Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Tuesday, November 30, 2004
Pecs Andras 15:32 GMT November 30, 2004
Something big is being cooked in the market, I guess. USD/CAD and EUR/USD are both close to session highs, which is unusual, to say the least.
If CAD remains to be a good guide dog, we are soon in for a nice EUR dive
London. 15:08 GMT November 30, 2004
Overvalued AUD and CAD performed strongly recently AUD has appreciated more sharply on a trade-weighted basis, As a result AUD is expensive relative to CAD difficult to justify given Canada's superior macroeconomic fundamentals which include a sizable current account surplus. Both (AUD) and CAD look susceptible to a pullback BCA Research report.
slv sam 15:04 GMT November 30, 2004
weak cad yesterday and today can be a worrying observation for those who are us$ bearish!GT
van Gecko 14:55 GMT November 30, 2004
viktor 14:20.. may be those Men in Black want to collect a few more singers before turning off the stage lights.. or they may want to start December off with a bang, or before Sydney open its 1st December trading week..
"15:43 GMT November 28, 2004
.... with last week's Dollar spike & close down at the extremes of another multi-year low set-up, just think what would happen if those Men in Black were to flood the market with Dollar bids 5 minutes before Sydney open its trading week.."
van Gecko 14:21 GMT November 30, 2004
Atl TJ 14:06..G.day.. usd/cad holding firm while the euro bulls wants to try for the moon.. meanwhile, eur/cad is exhibiting northbound tendencies after flying south with the Goose for the last 6 months.. so should euro goes into a side, down, or dive correction, the Goose should fly..
gl..
gold coast martin..;) cheers
prague viktor 14:20 GMT November 30, 2004
Gecko..thanks a very nice song...but for how long they will sing this song.. there must a pull back maybe not now but from 1,34+++...G/T
gold coast martin 14:12 GMT November 30, 2004
van Gecko 14:03 GMT November 30, 2004
The national anthem for the dollar bears will be the shortest in history....soon to be replaced with bull anthem of "..you aint seen nothing yet.....".and one of the verses says ''..heres something you will never forget...".....bears soon to turn to teddys.....after 13334 level is reached,,,,,,g/t
Atl TJ 14:06 GMT November 30, 2004
van Gecko 13:14 GMT November 30, 2004
the Goose wants to break loose.. Usd/Cad is now a buy for long distance flyers..
Gecko, what am I missing here. I show that the goose has another 150 or so pips just to reach the upper channel line. 3 weeks ago I was thinking dollar correction and couldn't be more wrong. Why now? I am only questioning your statement so that I might learn something here. Not trying to be a jerk.
van Gecko 14:03 GMT November 30, 2004
G.day viktor.. how about those happy Dollar Bears now have a new Anthem to sing.. "American Bye"..
pls see fx Jim Mclean down at 08:50 GMT..:)
prague viktor 13:48 GMT November 30, 2004
van Gecko ..G.day mate! can u give me only 1 reason not to long the USD at this time I cant find....G/L G/T
Ldn 13:37 GMT November 30, 2004
van Gecko great. thanks
van Gecko 13:31 GMT November 30, 2004
Ldn.. lets try the 1.2570's 1st.. looks like Parity for the great Canada geese will have to wait a bit longer now..
Ldn 13:21 GMT November 30, 2004
van Gecko whats your target on the CAD cheers
van Gecko 13:14 GMT November 30, 2004
the Goose wants to break loose.. Usd/Cad is now a buy for long distance flyers..
Bruxville Jim 08:50 GMT November 30, 2004
Anthem of Dollar Bears;)
"American Bye"
A long, long time ago…
I can still remember
How the dollar used to make me smile.
And I knew if I had my chance
I’d sell the currency of France
And, maybe, I’d be happy for awhile.
[..]
I started singin’
Bye-bye, dollar assets good-bye
Sold my Chevy at the levee
‘cause my pension ran dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin’ sake to try
Singin’ this’ll be the day that it died
This’ll be the day that it died.
van Gecko 01:52 GMT November 30, 2004
Sydney.. yep.. great time for BOJ sans & their Men in Black croonies to come in here to give the market a nudge..
