Gecko Global Analytics

van Gecko 15:10 GMT January 6, 2005
hello Athens.. hope you are fine.. thank you for sharing your views..
old habits die hard & most of us tends to live by & repeat certain behaviors within our pre-defined comfort zones.. quite often, these predictable synergies are reflected on past & future market moves & it provides a good baseline bias for my analytics.. however, as you are well aware of the difference between static & dynamic parameters in your analysis, certain underlying stimulus could & will alter the course of future events and should play a part in our analytics as part of our quest for an 'edge' while trying to keep our fx lives simple as possible at the same time..

Syd.. this is 4th test of the 1.32/31 neckline in the last 5 weeks, a bounce from here could give some top heavy bulls another chance to bailout & m/t bears to add or initiate new possies on approach to 1.34/35.. a break of 1.31 would trigger massive stop sells & increase the odds for 1.36 being the high for the year/m/term..

viies.. Lean Hog seems to had developed a correlation with Gold recently..:) Feb Hog is at 75.50 with Gold testing the $425 neckline.. so a near term break of $425 could see Gold down at $400/395 and a 64 cent Hog.. in which case, lotsa pigs could get slaughtered for future delivery..



shanghai bc 13:54 GMT January 6, 2005

MUMBAI 13;26 -- Happy new year..I have been buying since yesterday around 1.3200 in fact..Guess I will keep buying for a few more days and see how the first operation of the new year goes from there..Crosses are acting in a meek way for Dollar to have a strong leg to advance in this round..I guess most noisy moves were made while most heavyweights were out of the market..And twice of Dollar Index approach towards 80 level and bounces occured in a thin market..I am reasonably confident we will soon see Euro making a upmove again towards 1.35..Then,again,a good Euro correction of multi-months may be not that far away from up there..Good trades..

Mumbai Jay 13:26 GMT January 6, 2005
Shanghai BC.. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU. EUR has broken the 50 DMA, though not on a closing basis..sub-130 seems a viable target for this bear run..your comment will be appreciated. TIA

Athens 13:14 GMT January 6, 2005
Tallinn viies, I don't know about pigs and sheep but long term patterns often repeat themselves and so I surely agree broadly with your 10:58 view about a strong retracement very probably coming form a certain nearby level.

Tallinn viies 12:21 GMT January 6, 2005
yes, and big pigs are look alike sheeps from the long distance

Athens 12:07 GMT January 6, 2005
van Gecko 11:18, I am sure that as a very experienced trader you certainly know that apples and oranges tend more to become alike in the long run, much more so than in the short run. Althoug perfect equalities are mostly formed by coincidence, the long term patterns tend to repeat. In this sense, big long term trends only very rarely turn in sharp V=shaped angles and, much more often, a first sharp 500-700 pip correction is followed by a strong retracement as the market doesn't give up easily the long term trend. May I also add that historically megatrends have almost never been reversed without concerted CB action. Technically speaking, although I am expecting some retracement from current or a little higher USD levels, I agree that the correction thus far is very shallow on a medium term basis and we should see considerably better levels for the Dollar in coming weeks but the moves won't be on a straight line. As I said at the beginning, I have no doubt you are well familiar with patterns, so this comment is not a tutorial but only a reminder.

Tallinn viies 11:44 GMT January 6, 2005
van Gecko 11:18 GMT - sorry. my mistake. I promise I do not compare bigs with sheeps

Syd 11:32 GMT January 6, 2005
van Gecko congratulations on your call - knew it would come good eventually
whats the top side before a further fall for the Euro this month if any cheers

van Gecko 11:18 GMT January 6, 2005
viies 10:54.. the past do provide some clues for the future.. but you can't compare apples to oranges since not all moves are created or must end equal .. imo under the present market dynamics euro will be lucky to reprint 1.35 from 1.29 this time around.. cheers..


Malaga boqueron 11:06 GMT January 6, 2005
Tallin
have to agree. Just witnessing a severe shakeout. I'm waiting for cable 1,83-1,84 to load up for the trip back to 1,95, and the eventual test of 2,00. Looking at GBPJPY in the meantime for clues.


Tallinn viies 10:54 GMT January 6, 2005
I would like to add to Athens that from the last year for example...

from the beginning of december euro moved from 1,1950 up to 1,2900. approximatelly 1000 points. mostly done by the funds and interbank fron running, corporates suck ers lost it all. from 1,2900 down to 1,2350 with 1st week of new year. approx 550 points!!!

so, basically we have been doing it all over again. after 1,2950 traded we may go up to 1,3550 again and probably range trade for some time....

Athens 10:09 GMT January 6, 2005
Re my 09:30 GMT December 29, indeed the USD has made a significant correction during the first few days of the new year as expected. However, caution is advised as the three european currencies have now entereded short term oversold territory and the market could backfire for a while from current or slightly higher USD levels. Good luck and have a profitable trading year all.