Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Thursday, December 16, 2004
jkt-aye 15:54 GMT December 16, 2004
Gecko...even your whistle sound nice to me. lol
dc fxq 15:50 GMT December 16, 2004
van Gecko 15:40 GMT
Jingling pockets, Jingling pockets,
All the way to the bank!
LoL
van Gecko 15:40 GMT December 16, 2004
Jkt-aye.. tough to change tunes on a dime these days.. can't compete with all those virtual quick change disc jockeys.. whats your favorite Christmas carol?
Jkt-aye 15:13 GMT December 16, 2004
Van Gecko ... I hear you still singing the same song recently. No ?
Bruxville Jim 15:09 GMT December 16, 2004
Rumours of possible intervention are supposed to be the reason for the sudden drop. Volume is said to have been huge. (Trusted sources, officially unconfimed though)
Sing GD 14:26 GMT December 16, 2004
Wow , go out for a bite and we are down a big figure , thk God for stops ..
van Gecko 14:02 GMT December 16, 2004
a little nudge from BOJ & their cronies here would go a long way to finish off those determined but one dimensional euro pushers..
van Gecko 07:19 GMT December 16, 2004
London.. major tops & bottoms are usually form in December & January for the following year or m/t period..
after climbing 5000+ pips over the last 4 years & 1200+ pips during the last 2 months the bookie odds are for some real money market moving elephants to place their m/t Euro bets next year on a major correction (or even a mult-year inflection slide) vs climbing another 700 pips up to 1.40 from here despite the latest screams & sensationalism over those 'triple deficit/dollar devaluation' stories..
for Euro to continue on a sustained m/t up move from here, it must have support from gold & its crosses.. a tough bull job under the present inter-market dynamics with eur/gbp already in a side to down correction, eur/jpy showing signs of retreat infront of a multi-year top, & gold in the middle of doing a Olympic medal size dive after failing to take out 455..
heres a neat snozzing idea for some sleepless traders :))
merry Christmas..
London. 18:37 GMT December 15, 2004
Van Gecko is you opinion Euro still in a correction mode - you may have finished for year already , but if your around appreciate your view .
Gecko...even your whistle sound nice to me. lol
dc fxq 15:50 GMT December 16, 2004
van Gecko 15:40 GMT
Jingling pockets, Jingling pockets,
All the way to the bank!
LoL
van Gecko 15:40 GMT December 16, 2004
Jkt-aye.. tough to change tunes on a dime these days.. can't compete with all those virtual quick change disc jockeys.. whats your favorite Christmas carol?
Jkt-aye 15:13 GMT December 16, 2004
Van Gecko ... I hear you still singing the same song recently. No ?
Bruxville Jim 15:09 GMT December 16, 2004
Rumours of possible intervention are supposed to be the reason for the sudden drop. Volume is said to have been huge. (Trusted sources, officially unconfimed though)
Sing GD 14:26 GMT December 16, 2004
Wow , go out for a bite and we are down a big figure , thk God for stops ..
van Gecko 14:02 GMT December 16, 2004
a little nudge from BOJ & their cronies here would go a long way to finish off those determined but one dimensional euro pushers..
van Gecko 07:19 GMT December 16, 2004
London.. major tops & bottoms are usually form in December & January for the following year or m/t period..
after climbing 5000+ pips over the last 4 years & 1200+ pips during the last 2 months the bookie odds are for some real money market moving elephants to place their m/t Euro bets next year on a major correction (or even a mult-year inflection slide) vs climbing another 700 pips up to 1.40 from here despite the latest screams & sensationalism over those 'triple deficit/dollar devaluation' stories..
for Euro to continue on a sustained m/t up move from here, it must have support from gold & its crosses.. a tough bull job under the present inter-market dynamics with eur/gbp already in a side to down correction, eur/jpy showing signs of retreat infront of a multi-year top, & gold in the middle of doing a Olympic medal size dive after failing to take out 455..
heres a neat snozzing idea for some sleepless traders :))
merry Christmas..
London. 18:37 GMT December 15, 2004
Van Gecko is you opinion Euro still in a correction mode - you may have finished for year already , but if your around appreciate your view .
Friday, December 10, 2004
hk ab 13:58 GMT December 10, 2004
Gecko// Congratulations on the 2nd streak m/t prediction.
EU ZORRO 11:24 GMT December 10, 2004
....BTW...Hat's off to Van Gecko....!!!!
...I will try to replace half of my long EUROS here.....
...IMO...below 1,30 it's a bargain for next year...
Haifa ac 10:57 GMT December 10, 2004
MUST REPEAT A FEW van Gecko recent Pearls:
1.
van Gecko 10:02 GMT November 25, 2004
from a historical prespective, anytime the Dollar had penetrated Dollar Index 85-80 after a Long term down trend offers very good odd for a potential sharp long to medium term trend change..
on each of the past 4 L/T trend reversals, the Dollar climbed at least 1800 basis points over the subsequent L/M/T periods.. the 1995-2001 L/T up trend reversed near index 80..
in 1988 the Dollar reversed the 4000 basis point L/T downtrend after the '85 Plaza accord near index 85.. it is now at index 82 after declining 4000 basis points for the last 4 years..fwiw..
2.
van Gecko 10:11 GMT November 26, 2004
sa.. a close below 1.3150 would suggest euro may had seen a blow-off top for the rest of the year.. so instead of the recent one way play from 1.25, December could turn out to be a nice & friendly Jingle Bell month with both camps ringing each other's X'mas bells between the ranges 1.33 <->1.29 -> 1.29<->1.25..
3.
van Gecko 22:28 GMT December 1, 2004
"08:13 GMT October 15, 2004
"This is the end, Beautiful friend
This is the end, My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end.."
getting close again friends...
enjoy "American bye" while it last..
4.
van Gecko 09:39 GMT December 3, 2004
"08:27 GMT December 1, 2004
the little dollar setting up for a 2 figure blast to start the month.."
another blast up to 1.1630 to end the week with a bang..
should some of those DBB members start doing SAR.. 1.1830 is within max weekly ATR..
Cheerios..
5.Van jv 17:27 GMT December 6, 2004
EU ZORRO ///
How much dip is your dip?
Sic transit....
Athens 10:55 GMT December 10, 2004
Last week I said here, even if the currencies post new highs this week (last week), prepare to kiss them good bye. Here we are then, a USD recovery but some caution is needed now as the Dollar has or is reaching short term O/B territory and some retracements cannot be ruled out. Have a good weekend.
prague viktor 03:47 GMT December 10, 2004
van Gecko 01:38 GMT December 10, 2004..G.day mate! the 2 part from the MIB show...great point with the gold..for the long run do u still see 1,14888 ..as Mr Snow is back to the game once again..TIA..G/T
van Gecko 03:40 GMT December 10, 2004
Ldn 03.28.. Tanigaki is preparing a yummy pre Christmas Teriyaki steak dinner for those hungry $bears.. :))
Ldn 03:28 GMT December 10, 2004
What the censored going on
Never seen such rapid movement anyone know what it is
its similar to a NY open or european open
ICT ML 03:19 GMT December 10, 2004
well just an observation, but for something that is still "bullish" to many, eur-usd is sure spending the majority of its recent time at the extreme low end of its range and making lower highs intraday to boot........there are many ways to kill a cat, and I believe dumping gold to do it could have been an ingenious tactic used :-)
Ldn 02:24 GMT December 10, 2004
Tanigaki: FX Mkt Moves Seem To Be Taking Breather Now
he may be speaking a little too soon
van Gecko 01:38 GMT December 10, 2004
gold bugs are now in a near panic 'Dump it on any Blip' p/t mode.. liquidity is near non-existent.. pandemonium could set in if theres no late comers to buy it down at the $425/30 panic station..
a great market for those Men in Black to do their shadowy tricks..
cheerios..
dc fxq 01:26 GMT December 10, 2004
MOW, if the ECB and MoF wanted to get real bang for the buck in the market, would be the time to buy $ and sell Eur and Yen --- put a real fear of gods factor into the market for several days if not more.
shanghai bc 01:14 GMT December 10, 2004
They have some 100 billion Dollars as reserves..More phychological than real effct..But their receipts from Oil sales could be a very large sum in the long run and if they recieve in Euro,that could have a real effect on Eur/Usd in the long run too..