Sydney 01:48 GMT November 30, 2004
van Gecko 01:45 I think they are , we seem ripe for a correction and fx what with Korea China Japan lined up to take on the specs along with anyone else in their army. 'The Art of War at its best'
van Gecko 01:45 GMT November 30, 2004
Sydney.. they must be watching the 450 level like a hawk.. taking out the level 1 stops below 449 could be the trigger for a Gold medal size dive..
Sydney 01:22 GMT November 30, 2004
Van Gecko , this bloke agrees with you also
Speculators behind gold push, fundamentals don't warrant rally. Gold's "heavily overextended so I think we're in for some serious consolidation if not a correction soon," says 'The Grandich Letter's' Peter Grandich
van Gecko 01:19 GMT November 30, 2004
Gold has a tendency to fall suddenly & viciously from great heights.. liquidity had taken a nose dive in the recent days after climbing $85 in 6 months & 35 bucks in 4 weeks up to the recent multi-year high.. a near term liquidation correction down to the $430's is now in the cards.. (who wants to be the last big sucker to buy Gold up here at $455 and watch it dive 30 big bucks shortly after?)
needless to say, the Majors which had followed Gold like Pavlov's dogs up to the recent heights will follow it back down..
a break below $430/420 could trigger a major panic liquidation which would tilt the odds for a multi-month correction for the Dollar, and support the theory that the Dollar/Gold is at/near a m/t inflection point..
Sydney 00:43 GMT November 30, 2004
Aussie could fall quite sharply we get a burst of strength in the USD think we need expertise Gecko and Igrok Athens and BC for that just hearing CNBC Ben Pedley analyst from Singapore saying Bond market are pricing in a cut in rates.
Something big is being cooked in the market, I guess. USD/CAD and EUR/USD are both close to session highs, which is unusual, to say the least.
If CAD remains to be a good guide dog, we are soon in for a nice EUR dive
London. 15:08 GMT November 30, 2004
Overvalued AUD and CAD performed strongly recently AUD has appreciated more sharply on a trade-weighted basis, As a result AUD is expensive relative to CAD difficult to justify given Canada's superior macroeconomic fundamentals which include a sizable current account surplus. Both (AUD) and CAD look susceptible to a pullback BCA Research report.
slv sam 15:04 GMT November 30, 2004
weak cad yesterday and today can be a worrying observation for those who are us$ bearish!GT
van Gecko 14:55 GMT November 30, 2004
viktor 14:20.. may be those Men in Black want to collect a few more singers before turning off the stage lights.. or they may want to start December off with a bang, or before Sydney open its 1st December trading week..
"15:43 GMT November 28, 2004
.... with last week's Dollar spike & close down at the extremes of another multi-year low set-up, just think what would happen if those Men in Black were to flood the market with Dollar bids 5 minutes before Sydney open its trading week.."
van Gecko 14:21 GMT November 30, 2004
Atl TJ 14:06..G.day.. usd/cad holding firm while the euro bulls wants to try for the moon.. meanwhile, eur/cad is exhibiting northbound tendencies after flying south with the Goose for the last 6 months.. so should euro goes into a side, down, or dive correction, the Goose should fly..
gl..
gold coast martin..;) cheers
prague viktor 14:20 GMT November 30, 2004
Gecko..thanks a very nice song...but for how long they will sing this song.. there must a pull back maybe not now but from 1,34+++...G/T
gold coast martin 14:12 GMT November 30, 2004
van Gecko 14:03 GMT November 30, 2004
The national anthem for the dollar bears will be the shortest in history....soon to be replaced with bull anthem of "..you aint seen nothing yet.....".and one of the verses says ''..heres something you will never forget...".....bears soon to turn to teddys.....after 13334 level is reached,,,,,,g/t
Atl TJ 14:06 GMT November 30, 2004
van Gecko 13:14 GMT November 30, 2004
the Goose wants to break loose.. Usd/Cad is now a buy for long distance flyers..
