Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Friday, January 21, 2005
prague viktor 08:42 GMT January 21, 2005
van Gecko...G.day mate..very lovely elephant hopefully he will stay in this position till the 1,25..14moons..is that meaning spring 2006G/T
van Gecko 08:18 GMT January 21, 2005
Having said good bye to .7050, the next intermediate attractor along EUR/GBP's route to m/t bliss is now down at .6800.. where Euro is expected to do some Blip & Dip line dancing with its cousin Gbp.. a sustained break below the line could trigger another multi-month slide down to the .6500 major attractor.. a potential 5 figure+carry payout for the 'SS Brigade' (Sell & Snoozers)..
Shell shocked Euro bulls can expect some near term relief, but with Gold & both guide dogs (Euro vs Gbp & Jpy) exhibiting good bias for Merry Go South m/t slides, Euro's all world dream flight to 1.4 may have to wait for another 14 moons..
heres a baby elephant in training..
:))
EUR/GBP @.6950, Euro @1.3050
Ldn 03:36 GMT January 21, 2005
Toronto Alex the benchmarks to watchout for :
Shanghai BC
van Gecko
Zorro
Athens
Geneva
van Gecko...G.day mate..very lovely elephant hopefully he will stay in this position till the 1,25..14moons..is that meaning spring 2006G/T
van Gecko 08:18 GMT January 21, 2005
Having said good bye to .7050, the next intermediate attractor along EUR/GBP's route to m/t bliss is now down at .6800.. where Euro is expected to do some Blip & Dip line dancing with its cousin Gbp.. a sustained break below the line could trigger another multi-month slide down to the .6500 major attractor.. a potential 5 figure+carry payout for the 'SS Brigade' (Sell & Snoozers)..
Shell shocked Euro bulls can expect some near term relief, but with Gold & both guide dogs (Euro vs Gbp & Jpy) exhibiting good bias for Merry Go South m/t slides, Euro's all world dream flight to 1.4 may have to wait for another 14 moons..
heres a baby elephant in training..
:))
EUR/GBP @.6950, Euro @1.3050
Ldn 03:36 GMT January 21, 2005
Toronto Alex the benchmarks to watchout for :
Shanghai BC
van Gecko
Zorro
Athens
Geneva
Wednesday, January 19, 2005
van Gecko 14:23 GMT January 19, 2005
River Falls_USA_ PB 13:48.. its just a part of the on going risk tranfer between bulls & bears..
after giving back 2 months of gains in 2 weeks, its will be a welcome repreive for the bulls should euro consolidate between 1.3350/1.2950 near term before the next m/t leg down to 1.25..
gl..
River Falls_USA_ PB 13:48 GMT January 19, 2005
van Gecko 13:18///you think maybe more than dead cat when all U.S. news is flat to positive and the $ still getting whacked. tech on futures charts are disparate - where is your2-3 day resisance on E/$? tia gt
van Gecko 13:18 GMT January 19, 2005
market flow since the start of the year had been consistent & dollar positive with the dollar up nearly 400 basis points so far.. intraday pip noise ampitudes for this period in question are no different from any other market periods in the past.. dead cat bounces to daily & weekly channels are part of fx life and must be accepted in any m/t moves.. but then again, some of us will always get excited by any bounce.. fwiw..
gold coast martin 11:10 GMT January 19, 2005
STUBBS.....when cable breaches 18884 level,,,,,,it will see 18977.........but this market IS SO FULL of stops and start which will persist for the rest of the 1stQ...SO A MEDIUM TERM SCENARIO BEYOND 7 days on the cable is impossible to form with confidence,,,,,,,we are just as liable to see cable to 18588 levels in 2 days,,so that is the reason,,too much liquidity or lack of it,,,flows are not steady....very static producing swings in either direction,,,,,hope you positioned welll;;;;;g/t
River Falls_USA_ PB 13:48.. its just a part of the on going risk tranfer between bulls & bears..
after giving back 2 months of gains in 2 weeks, its will be a welcome repreive for the bulls should euro consolidate between 1.3350/1.2950 near term before the next m/t leg down to 1.25..
gl..
River Falls_USA_ PB 13:48 GMT January 19, 2005
van Gecko 13:18///you think maybe more than dead cat when all U.S. news is flat to positive and the $ still getting whacked. tech on futures charts are disparate - where is your2-3 day resisance on E/$? tia gt
van Gecko 13:18 GMT January 19, 2005
market flow since the start of the year had been consistent & dollar positive with the dollar up nearly 400 basis points so far.. intraday pip noise ampitudes for this period in question are no different from any other market periods in the past.. dead cat bounces to daily & weekly channels are part of fx life and must be accepted in any m/t moves.. but then again, some of us will always get excited by any bounce.. fwiw..
gold coast martin 11:10 GMT January 19, 2005
STUBBS.....when cable breaches 18884 level,,,,,,it will see 18977.........but this market IS SO FULL of stops and start which will persist for the rest of the 1stQ...SO A MEDIUM TERM SCENARIO BEYOND 7 days on the cable is impossible to form with confidence,,,,,,,we are just as liable to see cable to 18588 levels in 2 days,,so that is the reason,,too much liquidity or lack of it,,,flows are not steady....very static producing swings in either direction,,,,,hope you positioned welll;;;;;g/t
Friday, January 14, 2005
EU ZORRO 17:41 GMT January 14, 2005
Spotforex NY 17:34...
...it's better later than never....
..hat's off for who "saw" this some days ago...!!!!
Spotforex NY 17:37 GMT January 14, 2005
EU Zorro has been a euro cross bull for 3 1/2 years.....A big stmt from this poster.
EU ZORRO 17:32 GMT January 14, 2005
Hi all....!!!!
....Cancel Zorro Zones in all EUROS crosses....
...Seems we are changing directions for long term....
