Gecko Global Analytics

van Gecko 14:00 GMT April 5, 2006
The state of the Dollar for the recent 3 Euro bounces:

Date____ Eur/Usd Usd/Chf Usd/Jpy
Sept 2/05 1.2589 1.2249 109.20
Jan 23/06 1.2322 1.2555 114.15
Apr 05/06 1.2303 1.2838 117.50

is Dollar weakness accelerating?


van Gecko 08:28 GMT April 5, 2006
Laowen.. good afternoon..
Eur/Chf & Gbp/Chf track each other's direction in a lead/lag fashion with good correlations.. while both cross had been consolidating in a narrow range over the past year, Eur/Chf had recently broke out of its range & now poking at the 2004 high of 1.58 (which corresponds to the old Gbp/Chf 2.39 high) with good odds for the 1.60's.. imo the old Gbp/Chf 2.40/39 m/t target is reasonable once it follow its cousin up & push its master Usd/Chf into orbit.. fwiww..
gl.


Shenzhen Laowen 07:12 GMT April 5, 2006
van Gecko,nice to see you again~

What's your veiw on Gbp/Chf? It looks attractive at 2.26ish. I remember you in June of the last year called its target at 2.40. Is it still valid according to your system? GL and GT


van Gecko 05:34 GMT April 5, 2006
as for the concept of QDN being similar to oscillator.. indeed, human 'oscillator' or herd mentality had proven to work extremely well across the whole spectrum of leveraged investment (and everyday life)..
old human habits die hard.. especially when we are dealing with instant comfort & pains.. why is it only the minority are consistent winners in life & business while the majority are regulated to support the system in perpetualty?

KL.. thanks & noted..
nt.. thanks..

hong kong nt 05:12 GMT April 5, 2006
van Gecko 05:04 GMT April 5, 2006
I read those from local newspaper columns and financial magazines. They are now revising targets from 1.0xx to 1.16xx/1.18xx. One of my best favorite column writer was calling NZD top since .62-3 until .73. When NZD showed .735, he turned long for .76-78...

KL HP 05:08 GMT April 5, 2006
van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 5, 2006
with all due respect gecko, i dont think we will see euro under 1.18 anymore this year, i believe 1.16/1.17 could be in place now as bottom for the rest of this year, QDN is useful when we are near mid/long term market's extreme but we are far from it now, anyway we have a market here, you buy usd i sell usd, good luck

van Gecko 05:04 GMT April 5, 2006
thanks for the suggestion.. btw, I notice your recent harpings on "80% newspaper experts have calling for 1.0xx or even 0.9xxx" where are you reading those infos from?

hong kong nt 04:55 GMT April 5, 2006
van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 5, 2006
Suggestion -- I find your concept of QDN is pretty similar to oscillator. One may get burn easily when market is moving from one equilibrium to another. You may improve your QDN by monitoring the daily change of "usually lose" or unhedged pool of clients in bucket shops, which is proved to be insightful especially for trading frame of 1-2 weeks...


van Gecko 04:28 GMT April 5, 2006
"Weak Dollar Trade Closer....
Dollar drops to 2-mo low on interest rate views.....
Dollar Extends Weakness on Talk of Reserve Diversification....".

'QDN' index near feverish pitch as more overnight Forex headlines for a weak dollar..

jkt-aye 14:47 GMT April 4, market tends to overshoot at times with s/t sentiment induced momentum.. imo levels from here to 1.2350 for the raging euro are good risk/reward s/t contra (m/t with Trend) levels.. & good m/t dollar value zones are Usd/Jpy 116/115, Usd/Chf 1.28/1.27 if seen on this leg..

hong kong nt 15:11 GMT April 4, with due respect to Fettuccine Fellini, long term Fibonacci retracements are not in my book of tricks.. especially when one tries to curve-fit a 20 handle retracement/trend reversal from a multi-year market top..
Cheerios..



hong kong nt 03:31 GMT April 5, 2006
EUR/USD -- for past 6-7 months, 80% newspaper experts have calling for 1.0xx or even 0.9xxx, their words now printed deeply in most players in bucket shops and most players have committed deeper and deeper on the downside...can anyone recall a successful winning history for the bucket shop players under current setting in last 10 years?

Syd 02:43 GMT April 5, 2006
Some players bought 1-month EUR-put/CHF-call options with 1.5720 strike, EUR1.4 billion face value in overseas trading, says Tokyo FX dealer. Suggests buyers view rapid EUR gains overnight as unsustainable.

sanfrancisco analyst 19:09 GMT April 4, 2006
Despite prior warnings of a "dollar crash" while the currency enjoyed a softening policy, the USD closed 2005 up 15% against the Euro, its strongest gain in 8 years.

Ldn Delboy 17:51 GMT April 4, 2006
A typical analyst panic: Sky is falling, buy, sell, there may be no tomorrow!
Unemployment went up by 5000! (but they don’t tell you that the margin of error of the report is +/- 350,000!)
Budget deficit hit record high! (But they don’t tell you that adding 0.5% tax pays for the whole thing!)
You know the rest.

hong kong nt 17:37 GMT April 4, 2006
Deep Death tolls in Iran/Iraq, Deep Double Deficits, Deep Debt plus a Desperate Dump president are enough reasons Dumping Dollar to the Deep Deep..