NYCNYCNYC 01:01 GMT December 10, 2004
Russia's CB may reduce USD portion of reserves.
Here, at 1.33? Not 82 4 years ago, or do they want to do it at 1. 50, if we get there?
Gecko// Congratulations on the 2nd streak m/t prediction.
EU ZORRO 11:24 GMT December 10, 2004
....BTW...Hat's off to Van Gecko....!!!!
...I will try to replace half of my long EUROS here.....
...IMO...below 1,30 it's a bargain for next year...
Haifa ac 10:57 GMT December 10, 2004
MUST REPEAT A FEW van Gecko recent Pearls:
1.
van Gecko 10:02 GMT November 25, 2004
from a historical prespective, anytime the Dollar had penetrated Dollar Index 85-80 after a Long term down trend offers very good odd for a potential sharp long to medium term trend change..
on each of the past 4 L/T trend reversals, the Dollar climbed at least 1800 basis points over the subsequent L/M/T periods.. the 1995-2001 L/T up trend reversed near index 80..
in 1988 the Dollar reversed the 4000 basis point L/T downtrend after the '85 Plaza accord near index 85.. it is now at index 82 after declining 4000 basis points for the last 4 years..fwiw..
2.
van Gecko 10:11 GMT November 26, 2004
sa.. a close below 1.3150 would suggest euro may had seen a blow-off top for the rest of the year.. so instead of the recent one way play from 1.25, December could turn out to be a nice & friendly Jingle Bell month with both camps ringing each other's X'mas bells between the ranges 1.33 <->1.29 -> 1.29<->1.25..
3.
van Gecko 22:28 GMT December 1, 2004
"08:13 GMT October 15, 2004
"This is the end, Beautiful friend
This is the end, My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end.."
getting close again friends...
enjoy "American bye" while it last..
4.
van Gecko 09:39 GMT December 3, 2004
"08:27 GMT December 1, 2004
the little dollar setting up for a 2 figure blast to start the month.."
another blast up to 1.1630 to end the week with a bang..
should some of those DBB members start doing SAR.. 1.1830 is within max weekly ATR..
Cheerios..
5.Van jv 17:27 GMT December 6, 2004
EU ZORRO ///
How much dip is your dip?
Sic transit....
Athens 10:55 GMT December 10, 2004
Last week I said here, even if the currencies post new highs this week (last week), prepare to kiss them good bye. Here we are then, a USD recovery but some caution is needed now as the Dollar has or is reaching short term O/B territory and some retracements cannot be ruled out. Have a good weekend.
prague viktor 03:47 GMT December 10, 2004
van Gecko 01:38 GMT December 10, 2004..G.day mate! the 2 part from the MIB show...great point with the gold..for the long run do u still see 1,14888 ..as Mr Snow is back to the game once again..TIA..G/T
van Gecko 03:40 GMT December 10, 2004
Ldn 03.28.. Tanigaki is preparing a yummy pre Christmas Teriyaki steak dinner for those hungry $bears.. :))
Ldn 03:28 GMT December 10, 2004
What the censored going on
Never seen such rapid movement anyone know what it is
its similar to a NY open or european open
ICT ML 03:19 GMT December 10, 2004
well just an observation, but for something that is still "bullish" to many, eur-usd is sure spending the majority of its recent time at the extreme low end of its range and making lower highs intraday to boot........there are many ways to kill a cat, and I believe dumping gold to do it could have been an ingenious tactic used :-)
Ldn 02:24 GMT December 10, 2004
Tanigaki: FX Mkt Moves Seem To Be Taking Breather Now
he may be speaking a little too soon
van Gecko 01:38 GMT December 10, 2004
gold bugs are now in a near panic 'Dump it on any Blip' p/t mode.. liquidity is near non-existent.. pandemonium could set in if theres no late comers to buy it down at the $425/30 panic station..
a great market for those Men in Black to do their shadowy tricks..
cheerios..
dc fxq 01:26 GMT December 10, 2004
MOW, if the ECB and MoF wanted to get real bang for the buck in the market, would be the time to buy $ and sell Eur and Yen --- put a real fear of gods factor into the market for several days if not more.
shanghai bc 01:14 GMT December 10, 2004
They have some 100 billion Dollars as reserves..More phychological than real effct..But their receipts from Oil sales could be a very large sum in the long run and if they recieve in Euro,that could have a real effect on Eur/Usd in the long run too..
NYCNYCNYC 01:01 GMT December 10, 2004
Russia's CB may reduce USD portion of reserves.
Here, at 1.33? Not 82 4 years ago, or do they want to do it at 1. 50, if we get there?
Wednesday, December 08, 2004
van Gecko 03:48 GMT December 9, 2004
London 15:06.. exact market turning points are only evident in hindsight after the market had moved long past the previous tops & bottoms.. anyone who tells you they can consistently pin point the exact market swings in advance are born again Houdini wannabees.. one of the many tricks of the trade in this biz is to follow the market after it had taken out some major levels from a previous major or intermediate tops/bottoms (ie. turtles).. another trick is in applying good sound analytics to identify market reactions at/near major market levels or inflection points and scale in positions in anticipation of a directional change.. both methods (or any methods) requires sound risk & positional trade management tactics within the traders comfort zones in-order to enhanced ones longevity & make real money consistently in this biz..
as for 'quick change artists' who thinks they can beat the market trading micro noise swings.. while some of those rare breed may indeed exist in real life, had never meet any who can consistently make real money & survive over the long haul.. imo successful 'low risk' short term noise swing trading myths exist only in books & subscriptions hypes..
ICT ML 03:00.. cheers.. gl with your possies..
ICT ML 03:00 GMT December 9, 2004
van Gecko 02:00 GMT December 9, 2004
right on mate, just have to let all the die hards and jonny come lates buy back in:-) we shall see what happens in a few hours.
van Gecko 02:00 GMT December 9, 2004
its was around the same time yesterday the Dollar got rolling in Asia.. major sentiment shifts in the minds of market moving elephants usually don't change over-night..
cheerios..
van Gecko 01:28 GMT December 9, 2004
dc fxq 22:56.. i think after letting the bulls blow past 1.30 & blew their chance in putting out the fire at the bud..the market dynamics of the last few days suggest they had adopted a psycho/passive 'get more bang for bucks spent' tactic instead of the reactive 'in you face' style of the past..
realizing time & money is on their side, they may be content with covert massaging of certain lines in the sand and let the mounting psychological pressures to play its tricks in the mind of the bulls for an orderly natural turn..
some objective thinking seasoned bulls will see the underlying writings on the wall and get out while the going is good.. where as the more subjective types & late comers joining the party will always add some last minute liquidity near the end of all trends..
dc fxq 22:56 GMT December 8, 2004
Topic for Discussion
Central bankers are not terribly bright!. This morning, after days and weeks of blather about bemoaning the valuation of the Euro, the ECB missed a golden opportunity to crush EURUSD.
Get consider what may have happened had the ECB stepped in and done a small sale near the lows on the first bounce up and then spread the word they had intervened.
Any guesses where EURUSD might have bottomed out then?
Food for thought.