....Will update my tragets next week...!!!!
have a nice weekend all
Tallinn viies 09:26 GMT January 14, 2005
at 1,3105 sold it out again :)
fine fine fight I must!
blood on streets?
van Gecko 09:21 GMT January 14, 2005
with 1.31 capping the bulls.. a break below 1.3050 is another 100 pip flush & dive down to 1.2950.. well within euro's weekly ATR..
Syd 08:31 GMT January 14, 2005
USD blasting off!
van Gecko 08:19 GMT January 14, 2005
Singapore FH & HK BigBrother.. it doesn't matter if you two belong to the 99% or 1%.. as after all is said & done, both of you are winners since you two can claim to be proud participants in one of those rare moments in fx history.. so sit back, relax, & enjoy history making in real time.. :))
"eur/usd & usd/chf now converging from multi-year diametrically opposite extreme levels.. sometime in the near future, the twins will meet at/near 1.25 then say good bye to each other for a long long time.." ie.
converging to 1.25
eur/usd 1.36->1.32->1.30-> * 1.25 <-1.19<-1.17<-1.13 usd/chf
diverging from 1.25
usd/chf 1.36<-1.32<-1.30<- * 1.25 ->1.19->1.17->1.13 eur/usd
Cheerios..
Singapore FH 07:11 GMT January 14, 2005
Very true big brother, arrogant enough not to understand probabillity. Or maybe just plain masochistic? ah ah ah Oh well, best of luck to all in any case
HK BigBrother 07:06 GMT January 14, 2005
As you can see, some are arrogant enough, yes.
Singapore FH 07:02 GMT January 14, 2005
Sure bigbrother. i guess we're all arrogant enough to think we belong to the one percent then? *sarcasm*
HK BigBrother 06:57 GMT January 14, 2005
Take it as the truth blindly
Singapore FH 06:33 GMT January 14, 2005
Where do people get those 99% rates remains a mystery...
LA fxnew 06:23 GMT January 14, 2005
fx is a bit like gambling .. thats why 99% of ppl are losing money
Sydney 06:11 GMT January 14, 2005
Tallin viies, as van Gecko said this is fx blood transfusion at its best.
Tallinn viies 05:57 GMT January 14, 2005
good morning world! :)
dont you smell blood? fear_? money?
yes I do,
we are going to see 1,3025/30 again today. nothing gonna stop us now :)
shanghai bc 05:14 GMT January 14, 2005
ANDY 04:15 -- Good afternoon..Dollar is not in a runaway market in both ways..I am still subscribing to Eur/Usd 1.3000--1.3500 range for the months.. Buying anything below 1.3200 may still be a good bet for the month..Good trades.
Syd 02:21 GMT January 14, 2005
toronto js writing was on the wall for euro since didnt rally on bad deficit numbers - and Gecko prediction
toronto js 02:17 GMT January 14, 2005
whats with eurusd? dropping like censored!!! is it ever gonna come back??
Spotforex NY 17:34...
...it's better later than never....
..hat's off for who "saw" this some days ago...!!!!
Spotforex NY 17:37 GMT January 14, 2005
EU Zorro has been a euro cross bull for 3 1/2 years.....A big stmt from this poster.
EU ZORRO 17:32 GMT January 14, 2005
Hi all....!!!!
....Cancel Zorro Zones in all EUROS crosses....
...Seems we are changing directions for long term....
....Will update my tragets next week...!!!!
have a nice weekend all
Tallinn viies 09:26 GMT January 14, 2005
at 1,3105 sold it out again :)
fine fine fight I must!
blood on streets?
van Gecko 09:21 GMT January 14, 2005
with 1.31 capping the bulls.. a break below 1.3050 is another 100 pip flush & dive down to 1.2950.. well within euro's weekly ATR..
Syd 08:31 GMT January 14, 2005
USD blasting off!
van Gecko 08:19 GMT January 14, 2005
Singapore FH & HK BigBrother.. it doesn't matter if you two belong to the 99% or 1%.. as after all is said & done, both of you are winners since you two can claim to be proud participants in one of those rare moments in fx history.. so sit back, relax, & enjoy history making in real time.. :))
"eur/usd & usd/chf now converging from multi-year diametrically opposite extreme levels.. sometime in the near future, the twins will meet at/near 1.25 then say good bye to each other for a long long time.." ie.
converging to 1.25
eur/usd 1.36->1.32->1.30-> * 1.25 <-1.19<-1.17<-1.13 usd/chf
diverging from 1.25
usd/chf 1.36<-1.32<-1.30<- * 1.25 ->1.19->1.17->1.13 eur/usd
Cheerios..
Singapore FH 07:11 GMT January 14, 2005
Very true big brother, arrogant enough not to understand probabillity. Or maybe just plain masochistic? ah ah ah Oh well, best of luck to all in any case
HK BigBrother 07:06 GMT January 14, 2005
As you can see, some are arrogant enough, yes.
Singapore FH 07:02 GMT January 14, 2005
Sure bigbrother. i guess we're all arrogant enough to think we belong to the one percent then? *sarcasm*
HK BigBrother 06:57 GMT January 14, 2005
Take it as the truth blindly
Singapore FH 06:33 GMT January 14, 2005
Where do people get those 99% rates remains a mystery...
LA fxnew 06:23 GMT January 14, 2005
fx is a bit like gambling .. thats why 99% of ppl are losing money
Sydney 06:11 GMT January 14, 2005
Tallin viies, as van Gecko said this is fx blood transfusion at its best.
Tallinn viies 05:57 GMT January 14, 2005
good morning world! :)
dont you smell blood? fear_? money?
yes I do,
we are going to see 1,3025/30 again today. nothing gonna stop us now :)
shanghai bc 05:14 GMT January 14, 2005
ANDY 04:15 -- Good afternoon..Dollar is not in a runaway market in both ways..I am still subscribing to Eur/Usd 1.3000--1.3500 range for the months.. Buying anything below 1.3200 may still be a good bet for the month..Good trades.