Gecko, what am I missing here. I show that the goose has another 150 or so pips just to reach the upper channel line. 3 weeks ago I was thinking dollar correction and couldn't be more wrong. Why now? I am only questioning your statement so that I might learn something here. Not trying to be a jerk.
van Gecko 14:03 GMT November 30, 2004
G.day viktor.. how about those happy Dollar Bears now have a new Anthem to sing.. "American Bye"..
pls see fx Jim Mclean down at 08:50 GMT..:)
prague viktor 13:48 GMT November 30, 2004
van Gecko ..G.day mate! can u give me only 1 reason not to long the USD at this time I cant find....G/L G/T
Ldn 13:37 GMT November 30, 2004
van Gecko great. thanks
van Gecko 13:31 GMT November 30, 2004
Ldn.. lets try the 1.2570's 1st.. looks like Parity for the great Canada geese will have to wait a bit longer now..
Ldn 13:21 GMT November 30, 2004
van Gecko whats your target on the CAD cheers
van Gecko 13:14 GMT November 30, 2004
the Goose wants to break loose.. Usd/Cad is now a buy for long distance flyers..
Bruxville Jim 08:50 GMT November 30, 2004
Anthem of Dollar Bears;)
"American Bye"
A long, long time ago…
I can still remember
How the dollar used to make me smile.
And I knew if I had my chance
I’d sell the currency of France
And, maybe, I’d be happy for awhile.
[..]
I started singin’
Bye-bye, dollar assets good-bye
Sold my Chevy at the levee
‘cause my pension ran dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin’ sake to try
Singin’ this’ll be the day that it died
This’ll be the day that it died.
van Gecko 01:52 GMT November 30, 2004
Sydney.. yep.. great time for BOJ sans & their Men in Black croonies to come in here to give the market a nudge..
Sydney 01:48 GMT November 30, 2004
van Gecko 01:45 I think they are , we seem ripe for a correction and fx what with Korea China Japan lined up to take on the specs along with anyone else in their army. 'The Art of War at its best'
van Gecko 01:45 GMT November 30, 2004
Sydney.. they must be watching the 450 level like a hawk.. taking out the level 1 stops below 449 could be the trigger for a Gold medal size dive..
Sydney 01:22 GMT November 30, 2004
Van Gecko , this bloke agrees with you also
Speculators behind gold push, fundamentals don't warrant rally. Gold's "heavily overextended so I think we're in for some serious consolidation if not a correction soon," says 'The Grandich Letter's' Peter Grandich
van Gecko 01:19 GMT November 30, 2004
Gold has a tendency to fall suddenly & viciously from great heights.. liquidity had taken a nose dive in the recent days after climbing $85 in 6 months & 35 bucks in 4 weeks up to the recent multi-year high.. a near term liquidation correction down to the $430's is now in the cards.. (who wants to be the last big sucker to buy Gold up here at $455 and watch it dive 30 big bucks shortly after?)
needless to say, the Majors which had followed Gold like Pavlov's dogs up to the recent heights will follow it back down..
a break below $430/420 could trigger a major panic liquidation which would tilt the odds for a multi-month correction for the Dollar, and support the theory that the Dollar/Gold is at/near a m/t inflection point..
Sydney 00:43 GMT November 30, 2004
Aussie could fall quite sharply we get a burst of strength in the USD think we need expertise Gecko and Igrok Athens and BC for that just hearing CNBC Ben Pedley analyst from Singapore saying Bond market are pricing in a cut in rates.
Sunday, November 28, 2004
van Gecko 15:43 GMT November 28, 2004
Spotforex NY 14:06.. previous Dollar trend reversals are characterized by sharp & sudden moves at market extremes..
the Dollar's 18 month run up from 1988 came to a sudden end in September/89 with a Usd/Chf secondary breakdown gap of 4 figures after closing up at the previous week's high with a very bullish reversal spike up close.. that gap was finally filled in April/2000, over a decade later..
in July/2001, the 1995 Dollar bull run came to a sudden & un-expected end after an impulsive weekly up spike & closed up near the week's extremes, next week the market open with Usd/Chf gapping down 260 pips.. that gap had never been filled & the Dollar had not looked back since that fateful July 4th weekend..
with last week's Dollar spike & close down at the extremes of another multi-year low set-up, just think what would happen if those Men in Black were to flood the market with Dollar bids 5 minutes before Sydney open its trading week..
but then again with the prevailing fundamentally weak underlying sentiment for the Dollar looking like a well done turkey after last week's big "Thank you vely much for Giving" spike down bar, the above scenario may be inconceivable this time around..