Syd 18:54 GMT December 8, 2004
The CRB Index of 17 commodities futures market fell not quite three points, to as low as 276.36. traders say the technical damage has been done and expect the index to ultimately dip to 272.18 - 271.96 support. The signal for the move would be decisive trading below 277.35. DJ
Chicago CME 17:52 GMT December 8, 2004
Saw some major liquidation by CTA's around the IMM open. Many were due to roll positions from Dec into Mar but instead elected to just unwind Dec. Remains to be seen if they will go long the Mar ccy's to get back into their short dollar possies. This runup in ccy's over the past couple of months has really saved their bacon. Their drawdowns were looking horrendous as of end Q3. Now many CTA's are flat to slightly higher for the year. A couple that I spoke with sound like they are pretty much done for the year. Year end parties begin this week and I think many of them just want to get pissed and put this stressful year behind them....
London 15:06 GMT December 8, 2004
Rivonia PipPirate He (Van Gecko) got some stick on here with his call, but knowing him from the past ,always correct even thought the market doesnt comply immediatly
Rivonia PipPirate 14:59 GMT December 8, 2004
London. 14:37 GMT December 8, 2004
... its two weeks overdue, but your timing excellent as always
I wonder if this sentence could be classed as an oxymoron?
Rivonia PipPirate 17:40 GMT October 22, 2004
Projected low 4 CAD today was 12345. Nice # .....
Projected high for today 12345. Still a nice #
London. 14:37 GMT December 8, 2004
van Gecko 13:35 btw good call, its two weeks overdue, but your timing excellent as always.
prague viktor 14:31 GMT December 8, 2004
van Gecko 13:35..yeah mate MIB they just started the show.. they started it slowely and softly that is the first part from the show hopefully to the xmass we can see ur tgt 1,295-1,30 G/T G/L
Brisbane 13:41 GMT December 8, 2004
Spot gold has broken through support at $440 a troy ounce and fallen to a 3-week low at $436.85/oz
Ldn 13:37 GMT December 8, 2004
van Gecko if its anything like the duck poo we get around here, not a pretty sight
dc fxq 13:37 GMT December 8, 2004
we are in a "catch a falling knife" scenario here for EURUSD. Like you I have some S/T scalping levels based on O/S readings but went long and then flat twice with minor losses. :)
van Gecko 13:35 GMT December 8, 2004
G.day viktor 12:43.. indeed those MIB are doing their job frustrating the 1.35 pushers.. below 1.32 look for a 'throwing in my last towel scramble' down to 1.3000/1.2950 elevator shafts..
Ldn 12:35.. some well placed Goose dungs landing on whoopsy is not a pretty sight..
Makassar Alimin 12:53 GMT December 8, 2004
out for 25 pips and flat again, looks hard now to go beyond 1.3335
if those elephants Gecko mentioned before find it hard to get out at their target 1.3370 then i think we are heading for lower euro maybe
prague viktor 12:43 GMT December 8, 2004
van Gecko..G.day mate! ( men in black....) are doing there job by a great way ..step by step what the next level is 1,323?1,318???G/T
Ldn 12:35 GMT December 8, 2004
van Gecko well lets hope those elephants had dont their whoopsy first and it doesnt land on us.
van Gecko 12:28 GMT December 8, 2004
Ldn 11:25.. top heavy elephant bulls are looking to 'SOB' in front of 1.3350/70 before 1.3250.. still flying up here in the 1.22 skies with the $Goose?
Ldn 11:25 GMT December 8, 2004
Break in EUR/USD below 1.3370 is bearish, and signs are that a temporary top is in place. A daily close below 1.3350 will further bolster this view.
HSBC
Haifa ac 08:20 GMT December 8, 2004
Seems like Gecko was only a few days premature.
B.A. BOCA 08:05 GMT December 8, 2004
gold taking a beating...444.95
London. 07:54 GMT December 8, 2004
Traders say overbsold technical signals and increasing verbal intervention from European and Japanese officials are beginning to rattle the market triggering profit taking and reduction of exposure.
London 15:06.. exact market turning points are only evident in hindsight after the market had moved long past the previous tops & bottoms.. anyone who tells you they can consistently pin point the exact market swings in advance are born again Houdini wannabees.. one of the many tricks of the trade in this biz is to follow the market after it had taken out some major levels from a previous major or intermediate tops/bottoms (ie. turtles).. another trick is in applying good sound analytics to identify market reactions at/near major market levels or inflection points and scale in positions in anticipation of a directional change.. both methods (or any methods) requires sound risk & positional trade management tactics within the traders comfort zones in-order to enhanced ones longevity & make real money consistently in this biz..
as for 'quick change artists' who thinks they can beat the market trading micro noise swings.. while some of those rare breed may indeed exist in real life, had never meet any who can consistently make real money & survive over the long haul.. imo successful 'low risk' short term noise swing trading myths exist only in books & subscriptions hypes..
ICT ML 03:00.. cheers.. gl with your possies..
ICT ML 03:00 GMT December 9, 2004
van Gecko 02:00 GMT December 9, 2004
right on mate, just have to let all the die hards and jonny come lates buy back in:-) we shall see what happens in a few hours.
van Gecko 02:00 GMT December 9, 2004
its was around the same time yesterday the Dollar got rolling in Asia.. major sentiment shifts in the minds of market moving elephants usually don't change over-night..
cheerios..
van Gecko 01:28 GMT December 9, 2004
dc fxq 22:56.. i think after letting the bulls blow past 1.30 & blew their chance in putting out the fire at the bud..the market dynamics of the last few days suggest they had adopted a psycho/passive 'get more bang for bucks spent' tactic instead of the reactive 'in you face' style of the past..
realizing time & money is on their side, they may be content with covert massaging of certain lines in the sand and let the mounting psychological pressures to play its tricks in the mind of the bulls for an orderly natural turn..
some objective thinking seasoned bulls will see the underlying writings on the wall and get out while the going is good.. where as the more subjective types & late comers joining the party will always add some last minute liquidity near the end of all trends..
dc fxq 22:56 GMT December 8, 2004
Topic for Discussion
Central bankers are not terribly bright!. This morning, after days and weeks of blather about bemoaning the valuation of the Euro, the ECB missed a golden opportunity to crush EURUSD.
Get consider what may have happened had the ECB stepped in and done a small sale near the lows on the first bounce up and then spread the word they had intervened.
Any guesses where EURUSD might have bottomed out then?
Food for thought.
Syd 18:54 GMT December 8, 2004
The CRB Index of 17 commodities futures market fell not quite three points, to as low as 276.36. traders say the technical damage has been done and expect the index to ultimately dip to 272.18 - 271.96 support. The signal for the move would be decisive trading below 277.35. DJ
Chicago CME 17:52 GMT December 8, 2004
Saw some major liquidation by CTA's around the IMM open. Many were due to roll positions from Dec into Mar but instead elected to just unwind Dec. Remains to be seen if they will go long the Mar ccy's to get back into their short dollar possies. This runup in ccy's over the past couple of months has really saved their bacon. Their drawdowns were looking horrendous as of end Q3. Now many CTA's are flat to slightly higher for the year. A couple that I spoke with sound like they are pretty much done for the year. Year end parties begin this week and I think many of them just want to get pissed and put this stressful year behind them....
London 15:06 GMT December 8, 2004
Rivonia PipPirate He (Van Gecko) got some stick on here with his call, but knowing him from the past ,always correct even thought the market doesnt comply immediatly
Rivonia PipPirate 14:59 GMT December 8, 2004
London. 14:37 GMT December 8, 2004
... its two weeks overdue, but your timing excellent as always
I wonder if this sentence could be classed as an oxymoron?
Rivonia PipPirate 17:40 GMT October 22, 2004
Projected low 4 CAD today was 12345. Nice # .....