Syd 02:21 GMT January 14, 2005
toronto js writing was on the wall for euro since didnt rally on bad deficit numbers - and Gecko prediction
toronto js 02:17 GMT January 14, 2005
whats with eurusd? dropping like censored!!! is it ever gonna come back??
Thursday, January 13, 2005
van Gecko 09:28 GMT January 13, 2005
Haifa ac 08:06.. the scenario is indeed looking bleak for the Euro/Jpy bulls this time around with seasonal factors biased to the downside for another month or two..
a monthly close below 135 will be an Outside Reversal Month after being rejected up at the multi-year high with vely bearish Long & Medium Term implications.. below 132 will expose Euro bulls for more risks down to the 1.26/25 3 year range lows.. a break of which could trigger a multi-year decline back to the 90's.. a repeat of the 1998/2000 3 year bear run..
Cheerios..
Haifa ac 08:06 GMT January 13, 2005
EURJPY is sitting on a 4 year uptrendline (Monthly). We break this--we get a heck of a correction!
Haifa ac 08:06.. the scenario is indeed looking bleak for the Euro/Jpy bulls this time around with seasonal factors biased to the downside for another month or two..
a monthly close below 135 will be an Outside Reversal Month after being rejected up at the multi-year high with vely bearish Long & Medium Term implications.. below 132 will expose Euro bulls for more risks down to the 1.26/25 3 year range lows.. a break of which could trigger a multi-year decline back to the 90's.. a repeat of the 1998/2000 3 year bear run..
Cheerios..
Haifa ac 08:06 GMT January 13, 2005
EURJPY is sitting on a 4 year uptrendline (Monthly). We break this--we get a heck of a correction!
Wednesday, January 12, 2005
Syd 00:25 GMT January 13, 2005
When virtually every 'analyst' on Wall Street get it wrong with everything at their finger tips, the mere mortals on GV do extremely well
Syd 21:29 GMT January 12, 2005
quito_ecuador_valdez not to worry your not alone , fell asleep for a moment when the Arabs said to have come in, strange how its always those times , the most important .
quito_ecuador_valdez 21:12 GMT January 12, 2005
bobl// NICE LONG AMIGO! I wish I had never paid attention to the 1.29 soothsayers on this forum..I dind't long..was waiting for 1.29 to print. LESSON LEARNED REAL FREEKING FAST. Go with instincts.
San Diego bobl 18:23 GMT January 12, 2005
Nibbling in to eur/usd...1.3280 long; really would like to see some deeper retracement however we just haven't gotten yet. I am taking 1/5 th size here, expecting to buy lower into more meaningful support levels. My intention is to develop a longer term position,
Spotforex NY 16:09 GMT January 12, 2005
I too am looking for 1.25ish for euro before the dollar bear market continues.....
Price action for euro continues to mimic last year's jan action (which eventually created a 'double-top' chart formation)....
Ldn 16:07 GMT January 12, 2005
Van Gecko many thanks, it looks as if Dollar rally has been thrown with the numbers but will keep my faith . more good data may turn it around (USD)
Spotforex NY 16:06 GMT January 12, 2005
FWIW - January has been the 'extreme' point for the Euro since its launch on Jan 1999.....
Only last year was the exception........
will the 'Zorro Zone' work in '05???????????????
I am refering to this post:
EU ZORRO 14:16 GMT January 12, 2005
...did we saw the year low in EURO around 1,30...???
van Gecko 16:01 GMT January 12, 2005
Ldn 15:25.. euro climbed 15 figures in Q4.. bear markets usually run much faster then bulls.. so 1.25 in Q1 is a reasonable m/t target..
Waverider 15:40.. usd/cad must take out the recent 1.17 lows & sustain weekly closes below inorder to have another shot at my 1.13 target.. a tough bear job under the present market dynamics..
gl..
Phuket Waverider 15:40 GMT January 12, 2005
van Gecko: When would you "give up the goose" so to speak, TIA
Limassol Bobby 15:33 GMT January 12, 2005
Not a Malta sun Gecko........we ran back to Cyprus :) Don't even ask :) Ciao
van Gecko 15:26 GMT January 12, 2005
hey Bobby.. lotsa new faces since your last visit.. hows life under the Malta sun? eur/cad taking a breather after the recent 1200 pip blast.. a bounce from here with euro stalling infront of 1.33 should support the Goose's return flight back to your 1.35/40 targets..
Ciao amigo..
Syd.. yep, old habits die hard.. cheers..
Ldn 15:25 GMT January 12, 2005
Van Gecko, do you have a time frame for the Euro low thks.
Ljubljana 15:04 GMT January 12, 2005
Hello Bobby! Nice to see you back on this fine forum. Hope to see more of your trading ideas in the future.
Limassol Bobby 15:03 GMT January 12, 2005
OK Martin.......here comes the stop......only reason why I jumped on U is that people here are taking seriously what's written, and althought I doubt that any1 would really trade any advice, it is fair to give a whole view ...Ciao
gold coast martin 15:00 GMT January 12, 2005
Limassol Bobby 14:57 GMT January 12, 2005
I am not in that camp....in this instance 13285 is the line in the sand.....
Limassol Bobby 14:57 GMT January 12, 2005
Whatever mate....just a legitimate question.......but have u ever heard of : " If in trouble, than you double " mantra....used by most prominent players ............like Irish folks bank , London granpa - Singapoure department Toy store...few smaller Q funds......name it mate......they've all been there, done that........Ciao
gold coast martin 14:50 GMT January 12, 2005
Limassol Bobby 14:46 GMT January 12, 2005
Mind your risk and dont worry about mine......if you dont mind!!..g/t
Limassol Bobby 14:46 GMT January 12, 2005
Where's your STOP Martin of Gold Coast mate?? You da non-stop guy??
