.28 on way back to 118.68/78.. cheers..
Haifa ac 08:18 GMT April 18, 2006
van Gecko//If we take out 122--I am with you!
van Gecko 08:09 GMT April 18, 2006
ac 07:30.. morning.. 24 year 'trendlines' are questionable in my book.. the dynamics of the market had changed & many generations of traders had evolved during the said time span.. imo the foot prints of elephants are heading for the 126, then the 133's over the mid to long term.. 2000/2001 deja vu ?
Syd 07:55 GMT April 18, 2006
van Gecko 07:10 GMT hello, I feel if we had not seen the housing market revival just lately it would be heading down their right now (pity), the market heat seems to have turned its attention back to USD for the time being , I'll have to bide my time , many thanks for info GT
Haifa ac 07:30 GMT April 18, 2006
van Gecko 07:10 GMT April 18, ...'the longevity secrets of the Okinawan sans.. hoarding Usd/Jpy on substantial dips ?
Cheerios.."//
Are you aware of the 24 year trend line (connectint the high of NOv 82 with the high of Feb 85) which is just above 121.90 and may cause the market to dip into , at least, the 100 area?!
If you add to this the 8 years line (connecting the high of Aug 88 with the high of Feb 2002) which is cutting right now at 11938...You get FORMMIDABLE RESISTANCE here...Very Crucial point.
van Gecko 07:10 GMT April 18, 2006
GBP/USD's falling 50 week ma & L/T trendline had capped all mid-term bounces since it took out the 1.85 & 50 week ma supports last May.. along with its cousins Euro/Swissy, the sustainability of yesterday's knee jerk spike reaction to gold poking above 600 may be questionable with the yellow metal now due for a 30+ buck correction even if its on the way up to the heavens..
Syd 05:25.. the average yearly range for Cable in recent years is around 2000 pips.. if the January high prevails with short term weeklies sustained below 1.7250 theres good odd for your 1.60 this year..
the longevity secrets of the Okinawan sans.. hoarding Usd/Jpy on substantial dips ?
Cheerios..
Syd 05:25 GMT April 18, 2006
Sydney ACC 05:11 I dont touch Cable only will buy if I see it around 1.60 again, probably wont be seeing that for long time anyway.
Sydney ACC 05:11 GMT April 18, 2006
Syd 04:48 European centres are due to start shortly. Frankfurt and London were both absent yesterday. Maybe this will be a factor in the dealers' minds once they get cracking.
Hope so. I took a bath yesterday on cable.
nt.. its nice to see all those headmasters coming out of the closet to butt heads & play head games with our heads.. :))
bonjour..
hong kong nt 15:12 GMT April 18, 2006
van Gecko 15:04 GMT April 18, 2006
FYI -- Cambridge and Harvard headmasters are buying EURO...LOL
van Gecko 15:04 GMT April 18, 2006
hong kong nt 13:53.. the market will always try to instill humility into our mortal souls.. how we react to it may be the key to 'Pandora's FX box'.. btw, what do you make of our Oxford headmaster's view for EUR's near term fate?
hong kong nt 13:53 GMT April 18, 2006
VAN GECKO -- Let us enjoy dollar's downside bias until it is proven otherwise. We all die in long term..
Oxford Headmaster 12:25 GMT April 18, 2006
bye EUR
the best teacher in our school says below 1.2090 this week and below 1.18 this month
van Gecko 08:33 GMT April 18, 2006
Haifa ac.. imo 122 is in the card.. for now, the market wants to take out 118.28 on way back to 118.68/78.. cheers..
Haifa ac 08:18 GMT April 18, 2006
van Gecko//If we take out 122--I am with you!
van Gecko 08:09 GMT April 18, 2006
ac 07:30.. morning.. 24 year 'trendlines' are questionable in my book.. the dynamics of the market had changed & many generations of traders had evolved during the said time span.. imo the foot prints of elephants are heading for the 126, then the 133's over the mid to long term.. 2000/2001 deja vu ?
Syd 07:55 GMT April 18, 2006
van Gecko 07:10 GMT hello, I feel if we had not seen the housing market revival just lately it would be heading down their right now (pity), the market heat seems to have turned its attention back to USD for the time being , I'll have to bide my time , many thanks for info GT
Haifa ac 07:30 GMT April 18, 2006
van Gecko 07:10 GMT April 18, ...'the longevity secrets of the Okinawan sans.. hoarding Usd/Jpy on substantial dips ?
Cheerios.."//
Are you aware of the 24 year trend line (connectint the high of NOv 82 with the high of Feb 85) which is just above 121.90 and may cause the market to dip into , at least, the 100 area?!
If you add to this the 8 years line (connecting the high of Aug 88 with the high of Feb 2002) which is cutting right now at 11938...You get FORMMIDABLE RESISTANCE here...Very Crucial point.
van Gecko 07:10 GMT April 18, 2006
GBP/USD's falling 50 week ma & L/T trendline had capped all mid-term bounces since it took out the 1.85 & 50 week ma supports last May.. along with its cousins Euro/Swissy, the sustainability of yesterday's knee jerk spike reaction to gold poking above 600 may be questionable with the yellow metal now due for a 30+ buck correction even if its on the way up to the heavens..