Projected high for today 12345. Still a nice #
London. 14:37 GMT December 8, 2004
van Gecko 13:35 btw good call, its two weeks overdue, but your timing excellent as always.
prague viktor 14:31 GMT December 8, 2004
van Gecko 13:35..yeah mate MIB they just started the show.. they started it slowely and softly that is the first part from the show hopefully to the xmass we can see ur tgt 1,295-1,30 G/T G/L
Brisbane 13:41 GMT December 8, 2004
Spot gold has broken through support at $440 a troy ounce and fallen to a 3-week low at $436.85/oz
Ldn 13:37 GMT December 8, 2004
van Gecko if its anything like the duck poo we get around here, not a pretty sight
dc fxq 13:37 GMT December 8, 2004
we are in a "catch a falling knife" scenario here for EURUSD. Like you I have some S/T scalping levels based on O/S readings but went long and then flat twice with minor losses. :)
van Gecko 13:35 GMT December 8, 2004
G.day viktor 12:43.. indeed those MIB are doing their job frustrating the 1.35 pushers.. below 1.32 look for a 'throwing in my last towel scramble' down to 1.3000/1.2950 elevator shafts..
Ldn 12:35.. some well placed Goose dungs landing on whoopsy is not a pretty sight..
Makassar Alimin 12:53 GMT December 8, 2004
out for 25 pips and flat again, looks hard now to go beyond 1.3335
if those elephants Gecko mentioned before find it hard to get out at their target 1.3370 then i think we are heading for lower euro maybe
prague viktor 12:43 GMT December 8, 2004
van Gecko..G.day mate! ( men in black....) are doing there job by a great way ..step by step what the next level is 1,323?1,318???G/T
Ldn 12:35 GMT December 8, 2004
van Gecko well lets hope those elephants had dont their whoopsy first and it doesnt land on us.
van Gecko 12:28 GMT December 8, 2004
Ldn 11:25.. top heavy elephant bulls are looking to 'SOB' in front of 1.3350/70 before 1.3250.. still flying up here in the 1.22 skies with the $Goose?
Ldn 11:25 GMT December 8, 2004
Break in EUR/USD below 1.3370 is bearish, and signs are that a temporary top is in place. A daily close below 1.3350 will further bolster this view.
HSBC
Haifa ac 08:20 GMT December 8, 2004
Seems like Gecko was only a few days premature.
B.A. BOCA 08:05 GMT December 8, 2004
gold taking a beating...444.95
London. 07:54 GMT December 8, 2004
Traders say overbsold technical signals and increasing verbal intervention from European and Japanese officials are beginning to rattle the market triggering profit taking and reduction of exposure.
Tuesday, December 07, 2004
HK Kevin 14:42 GMT December 7, 2004
Buy USD/CAD at 1.2030 is still not late.
Atl TJ 14:19 GMT December 7, 2004
HK Kevin 14:15 GMT December 7, 2004
If you tell the difference when Goose is being a Leader or just
being the Rebel without the hindsight glasses, you be the King. Goose has been bucking the trend for last 7 days and today may be the 8th. But I am not reading to use the "C" word in the same sentence as Dollar. LOL
HK Kevin 14:15 GMT December 7, 2004
Could the Goose lead the $ bull run?
gold coast martin 10:22 GMT December 7, 2004
van Gecko 10:18 GMT December 7, 2004
LOL...true.....time fixes everything and heals all forex wounds...in time will have new P45.......CHEERS...
van Gecko 10:18 GMT December 7, 2004
gold coast martin.. if this 'American Bye' music keeps up.. we'll need ZORRO's grandfather "Ldn" (vintage 1999/2000 GV) to come back here with his 'Lower the Euro' song.. he called Euro all the way down to .8500 in 2000..
gold coast martin 10:02 GMT December 7, 2004
...Dollar in dire straights......gbp shaken but not stirred...euro in euphoria land..
gold coast martin 09:59 GMT December 7, 2004
John Snow and Al greenspan...the sultans of dollar swing....
Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:54 GMT December 7, 2004
Well I have Gecko several times. How many lives do they have left? LOL
van Gecko 09:49 GMT December 7, 2004
OMIL (/;-> just wait till you see the Grateful Deads come back from their graves..;)
Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:44 GMT December 7, 2004
Gecko those guys must be 80 years old by now. I think they will have a hard time doing the splits in the middle of the stage LOL.
van Gecko 09:39 GMT December 7, 2004
Ty.. this is how they look like & what they do to finance their forex operations..:) the Motley Crue
LA Ty 09:22 GMT December 7, 2004
van Gecko u think the watchdogs are actually buying and selling low volume to keep that resistance?
van Gecko 09:11 GMT December 7, 2004
LA Ty 08:48.. they just keep chewing & absorb all the bids infront of the figure with their mouths and then spit them out while the europhiles are napping.. its a contest to see who has the most spittle to h'iss into the wind..
LA Ty 08:48 GMT December 7, 2004
or how are they protecting 3470 ? by talking at the mounth ? or actually mini intervention?
LA Ty 08:39 GMT December 7, 2004
van Gecko.. how do you know theyre protecting 3470 ?
van Gecko 08:11 GMT December 7, 2004
Ty.. they are already in.. who do you think is guarding 1.3470 since Friday? but i doubt the bulls will give up so easy.. above 1.3350 you can expect a few more push before they'll decide to pack it in and go Christmas shopping at Tiffany.. (or Wal Mart if they have trouble unloading all their cargos up here..)
Tallinn viies 07:57 GMT December 7, 2004
LA Ty 07:34 GMT December 7 - just gut feeling.
right now current year high low difference below historical average.
cant see reasons to intervene here....
Tallinn viies 07:32 GMT December 7, 2004
LA Ty 07:22 GMT - not before 1,45...
LA Ty 07:22 GMT December 7, 2004
are there specific or usual times of the day that central banks usually intervene? i.e. if it the BOJ, would they only intervene during Japan day hours?
Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:29 GMT December 7, 2004
Like wise Gecko I agree it is reaching a climatic point and when it dives it will go down hard. Have a great week.
van Gecko 02:19 GMT December 7, 2004
OMIL.. always good to see your accurate s/r levels.. either way, it looks like we'll see a resolution of this asymmetric triangle soon.. the compressing apex is dictating a climatic 'do or dive' scenario..
the same scenario applies for this latest Euro hourly flag pole from last Friday's spike.. cheers..
Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:57 GMT December 7, 2004
Hello Gecko good to see your comments in the forum once again. I am sorry if I sounded one sided on the eur/jpy pair I should of also presented the support (13700-10 and 3610-20 for now) that must contain this pair to test the said resistance levels and finally reach in the long run the main target. At this point until some of the key and main supports are taken out by the bears on these pairs I will have to remain bullish even on these new levels we are reaching for eur/usd pair. If we go by some of the technical indicators this $ correction is overdue as this unhealthy trend for the eur/usd pair has been breaking new highs. My comments were to support a possible break of the (3500-30) barrier, which is my main target for the eur/usd pair IMHO. GL GT
van Gecko 01:35 GMT December 7, 2004
good evening OMIL.. re eur/jpy asymmetric triangle.. bulls had been calling for a break since March eveytime it gets up here at the 137/138 levels.. imo at this point, its a bit premature to be calling for the 150/160 levels as its needs to sustained weekly closes above 138 just to retest the 141 mult year high again..
with eur/gbp in correction after failing to break over the .7000 levels, any eur/jpy setbacks from there could be a stumbling block for euro to sustain levels above 1.30 even if it overshoots up to the '1.35/1.40 all world target'.. fwiw..
Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:54 GMT December 7, 2004
FWIW eur/jpy has broken the asymmetric bullish triangle formed over the 1 ½ past years and most important has finally closed above it (137.00-10). Next resistance here will be met around the 139.00-10, 140.20-30 and the top for 2003 140.90-141. Main target for this pair in the long run will be around the 153.80-90 area. This is of course technical and does not count on the intervention that everyone is talking about. With this bullish move on this pair this should help the bulls in the eur/usd pair complete the main objective (3500-30) set after this pair broke the bullish triangle several months ago IMHO. GL GT
van Gecko 14:58 GMT December 6, 2004
the elephants are taking a day off to celebrate & mourn after last Friday's capitulating move.. the rest of the of us are too scare to buy or sell.. so euro is struck here in a pip'less range..
may be the newly rejuvenate $cad Goose will lay some fat eggs across euro's path to 1.488888..
Dallas Mauricio 14:31 GMT December 6, 2004
I hate days like today.
Atl TJ 14:03 GMT December 6, 2004
Does anyone know what is so important on EURO 1.3430? Its been stuck on that low for the last 2-3 hours.
saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 12:52 GMT December 6, 2004
Good morning...
hk ab..
What i said is to watch usd/chf if hold above 1.10 or some pips below while Euro hit 1.40888888
That will be for me the STOP for Euro for further gains..and a reason to jump off Euro train..
Right now looks like a Rocket with a stop @ 1.35/36 for a Buy again @ 1.32
Euro its our probl but none want to be a general too i guess..
nk
dc fxq 12:51 GMT December 6, 2004
shanghai bc 12:38 GMT et al:
the FED has NOTHING to do with forex, please get it straight.
Any FX intervention decisions vome from the TSY and SNOW, not GREENSAPAN or the FED.
Mumbai Jay 12:46 GMT December 6, 2004
Shanghai BC 1238 GMT..Thanks vm. I am sure, besides FED many other CBs must be hoping that there won't be a Dollar-asset market crash.
Makassar Alimin 12:44 GMT December 6, 2004
Mumbai Jay 12:16 GMT December 6, 2004
they love to see dollar fall further :) they should be concerned if dollar doesnt fall anymore
shanghai bc 12:38 GMT December 6, 2004
MUMBAY -- Good evening..It is obvious that Fed folks are on all fours praying for weaker Dollar as long as it does not lead to crash of Dollar asset market.."This is our Dollar but it is your bloody problem" seems to be what they have on their mind now..Given their attitude,anyone who sees a stronger Dollar for the foresseable future now must be either blind or deaf..Good trades.
Mumbai Jay 12:16 GMT December 6, 2004
Shanghai BC..What possibility is there of FED getting concerned about the Dollar's fall and if at all there is, when do you think they will? Thanks.
van Gecko 09:15 GMT December 6, 2004
SNB seems to be the one putting the money where their mouth is.. Friday may had been an aberration..
van Gecko 14:49 GMT December 3, 2004
re. 12:38 NFP formulas..
its 'bad NFP'+MIB absorbing any spike=No Fun Party..
just waiting to collect a few more DBB before the blast..
Makassar Alimin 14:10 GMT December 3, 2004
what's holding usd at the moment? thought data were below expectation...any post data analysis? or is it Gecko's MIB in action?
Roumeli anka 12:44 GMT December 3, 2004
LOL... van Gecko. In other words " post coitum onme animal tristis est ".
van Gecko 12:38 GMT December 3, 2004
some NFP combinations for DBB members to crunch;
good NFP+MIB blasts with spike=No Fun Party
bad NFP+MIB absorbing any spike=No Fun Party
MIB blasts+DBB SAR=2xNo Fun Party
therefore,
NFP+MIB=DBB No Fun Party ?
Buy USD/CAD at 1.2030 is still not late.
Atl TJ 14:19 GMT December 7, 2004
HK Kevin 14:15 GMT December 7, 2004
If you tell the difference when Goose is being a Leader or just
being the Rebel without the hindsight glasses, you be the King. Goose has been bucking the trend for last 7 days and today may be the 8th. But I am not reading to use the "C" word in the same sentence as Dollar. LOL
HK Kevin 14:15 GMT December 7, 2004
Could the Goose lead the $ bull run?
gold coast martin 10:22 GMT December 7, 2004
van Gecko 10:18 GMT December 7, 2004
LOL...true.....time fixes everything and heals all forex wounds...in time will have new P45.......CHEERS...
van Gecko 10:18 GMT December 7, 2004
gold coast martin.. if this 'American Bye' music keeps up.. we'll need ZORRO's grandfather "Ldn" (vintage 1999/2000 GV) to come back here with his 'Lower the Euro' song.. he called Euro all the way down to .8500 in 2000..
gold coast martin 10:02 GMT December 7, 2004
...Dollar in dire straights......gbp shaken but not stirred...euro in euphoria land..
gold coast martin 09:59 GMT December 7, 2004
John Snow and Al greenspan...the sultans of dollar swing....
Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:54 GMT December 7, 2004
Well I have Gecko several times. How many lives do they have left? LOL
van Gecko 09:49 GMT December 7, 2004
OMIL (/;-> just wait till you see the Grateful Deads come back from their graves..;)
Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:44 GMT December 7, 2004
Gecko those guys must be 80 years old by now. I think they will have a hard time doing the splits in the middle of the stage LOL.
van Gecko 09:39 GMT December 7, 2004
Ty.. this is how they look like & what they do to finance their forex operations..:) the Motley Crue
LA Ty 09:22 GMT December 7, 2004
van Gecko u think the watchdogs are actually buying and selling low volume to keep that resistance?
van Gecko 09:11 GMT December 7, 2004
LA Ty 08:48.. they just keep chewing & absorb all the bids infront of the figure with their mouths and then spit them out while the europhiles are napping.. its a contest to see who has the most spittle to h'iss into the wind..
LA Ty 08:48 GMT December 7, 2004
or how are they protecting 3470 ? by talking at the mounth ? or actually mini intervention?
LA Ty 08:39 GMT December 7, 2004
van Gecko.. how do you know theyre protecting 3470 ?
van Gecko 08:11 GMT December 7, 2004
Ty.. they are already in.. who do you think is guarding 1.3470 since Friday? but i doubt the bulls will give up so easy.. above 1.3350 you can expect a few more push before they'll decide to pack it in and go Christmas shopping at Tiffany.. (or Wal Mart if they have trouble unloading all their cargos up here..)
Tallinn viies 07:57 GMT December 7, 2004
LA Ty 07:34 GMT December 7 - just gut feeling.
right now current year high low difference below historical average.
cant see reasons to intervene here....
Tallinn viies 07:32 GMT December 7, 2004
LA Ty 07:22 GMT - not before 1,45...
LA Ty 07:22 GMT December 7, 2004
are there specific or usual times of the day that central banks usually intervene? i.e. if it the BOJ, would they only intervene during Japan day hours?
Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:29 GMT December 7, 2004
Like wise Gecko I agree it is reaching a climatic point and when it dives it will go down hard. Have a great week.
van Gecko 02:19 GMT December 7, 2004
OMIL.. always good to see your accurate s/r levels.. either way, it looks like we'll see a resolution of this asymmetric triangle soon.. the compressing apex is dictating a climatic 'do or dive' scenario..
the same scenario applies for this latest Euro hourly flag pole from last Friday's spike.. cheers..
Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:57 GMT December 7, 2004
Hello Gecko good to see your comments in the forum once again. I am sorry if I sounded one sided on the eur/jpy pair I should of also presented the support (13700-10 and 3610-20 for now) that must contain this pair to test the said resistance levels and finally reach in the long run the main target. At this point until some of the key and main supports are taken out by the bears on these pairs I will have to remain bullish even on these new levels we are reaching for eur/usd pair. If we go by some of the technical indicators this $ correction is overdue as this unhealthy trend for the eur/usd pair has been breaking new highs. My comments were to support a possible break of the (3500-30) barrier, which is my main target for the eur/usd pair IMHO. GL GT
van Gecko 01:35 GMT December 7, 2004
good evening OMIL.. re eur/jpy asymmetric triangle.. bulls had been calling for a break since March eveytime it gets up here at the 137/138 levels.. imo at this point, its a bit premature to be calling for the 150/160 levels as its needs to sustained weekly closes above 138 just to retest the 141 mult year high again..
with eur/gbp in correction after failing to break over the .7000 levels, any eur/jpy setbacks from there could be a stumbling block for euro to sustain levels above 1.30 even if it overshoots up to the '1.35/1.40 all world target'.. fwiw..
Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:54 GMT December 7, 2004
FWIW eur/jpy has broken the asymmetric bullish triangle formed over the 1 ½ past years and most important has finally closed above it (137.00-10). Next resistance here will be met around the 139.00-10, 140.20-30 and the top for 2003 140.90-141. Main target for this pair in the long run will be around the 153.80-90 area. This is of course technical and does not count on the intervention that everyone is talking about. With this bullish move on this pair this should help the bulls in the eur/usd pair complete the main objective (3500-30) set after this pair broke the bullish triangle several months ago IMHO. GL GT
van Gecko 14:58 GMT December 6, 2004
the elephants are taking a day off to celebrate & mourn after last Friday's capitulating move.. the rest of the of us are too scare to buy or sell.. so euro is struck here in a pip'less range..
may be the newly rejuvenate $cad Goose will lay some fat eggs across euro's path to 1.488888..
Dallas Mauricio 14:31 GMT December 6, 2004
I hate days like today.
Atl TJ 14:03 GMT December 6, 2004
Does anyone know what is so important on EURO 1.3430? Its been stuck on that low for the last 2-3 hours.
saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 12:52 GMT December 6, 2004
Good morning...
hk ab..
What i said is to watch usd/chf if hold above 1.10 or some pips below while Euro hit 1.40888888
That will be for me the STOP for Euro for further gains..and a reason to jump off Euro train..
Right now looks like a Rocket with a stop @ 1.35/36 for a Buy again @ 1.32
Euro its our probl but none want to be a general too i guess..
nk
dc fxq 12:51 GMT December 6, 2004
shanghai bc 12:38 GMT et al:
the FED has NOTHING to do with forex, please get it straight.
Any FX intervention decisions vome from the TSY and SNOW, not GREENSAPAN or the FED.
Mumbai Jay 12:46 GMT December 6, 2004
Shanghai BC 1238 GMT..Thanks vm. I am sure, besides FED many other CBs must be hoping that there won't be a Dollar-asset market crash.
Makassar Alimin 12:44 GMT December 6, 2004
Mumbai Jay 12:16 GMT December 6, 2004
they love to see dollar fall further :) they should be concerned if dollar doesnt fall anymore
shanghai bc 12:38 GMT December 6, 2004
MUMBAY -- Good evening..It is obvious that Fed folks are on all fours praying for weaker Dollar as long as it does not lead to crash of Dollar asset market.."This is our Dollar but it is your bloody problem" seems to be what they have on their mind now..Given their attitude,anyone who sees a stronger Dollar for the foresseable future now must be either blind or deaf..Good trades.
Mumbai Jay 12:16 GMT December 6, 2004
Shanghai BC..What possibility is there of FED getting concerned about the Dollar's fall and if at all there is, when do you think they will? Thanks.
van Gecko 09:15 GMT December 6, 2004
SNB seems to be the one putting the money where their mouth is.. Friday may had been an aberration..
van Gecko 14:49 GMT December 3, 2004
re. 12:38 NFP formulas..
its 'bad NFP'+MIB absorbing any spike=No Fun Party..
just waiting to collect a few more DBB before the blast..
Makassar Alimin 14:10 GMT December 3, 2004
what's holding usd at the moment? thought data were below expectation...any post data analysis? or is it Gecko's MIB in action?
Roumeli anka 12:44 GMT December 3, 2004
LOL... van Gecko. In other words " post coitum onme animal tristis est ".
van Gecko 12:38 GMT December 3, 2004
some NFP combinations for DBB members to crunch;
good NFP+MIB blasts with spike=No Fun Party
bad NFP+MIB absorbing any spike=No Fun Party
MIB blasts+DBB SAR=2xNo Fun Party
therefore,
NFP+MIB=DBB No Fun Party ?
Wednesday, December 01, 2004
van Gecko 02:08 GMT December 2, 2004
"To achieve an advance that cannot be hampered, rush to his weak points.
To achieve a withdrawal that cannot be pursued, depart with superior speed."
Sun Tzu: The Art Of War
timing & well planned tactical strategies are important elements in any successful warfare.. one would think after running up the Euro 13 big figures those savvy Dollar Bear Brigade might start to think about lock in their profits here then to continue to press the inflection limits & the will of those Men in Black for another 7 figures up to 1.40..
it would certainly make sense & much easier for the Brigade with their collective power to move the Euro back down 10 figures from here & double their profits much faster..
valdez amigo.. cheers..
quito_ecuador_valdez 01:51 GMT December 2, 2004
I think, Gecko, people are naive to the fact that the world's economy is rather tightly controlled albeit from the shadows. FX is just one of the factors in the control room but FX is most definitely not just left to the whim of the market..it is on a very very top level game board.
London. 01:31 GMT December 2, 2004
van Gecko incredible but true
quito_ecuador_valdez 01:26 GMT December 2, 2004
Van Gecko// When I say what you posted below I get hades from surface feeders who can't find their afterburner with both hands. Glad you persist in disseminating the truth, maybe they'll listen to you. As to your inference to elephant players..they're as big or bigger than the CBs. Agreed, we only gather up the crumbs.
van Gecko 01:19 GMT December 2, 2004
Contrary to popular misconception that "the forex market is too big to be manipulated".. all market moves are initiated & sustained by elephant syndicates..This is a game play by elephants where the market ranges, break-outs, & trends reflect the strength & weakness of the opposing camps at any given time.. Central Banks act as the supervisor & guardian angels of this game.. and whenever the game gets out of hand with one side getting too aggressive on certain boundaries, they step in to restore order..
while the rest of us who are in the dark as to the game plan & latest intentions of these players can only try following the trails of the elephants or try to decipher & play from the various inflection levels.. the sad truth is that 95% of the market participants usually get trampled by either being blinded to the move or jumping on-board at/near the end..
Oakland daimyo 15:45 & gold coast martin 16:29 got it right..
Miami OMIL (/;-> 23:20 GMT December 1, 2004
The eur/usd pair is creating a bullish ascending triangle in the 4hr chart and looks ready to explode again to the top side if a break and close of the 3350 resistance were to happen that would expose the 3400 resistance to the bulls with the main objective still in the 3500-30 area. Traders still seem to be jockeying for position for the NFP (AKA bloody Friday if that meant something anymore). Here are the latest numbers for the eur/usd pair.
van Gecko 22:28 GMT December 1, 2004
"08:13 GMT October 15, 2004
"This is the end, Beautiful friend
This is the end, My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end.."
getting close again friends...
enjoy "American bye" while it last..
melbourne farmacia 22:27 GMT December 1, 2004
KL - morning... nice gbp run overnight... I still don't have a sell signal as yet. Maybe 1.9430 ish first. GT
Geneva 20:03 GMT December 1, 2004
As longer it will take, as harder it will fall.
Getting closer and closer to the end, and the carpet is full of bull euros. the same peoples that sold the euro at 0.85 buying over 1.30. I am glad to see that next year will be the year of the DOLLAR. Happy trading all.
Athens 17:16 GMT December 1, 2004
CME, yes, I haven't changed my view. Besides, my "buy $/CHF on dips" morning call hasn't let me down.
