Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Thursday, February 12, 2004
The S&P 500 had been on a year long bull run without any significant retracements..
Selling the index ahead of the 1170 multi-year resistance may offer a good risk/reward trading opportunity for short/medium term players..
Failure to break the 1170's & a close this month below 1130 would bias the odd for a long overdue pull-back..
Near term, it may be worthwhile for med term longs to consider hedging their bets with some short dated Knock In's..
Peter Mark
Gecko Global Analytics
van Gecko 12:35 GMT February 12, 2004
GBP/JPY may had been a major contributing factor in GBP/USD's 33 figure bull run from September & its subsequent break above the 1.70 decade long range cap..
GBP/USD bulls shooting for the 2.0000 moonscapes from here should watch GBP/JPY like a hawk as it approaches the multi-year 200 cap once again.. failure to sustain a weekly close above 200 would tilt the odd for a substantial retracement for both pairs..
the 1.8950/1.9050 100 pip band may be a bull trap zone for break-out artists & offer vely good risk/reward shorting opportunties for her majesty's brave m/t contrarian soldiers.. fwiw..
van Gecko 10:04 GMT February 12, 2004
ldn.. near term, 1.2700/1,2650 should get tons of 'Buy On Dip for 1.30' support.. short term, range players will come in again ahead of 1.2350/00.. mid-term, 1.2000 should be tough to crack under the present dollar negative enviroment..
that said, the underlying dynamics of the eur/gbp & eur/jpy crosses are not m/t positive for euro..
road, nice to see your renaissance as a positional player with conviction..
cheerios
van Gecko 09:34 GMT February 12, 2004
major monthly levels rarely get taken out on a 1st assault basis..
it took 5 months to take out 1.20.. so what are the odds for Euro taking out 1.29/30 on the 1st try ?
van Gecko 09:58 GMT February 2, 2004
the difference between the mindset of a multi figure long marching positional player and that of a sub figure pip picker is like night and day.. anyone who had ever rode a trend for serveral hundred pips profit in their trading life would most certainly had overcome their '20 pip stop' piker mentality..
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
Selling the index ahead of the 1170 multi-year resistance may offer a good risk/reward trading opportunity for short/medium term players..
Failure to break the 1170's & a close this month below 1130 would bias the odd for a long overdue pull-back..
Near term, it may be worthwhile for med term longs to consider hedging their bets with some short dated Knock In's..
Peter Mark
Gecko Global Analytics
van Gecko 12:35 GMT February 12, 2004
GBP/JPY may had been a major contributing factor in GBP/USD's 33 figure bull run from September & its subsequent break above the 1.70 decade long range cap..
GBP/USD bulls shooting for the 2.0000 moonscapes from here should watch GBP/JPY like a hawk as it approaches the multi-year 200 cap once again.. failure to sustain a weekly close above 200 would tilt the odd for a substantial retracement for both pairs..
the 1.8950/1.9050 100 pip band may be a bull trap zone for break-out artists & offer vely good risk/reward shorting opportunties for her majesty's brave m/t contrarian soldiers.. fwiw..
van Gecko 10:04 GMT February 12, 2004
ldn.. near term, 1.2700/1,2650 should get tons of 'Buy On Dip for 1.30' support.. short term, range players will come in again ahead of 1.2350/00.. mid-term, 1.2000 should be tough to crack under the present dollar negative enviroment..
that said, the underlying dynamics of the eur/gbp & eur/jpy crosses are not m/t positive for euro..
road, nice to see your renaissance as a positional player with conviction..
cheerios
van Gecko 09:34 GMT February 12, 2004
major monthly levels rarely get taken out on a 1st assault basis..
it took 5 months to take out 1.20.. so what are the odds for Euro taking out 1.29/30 on the 1st try ?
van Gecko 09:58 GMT February 2, 2004
the difference between the mindset of a multi figure long marching positional player and that of a sub figure pip picker is like night and day.. anyone who had ever rode a trend for serveral hundred pips profit in their trading life would most certainly had overcome their '20 pip stop' piker mentality..
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Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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