DUH.......
gold coast martin 14:43 GMT January 12, 2005
FWIW...Adding to gbp shorts@18859...targeting still 18613....
also...adding euro shorts@13228.....targeting 13080...g/t
Limassol Bobby 14:42 GMT January 12, 2005
BTW Gecko, any dip on Looney should be picked up (for cash trading-only :) and left aside like good old vine...well not exactly that long...maybe for a year or so :)
How do u like 1.35-1.40 idea??
Ciao
Syd 14:32 GMT January 12, 2005
van Gecko yes the bait is too tempting to pass up Good Luck and thanks for keeping us focused
Limassol Bobby 14:31 GMT January 12, 2005
Hey my frozen Lizard buddy :) Looks like we're on the same side of coin - once again :) Good 2 see U well and kicking ...
We should stir some soup here :)
Ciao
van Gecko 14:26 GMT January 12, 2005
"08:08 GMT January 6, 2005
Euro had kissed good bye to 1.36 (yes, good bye.. not good buy)..
last year's Q4 'Dollar Bear Brigade' had turned into Q1 'Dollar Bull Brigade'.. these elephants now has 1.3000/2950 in sight with a 1.25/20 m/t target..
Cheerios.."
market adding some top feeding liquidity before taking out 1.29..
hello mr. Limassol.. good to see you again..
Limassol Bobby 14:18 GMT January 12, 2005
Hello surfers..EURUSD should be in final stage of Up-trend...
Right now, supports R at 1.3170....1.3135 and last but not least - 1.3090.
Resistances at 1.3320,1.3370 and whole zone in area of 1.3450-1.35.
If these resistances show 2tough 2 brake, Top will be in place and EURUSD can show us some down side in next year and half.
If not........well helll....U know good ole Up&Up :)
Ciao
When virtually every 'analyst' on Wall Street get it wrong with everything at their finger tips, the mere mortals on GV do extremely well
Syd 21:29 GMT January 12, 2005
quito_ecuador_valdez not to worry your not alone , fell asleep for a moment when the Arabs said to have come in, strange how its always those times , the most important .
quito_ecuador_valdez 21:12 GMT January 12, 2005
bobl// NICE LONG AMIGO! I wish I had never paid attention to the 1.29 soothsayers on this forum..I dind't long..was waiting for 1.29 to print. LESSON LEARNED REAL FREEKING FAST. Go with instincts.
San Diego bobl 18:23 GMT January 12, 2005
Nibbling in to eur/usd...1.3280 long; really would like to see some deeper retracement however we just haven't gotten yet. I am taking 1/5 th size here, expecting to buy lower into more meaningful support levels. My intention is to develop a longer term position,
Spotforex NY 16:09 GMT January 12, 2005
I too am looking for 1.25ish for euro before the dollar bear market continues.....
Price action for euro continues to mimic last year's jan action (which eventually created a 'double-top' chart formation)....
Ldn 16:07 GMT January 12, 2005
Van Gecko many thanks, it looks as if Dollar rally has been thrown with the numbers but will keep my faith . more good data may turn it around (USD)
Spotforex NY 16:06 GMT January 12, 2005
FWIW - January has been the 'extreme' point for the Euro since its launch on Jan 1999.....
Only last year was the exception........
will the 'Zorro Zone' work in '05???????????????
I am refering to this post:
EU ZORRO 14:16 GMT January 12, 2005
...did we saw the year low in EURO around 1,30...???
van Gecko 16:01 GMT January 12, 2005
Ldn 15:25.. euro climbed 15 figures in Q4.. bear markets usually run much faster then bulls.. so 1.25 in Q1 is a reasonable m/t target..
Waverider 15:40.. usd/cad must take out the recent 1.17 lows & sustain weekly closes below inorder to have another shot at my 1.13 target.. a tough bear job under the present market dynamics..
gl..
Phuket Waverider 15:40 GMT January 12, 2005
van Gecko: When would you "give up the goose" so to speak, TIA
Limassol Bobby 15:33 GMT January 12, 2005
Not a Malta sun Gecko........we ran back to Cyprus :) Don't even ask :) Ciao
van Gecko 15:26 GMT January 12, 2005
hey Bobby.. lotsa new faces since your last visit.. hows life under the Malta sun? eur/cad taking a breather after the recent 1200 pip blast.. a bounce from here with euro stalling infront of 1.33 should support the Goose's return flight back to your 1.35/40 targets..
Ciao amigo..
Syd.. yep, old habits die hard.. cheers..
Ldn 15:25 GMT January 12, 2005
Van Gecko, do you have a time frame for the Euro low thks.
Ljubljana 15:04 GMT January 12, 2005
Hello Bobby! Nice to see you back on this fine forum. Hope to see more of your trading ideas in the future.
Limassol Bobby 15:03 GMT January 12, 2005
OK Martin.......here comes the stop......only reason why I jumped on U is that people here are taking seriously what's written, and althought I doubt that any1 would really trade any advice, it is fair to give a whole view ...Ciao
gold coast martin 15:00 GMT January 12, 2005
Limassol Bobby 14:57 GMT January 12, 2005
I am not in that camp....in this instance 13285 is the line in the sand.....
Limassol Bobby 14:57 GMT January 12, 2005
Whatever mate....just a legitimate question.......but have u ever heard of : " If in trouble, than you double " mantra....used by most prominent players ............like Irish folks bank , London granpa - Singapoure department Toy store...few smaller Q funds......name it mate......they've all been there, done that........Ciao
gold coast martin 14:50 GMT January 12, 2005
Limassol Bobby 14:46 GMT January 12, 2005
Mind your risk and dont worry about mine......if you dont mind!!..g/t
Limassol Bobby 14:46 GMT January 12, 2005
Where's your STOP Martin of Gold Coast mate?? You da non-stop guy??