Syd 05:25.. the average yearly range for Cable in recent years is around 2000 pips.. if the January high prevails with short term weeklies sustained below 1.7250 theres good odd for your 1.60 this year..
the longevity secrets of the Okinawan sans.. hoarding Usd/Jpy on substantial dips ?
Cheerios..
Syd 05:25 GMT April 18, 2006
Sydney ACC 05:11 I dont touch Cable only will buy if I see it around 1.60 again, probably wont be seeing that for long time anyway.
Sydney ACC 05:11 GMT April 18, 2006
Syd 04:48 European centres are due to start shortly. Frankfurt and London were both absent yesterday. Maybe this will be a factor in the dealers' minds once they get cracking.
Hope so. I took a bath yesterday on cable.
Wednesday, April 12, 2006
van Gecko 12:30 GMT April 12, 2006
Eur/Gbp exhibiting classic false upside triangle break symptoms.. similiar false move to the downside in 2002 caught many Euro bears flat footed & kick started the climb up to 1.36..
Cheerios..
syd 23:55 GMT April 11, 2006
USD/SWISS FRANC – Complex Consolidation Almost Complete
by Max McKegg APRIL 11th - USD/SWISS Franc will probably now correct back toward the 1.2950 - 1.2900 area to present a Buying opportunity, for an advance beyond Key 1.3235 Resistance to herald a trend advance toward the 1.4000 level over coming weeks (refer Daily Chart below). As usual, my Daily FX Service will be seeking to capitalise upon the many worthwhile Daily Trading opportunities which lie ahead.
"van Gecko 10:08 GMT March 24, 2006
Usd/Chf.. lotsa 'BS' going on recently as long marching $/Swissy National Soldiers (Buy & Snoozers) setting sights for the 1.38/1.42 Alps in Q2..
vely good odds for the little Dollar to level-shift up to the next 1000 pip Quarterly zone here with back to back Quarterly tests of the 1.33 line.."
Eur/Gbp exhibiting classic false upside triangle break symptoms.. similiar false move to the downside in 2002 caught many Euro bears flat footed & kick started the climb up to 1.36..
Cheerios..
syd 23:55 GMT April 11, 2006
USD/SWISS FRANC – Complex Consolidation Almost Complete
by Max McKegg APRIL 11th - USD/SWISS Franc will probably now correct back toward the 1.2950 - 1.2900 area to present a Buying opportunity, for an advance beyond Key 1.3235 Resistance to herald a trend advance toward the 1.4000 level over coming weeks (refer Daily Chart below). As usual, my Daily FX Service will be seeking to capitalise upon the many worthwhile Daily Trading opportunities which lie ahead.
"van Gecko 10:08 GMT March 24, 2006
Usd/Chf.. lotsa 'BS' going on recently as long marching $/Swissy National Soldiers (Buy & Snoozers) setting sights for the 1.38/1.42 Alps in Q2..
vely good odds for the little Dollar to level-shift up to the next 1000 pip Quarterly zone here with back to back Quarterly tests of the 1.33 line.."
Friday, April 07, 2006
van Gecko 16:20 GMT April 7, 2006
"07:39 GMT April 7, 2006
Below 1.2120 is another weekly Gravestone.. 2 weekly Gravestones at the beginning of consecutive Quarters is a vely rare m/t trend continuation formation.."
Euro placing another Gravestone.. hello 1.18..
Revdax hold on to your TRD shorts..
syd 13:16 GMT April 7, 2006
van Gecko 13:13 GMT bit of a delayed reaction on the Dollar but got to say, your definitely consistant.. GT.
van Gecko 13:13 GMT April 7, 2006
the show is just getting underway.. once the level 1 stops are flushed out below 50 bulls can pickup more cheap euros another figure lower.. fwiwW
euro @1.2190
NY MMM 13:10 GMT April 7, 2006
this move doesnt look like NFP..
van Gecko 11:08 GMT April 7, 2006
EU theEUROqueen 09:04 good day..
may be when eur/usd & usd/chf re-converge with follow through divergence from each other at/near 1.25 again as per my 08:19 GMT January 14, 2005..
gl.
EU theEUROqueen 09:04 GMT April 7, 2006
van Gecko 07:39 GMT April 7, 2006 ..
happy day!
from which level u will change ur mind and become an euro buyers..
Happy trade..
Miami OMIL (/:-> 07:43 GMT April 7, 2006
Anytime van Gecko have a great weekend.
van Gecko 07:39 GMT April 7, 2006
Below 1.2120 is another weekly Gravestone.. 2 weekly Gravestones at the beginning of consecutive Quarters is a vely rare m/t trend continuation formation..
how about Euro printing 1.2028 & 142.28 vs the Dollar & Japan to start the 2nd Quarter ?
hello OMIL (/:-> thank you for your views..
gl
Miami OMIL (/:-> 07:25 GMT April 7, 2006
Hello van Gecko hope you are doing well. Long term view for the eur/usd pair has a bullish triangle I have talked about before with top at 2550-60 and bottom at 1770-60 for now. As long as the market is trading within this triangle we are in a range for the long term view. Long term key resistance is at around the 2100-10 area and key support around the 1970-80 for now. This pair must break the 2440-50 area for now to show a true bullish intention. In the meantime we are in a range for the long term view until these key figures are broken IMHO. Peace and GT
hk ab 07:17 GMT April 7, 2006
eur melting.