Cheerios for all..
Spotforex NY 14:06 GMT November 28, 2004
van Gecko 03:19
so true.....as this market moves into my second and third phase of intervention, these FCM will change the fill odds into their favor. Again those who are overleveraged will pay a steep, steep price on the first wrong move of 'rate check' rumors and solo intervention.
Friday's chop was only the tip of the iceberg.
van Gecko 03:19 GMT November 28, 2004
an immenient sign of things to come in this wild & wonderful world of FX.. greed & fear exemplified..
re 20:42 GMT November 26, 2004..
"What a session! Well, this was one day's trading that got away from me. There I was riding the eur/usd wave - buying, then selling, buying the selling. Within an 30 minutes I was up 500 pips, and loaded up with a nice sized possy for that major spike down from 3320.
All I had to do was sit tight and watch the pips pour in, but no, greedy f%^$%# idiot that I am adds to my positions, the orders stalled on the FXXCM terminal and didn't get filled until the bottom, the thing bounced back, and bang, I'm in the red."
anatomy of a Euro break down gap at a multi year high which may never be filled again;
when that immenient "the buck stops here" boom is lowered and euro gaps down 1 big figure in a blink of the eye, you can bet that all the working buy on dips & stop orders will be filled at the extreme low of the 1st gap if one is lucky.. (remember that NFP Friday in September?)
and when some big boys begin to panic & start the 1st rush to the exit doors with their multi yard stop orders with no takers, euro will gap down another figure..
as pandemonium sets in with more & more multi yard stop orders starts to pour in, the market could see euro down 5 big figures before the dust settle..
how does one spell 'greed & fear' again?
Spotforex NY 14:06.. previous Dollar trend reversals are characterized by sharp & sudden moves at market extremes..
the Dollar's 18 month run up from 1988 came to a sudden end in September/89 with a Usd/Chf secondary breakdown gap of 4 figures after closing up at the previous week's high with a very bullish reversal spike up close.. that gap was finally filled in April/2000, over a decade later..
in July/2001, the 1995 Dollar bull run came to a sudden & un-expected end after an impulsive weekly up spike & closed up near the week's extremes, next week the market open with Usd/Chf gapping down 260 pips.. that gap had never been filled & the Dollar had not looked back since that fateful July 4th weekend..
with last week's Dollar spike & close down at the extremes of another multi-year low set-up, just think what would happen if those Men in Black were to flood the market with Dollar bids 5 minutes before Sydney open its trading week..
but then again with the prevailing fundamentally weak underlying sentiment for the Dollar looking like a well done turkey after last week's big "Thank you vely much for Giving" spike down bar, the above scenario may be inconceivable this time around..
Cheerios for all..
Spotforex NY 14:06 GMT November 28, 2004
van Gecko 03:19
so true.....as this market moves into my second and third phase of intervention, these FCM will change the fill odds into their favor. Again those who are overleveraged will pay a steep, steep price on the first wrong move of 'rate check' rumors and solo intervention.
Friday's chop was only the tip of the iceberg.
van Gecko 03:19 GMT November 28, 2004
an immenient sign of things to come in this wild & wonderful world of FX.. greed & fear exemplified..
re 20:42 GMT November 26, 2004..
"What a session! Well, this was one day's trading that got away from me. There I was riding the eur/usd wave - buying, then selling, buying the selling. Within an 30 minutes I was up 500 pips, and loaded up with a nice sized possy for that major spike down from 3320.
