Gecko Global Analytics

Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth

Saturday, February 28, 2004

Usd/Jpy may be the gatekeeper here as to how far the Dollar will correct in this round.. above 110 could send Euro back below 1.23 in a hurry while giving up 108 again will see Euro bulls start hollering for 1.30 again..
Consecutive monthly failures by Euro up at the major 1.29 level along with Usd/Jpy's 3 month high closing above 1.09 last week are short term Dollar positive.. Gold, with its role as the main hedge against falling Dollar, had fallen from its 430 peak and closing below the 21 week ma suggest futher correction down to the 380/375 levels..
Therefore over the short term, it is a reasonably good bet that the Dollar have more room to correct vs the Euro & other major currencies..

van Gecko 15:13 GMT February 26, 2004
gbp/usd confirming her Majesty's 'January Drop/February Flop' habits..
a return down to the decade long 1.70 range top may be in order m/t.. below, one can't rule out another 15 figure decline down to the 1.55's..
below 1.8550 this week would enlist more conservative short marching soldiers to join the rank of some brave contrarian soldier from up at 1.91..

Tuesday, February 24, 2004

S&P 500
Since retreating from 1160 last week, the index had closed under the 21 day ma for the last 2 days, re-enforcing the the overall market bearish tone..
Additional month end book squaring could push it down to the 1125 levels while 1145 caps the topside.. below, the next major support is down at the 1060/70's..
The Nasdaq is on the verge of confirming a mid January top.. good support here at the 1450 levels while the market consolidate prior to the next move up or down.. a break here could see a fast move down to the 1360/80's..

Peter Mark
Gecko Global Analytics

Monday, February 23, 2004

van Gecko 08:29 GMT February 23, 2004
usd/jpy may be the gatekeeper here as to how far the dollar will correct in this round.. above 110 could send euro back below 1.23 in a hurry while giving up 108 again will see euro bulls start hollering for 1.30 again.. odds are not yet ready for a full blown dollar correction..fwiw..

Wednesday, February 18, 2004

van Gecko 15:03 GMT February 18, 2004
The lack of bounce back over 1.2880 after 1.29 was seen is a good indication that momentum bulls of size had spent their ammos for the day.. closing under 1.2880 will form the index & left fingers of a potential daily sell fractal reversal formation from a major monthly level..
Cable pushers are trying hard to hold gbp/jpy above 200/01 in hope of squeezing a few more pips.. a weekly close above 200 is still crucial for bulls hoping for a straight up shot above 1.91..
Cheerios

Porto PJT 15:50 GMT February 13, 2004
Gecko, nice call on gbp jpy.

Thursday, February 12, 2004

The S&P 500 had been on a year long bull run without any significant retracements..
Selling the index ahead of the 1170 multi-year resistance may offer a good risk/reward trading opportunity for short/medium term players..
Failure to break the 1170's & a close this month below 1130 would bias the odd for a long overdue pull-back..
Near term, it may be worthwhile for med term longs to consider hedging their bets with some short dated Knock In's..

Peter Mark
Gecko Global Analytics

van Gecko 12:35 GMT February 12, 2004
GBP/JPY may had been a major contributing factor in GBP/USD's 33 figure bull run from September & its subsequent break above the 1.70 decade long range cap..
GBP/USD bulls shooting for the 2.0000 moonscapes from here should watch GBP/JPY like a hawk as it approaches the multi-year 200 cap once again.. failure to sustain a weekly close above 200 would tilt the odd for a substantial retracement for both pairs..
the 1.8950/1.9050 100 pip band may be a bull trap zone for break-out artists & offer vely good risk/reward shorting opportunties for her majesty's brave m/t contrarian soldiers.. fwiw..

van Gecko 10:04 GMT February 12, 2004
ldn.. near term, 1.2700/1,2650 should get tons of 'Buy On Dip for 1.30' support.. short term, range players will come in again ahead of 1.2350/00.. mid-term, 1.2000 should be tough to crack under the present dollar negative enviroment..
that said, the underlying dynamics of the eur/gbp & eur/jpy crosses are not m/t positive for euro..
road, nice to see your renaissance as a positional player with conviction..
cheerios

van Gecko 09:34 GMT February 12, 2004
major monthly levels rarely get taken out on a 1st assault basis..
it took 5 months to take out 1.20.. so what are the odds for Euro taking out 1.29/30 on the 1st try ?

van Gecko 09:58 GMT February 2, 2004
the difference between the mindset of a multi figure long marching positional player and that of a sub figure pip picker is like night and day.. anyone who had ever rode a trend for serveral hundred pips profit in their trading life would most certainly had overcome their '20 pip stop' piker mentality..

Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..