Amman/Riyadh H. A. 06:42 GMT April 7, 2006
I may not expect that but it warms my heart to read what you wrote... I just wish!
van Gecko 06:38 GMT April 7, 2006
Dollar camps in snooze.. the next battle zone is 1.2100-1.2050..
below is a repeat of the January Slide of "Good-bye 1.23 Hello 1.18" again..
Cherrios..
"07:39 GMT April 7, 2006
Below 1.2120 is another weekly Gravestone.. 2 weekly Gravestones at the beginning of consecutive Quarters is a vely rare m/t trend continuation formation.."
Euro placing another Gravestone.. hello 1.18..
Revdax hold on to your TRD shorts..
syd 13:16 GMT April 7, 2006
van Gecko 13:13 GMT bit of a delayed reaction on the Dollar but got to say, your definitely consistant.. GT.
van Gecko 13:13 GMT April 7, 2006
the show is just getting underway.. once the level 1 stops are flushed out below 50 bulls can pickup more cheap euros another figure lower.. fwiwW
euro @1.2190
NY MMM 13:10 GMT April 7, 2006
this move doesnt look like NFP..
van Gecko 11:08 GMT April 7, 2006
EU theEUROqueen 09:04 good day..
may be when eur/usd & usd/chf re-converge with follow through divergence from each other at/near 1.25 again as per my 08:19 GMT January 14, 2005..
gl.
EU theEUROqueen 09:04 GMT April 7, 2006
van Gecko 07:39 GMT April 7, 2006 ..
happy day!
from which level u will change ur mind and become an euro buyers..
Happy trade..
Miami OMIL (/:-> 07:43 GMT April 7, 2006
Anytime van Gecko have a great weekend.
van Gecko 07:39 GMT April 7, 2006
Below 1.2120 is another weekly Gravestone.. 2 weekly Gravestones at the beginning of consecutive Quarters is a vely rare m/t trend continuation formation..
how about Euro printing 1.2028 & 142.28 vs the Dollar & Japan to start the 2nd Quarter ?
hello OMIL (/:-> thank you for your views..
gl
Miami OMIL (/:-> 07:25 GMT April 7, 2006
Hello van Gecko hope you are doing well. Long term view for the eur/usd pair has a bullish triangle I have talked about before with top at 2550-60 and bottom at 1770-60 for now. As long as the market is trading within this triangle we are in a range for the long term view. Long term key resistance is at around the 2100-10 area and key support around the 1970-80 for now. This pair must break the 2440-50 area for now to show a true bullish intention. In the meantime we are in a range for the long term view until these key figures are broken IMHO. Peace and GT
hk ab 07:17 GMT April 7, 2006
eur melting.
Amman/Riyadh H. A. 06:42 GMT April 7, 2006
I may not expect that but it warms my heart to read what you wrote... I just wish!
van Gecko 06:38 GMT April 7, 2006
Dollar camps in snooze.. the next battle zone is 1.2100-1.2050..
below is a repeat of the January Slide of "Good-bye 1.23 Hello 1.18" again..
Cherrios..
Thursday, April 06, 2006
Geneva 18:24 GMT April 6, 2006
Most of the USD negative peoples are more Bush negative and
they forget the realty. Most of those traders or investors lost a lot of money the last 2 years.
Its important not to mix personel idea and market view.
And by the way Bush is doing a great job!. Keep buy dolllars
america will survive. God bless America.
Lahore FM 13:34 GMT April 6, 2006
van Gecko
Cheers!!!
van Gecko 13:32 GMT April 6, 2006
usd/jpy getting ready to add more fuel to the party..
cheerios..
New York BR 12:57 GMT April 6, 2006
08:54 Euro Dives On Trichet
Post ECB rate decision comments by Trichet have pulled the rug out from under the euro as the buck has shot to 1.2238 from about 1.2301 prior & 1.2331. The euro's feeling the heat in the crosses as well as against the yen the combined currency has slipped to 144.08 from 144.75 & tests support around 0.6990 to the pound. Slippage being attributed to saying market expectations are not inline with ECB view, which is a veiled attempt to temper speculation on a May rate hike.
We were short at the res.
van Gecko 06:38 GMT April 6, 2006
HK REVDAX 02:19.. here's your chance to turn a piker sized TRD trade into a potential mid-term windfall trade.. good inter-market set-up to repeat the January slide from 1.23..
in addition, you also have the "PARdex" going for you.. impeccable track record.. managed to call all of the USD major & swing bottoms so far..
Cheerios..
HK REVDAX 02:19 GMT April 6, 2006
A top of Euro/$, which was supposed to take place on April 4, was 'imperfected' from 1.2279 of April 4 to 1.2304 of April 5, a forgivable difference of 25 pips. The indicator further shows that Euro/$ will start moving down from the top of 1.2304 of April 5. It will begin a bit reluctantly but as it moves closer to the time window of April 7, it will accelerate....IMHO.