All I had to do was sit tight and watch the pips pour in, but no, greedy f%^$%# idiot that I am adds to my positions, the orders stalled on the FXXCM terminal and didn't get filled until the bottom, the thing bounced back, and bang, I'm in the red."
anatomy of a Euro break down gap at a multi year high which may never be filled again;
when that immenient "the buck stops here" boom is lowered and euro gaps down 1 big figure in a blink of the eye, you can bet that all the working buy on dips & stop orders will be filled at the extreme low of the 1st gap if one is lucky.. (remember that NFP Friday in September?)
and when some big boys begin to panic & start the 1st rush to the exit doors with their multi yard stop orders with no takers, euro will gap down another figure..
as pandemonium sets in with more & more multi yard stop orders starts to pour in, the market could see euro down 5 big figures before the dust settle..
how does one spell 'greed & fear' again?
Friday, November 26, 2004
van Gecko 10:11 GMT November 26, 2004
sa.. a close below 1.3150 would suggest euro may had seen a blow-off top for the rest of the year.. so instead of the recent one way play from 1.25, December could turn out to be a nice & friendly Jingle Bell month with both camps ringing each other's X'mas bells between the ranges 1.33 <->1.29 -> 1.29<->1.25..
nyc sa 09:44 GMT November 26, 2004
Hey Van Gecko , thnx for reply would be great to see 1.30 today , would u be buying the dips or sell the strength from 1.30?
van Gecko 09:32 GMT November 26, 2004
nyc sa.. once the scramble kicks into high gear plus a little nudge from those Men in Black..hmmm.. how about 1.30...?
today..
B.A. BOCA 09:29 GMT November 26, 2004
KL KL// a friendly tip: enjoy your winnings (it sounds like you made some today) with a nice dinner tonight. it makes no sense to *iss them into the wind...to quote a famous lizard..
GL
nyc sa 09:22 GMT November 26, 2004
Van Gecko ,how low u think euro can retrace after this huge move over the last month ? I understood u to say it will lose 10 big figures ,right ?
van Gecko 09:18 GMT November 26, 2004
acrophobia will kick in high gear below 1.3150..
Gaza Ibiza 08:35 GMT November 26, 2004
Rumors of SNB intervention!
LDN LDN 08:30 GMT November 26, 2004
Trader says early round of profit taking is giving the dollar bounce. US investment bank and large Swiss bank have been heavy sellers of EUR/USD above 1.33, UK clearer sold cable above 1.90 and several good names have been buying USD/CHF. seems some are clearing their books.
van Gecko 08:09 GMT November 26, 2004
looks like the "Buck Stops Here" order had been given..
some front running Dollar Bear Brigade members about to say "Thanks 4 Giving" to those Men in Black..
cheerios..
van Gecko 01:14 GMT November 26, 2004
Geneva.. vely good..:) see you again in a few years with another 70 figures plus carry interest of DollarChf locked up in your Swiss bank account..
Cheerios..
Geneva 01:00 GMT November 26, 2004
Thx all. Before going to take a sleep. JUST WATCH THAT DOLLAR INDEX IS AT DOUBLE BOTTOM OF 1995. Good night.
Brisbane L 00:56 GMT November 26, 2004
Geneva hi there I too remember you , they didnt half give you a lot of stick if I recall , but your laughing all the way to the bank now :-)
shanghai bc 00:54 GMT November 26, 2004
GENEVA --Long time no see..Nice to see you are fine and making great calls too..Hope you visit here more often from now on.
Geneva 00:50 GMT November 26, 2004
shanghai bc 00:47 GMT November 26, 2004
Yes its me, The one that bought euros arounds 0.90 t0 0.80.
And sell them big time today.
shanghai bc 00:47 GMT November 26, 2004
GENEVA -- Are you the same Geneva ,the jeweller,who used to post here some years ago please?.
Geneva 00:43 GMT November 26, 2004
You might start with option strategy, its not so easy to pick a top. My guess is that we will top between here
to 1.3475. And then fall very hard. WE SHOULD CORRECT THE ALL MOVE FROM 0.82 TO HERE........ Thats a lot. And trust me that the people that sell dollars and buy euros dont know why thay do it , the foloow the mass.
Geneva 00:29 GMT November 26, 2004
No 1.35 and no 1.40, This is the biggest trap in the history
of the forex market. and it will finish deadly and blody.
With today net euro bulls , it will turn south and HARD!!!!.
Be carfull.