HK Kevin 16:11 GMT April 4, 2006
HK Revdex and Hong Kong nt. Are two of you station at 2 different bucket shops? Different info from you 2.

HK REVDAX 15:51 GMT April 4, 2006
Ldn Delboy The best fx indicator so far is the one observing the movements of the proletarian or small traders in Hong Kong or the C9s. Most of them are buying Euro and sell US$. They stand a good chance of being chopped.. chopped tomorrow.

Ldn Delboy 15:46 GMT April 4, 2006
If the move was based on data/news I would agree with you but I think today’s move was more of a squeeze and stop hunting (in the absence of any surprising data/news), it should retrace in this or next session IMHO.

HK REVDAX 15:46 GMT April 4, 2006
hong kong nt 15:35 //you will see the forces of gravity working down on your long Euro/$ tomorrow.

hong kong nt 15:44 GMT April 4, 2006
Inside bucket shops, see "historic high" number of players buying $chf as carry trades and say "I have thick pockets to stand adverse move and can earn good interest"...

hong kong nt 15:35 GMT April 4, 2006
HK REVDAX
scale out 10% at 70, why hurry to have all positions closed?

HK REVDAX 15:30 GMT April 4, 2006
hong kong nt Are you refusing to sell Euro/$ at these levels?

hong kong nt 15:24 GMT April 4, 2006
EUR/USD -- round bottom looks more round..

hong kong nt 15:11 GMT April 4, 2006
van Gecko 14:43 GMT April 4, 2006
Am I right putting 0.82-->1.36 is the prevailing uptrend in last 5.5 years? Dips from 1.36-->1.16 is 38.2% Finonacci retracement?

Sunville Storm 14:50 GMT April 4, 2006
Greetings to this forum!
The dollar is making a comeback - and may be dramatic. Watch out.

jkt-aye 14:47 GMT April 4, 2006
Gecko ... any special # to mix with Revdax's special ?

van Gecko 14:43 GMT April 4, 2006
1.36 ~~ > 1.16 is the prevailing trend for the last 15 months..
1.19 ~ > 1.25
1.16 ~ > 1.23
1.18 ~ > 1.22 are all dead cat bounces within the prevailing trend until certain lines are sustained..
but then again, dive hard 'trend followers' must keep the dream alive.. fwiww..



hong kong nt 14:21 GMT April 4, 2006
By labelling oneself as bull or bear may enhance rigidity and hence less apt to this dynamic market. Only trend followers in his/her trading timeframe win in the end...

Haifa ac 14:15 GMT April 4, 2006
van Gecko 14:10 GMT //
My problem with this is : what you call "Baby dollar Bull"--I call AT BEST a TRADING RANGE forming a bottom that can last another year and a half--so the Euro may stay in a range (118-130) for quite sometimes.
We differ there. That is what makes the market.


van Gecko 14:10 GMT April 4, 2006
Haifa ac 12:37.. contrary to the preceptions of cheerleading quacks, dollar bear camps must take out inflection lines on major pairs across the board to reverse the 15 month old baby dollar bull trend.. till then, any substantial dollar dips are good opportunities for bears to unload staild cargos & bulls to reload..
cheerios..


hong kong nt 13:58 GMT April 4, 2006
See many stubborn $ bulls buying more usd in bucket shops tonight...

HK REVDAX 13:46 GMT April 4, 2006
ac and Kevin//Thou Shall Not Disbelieve that the market can do anything and will do anything! Whatever the Hi of today in Euro/$ will unlikely be taken out in tomorrow's development. The day after tomorrow will be something else.

Haifa ac 13:42 GMT April 4, 2006
HK REVDAX 13:30 GMT April 4//
NO WAY!
Ain't no way they will top before taking out the stops at 12323. Too easy a prey. Doubt they will do it today.
You are trying to stop a speeding train. Not good.

HK REVDAX 13:30 GMT April 4, 2006
Euro/$ is making a top today (April 4) and the Hi reached today will unliley be surpassed in tomorrow's development(April 5).


Haifa ac 12:37 GMT April 4, 2006
van Gecko 05:08 GMT April 3, 2006
new month.. new quarter.. & new worst case scenario unfolding for European bulls..//

You , usually, are impeccable on the long term.
Do you suppose they are bluffing?
Or is this move indicating something you overlooked?! TIA.


Rivonia PipPirate 12:20 GMT April 4, 2006
Ouch, dat pacman sell ' n snooze got eaten by the bucket shop april fools. 8-}

hong kong nt 12:13 GMT April 4, 2006
van Gecko 11:28 GMT April 3, 2006
"April 3 (Bloomberg) -- a Bloomberg survey shows.
Sixty percent of the 52 traders, strategists and investors surveyed on March 31 from Sydney to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro this week. Fifty-two percent said the U.S. currency will weaken versus the yen. "

guess the ratio isn't high enough for you to apply contrarian view correctly..