PAR 17:50 GMT April 5, 2006
US dollar loosing one point a day. From 1.2000 on monday to 1.2300 on wednesday to 1.2500 on Friday despite Snows predictions of good employment numbers. Gold and Euro are replacing dollar as world reserve currencies
Most of the USD negative peoples are more Bush negative and
they forget the realty. Most of those traders or investors lost a lot of money the last 2 years.
Its important not to mix personel idea and market view.
And by the way Bush is doing a great job!. Keep buy dolllars
america will survive. God bless America.
Lahore FM 13:34 GMT April 6, 2006
van Gecko
Cheers!!!
van Gecko 13:32 GMT April 6, 2006
usd/jpy getting ready to add more fuel to the party..
cheerios..
New York BR 12:57 GMT April 6, 2006
08:54 Euro Dives On Trichet
Post ECB rate decision comments by Trichet have pulled the rug out from under the euro as the buck has shot to 1.2238 from about 1.2301 prior & 1.2331. The euro's feeling the heat in the crosses as well as against the yen the combined currency has slipped to 144.08 from 144.75 & tests support around 0.6990 to the pound. Slippage being attributed to saying market expectations are not inline with ECB view, which is a veiled attempt to temper speculation on a May rate hike.
We were short at the res.
van Gecko 06:38 GMT April 6, 2006
HK REVDAX 02:19.. here's your chance to turn a piker sized TRD trade into a potential mid-term windfall trade.. good inter-market set-up to repeat the January slide from 1.23..
in addition, you also have the "PARdex" going for you.. impeccable track record.. managed to call all of the USD major & swing bottoms so far..
Cheerios..
HK REVDAX 02:19 GMT April 6, 2006
A top of Euro/$, which was supposed to take place on April 4, was 'imperfected' from 1.2279 of April 4 to 1.2304 of April 5, a forgivable difference of 25 pips. The indicator further shows that Euro/$ will start moving down from the top of 1.2304 of April 5. It will begin a bit reluctantly but as it moves closer to the time window of April 7, it will accelerate....IMHO.
PAR 17:50 GMT April 5, 2006
US dollar loosing one point a day. From 1.2000 on monday to 1.2300 on wednesday to 1.2500 on Friday despite Snows predictions of good employment numbers. Gold and Euro are replacing dollar as world reserve currencies
Wednesday, April 05, 2006
van Gecko 14:00 GMT April 5, 2006
The state of the Dollar for the recent 3 Euro bounces:
Date____ Eur/Usd Usd/Chf Usd/Jpy
Sept 2/05 1.2589 1.2249 109.20
Jan 23/06 1.2322 1.2555 114.15
Apr 05/06 1.2303 1.2838 117.50
is Dollar weakness accelerating?
van Gecko 08:28 GMT April 5, 2006
Laowen.. good afternoon..
Eur/Chf & Gbp/Chf track each other's direction in a lead/lag fashion with good correlations.. while both cross had been consolidating in a narrow range over the past year, Eur/Chf had recently broke out of its range & now poking at the 2004 high of 1.58 (which corresponds to the old Gbp/Chf 2.39 high) with good odds for the 1.60's.. imo the old Gbp/Chf 2.40/39 m/t target is reasonable once it follow its cousin up & push its master Usd/Chf into orbit.. fwiww..
gl.
Shenzhen Laowen 07:12 GMT April 5, 2006
van Gecko,nice to see you again~
What's your veiw on Gbp/Chf? It looks attractive at 2.26ish. I remember you in June of the last year called its target at 2.40. Is it still valid according to your system? GL and GT
van Gecko 05:34 GMT April 5, 2006
as for the concept of QDN being similar to oscillator.. indeed, human 'oscillator' or herd mentality had proven to work extremely well across the whole spectrum of leveraged investment (and everyday life)..
old human habits die hard.. especially when we are dealing with instant comfort & pains.. why is it only the minority are consistent winners in life & business while the majority are regulated to support the system in perpetualty?
KL.. thanks & noted..
nt.. thanks..
hong kong nt 05:12 GMT April 5, 2006
van Gecko 05:04 GMT April 5, 2006
I read those from local newspaper columns and financial magazines. They are now revising targets from 1.0xx to 1.16xx/1.18xx. One of my best favorite column writer was calling NZD top since .62-3 until .73. When NZD showed .735, he turned long for .76-78...
KL HP 05:08 GMT April 5, 2006
van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 5, 2006
with all due respect gecko, i dont think we will see euro under 1.18 anymore this year, i believe 1.16/1.17 could be in place now as bottom for the rest of this year, QDN is useful when we are near mid/long term market's extreme but we are far from it now, anyway we have a market here, you buy usd i sell usd, good luck
van Gecko 05:04 GMT April 5, 2006
thanks for the suggestion.. btw, I notice your recent harpings on "80% newspaper experts have calling for 1.0xx or even 0.9xxx" where are you reading those infos from?
hong kong nt 04:55 GMT April 5, 2006
van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 5, 2006
Suggestion -- I find your concept of QDN is pretty similar to oscillator. One may get burn easily when market is moving from one equilibrium to another. You may improve your QDN by monitoring the daily change of "usually lose" or unhedged pool of clients in bucket shops, which is proved to be insightful especially for trading frame of 1-2 weeks...
van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 5, 2006
"Weak Dollar Trade Closer....