DUH.......
gold coast martin 14:43 GMT January 12, 2005
FWIW...Adding to gbp shorts@18859...targeting still 18613....
also...adding euro shorts@13228.....targeting 13080...g/t
Limassol Bobby 14:42 GMT January 12, 2005
BTW Gecko, any dip on Looney should be picked up (for cash trading-only :) and left aside like good old vine...well not exactly that long...maybe for a year or so :)
How do u like 1.35-1.40 idea??
Ciao
Syd 14:32 GMT January 12, 2005
van Gecko yes the bait is too tempting to pass up Good Luck and thanks for keeping us focused
Limassol Bobby 14:31 GMT January 12, 2005
Hey my frozen Lizard buddy :) Looks like we're on the same side of coin - once again :) Good 2 see U well and kicking ...
We should stir some soup here :)
Ciao
van Gecko 14:26 GMT January 12, 2005
"08:08 GMT January 6, 2005
Euro had kissed good bye to 1.36 (yes, good bye.. not good buy)..
last year's Q4 'Dollar Bear Brigade' had turned into Q1 'Dollar Bull Brigade'.. these elephants now has 1.3000/2950 in sight with a 1.25/20 m/t target..
Cheerios.."
market adding some top feeding liquidity before taking out 1.29..
hello mr. Limassol.. good to see you again..
Limassol Bobby 14:18 GMT January 12, 2005
Hello surfers..EURUSD should be in final stage of Up-trend...
Right now, supports R at 1.3170....1.3135 and last but not least - 1.3090.
Resistances at 1.3320,1.3370 and whole zone in area of 1.3450-1.35.
If these resistances show 2tough 2 brake, Top will be in place and EURUSD can show us some down side in next year and half.
If not........well helll....U know good ole Up&Up :)
Ciao
Monday, January 10, 2005
shanghai bc 00:21 GMT January 10, 2005
FXNEW -- Good morning..The front-wheel of Eur/Usd Mercedes is Eur/Jpy..The front-wheel is falling off now thanks to seasonal factor..Hundreds of billions of Dollars and Euros will be coming home in Q1..Being combined with stiff support in USX 80,the line of resistence is reasonably clear for Q1..But Dollar is not on a rocket either and most likely to keep falling after the seasonal factor and oversold factor wears off..Good trades..
shanghai bc 23:54 GMT January 9, 2005
VIIES -- Good morning..I would put on Eur/Usd 1.2900--1.3500 DNT for this month..For whole of 1Q,Dollar is likely to rise a bit more towards Eur/Usd 1.2500..Good trades..
FXNEW -- Good morning..The front-wheel of Eur/Usd Mercedes is Eur/Jpy..The front-wheel is falling off now thanks to seasonal factor..Hundreds of billions of Dollars and Euros will be coming home in Q1..Being combined with stiff support in USX 80,the line of resistence is reasonably clear for Q1..But Dollar is not on a rocket either and most likely to keep falling after the seasonal factor and oversold factor wears off..Good trades..
shanghai bc 23:54 GMT January 9, 2005
VIIES -- Good morning..I would put on Eur/Usd 1.2900--1.3500 DNT for this month..For whole of 1Q,Dollar is likely to rise a bit more towards Eur/Usd 1.2500..Good trades..
Friday, January 07, 2005
van Gecko 15:34 GMT January 7, 2005
fx blood transfusion at its best..
Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:31 GMT January 7, 2005
With key support taken out for eur/usd pair now the focus is on the T/L support around the 3030-40 area.
LDN SAM 15:30 GMT January 7, 2005
What's going on in EUR/USD?
gold coast martin 15:26 GMT January 7, 2005
HELLO.....13068 NEXT......
fx blood transfusion at its best..
Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:31 GMT January 7, 2005
With key support taken out for eur/usd pair now the focus is on the T/L support around the 3030-40 area.
LDN SAM 15:30 GMT January 7, 2005
What's going on in EUR/USD?
gold coast martin 15:26 GMT January 7, 2005
HELLO.....13068 NEXT......
Thursday, January 06, 2005
van Gecko 15:10 GMT January 6, 2005
hello Athens.. hope you are fine.. thank you for sharing your views..
old habits die hard & most of us tends to live by & repeat certain behaviors within our pre-defined comfort zones.. quite often, these predictable synergies are reflected on past & future market moves & it provides a good baseline bias for my analytics.. however, as you are well aware of the difference between static & dynamic parameters in your analysis, certain underlying stimulus could & will alter the course of future events and should play a part in our analytics as part of our quest for an 'edge' while trying to keep our fx lives simple as possible at the same time..
Syd.. this is 4th test of the 1.32/31 neckline in the last 5 weeks, a bounce from here could give some top heavy bulls another chance to bailout & m/t bears to add or initiate new possies on approach to 1.34/35.. a break of 1.31 would trigger massive stop sells & increase the odds for 1.36 being the high for the year/m/term..
viies.. Lean Hog seems to had developed a correlation with Gold recently..:) Feb Hog is at 75.50 with Gold testing the $425 neckline.. so a near term break of $425 could see Gold down at $400/395 and a 64 cent Hog.. in which case, lotsa pigs could get slaughtered for future delivery..
shanghai bc 13:54 GMT January 6, 2005
MUMBAI 13;26 -- Happy new year..I have been buying since yesterday around 1.3200 in fact..Guess I will keep buying for a few more days and see how the first operation of the new year goes from there..Crosses are acting in a meek way for Dollar to have a strong leg to advance in this round..I guess most noisy moves were made while most heavyweights were out of the market..And twice of Dollar Index approach towards 80 level and bounces occured in a thin market..I am reasonably confident we will soon see Euro making a upmove again towards 1.35..Then,again,a good Euro correction of multi-months may be not that far away from up there..Good trades..
Mumbai Jay 13:26 GMT January 6, 2005
Shanghai BC.. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU. EUR has broken the 50 DMA, though not on a closing basis..sub-130 seems a viable target for this bear run..your comment will be appreciated. TIA
Athens 13:14 GMT January 6, 2005
Tallinn viies, I don't know about pigs and sheep but long term patterns often repeat themselves and so I surely agree broadly with your 10:58 view about a strong retracement very probably coming form a certain nearby level.