Chicago CME 17:11 GMT December 1, 2004
Athens: even with cable up here does your gut still tell you that currencies may break this week?
gold coast martin 16:41 GMT December 1, 2004
GENEVA FHR 16:37 GMT December 1, 2004
I dont blame them at all.,...i just take their money ...win win for me.....good trades and please post more often....your posts are highly valued...g/t
gold coast martin 16:38 GMT December 1, 2004
The rest of this little club are a prominent branch....i dont think i would be parking my retirement fund with any of these guys.....still they pay plenty for forex advice!!!!,,,lol
GENEVA FHR 16:37 GMT December 1, 2004
martin the forex market is to big to be manupilated the way you describe nothing to do with the oil market.there too many participants and dont blame hedge funds they provide huge liquidity and you would not have the spread you have these days.In the old days when banks the main liquidity provider the usual spreads where 10 pips and when real moves where coming 50to100pips where normal.
Helsinki iw 16:35 GMT December 1, 2004
I´ll take your word martin, I don´t know better. But investors do get scary these days about manager style drift, so it doesn´t necessarily pay in the longer run.
gold coast martin 16:29 GMT December 1, 2004
When you have no performance in your other ventures and you are looking to square your books, what is the easiest and quickest way to do it....form a joint venture with other funders and place a sure bet on the forex and futures market....i posted this info about joint venture of funds into oil a while ago on GVI....i wouldnt post if i didnt know...made good money out of last oil venture.....g/t
gold coast martin 16:12 GMT December 1, 2004
There are a number of funds that will exit between 16-19 of december due to their trading perimeter constraints....large volumes....these were funds that were involved in oil a while ago and were first ones to initially exit causing 4 big figure drop .....one of them will be highbridge capital....i dont mind naming them...they had a good run at the expense of smaller traders...manipulating the market long enough....g/t
Oakland daimyo 15:45 GMT December 1, 2004
CTA's and Hedge Funds had a tough year. They're not in any hurry to stop current trends before the new year. They're trying to ride this thing as long as possible. Many need to makeup the losses they incurred during slow, choppy summer months. "The trend is your friend" takes on a new meaning for these guys/gals. Market shrugging off USD positive news is a major sell signal as mkt participants are viewing current economic data as merely a nuisance. Also, CB's are mostly talk at this point. IMHO
Athens 11:33 GMT December 1, 2004
I haven't changed my view on what I said here last night. Cable had seriously lagged and is doing now what it should have done earlier. I have a projected resistance levels 1.9235 which is still holding but at risk at the moment and stronger 1.9305-10. The Pound also picked up steam after triggering model breaks on my techs on all its crosses yesteday. Keep in mind that GBP/$ is the only pair which rarely changes direction with round tops/bottoms formations. Most often it forms ver sharp V-shaped angled turns. Personally I am npt trading cable at present. USD bears (in the other majors) are also using the cable latest strong rally to keep the USD bears defensive across the board. The action is delaying the turn but it can't stop it as far as I can tell. It's a time game now and nothing else in my opinion. Keep selling AUD/$ spikes and buying $/CHF and $/CAD dips. Good luck.
Oakland daimyo 11:30 GMT December 1, 2004
van Gecko 10:47 GMT December 1, 2004
melbourne farmacia 11:19 GMT December 1, 2004
Learning to keep my big mouth shut since I trade much better when I don't post, however I thought the info might be of use to someone other than me. If you want to discuss markets, please email Jay for my email address. I will not be in this forum much. GT
van Gecko 10:47 GMT December 1, 2004
London 09:55.. its just normal market psychology at play.. you'll get the usual share of later comers to bottom/top feed the markets at/near any turning points ..
Oakland daimyo.. good luck with your work & studies.. cheers
Oakland daimyo 10:33 GMT December 1, 2004
Hello everyone. Have not been posting as FX and grad school have been keeping me very busy. Respect due to farmacia and Van Gecko. I've been following clever accumulation on the part of the "composite operator".
It looks like the elephants have changed watering holes with Cable being the new favorite. Supply/ demand relationship favors buyers. Enough cause has been built up to effect the next upside 25 x 3 P&F target of 1.9350. Of course, nothing moves in a straight line so pullbacks are possible. However, I suggest maintaining buy on dip strats. 1.9141 this years high will become next years low IMHO GT to all
Ldn 10:15 GMT December 1, 2004
Disappointing data from both Japan and euro zone help to encourage more profit-taking in both EUR and JPY against USD. reuters
London 09:55 GMT December 1, 2004
what's going on with the $/can????
van Gecko 09:30 GMT December 1, 2004
viktor 09:15 good day.. thanks.. some p/t are taking place here.. looks like some front runners wants to beat the rush.. look at gbp/chf fly!
gl..
prague viktor 09:15 GMT December 1, 2004
van Gecko 14:55 GMT November 30, 2004...
G.day mate!..thanks for ur post..we are livinig now with Mr green syndrom..so we must wait...for another few days I think mate the 1,33-1,34 its the end for this move..and Im looking too like u for a sharp pull back..G/T G/L
London. 09:14 GMT December 1, 2004
van Gecko cheers
van Gecko 09:08 GMT December 1, 2004
London.. please watch Gold's reaction @ 445 for clue.. that said theres a good cross & inter-market bias setting up for the Conti twins..
farmacia.. thanks
melbourne farmacia 09:02 GMT December 1, 2004
van Gecko - 1.9194 projected daily high.
1.9234 overshoot selling spike if seen IMO
Kamensk Andy 08:57 GMT December 1, 2004
melbourne farmacia 08:39 - Take my congratulations! Was not so lucky in this run...What do you expect till the end of year now?
van Gecko 08:54 GMT December 1, 2004
good afternoon sp..
melbourne farmacia 08:39 well done.. 1.92 sustainable?
London. 08:50 GMT December 1, 2004
Van Gecko your also see that ?
London. 08:49 GMT December 1, 2004
Chris Locke Oyster Catcher Management says we could be seeing a multi year top around here. CNBC
melbourne farmacia 08:39 GMT December 1, 2004
KL - covered all for 13 figures....
van Gecko 08:27 GMT December 1, 2004
the little dollar setting up for a 2 figure blast to start the month..
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
"To achieve an advance that cannot be hampered, rush to his weak points.
To achieve a withdrawal that cannot be pursued, depart with superior speed."
Sun Tzu: The Art Of War
timing & well planned tactical strategies are important elements in any successful warfare.. one would think after running up the Euro 13 big figures those savvy Dollar Bear Brigade might start to think about lock in their profits here then to continue to press the inflection limits & the will of those Men in Black for another 7 figures up to 1.40..
it would certainly make sense & much easier for the Brigade with their collective power to move the Euro back down 10 figures from here & double their profits much faster..
valdez amigo.. cheers..
quito_ecuador_valdez 01:51 GMT December 2, 2004
I think, Gecko, people are naive to the fact that the world's economy is rather tightly controlled albeit from the shadows. FX is just one of the factors in the control room but FX is most definitely not just left to the whim of the market..it is on a very very top level game board.
London. 01:31 GMT December 2, 2004
van Gecko incredible but true
quito_ecuador_valdez 01:26 GMT December 2, 2004
Van Gecko// When I say what you posted below I get hades from surface feeders who can't find their afterburner with both hands. Glad you persist in disseminating the truth, maybe they'll listen to you. As to your inference to elephant players..they're as big or bigger than the CBs. Agreed, we only gather up the crumbs.
van Gecko 01:19 GMT December 2, 2004
Contrary to popular misconception that "the forex market is too big to be manipulated".. all market moves are initiated & sustained by elephant syndicates..This is a game play by elephants where the market ranges, break-outs, & trends reflect the strength & weakness of the opposing camps at any given time.. Central Banks act as the supervisor & guardian angels of this game.. and whenever the game gets out of hand with one side getting too aggressive on certain boundaries, they step in to restore order..
while the rest of us who are in the dark as to the game plan & latest intentions of these players can only try following the trails of the elephants or try to decipher & play from the various inflection levels.. the sad truth is that 95% of the market participants usually get trampled by either being blinded to the move or jumping on-board at/near the end..