Dollar drops to 2-mo low on interest rate views.....
Dollar Extends Weakness on Talk of Reserve Diversification....".
'QDN' index near feverish pitch as more overnight Forex headlines for a weak dollar..
jkt-aye 14:47 GMT April 4, market tends to overshoot at times with s/t sentiment induced momentum.. imo levels from here to 1.2350 for the raging euro are good risk/reward s/t contra (m/t with Trend) levels.. & good m/t dollar value zones are Usd/Jpy 116/115, Usd/Chf 1.28/1.27 if seen on this leg..
hong kong nt 15:11 GMT April 4, with due respect to Fettuccine Fellini, long term Fibonacci retracements are not in my book of tricks.. especially when one tries to curve-fit a 20 handle retracement/trend reversal from a multi-year market top..
Cheerios..
hong kong nt 03:31 GMT April 5, 2006
EUR/USD -- for past 6-7 months, 80% newspaper experts have calling for 1.0xx or even 0.9xxx, their words now printed deeply in most players in bucket shops and most players have committed deeper and deeper on the downside...can anyone recall a successful winning history for the bucket shop players under current setting in last 10 years?
Syd 02:43 GMT April 5, 2006
Some players bought 1-month EUR-put/CHF-call options with 1.5720 strike, EUR1.4 billion face value in overseas trading, says Tokyo FX dealer. Suggests buyers view rapid EUR gains overnight as unsustainable.
sanfrancisco analyst 19:09 GMT April 4, 2006
Despite prior warnings of a "dollar crash" while the currency enjoyed a softening policy, the USD closed 2005 up 15% against the Euro, its strongest gain in 8 years.
Ldn Delboy 17:51 GMT April 4, 2006
A typical analyst panic: Sky is falling, buy, sell, there may be no tomorrow!
Unemployment went up by 5000! (but they don’t tell you that the margin of error of the report is +/- 350,000!)
Budget deficit hit record high! (But they don’t tell you that adding 0.5% tax pays for the whole thing!)
You know the rest.
hong kong nt 17:37 GMT April 4, 2006
Deep Death tolls in Iran/Iraq, Deep Double Deficits, Deep Debt plus a Desperate Dump president are enough reasons Dumping Dollar to the Deep Deep..
HK Kevin 16:11 GMT April 4, 2006
HK Revdex and Hong Kong nt. Are two of you station at 2 different bucket shops? Different info from you 2.
HK REVDAX 15:51 GMT April 4, 2006
Ldn Delboy The best fx indicator so far is the one observing the movements of the proletarian or small traders in Hong Kong or the C9s. Most of them are buying Euro and sell US$. They stand a good chance of being chopped.. chopped tomorrow.
Ldn Delboy 15:46 GMT April 4, 2006
If the move was based on data/news I would agree with you but I think today’s move was more of a squeeze and stop hunting (in the absence of any surprising data/news), it should retrace in this or next session IMHO.
HK REVDAX 15:46 GMT April 4, 2006
hong kong nt 15:35 //you will see the forces of gravity working down on your long Euro/$ tomorrow.
hong kong nt 15:44 GMT April 4, 2006
Inside bucket shops, see "historic high" number of players buying $chf as carry trades and say "I have thick pockets to stand adverse move and can earn good interest"...
hong kong nt 15:35 GMT April 4, 2006
HK REVDAX
scale out 10% at 70, why hurry to have all positions closed?
HK REVDAX 15:30 GMT April 4, 2006
hong kong nt Are you refusing to sell Euro/$ at these levels?
hong kong nt 15:24 GMT April 4, 2006
EUR/USD -- round bottom looks more round..
hong kong nt 15:11 GMT April 4, 2006
van Gecko 14:43 GMT April 4, 2006
Am I right putting 0.82-->1.36 is the prevailing uptrend in last 5.5 years? Dips from 1.36-->1.16 is 38.2% Finonacci retracement?
Sunville Storm 14:50 GMT April 4, 2006
Greetings to this forum!
The dollar is making a comeback - and may be dramatic. Watch out.
jkt-aye 14:47 GMT April 4, 2006
Gecko ... any special # to mix with Revdax's special ?
van Gecko 14:43 GMT April 4, 2006
1.36 ~~ > 1.16 is the prevailing trend for the last 15 months..
1.19 ~ > 1.25
1.16 ~ > 1.23
1.18 ~ > 1.22 are all dead cat bounces within the prevailing trend until certain lines are sustained..
but then again, dive hard 'trend followers' must keep the dream alive.. fwiww..
hong kong nt 14:21 GMT April 4, 2006
By labelling oneself as bull or bear may enhance rigidity and hence less apt to this dynamic market. Only trend followers in his/her trading timeframe win in the end...
Haifa ac 14:15 GMT April 4, 2006
van Gecko 14:10 GMT //
My problem with this is : what you call "Baby dollar Bull"--I call AT BEST a TRADING RANGE forming a bottom that can last another year and a half--so the Euro may stay in a range (118-130) for quite sometimes.
