Gecko Global Analytics

Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth

Friday, May 28, 2004

van Gecko 10:17 GMT May 28, 2004
morning nk.. after wiping out a month of Usd/Chf profits with this week's 450 pip break down bar, the little Dollar could see some retracement..
however, in view of its recent movements, Dollar bulls positioning for the mid-term should touch it only gingerly with a 10 feet long pole..
*!*

saloniko 2004 nk 08:56 GMT May 28, 2004
Good Morning Gecko..
surviving in this biz require luck, play money, & hard work in reading/deciphering techs/funnymentals/voodoos/or whatever..theresnofreelunch..
Very Nice!..Specialy voodoos!

Bc ..i read a very nice post of optimistic today..
I like it very much..too!
nk

prague viktor 09:10 GMT May 28, 2004
Gecko, thx ..

st. pete islander 08:44 GMT May 28, 2004
Exactly so, Gecko. Thx.

van Gecko 08:39 GMT May 28, 2004
good day Malaga boqueron 07:34.. thanks..
your February views for EUUS correction down to the recent 1.19/18 lows was spot on..
maintaining our conviction until proven 'guilty' is difficult under the influence of various external stimulus in our daily fx lives.. Some traders spent years living in dark caves, inside the world of technical silences..
fwiw..
good day prague viktor 07:39.. islander, and any interested long marching Queen's soldiers.. multiple weekly closes above 1.8050 will confirm the m/t bias for gbp/usd 1.86->1.92->2.00
fwiw..
surviving in this biz require luck, play money, & hard work in reading/deciphering techs/funnymentals/voodoos/or whatever..theresnofreelunch..
'lazy man's way to riches' are only found in books & subscription hypes..
fwiw..(Fun Wonderful Intelligent Woman) islander?

st. pete islander 08:16 GMT May 28, 2004
Years ago, the airlines suffered several very deadly mid-air collisions in clear weather. The results of the studies done to find the probable cause found that, after hour of looking out the window, the pilots eyes tended to focus on a point only 12 feet in front of the cockpit. This was countered by expanding the eye movement and looking over a broader field of vision. Q, Gecko, Shanghai, and Raven come to mind as just some of those who seem to look at the bigger picture to avoid running into an immovable object at a high rate of speed. gt

st. pete islander 07:55 GMT May 28, 2004
PipPirate .... Now, don't you go getting me in trouble. It is all in the archives. When I got here years ago, you could go there and find the full vocabulary and print it for free. I don't know if it is still there or not.

Rivonia PipPirate 07:48 GMT May 28, 2004
hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:24 GMT May 28, 2004
For a small monthly fee, st. pete islander can send you a full translation of van Gecko's poetic posts, or take a two week trial first. :-}

prague viktor 07:39 GMT May 28, 2004
Van Gecko:good day,If I understand ur post the gpb start the long way to the 1,9++ and 2++ level or Im wrong thx.

Malaga boqueron 07:34 GMT May 28, 2004
hello Gecko, you were right, I was wrong, as regards EUUS when we were down at the 1,1900 level a month ago. That 1,1750 level was very well defended, and the 1,2180 level was not. I guess it's goodbye buck, sell on any rally mode. Again good call.

st. pete islander 07:26 GMT May 28, 2004
Gecko ... will watch. Your Feb words on the Queen were pearls .... and results put some on Tampa Lil. Any feeling for top end?

London 07:26 GMT May 28, 2004
van Gecko me too its like trying to decifer code

hk ab nz 0.65 in 3 months 07:24 GMT May 28, 2004
Gecko, I would be v. grateful if you can use simpler terms for us the novice group...:D
van Gecko 07:18 GMT May 28, 2004

van Gecko 07:18 GMT May 28, 2004
islander.. will do..
not dancing with the Geisha as my hands are tie with the Conti cousins..
fwiw..
that eccentric old fella Gbp/Usd has a habit of doing the unexpected at times.. sudden & vicious daily/weekly KITA (Kick In The A$$) swings are vely common since the days of Sorro (or was it BOE Sorrow?)..
it seems to had come out of its multi year 'snooze mode' this year after breaking that 10 year range..

st. pete islander 06:55 GMT May 28, 2004
Gecko, whirlwinds to be very bad this year ..... watch your six.
Have you decided to dance with Geisha Girls? Q has been calling this one perfectly. More down to go. gt

van Gecko 06:49 GMT May 28, 2004
morning islander.. typhoon season starting here in the South China Seas.. may be some 'fx typhoons' are brewing after spoiling us with the recent 'u snooze u loose' ranges..
Hello Tampa Lil ^_^

London. 06:16.. fyi
"van Gecko 02:27 GMT May 21, 2004
Euro is kissing good bye (yes, good buy) to May, the underlying market dynamics is presenting a good window of opportunty for big bad bulls to send it on its merry way above 1.21/22 .."
Cheerios..

st. pete islander 06:25 GMT May 28, 2004
For those of you who haven't been in the FF for a long time, the too few visits by van Gecko are a real treat. It might take a minute or two, but if you pay attention, his words are actually quite clear in meaning. Or, does that mean I've been here too long.
Gecko, Linda says hello and thank you. gt

London. 06:16 GMT May 28, 2004
van Gecko Does that mean you are Dollar Bear or Bull sorry I dont understand you post.

van Gecko 06:13 GMT May 28, 2004
Level1 "Eur/Usd Bottom Feeder Club" members now replaced by level1 "Usd/Chf Bottom Fishing Club" dive hards.. don't know why the majority of Fx Houdinis perfer to dance with a lead left feet..