Oakland daimyo 15:45 & gold coast martin 16:29 got it right..
Miami OMIL (/;-> 23:20 GMT December 1, 2004
The eur/usd pair is creating a bullish ascending triangle in the 4hr chart and looks ready to explode again to the top side if a break and close of the 3350 resistance were to happen that would expose the 3400 resistance to the bulls with the main objective still in the 3500-30 area. Traders still seem to be jockeying for position for the NFP (AKA bloody Friday if that meant something anymore). Here are the latest numbers for the eur/usd pair.
van Gecko 22:28 GMT December 1, 2004
"08:13 GMT October 15, 2004
"This is the end, Beautiful friend
This is the end, My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end.."
getting close again friends...
enjoy "American bye" while it last..
melbourne farmacia 22:27 GMT December 1, 2004
KL - morning... nice gbp run overnight... I still don't have a sell signal as yet. Maybe 1.9430 ish first. GT
Geneva 20:03 GMT December 1, 2004
As longer it will take, as harder it will fall.
Getting closer and closer to the end, and the carpet is full of bull euros. the same peoples that sold the euro at 0.85 buying over 1.30. I am glad to see that next year will be the year of the DOLLAR. Happy trading all.
Athens 17:16 GMT December 1, 2004
CME, yes, I haven't changed my view. Besides, my "buy $/CHF on dips" morning call hasn't let me down.
Chicago CME 17:11 GMT December 1, 2004
Athens: even with cable up here does your gut still tell you that currencies may break this week?
gold coast martin 16:41 GMT December 1, 2004
GENEVA FHR 16:37 GMT December 1, 2004
I dont blame them at all.,...i just take their money ...win win for me.....good trades and please post more often....your posts are highly valued...g/t
gold coast martin 16:38 GMT December 1, 2004
The rest of this little club are a prominent branch....i dont think i would be parking my retirement fund with any of these guys.....still they pay plenty for forex advice!!!!,,,lol
GENEVA FHR 16:37 GMT December 1, 2004
martin the forex market is to big to be manupilated the way you describe nothing to do with the oil market.there too many participants and dont blame hedge funds they provide huge liquidity and you would not have the spread you have these days.In the old days when banks the main liquidity provider the usual spreads where 10 pips and when real moves where coming 50to100pips where normal.
Helsinki iw 16:35 GMT December 1, 2004
I´ll take your word martin, I don´t know better. But investors do get scary these days about manager style drift, so it doesn´t necessarily pay in the longer run.
gold coast martin 16:29 GMT December 1, 2004
When you have no performance in your other ventures and you are looking to square your books, what is the easiest and quickest way to do it....form a joint venture with other funders and place a sure bet on the forex and futures market....i posted this info about joint venture of funds into oil a while ago on GVI....i wouldnt post if i didnt know...made good money out of last oil venture.....g/t
gold coast martin 16:12 GMT December 1, 2004
There are a number of funds that will exit between 16-19 of december due to their trading perimeter constraints....large volumes....these were funds that were involved in oil a while ago and were first ones to initially exit causing 4 big figure drop .....one of them will be highbridge capital....i dont mind naming them...they had a good run at the expense of smaller traders...manipulating the market long enough....g/t
Oakland daimyo 15:45 GMT December 1, 2004
CTA's and Hedge Funds had a tough year. They're not in any hurry to stop current trends before the new year. They're trying to ride this thing as long as possible. Many need to makeup the losses they incurred during slow, choppy summer months. "The trend is your friend" takes on a new meaning for these guys/gals. Market shrugging off USD positive news is a major sell signal as mkt participants are viewing current economic data as merely a nuisance. Also, CB's are mostly talk at this point. IMHO
Athens 11:33 GMT December 1, 2004
I haven't changed my view on what I said here last night. Cable had seriously lagged and is doing now what it should have done earlier. I have a projected resistance levels 1.9235 which is still holding but at risk at the moment and stronger 1.9305-10. The Pound also picked up steam after triggering model breaks on my techs on all its crosses yesteday. Keep in mind that GBP/$ is the only pair which rarely changes direction with round tops/bottoms formations. Most often it forms ver sharp V-shaped angled turns. Personally I am npt trading cable at present. USD bears (in the other majors) are also using the cable latest strong rally to keep the USD bears defensive across the board. The action is delaying the turn but it can't stop it as far as I can tell. It's a time game now and nothing else in my opinion. Keep selling AUD/$ spikes and buying $/CHF and $/CAD dips. Good luck.
Oakland daimyo 11:30 GMT December 1, 2004
van Gecko 10:47 GMT December 1, 2004
melbourne farmacia 11:19 GMT December 1, 2004
Learning to keep my big mouth shut since I trade much better when I don't post, however I thought the info might be of use to someone other than me. If you want to discuss markets, please email Jay for my email address. I will not be in this forum much. GT
van Gecko 10:47 GMT December 1, 2004
London 09:55.. its just normal market psychology at play.. you'll get the usual share of later comers to bottom/top feed the markets at/near any turning points ..
Oakland daimyo.. good luck with your work & studies.. cheers
Oakland daimyo 10:33 GMT December 1, 2004
Hello everyone. Have not been posting as FX and grad school have been keeping me very busy. Respect due to farmacia and Van Gecko. I've been following clever accumulation on the part of the "composite operator".
It looks like the elephants have changed watering holes with Cable being the new favorite. Supply/ demand relationship favors buyers. Enough cause has been built up to effect the next upside 25 x 3 P&F target of 1.9350. Of course, nothing moves in a straight line so pullbacks are possible. However, I suggest maintaining buy on dip strats. 1.9141 this years high will become next years low IMHO GT to all
Ldn 10:15 GMT December 1, 2004
Disappointing data from both Japan and euro zone help to encourage more profit-taking in both EUR and JPY against USD. reuters
London 09:55 GMT December 1, 2004
what's going on with the $/can????
van Gecko 09:30 GMT December 1, 2004
viktor 09:15 good day.. thanks.. some p/t are taking place here.. looks like some front runners wants to beat the rush.. look at gbp/chf fly!
gl..
prague viktor 09:15 GMT December 1, 2004
van Gecko 14:55 GMT November 30, 2004...
G.day mate!..thanks for ur post..we are livinig now with Mr green syndrom..so we must wait...for another few days I think mate the 1,33-1,34 its the end for this move..and Im looking too like u for a sharp pull back..G/T G/L
London. 09:14 GMT December 1, 2004
van Gecko cheers
van Gecko 09:08 GMT December 1, 2004
London.. please watch Gold's reaction @ 445 for clue.. that said theres a good cross & inter-market bias setting up for the Conti twins..
farmacia.. thanks
melbourne farmacia 09:02 GMT December 1, 2004
van Gecko - 1.9194 projected daily high.
1.9234 overshoot selling spike if seen IMO
Kamensk Andy 08:57 GMT December 1, 2004
melbourne farmacia 08:39 - Take my congratulations! Was not so lucky in this run...What do you expect till the end of year now?
van Gecko 08:54 GMT December 1, 2004
good afternoon sp..
melbourne farmacia 08:39 well done.. 1.92 sustainable?
London. 08:50 GMT December 1, 2004
Van Gecko your also see that ?
London. 08:49 GMT December 1, 2004
Chris Locke Oyster Catcher Management says we could be seeing a multi year top around here. CNBC
melbourne farmacia 08:39 GMT December 1, 2004
KL - covered all for 13 figures....
van Gecko 08:27 GMT December 1, 2004
the little dollar setting up for a 2 figure blast to start the month..
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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