We differ there. That is what makes the market.
van Gecko 14:10 GMT April 4, 2006
Haifa ac 12:37.. contrary to the preceptions of cheerleading quacks, dollar bear camps must take out inflection lines on major pairs across the board to reverse the 15 month old baby dollar bull trend.. till then, any substantial dollar dips are good opportunities for bears to unload staild cargos & bulls to reload..
cheerios..
hong kong nt 13:58 GMT April 4, 2006
See many stubborn $ bulls buying more usd in bucket shops tonight...
HK REVDAX 13:46 GMT April 4, 2006
ac and Kevin//Thou Shall Not Disbelieve that the market can do anything and will do anything! Whatever the Hi of today in Euro/$ will unlikely be taken out in tomorrow's development. The day after tomorrow will be something else.
Haifa ac 13:42 GMT April 4, 2006
HK REVDAX 13:30 GMT April 4//
NO WAY!
Ain't no way they will top before taking out the stops at 12323. Too easy a prey. Doubt they will do it today.
You are trying to stop a speeding train. Not good.
HK REVDAX 13:30 GMT April 4, 2006
Euro/$ is making a top today (April 4) and the Hi reached today will unliley be surpassed in tomorrow's development(April 5).
Haifa ac 12:37 GMT April 4, 2006
van Gecko 05:08 GMT April 3, 2006
new month.. new quarter.. & new worst case scenario unfolding for European bulls..//
You , usually, are impeccable on the long term.
Do you suppose they are bluffing?
Or is this move indicating something you overlooked?! TIA.
Rivonia PipPirate 12:20 GMT April 4, 2006
Ouch, dat pacman sell ' n snooze got eaten by the bucket shop april fools. 8-}
hong kong nt 12:13 GMT April 4, 2006
van Gecko 11:28 GMT April 3, 2006
"April 3 (Bloomberg) -- a Bloomberg survey shows.
Sixty percent of the 52 traders, strategists and investors surveyed on March 31 from Sydney to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro this week. Fifty-two percent said the U.S. currency will weaken versus the yen. "
guess the ratio isn't high enough for you to apply contrarian view correctly..
The state of the Dollar for the recent 3 Euro bounces:
Date____ Eur/Usd Usd/Chf Usd/Jpy
Sept 2/05 1.2589 1.2249 109.20
Jan 23/06 1.2322 1.2555 114.15
Apr 05/06 1.2303 1.2838 117.50
is Dollar weakness accelerating?
van Gecko 08:28 GMT April 5, 2006
Laowen.. good afternoon..
Eur/Chf & Gbp/Chf track each other's direction in a lead/lag fashion with good correlations.. while both cross had been consolidating in a narrow range over the past year, Eur/Chf had recently broke out of its range & now poking at the 2004 high of 1.58 (which corresponds to the old Gbp/Chf 2.39 high) with good odds for the 1.60's.. imo the old Gbp/Chf 2.40/39 m/t target is reasonable once it follow its cousin up & push its master Usd/Chf into orbit.. fwiww..
gl.
Shenzhen Laowen 07:12 GMT April 5, 2006
van Gecko,nice to see you again~
What's your veiw on Gbp/Chf? It looks attractive at 2.26ish. I remember you in June of the last year called its target at 2.40. Is it still valid according to your system? GL and GT
van Gecko 05:34 GMT April 5, 2006
as for the concept of QDN being similar to oscillator.. indeed, human 'oscillator' or herd mentality had proven to work extremely well across the whole spectrum of leveraged investment (and everyday life)..
old human habits die hard.. especially when we are dealing with instant comfort & pains.. why is it only the minority are consistent winners in life & business while the majority are regulated to support the system in perpetualty?
KL.. thanks & noted..
nt.. thanks..
hong kong nt 05:12 GMT April 5, 2006
van Gecko 05:04 GMT April 5, 2006
I read those from local newspaper columns and financial magazines. They are now revising targets from 1.0xx to 1.16xx/1.18xx. One of my best favorite column writer was calling NZD top since .62-3 until .73. When NZD showed .735, he turned long for .76-78...
KL HP 05:08 GMT April 5, 2006
van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 5, 2006
with all due respect gecko, i dont think we will see euro under 1.18 anymore this year, i believe 1.16/1.17 could be in place now as bottom for the rest of this year, QDN is useful when we are near mid/long term market's extreme but we are far from it now, anyway we have a market here, you buy usd i sell usd, good luck
van Gecko 05:04 GMT April 5, 2006
thanks for the suggestion.. btw, I notice your recent harpings on "80% newspaper experts have calling for 1.0xx or even 0.9xxx" where are you reading those infos from?
hong kong nt 04:55 GMT April 5, 2006
van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 5, 2006
Suggestion -- I find your concept of QDN is pretty similar to oscillator. One may get burn easily when market is moving from one equilibrium to another. You may improve your QDN by monitoring the daily change of "usually lose" or unhedged pool of clients in bucket shops, which is proved to be insightful especially for trading frame of 1-2 weeks...
van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 5, 2006
"Weak Dollar Trade Closer....
Dollar drops to 2-mo low on interest rate views.....
Dollar Extends Weakness on Talk of Reserve Diversification....".