London 19:11 GMT November 25, 2004
ECB ready to intervene if needed-monetary sources
Thu Nov 25, 2004 11:02 AM ET
By Stella Dawson, Chief ECB Correspondent
FRANKFURT, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Don't count the European Central Bank out when it comes to currency market intervention.
Discussions with euro zone monetary officials over the past week have shown that the ECB is watching the euro's climb extremely closely and would welcome an opportunity to put some two-way risk back into a market that now sees selling U.S. dollars as a one-way route to riches.
But the ECB would choose its timing very carefully, only jumping when euro buyers are looking overstretched and the market is ready for a turn, euro zone central banking and finance ministry officials told Reuters.
"ECB intervention is likely at some stage, but it has to take the market by surprise in order to be effective," one financial policymaker said.
The ECB would pursue "tactical" intervention, limited and well timed to deter the market from believing that dollar selling is a one-way bet, he said.
READY TO POUNCE
But for markets to be complacent would be risky.
Indeed, speculation has circulated in the currency market this week over whether the ECB might intervene over the next 36 hours at Thanksgiving.
Instead the successful central bank onslaught must ensure sure traders lose money. That requires lying quietly in wait and then pouncing when the time is right to consolidate an underlying market trend.
That may be what's happening now.
"This radio silence tells me the ECB is ready and waiting -- they know how to inflict damage," said Eric Chaney, head of European economic research at Morgan Stanley.
sa.. a close below 1.3150 would suggest euro may had seen a blow-off top for the rest of the year.. so instead of the recent one way play from 1.25, December could turn out to be a nice & friendly Jingle Bell month with both camps ringing each other's X'mas bells between the ranges 1.33 <->1.29 -> 1.29<->1.25..
nyc sa 09:44 GMT November 26, 2004
Hey Van Gecko , thnx for reply would be great to see 1.30 today , would u be buying the dips or sell the strength from 1.30?
van Gecko 09:32 GMT November 26, 2004
nyc sa.. once the scramble kicks into high gear plus a little nudge from those Men in Black..hmmm.. how about 1.30...?
today..
B.A. BOCA 09:29 GMT November 26, 2004
KL KL// a friendly tip: enjoy your winnings (it sounds like you made some today) with a nice dinner tonight. it makes no sense to *iss them into the wind...to quote a famous lizard..
GL
nyc sa 09:22 GMT November 26, 2004
Van Gecko ,how low u think euro can retrace after this huge move over the last month ? I understood u to say it will lose 10 big figures ,right ?
van Gecko 09:18 GMT November 26, 2004
acrophobia will kick in high gear below 1.3150..
Gaza Ibiza 08:35 GMT November 26, 2004
Rumors of SNB intervention!
LDN LDN 08:30 GMT November 26, 2004
Trader says early round of profit taking is giving the dollar bounce. US investment bank and large Swiss bank have been heavy sellers of EUR/USD above 1.33, UK clearer sold cable above 1.90 and several good names have been buying USD/CHF. seems some are clearing their books.
van Gecko 08:09 GMT November 26, 2004
looks like the "Buck Stops Here" order had been given..
some front running Dollar Bear Brigade members about to say "Thanks 4 Giving" to those Men in Black..
cheerios..
van Gecko 01:14 GMT November 26, 2004
Geneva.. vely good..:) see you again in a few years with another 70 figures plus carry interest of DollarChf locked up in your Swiss bank account..
Cheerios..
Geneva 01:00 GMT November 26, 2004
Thx all. Before going to take a sleep. JUST WATCH THAT DOLLAR INDEX IS AT DOUBLE BOTTOM OF 1995. Good night.
Brisbane L 00:56 GMT November 26, 2004
Geneva hi there I too remember you , they didnt half give you a lot of stick if I recall , but your laughing all the way to the bank now :-)
shanghai bc 00:54 GMT November 26, 2004
GENEVA --Long time no see..Nice to see you are fine and making great calls too..Hope you visit here more often from now on.
Geneva 00:50 GMT November 26, 2004
shanghai bc 00:47 GMT November 26, 2004
Yes its me, The one that bought euros arounds 0.90 t0 0.80.