Tallinn viies 12:21 GMT January 6, 2005
yes, and big pigs are look alike sheeps from the long distance
Athens 12:07 GMT January 6, 2005
van Gecko 11:18, I am sure that as a very experienced trader you certainly know that apples and oranges tend more to become alike in the long run, much more so than in the short run. Althoug perfect equalities are mostly formed by coincidence, the long term patterns tend to repeat. In this sense, big long term trends only very rarely turn in sharp V=shaped angles and, much more often, a first sharp 500-700 pip correction is followed by a strong retracement as the market doesn't give up easily the long term trend. May I also add that historically megatrends have almost never been reversed without concerted CB action. Technically speaking, although I am expecting some retracement from current or a little higher USD levels, I agree that the correction thus far is very shallow on a medium term basis and we should see considerably better levels for the Dollar in coming weeks but the moves won't be on a straight line. As I said at the beginning, I have no doubt you are well familiar with patterns, so this comment is not a tutorial but only a reminder.
Tallinn viies 11:44 GMT January 6, 2005
van Gecko 11:18 GMT - sorry. my mistake. I promise I do not compare bigs with sheeps
Syd 11:32 GMT January 6, 2005
van Gecko congratulations on your call - knew it would come good eventually
whats the top side before a further fall for the Euro this month if any cheers
van Gecko 11:18 GMT January 6, 2005
viies 10:54.. the past do provide some clues for the future.. but you can't compare apples to oranges since not all moves are created or must end equal .. imo under the present market dynamics euro will be lucky to reprint 1.35 from 1.29 this time around.. cheers..
Malaga boqueron 11:06 GMT January 6, 2005
Tallin
have to agree. Just witnessing a severe shakeout. I'm waiting for cable 1,83-1,84 to load up for the trip back to 1,95, and the eventual test of 2,00. Looking at GBPJPY in the meantime for clues.
Tallinn viies 10:54 GMT January 6, 2005
I would like to add to Athens that from the last year for example...
from the beginning of december euro moved from 1,1950 up to 1,2900. approximatelly 1000 points. mostly done by the funds and interbank fron running, corporates suck ers lost it all. from 1,2900 down to 1,2350 with 1st week of new year. approx 550 points!!!
so, basically we have been doing it all over again. after 1,2950 traded we may go up to 1,3550 again and probably range trade for some time....
Athens 10:09 GMT January 6, 2005
Re my 09:30 GMT December 29, indeed the USD has made a significant correction during the first few days of the new year as expected. However, caution is advised as the three european currencies have now entereded short term oversold territory and the market could backfire for a while from current or slightly higher USD levels. Good luck and have a profitable trading year all.
hello Athens.. hope you are fine.. thank you for sharing your views..
old habits die hard & most of us tends to live by & repeat certain behaviors within our pre-defined comfort zones.. quite often, these predictable synergies are reflected on past & future market moves & it provides a good baseline bias for my analytics.. however, as you are well aware of the difference between static & dynamic parameters in your analysis, certain underlying stimulus could & will alter the course of future events and should play a part in our analytics as part of our quest for an 'edge' while trying to keep our fx lives simple as possible at the same time..
Syd.. this is 4th test of the 1.32/31 neckline in the last 5 weeks, a bounce from here could give some top heavy bulls another chance to bailout & m/t bears to add or initiate new possies on approach to 1.34/35.. a break of 1.31 would trigger massive stop sells & increase the odds for 1.36 being the high for the year/m/term..
viies.. Lean Hog seems to had developed a correlation with Gold recently..:) Feb Hog is at 75.50 with Gold testing the $425 neckline.. so a near term break of $425 could see Gold down at $400/395 and a 64 cent Hog.. in which case, lotsa pigs could get slaughtered for future delivery..
shanghai bc 13:54 GMT January 6, 2005
MUMBAI 13;26 -- Happy new year..I have been buying since yesterday around 1.3200 in fact..Guess I will keep buying for a few more days and see how the first operation of the new year goes from there..Crosses are acting in a meek way for Dollar to have a strong leg to advance in this round..I guess most noisy moves were made while most heavyweights were out of the market..And twice of Dollar Index approach towards 80 level and bounces occured in a thin market..I am reasonably confident we will soon see Euro making a upmove again towards 1.35..Then,again,a good Euro correction of multi-months may be not that far away from up there..Good trades..
Mumbai Jay 13:26 GMT January 6, 2005
Shanghai BC.. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU. EUR has broken the 50 DMA, though not on a closing basis..sub-130 seems a viable target for this bear run..your comment will be appreciated. TIA
Athens 13:14 GMT January 6, 2005
Tallinn viies, I don't know about pigs and sheep but long term patterns often repeat themselves and so I surely agree broadly with your 10:58 view about a strong retracement very probably coming form a certain nearby level.
Tallinn viies 12:21 GMT January 6, 2005
yes, and big pigs are look alike sheeps from the long distance
Athens 12:07 GMT January 6, 2005
van Gecko 11:18, I am sure that as a very experienced trader you certainly know that apples and oranges tend more to become alike in the long run, much more so than in the short run. Althoug perfect equalities are mostly formed by coincidence, the long term patterns tend to repeat. In this sense, big long term trends only very rarely turn in sharp V=shaped angles and, much more often, a first sharp 500-700 pip correction is followed by a strong retracement as the market doesn't give up easily the long term trend. May I also add that historically megatrends have almost never been reversed without concerted CB action. Technically speaking, although I am expecting some retracement from current or a little higher USD levels, I agree that the correction thus far is very shallow on a medium term basis and we should see considerably better levels for the Dollar in coming weeks but the moves won't be on a straight line. As I said at the beginning, I have no doubt you are well familiar with patterns, so this comment is not a tutorial but only a reminder.