'QDN' index near feverish pitch as more overnight Forex headlines for a weak dollar..
jkt-aye 14:47 GMT April 4, market tends to overshoot at times with s/t sentiment induced momentum.. imo levels from here to 1.2350 for the raging euro are good risk/reward s/t contra (m/t with Trend) levels.. & good m/t dollar value zones are Usd/Jpy 116/115, Usd/Chf 1.28/1.27 if seen on this leg..
hong kong nt 15:11 GMT April 4, with due respect to Fettuccine Fellini, long term Fibonacci retracements are not in my book of tricks.. especially when one tries to curve-fit a 20 handle retracement/trend reversal from a multi-year market top..
Cheerios..
hong kong nt 03:31 GMT April 5, 2006
EUR/USD -- for past 6-7 months, 80% newspaper experts have calling for 1.0xx or even 0.9xxx, their words now printed deeply in most players in bucket shops and most players have committed deeper and deeper on the downside...can anyone recall a successful winning history for the bucket shop players under current setting in last 10 years?
Syd 02:43 GMT April 5, 2006
Some players bought 1-month EUR-put/CHF-call options with 1.5720 strike, EUR1.4 billion face value in overseas trading, says Tokyo FX dealer. Suggests buyers view rapid EUR gains overnight as unsustainable.
sanfrancisco analyst 19:09 GMT April 4, 2006
Despite prior warnings of a "dollar crash" while the currency enjoyed a softening policy, the USD closed 2005 up 15% against the Euro, its strongest gain in 8 years.
Ldn Delboy 17:51 GMT April 4, 2006
A typical analyst panic: Sky is falling, buy, sell, there may be no tomorrow!
Unemployment went up by 5000! (but they don’t tell you that the margin of error of the report is +/- 350,000!)
Budget deficit hit record high! (But they don’t tell you that adding 0.5% tax pays for the whole thing!)
You know the rest.
hong kong nt 17:37 GMT April 4, 2006
Deep Death tolls in Iran/Iraq, Deep Double Deficits, Deep Debt plus a Desperate Dump president are enough reasons Dumping Dollar to the Deep Deep..
HK Kevin 16:11 GMT April 4, 2006
HK Revdex and Hong Kong nt. Are two of you station at 2 different bucket shops? Different info from you 2.
HK REVDAX 15:51 GMT April 4, 2006
Ldn Delboy The best fx indicator so far is the one observing the movements of the proletarian or small traders in Hong Kong or the C9s. Most of them are buying Euro and sell US$. They stand a good chance of being chopped.. chopped tomorrow.
Ldn Delboy 15:46 GMT April 4, 2006
If the move was based on data/news I would agree with you but I think today’s move was more of a squeeze and stop hunting (in the absence of any surprising data/news), it should retrace in this or next session IMHO.
HK REVDAX 15:46 GMT April 4, 2006
hong kong nt 15:35 //you will see the forces of gravity working down on your long Euro/$ tomorrow.
hong kong nt 15:44 GMT April 4, 2006
Inside bucket shops, see "historic high" number of players buying $chf as carry trades and say "I have thick pockets to stand adverse move and can earn good interest"...
hong kong nt 15:35 GMT April 4, 2006
HK REVDAX
scale out 10% at 70, why hurry to have all positions closed?
HK REVDAX 15:30 GMT April 4, 2006
hong kong nt Are you refusing to sell Euro/$ at these levels?
hong kong nt 15:24 GMT April 4, 2006
EUR/USD -- round bottom looks more round..
hong kong nt 15:11 GMT April 4, 2006
van Gecko 14:43 GMT April 4, 2006
Am I right putting 0.82-->1.36 is the prevailing uptrend in last 5.5 years? Dips from 1.36-->1.16 is 38.2% Finonacci retracement?
Sunville Storm 14:50 GMT April 4, 2006
Greetings to this forum!
The dollar is making a comeback - and may be dramatic. Watch out.
jkt-aye 14:47 GMT April 4, 2006
Gecko ... any special # to mix with Revdax's special ?
van Gecko 14:43 GMT April 4, 2006
1.36 ~~ > 1.16 is the prevailing trend for the last 15 months..
1.19 ~ > 1.25
1.16 ~ > 1.23
1.18 ~ > 1.22 are all dead cat bounces within the prevailing trend until certain lines are sustained..
but then again, dive hard 'trend followers' must keep the dream alive.. fwiww..
hong kong nt 14:21 GMT April 4, 2006
By labelling oneself as bull or bear may enhance rigidity and hence less apt to this dynamic market. Only trend followers in his/her trading timeframe win in the end...
Haifa ac 14:15 GMT April 4, 2006
van Gecko 14:10 GMT //
My problem with this is : what you call "Baby dollar Bull"--I call AT BEST a TRADING RANGE forming a bottom that can last another year and a half--so the Euro may stay in a range (118-130) for quite sometimes.
We differ there. That is what makes the market.
van Gecko 14:10 GMT April 4, 2006
Haifa ac 12:37.. contrary to the preceptions of cheerleading quacks, dollar bear camps must take out inflection lines on major pairs across the board to reverse the 15 month old baby dollar bull trend.. till then, any substantial dollar dips are good opportunities for bears to unload staild cargos & bulls to reload..
cheerios..
hong kong nt 13:58 GMT April 4, 2006
See many stubborn $ bulls buying more usd in bucket shops tonight...