Oil man 05:22.. 1st weekly Fractal B/O bar.. '5%' will buy dips, well the rest will sell blips..
'Fatal Attraction' forex style..?

UAE Oil man 05:22 GMT May 28, 2004
It's actually only the first euro week/bar..and people are out of breath..
Let's see after 3-10-20 weeks how they feel;)

Monday, May 24, 2004

van Gecko 13:21 GMT May 21, 2004
under 1.29 is fatal for Dollar/chf..
1.2650 may be the gateway to mid term bliss for the little dollar to take a siesta down at 1.2150.. 1.1111..

van Gecko 05:26 GMT May 21, 2004
islander.. Euro bulls camping out all week above the 21 day ma for the first time since February may be the sign that frustrated Dollar bulls are ready to pack it in & say good bye to this fruitless range..

van Gecko 02:27 GMT May 21, 2004
Euro is kissing good bye (yes, good buy) to May, the underlying market dynamics is presenting a good window of opportunty for big bad bulls to send it on its merry way above 1.21/22 ..
Cheerios..

Tuesday, May 11, 2004

van Gecko 10:22 GMT May 10, 2004
Malaga boqueron.. you might be right.. in hindsight, I might regret closing my euro shorts up at 1.19 in April.. however, after a month I had only left 70 pips on the table after giving up my 'Sons Of Beatrice' status..
it's against my risk/reward appetite to dive in here even though '1.15 is a given' as so many 'me too gurus' are advising the herds at the moment..

Malaga boqueron 08:50 GMT May 10, 2004
Hello van Gecko once again. Yes, agree with your thoughts. This could just be a much needed shakeout, before the usd resumes its downfall. However, since mid-February the dollar uptrend is clearly intact, and now it is in the process of breaking key trend lines since the downtrend began in earnest in early 2002, hence good odds the dollar lo's seen this past February will mark the lo of this year. Odds are good the market is in the process of going for the other extreme.

van Gecko 07:57 GMT May 10, 2004
good day Malaga boqueron.. the market is very efficient in flushing excess blood.. exercising prudent risk management in when to milk the market & when to hold back is one of the many tricks of the trades in this biz..
imo the risk of l/t trend continuation (or a substantial pullback) for the dollar far out weights milking the dollar for more reward to the upside at this point..

Malaga boqueron 07:02 GMT May 10, 2004
Hello van Gecko. Always enjoy reading your posts. Just seems to me there are too many usd doomsday preachers out there that need be converted to the usd bull cause before this current usd rally can end. Until then keep buying usd.

van Gecko 06:41 GMT May 10, 2004
If history is about to repeat itself, the market seems to be obsessed with enticing more Bears into the 'Euro/$ Bottom Feeder Club' before reversing with a club full of bag holders..

Near term, old & new club memebers (& dollar bulls) who are in 7th heaven over Friday's price levels should watch Gold, $/Jap & $/Cad like a hawk for Tadpole extension failures..
meanwhile down here on earth,
US Equities are still falling.. Crude oil is still rising..
Mercer & Bloom is still singing their "Fools Rush In" classic in perpetuality..
..the Beat goes on..

interesting times indeed..

Thursday, May 06, 2004

van Gecko 11:18 GMT May 6, 2004
market moving dollar bulls may had lost interest in top feeding the Dollar after spending tons of ammo in April pushing the euro_swissy twins with little or no return.. (may be some had over-heard Confuse_cious mumble "Fx_elephants who chooses to stand in front of Yearly, Monthly, Weekly, & Daily Falling Dollar Knives may soon lose weight & have ever-lasting peace away from FX"..?)
;
this week's break under 1.29 is fatal for Dollar/chf..
the little dollar looks exhausted after repeated failures to over-shoot 1.31 in April..
with 1.2888 acting like a stonewall to heaven, 1.2650 may be the gateway to mid term bliss for the little dollar down at 1.2150.. 1.1111..
Cheerios..

Wednesday, May 05, 2004

van Gecko 08:15 GMT May 5, 2004
the Dollar breaking down to one month lows had erased a good portion of the recent gain by all of the major currency pairs..
a sub 89 USDX index will wipe-out most of the profit across the board..
some retracements can be expected after a 200+ point plunge, but a stalled US Equity market in retreat plus the Dollar below USDX 90 towards Friday this week could convert more BULL$ into BOOB$ (Bail Out On Blips..;)

Money talks..while BS do the walks..
lotsa good free reads, amusing diversional 'insanities' abound..

The S&P500 Index had failed to break above 1150 again in April.. The March daily 'Triple Top' formation had propagated into a weekly 'Double Top within a Rising Wedge'..
'Wedges' are pressure building formations.. resolving the formation could see a break-out in either direction, usually in the direction of the Wedge. However, with the Index closing the month under 1130 & the 50 month ma suggests more corrections to the downside before further attempts to break above the 1150/70 major resistance..

Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..