Tallinn viies 11:44 GMT January 6, 2005
van Gecko 11:18 GMT - sorry. my mistake. I promise I do not compare bigs with sheeps
Syd 11:32 GMT January 6, 2005
van Gecko congratulations on your call - knew it would come good eventually
whats the top side before a further fall for the Euro this month if any cheers
van Gecko 11:18 GMT January 6, 2005
viies 10:54.. the past do provide some clues for the future.. but you can't compare apples to oranges since not all moves are created or must end equal .. imo under the present market dynamics euro will be lucky to reprint 1.35 from 1.29 this time around.. cheers..
Malaga boqueron 11:06 GMT January 6, 2005
Tallin
have to agree. Just witnessing a severe shakeout. I'm waiting for cable 1,83-1,84 to load up for the trip back to 1,95, and the eventual test of 2,00. Looking at GBPJPY in the meantime for clues.
Tallinn viies 10:54 GMT January 6, 2005
I would like to add to Athens that from the last year for example...
from the beginning of december euro moved from 1,1950 up to 1,2900. approximatelly 1000 points. mostly done by the funds and interbank fron running, corporates suck ers lost it all. from 1,2900 down to 1,2350 with 1st week of new year. approx 550 points!!!
so, basically we have been doing it all over again. after 1,2950 traded we may go up to 1,3550 again and probably range trade for some time....
Athens 10:09 GMT January 6, 2005
Re my 09:30 GMT December 29, indeed the USD has made a significant correction during the first few days of the new year as expected. However, caution is advised as the three european currencies have now entereded short term oversold territory and the market could backfire for a while from current or slightly higher USD levels. Good luck and have a profitable trading year all.
van Gecko 08:53 GMT January 6, 2005
good day valdez.. nothing magic, its simple price actions in conjunction with classic tools confirming the foot prints of elephants.. cheers..
quito_ecuador_valdez 08:11 GMT January 6, 2005
Gecko baby! When ever you surface things pop..welcome back. Not wet from high waves amigo? Hope your vacation was safe and fun. OK, so you feel the mother of all support lines may be hit...not questioning you but tell me your magic...details please please
van Gecko 08:08 GMT January 6, 2005
Euro had kissed good bye to 1.36 (yes, good bye.. not good buy)..
last year's Q4 'Dollar Bear Brigade' had turned into Q1 'Dollar Bull Brigade'.. these elephants now has 1.3000/2950 in sight with a 1.25/20 m/t target..
Cheerios..
euro @1.3250
shanghai bc 04:50 GMT January 6, 2005
TH -- Good afternoon..Dollar index 80 has been a decade-old support and I tend to reduce positions towards that line each time too..This round of Dollar bounce is when we approached it for the second time..The first time was early December..Not sure if 80 will contain Dollar floor this time but with medium-term oversold posion plus approaching decade old support,Dollar must find some support and bounce too ..Hardly a sign of Dollar strength but a bounce only..83 is fine for me to re-start selling..But will reduce again if and when Dollar approaches 80 again..There must be a strong event to make Dollar fall through 80 or we may really start seeing some folks aggressively buying Dollars soon betting on 80 long-term/medium-term floor..Good trades.
Ltn th 04:35 GMT January 6, 2005
BC Good afternoon.
Would you recommend reducing EURUSD holdings as it approaches 1.4 in the next 2 weeks?
good day valdez.. nothing magic, its simple price actions in conjunction with classic tools confirming the foot prints of elephants.. cheers..
quito_ecuador_valdez 08:11 GMT January 6, 2005
Gecko baby! When ever you surface things pop..welcome back. Not wet from high waves amigo? Hope your vacation was safe and fun. OK, so you feel the mother of all support lines may be hit...not questioning you but tell me your magic...details please please
van Gecko 08:08 GMT January 6, 2005
Euro had kissed good bye to 1.36 (yes, good bye.. not good buy)..
last year's Q4 'Dollar Bear Brigade' had turned into Q1 'Dollar Bull Brigade'.. these elephants now has 1.3000/2950 in sight with a 1.25/20 m/t target..
Cheerios..
euro @1.3250
shanghai bc 04:50 GMT January 6, 2005
TH -- Good afternoon..Dollar index 80 has been a decade-old support and I tend to reduce positions towards that line each time too..This round of Dollar bounce is when we approached it for the second time..The first time was early December..Not sure if 80 will contain Dollar floor this time but with medium-term oversold posion plus approaching decade old support,Dollar must find some support and bounce too ..Hardly a sign of Dollar strength but a bounce only..83 is fine for me to re-start selling..But will reduce again if and when Dollar approaches 80 again..There must be a strong event to make Dollar fall through 80 or we may really start seeing some folks aggressively buying Dollars soon betting on 80 long-term/medium-term floor..Good trades.
Ltn th 04:35 GMT January 6, 2005
BC Good afternoon.
Would you recommend reducing EURUSD holdings as it approaches 1.4 in the next 2 weeks?
Wednesday, January 05, 2005
Melbourne 13:23 GMT January 5, 2005
Mla Evan 12:03 GMT January 5, 2005
fwiw - Farmacia went missing for a few days in Thailand after being caught in the Tsunami. Found in Phuket hospital with few cuts etc… should be home Thursday.
He sold gbp before Xmas & still open.. ( I'm currently maintaining his book )
van Gecko 12:18 GMT January 5, 2005
agree with Melbourne & Martin.. all charts are in an orderly & predictable manner from last week's Dollar low with dollar bulls of various size & temperment pouncing on the 'shell-shocked' bears every time the dollar approaches the hourly 21ma..
Melbourne 12:03 GMT January 5, 2005
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:46 GMT
Both Euro & pound are working down their respective channels in a orderly matter... with pound first to bounce off lower channel at 1.8730 fwiw
Mla Evan 12:03 GMT January 5, 2005
Farmacia, your views and suggestions appreciated re GBP.