HK REVDAX 13:46 GMT April 4, 2006
ac and Kevin//Thou Shall Not Disbelieve that the market can do anything and will do anything! Whatever the Hi of today in Euro/$ will unlikely be taken out in tomorrow's development. The day after tomorrow will be something else.
Haifa ac 13:42 GMT April 4, 2006
HK REVDAX 13:30 GMT April 4//
NO WAY!
Ain't no way they will top before taking out the stops at 12323. Too easy a prey. Doubt they will do it today.
You are trying to stop a speeding train. Not good.
HK REVDAX 13:30 GMT April 4, 2006
Euro/$ is making a top today (April 4) and the Hi reached today will unliley be surpassed in tomorrow's development(April 5).
Haifa ac 12:37 GMT April 4, 2006
van Gecko 05:08 GMT April 3, 2006
new month.. new quarter.. & new worst case scenario unfolding for European bulls..//
You , usually, are impeccable on the long term.
Do you suppose they are bluffing?
Or is this move indicating something you overlooked?! TIA.
Rivonia PipPirate 12:20 GMT April 4, 2006
Ouch, dat pacman sell ' n snooze got eaten by the bucket shop april fools. 8-}
hong kong nt 12:13 GMT April 4, 2006
van Gecko 11:28 GMT April 3, 2006
"April 3 (Bloomberg) -- a Bloomberg survey shows.
Sixty percent of the 52 traders, strategists and investors surveyed on March 31 from Sydney to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro this week. Fifty-two percent said the U.S. currency will weaken versus the yen. "
guess the ratio isn't high enough for you to apply contrarian view correctly..
Monday, April 03, 2006
hk ab 16:12 GMT April 3, 2006
Gecko//Thanks for the info on dlr/cad front. This pair is always the most patience tester.
van Gecko 15:26 GMT April 3, 2006
hong kong nt 15:04.. thank you for the info.. impressive fade by those bucket shop operators today.. cheers..
hong kong nt 15:04 GMT April 3, 2006
van Gecko 11:28 GMT April 3, 2006
More than 75% of players in bucket shops are selling Euro on bounce and they cite favorable rate differential as the primary reason. Anyway, Euro is still trading within a converging triangle and most bulls and bears are happy now..FWIW..
van Gecko 11:28 GMT April 3, 2006
"April 3 (Bloomberg) -- a Bloomberg survey shows.
Sixty percent of the 52 traders, strategists and investors surveyed on March 31 from Sydney to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro this week. Fifty-two percent said the U.S. currency will weaken versus the yen. "
they are quacking again..
the dollar went up almost 3 figures vs the euro after the March 20th quack.. fwiww..
Cheerios..
van Gecko 08:37 GMT April 3, 2006
ab 05:57.. dlr/cad "vision"
micro term;
news about a Canadian casino's prize collection went missing again may had pushed the Goose back above 1.1750 today.. ;)
short term;
daylies above 1.18 re-target 1.20 with the support of the crosses & dollar..
mid/long term;
having recovered all of the past 7 month's 3 figure under-shoot from the jaws of the "Parity Cheerleaders", weeklies above 1.19/20 re-opens the 1.27 ~ 1.35 skies for patient long marchers..
hk ab 05:57 GMT April 3, 2006
Gecko//would you update the dlr/cad "vision" for the coming weeks???? THANKS!!!!
van Gecko 05:08 GMT April 3, 2006
new month.. new quarter.. & new worst case scenario unfolding for European bulls..
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
Gecko//Thanks for the info on dlr/cad front. This pair is always the most patience tester.
van Gecko 15:26 GMT April 3, 2006
hong kong nt 15:04.. thank you for the info.. impressive fade by those bucket shop operators today.. cheers..
hong kong nt 15:04 GMT April 3, 2006
van Gecko 11:28 GMT April 3, 2006
More than 75% of players in bucket shops are selling Euro on bounce and they cite favorable rate differential as the primary reason. Anyway, Euro is still trading within a converging triangle and most bulls and bears are happy now..FWIW..
van Gecko 11:28 GMT April 3, 2006
"April 3 (Bloomberg) -- a Bloomberg survey shows.
Sixty percent of the 52 traders, strategists and investors surveyed on March 31 from Sydney to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro this week. Fifty-two percent said the U.S. currency will weaken versus the yen. "
they are quacking again..
the dollar went up almost 3 figures vs the euro after the March 20th quack.. fwiww..
Cheerios..
van Gecko 08:37 GMT April 3, 2006
ab 05:57.. dlr/cad "vision"
micro term;
news about a Canadian casino's prize collection went missing again may had pushed the Goose back above 1.1750 today.. ;)
short term;
daylies above 1.18 re-target 1.20 with the support of the crosses & dollar..
mid/long term;
having recovered all of the past 7 month's 3 figure under-shoot from the jaws of the "Parity Cheerleaders", weeklies above 1.19/20 re-opens the 1.27 ~ 1.35 skies for patient long marchers..
hk ab 05:57 GMT April 3, 2006
Gecko//would you update the dlr/cad "vision" for the coming weeks???? THANKS!!!!
van Gecko 05:08 GMT April 3, 2006
new month.. new quarter.. & new worst case scenario unfolding for European bulls..
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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