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:27 GMT January 5, 2005
What in hades is London doing to the charts..one big unpredictable mess! Just got up to see this? Yuk!
prague viktor 10:06 GMT January 5, 2005
van Gecko 08:18..thanks mate..BTW a friend of mine who is working in the bank i asked him why dont u buy the USD at 1,36+++ level and his answer was we are waiting for 1,40+++ so i dont know for how long he will wait..G/L
van Gecko 08:18 GMT January 5, 2005
good day viktor 07:50.. they may be the same bunch looking & waiting patiently since 1999/95.. that said, while a 95 under-shoot can't be ruled out for the snoozy usd/yen, imo the risk of squeezing the dollar at/near a 10 year extremes plus butting heads with the BOJ vs the reward for another 5 yen from the recent 101 lows are pretty poor m/t betting odds..
prague viktor 07:50 GMT January 5, 2005
van Gecko..happy new year mate..what u can say please for those who are looking to the usd/yen @95level G/T
van Gecko 07:28 GMT January 5, 2005
"07:19 GMT December 16, 2004
".....the bookie odds are for some real money market moving elephants to place their m/t Euro bets next year on a major correction (or even a mult-year inflection slide) vs climbing another 700 pips up to 1.40....."
once again the Dollar is starting the new year with a bang after last week's year end market abnormalities..
while some psyched out $bullies may be waiting for that universally hyped 1.40 levels to get in on the correction/trend reversal (some europhiles are still waiting for .82 from 2002), eur/gbp lagging above .7050 is still at good risk m/t carry sell & snooze levels..
fwiw..
on a side note.. those lucky few who may had benefited from most or all of the Q4 dollar slide should consider donating some of their windfalls for tsunami relief instead of giving them back to the dollar waves this year..
havepip new year..
EUR/GBP @.7050, Euro @ 1.3250
shanghai bc 07:02 GMT January 5, 2005
SYD -- Good afternoon.Dollar is overbought short-term,so,it may need to correct a bit for a few days..Nice to be overbought even for a short-term for a long suffering Dollar..Good trades.
shanghai bc 06:53 GMT January 5, 2005
VIIES -- Good afternoon..I would be happier if you are on the long side of Eur/Usd today..Good trades.
shanghai bc 12:05 GMT January 4, 2005
NIC 1:37 -- Good evening..There is a good possibility of Eur/usd testing 50 ma around 1.3200..How Eur/Usd reacts from there could be very important for the next several months..I see the range of 1.40--1.25 in the first half of this year..Good trades in the new year..
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
Mla Evan 12:03 GMT January 5, 2005
fwiw - Farmacia went missing for a few days in Thailand after being caught in the Tsunami. Found in Phuket hospital with few cuts etc… should be home Thursday.
He sold gbp before Xmas & still open.. ( I'm currently maintaining his book )
van Gecko 12:18 GMT January 5, 2005
agree with Melbourne & Martin.. all charts are in an orderly & predictable manner from last week's Dollar low with dollar bulls of various size & temperment pouncing on the 'shell-shocked' bears every time the dollar approaches the hourly 21ma..
Melbourne 12:03 GMT January 5, 2005
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:46 GMT
Both Euro & pound are working down their respective channels in a orderly matter... with pound first to bounce off lower channel at 1.8730 fwiw
Mla Evan 12:03 GMT January 5, 2005
Farmacia, your views and suggestions appreciated re GBP.
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:27 GMT January 5, 2005
What in hades is London doing to the charts..one big unpredictable mess! Just got up to see this? Yuk!
prague viktor 10:06 GMT January 5, 2005
van Gecko 08:18..thanks mate..BTW a friend of mine who is working in the bank i asked him why dont u buy the USD at 1,36+++ level and his answer was we are waiting for 1,40+++ so i dont know for how long he will wait..G/L
van Gecko 08:18 GMT January 5, 2005
good day viktor 07:50.. they may be the same bunch looking & waiting patiently since 1999/95.. that said, while a 95 under-shoot can't be ruled out for the snoozy usd/yen, imo the risk of squeezing the dollar at/near a 10 year extremes plus butting heads with the BOJ vs the reward for another 5 yen from the recent 101 lows are pretty poor m/t betting odds..
prague viktor 07:50 GMT January 5, 2005
van Gecko..happy new year mate..what u can say please for those who are looking to the usd/yen @95level G/T
van Gecko 07:28 GMT January 5, 2005
"07:19 GMT December 16, 2004
".....the bookie odds are for some real money market moving elephants to place their m/t Euro bets next year on a major correction (or even a mult-year inflection slide) vs climbing another 700 pips up to 1.40....."
once again the Dollar is starting the new year with a bang after last week's year end market abnormalities..
while some psyched out $bullies may be waiting for that universally hyped 1.40 levels to get in on the correction/trend reversal (some europhiles are still waiting for .82 from 2002), eur/gbp lagging above .7050 is still at good risk m/t carry sell & snooze levels..
fwiw..
on a side note.. those lucky few who may had benefited from most or all of the Q4 dollar slide should consider donating some of their windfalls for tsunami relief instead of giving them back to the dollar waves this year..
havepip new year..
EUR/GBP @.7050, Euro @ 1.3250
shanghai bc 07:02 GMT January 5, 2005
SYD -- Good afternoon.Dollar is overbought short-term,so,it may need to correct a bit for a few days..Nice to be overbought even for a short-term for a long suffering Dollar..Good trades.
shanghai bc 06:53 GMT January 5, 2005
VIIES -- Good afternoon..I would be happier if you are on the long side of Eur/Usd today..Good trades.
shanghai bc 12:05 GMT January 4, 2005
NIC 1:37 -- Good evening..There is a good possibility of Eur/usd testing 50 ma around 1.3200..How Eur/Usd reacts from there could be very important for the next several months..I see the range of 1.40--1.25 in the first half of this year..Good trades in the new year..
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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