And sell them big time today.
shanghai bc 00:47 GMT November 26, 2004
GENEVA -- Are you the same Geneva ,the jeweller,who used to post here some years ago please?.
Geneva 00:43 GMT November 26, 2004
You might start with option strategy, its not so easy to pick a top. My guess is that we will top between here
to 1.3475. And then fall very hard. WE SHOULD CORRECT THE ALL MOVE FROM 0.82 TO HERE........ Thats a lot. And trust me that the people that sell dollars and buy euros dont know why thay do it , the foloow the mass.
Geneva 00:29 GMT November 26, 2004
No 1.35 and no 1.40, This is the biggest trap in the history
of the forex market. and it will finish deadly and blody.
With today net euro bulls , it will turn south and HARD!!!!.
Be carfull.
London 19:11 GMT November 25, 2004
ECB ready to intervene if needed-monetary sources
Thu Nov 25, 2004 11:02 AM ET
By Stella Dawson, Chief ECB Correspondent
FRANKFURT, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Don't count the European Central Bank out when it comes to currency market intervention.
Discussions with euro zone monetary officials over the past week have shown that the ECB is watching the euro's climb extremely closely and would welcome an opportunity to put some two-way risk back into a market that now sees selling U.S. dollars as a one-way route to riches.
But the ECB would choose its timing very carefully, only jumping when euro buyers are looking overstretched and the market is ready for a turn, euro zone central banking and finance ministry officials told Reuters.
"ECB intervention is likely at some stage, but it has to take the market by surprise in order to be effective," one financial policymaker said.
The ECB would pursue "tactical" intervention, limited and well timed to deter the market from believing that dollar selling is a one-way bet, he said.
READY TO POUNCE
But for markets to be complacent would be risky.
Indeed, speculation has circulated in the currency market this week over whether the ECB might intervene over the next 36 hours at Thanksgiving.
Instead the successful central bank onslaught must ensure sure traders lose money. That requires lying quietly in wait and then pouncing when the time is right to consolidate an underlying market trend.
That may be what's happening now.
"This radio silence tells me the ECB is ready and waiting -- they know how to inflict damage," said Eric Chaney, head of European economic research at Morgan Stanley.
Thursday, November 25, 2004
van Gecko 15:28 GMT November 25, 2004
hello Malaga boqueron.. how are you? its nice to see a born again? EUUS bull..
yea.. its certainly looking that way so far.. what a sorry rag tag bunch!
happy Thanksgiving..
:)
Malaga boqueron 15:12 GMT November 25, 2004
van Gecko 14:39 GMT re Dollar Bear Brigade vs. Men in Black
The Men in Black seem to be a rag tag bunch unable or unwilling to put up any sort of resistance, short of a few verbal attacks. I'm more worried about the Dollar Bear Brigade leading us to the front, and then leaving us there to fend for ourselves, or worse yet, turning against us.
van Gecko 14:39 GMT November 25, 2004
gvm.. nah, after so many years in this biz you should know anything is possible in this wild & wonderful cesspool..:)
it would certainly make smart sense & much easier for the 'Dollar Bear Brigade' with their collective power to move the Euro back down 10 figures from here then to butt head & fight with those Men in Black for another 8 figures up to 1.40..
sydney gvm 14:23 GMT November 25, 2004
Gecko - dont cha think we need a bit of a panic $ selloff first? - really this trend has been quite orderly - need a stupid day before we get a smart day IMHO
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 25, 2004
Spotforex.. its conceivable for those savvy 'Dollar Bear Brigade' after running up the Euro 10 big figures from 1.22 to lock in their profits here & turn themselve into a bunch of born again 'Dollar Bull Brigade' & run the Euro back down to 1.22 just when everybody & their mothers are getting caught up with this latest Dollar bear hysteria..
that will certainly please those disgruntled Men in Black, leave all the 1.35/40 bulls biting the dust & save themselve the trouble of having to constantly looking over their shouldlers in fear of intervention..:) no?
rocco.. my pleasure, please contact boss Jay..
Spotforex NY 13:47 GMT November 25, 2004
Hi Zorro!!!!
One of the Swiss Banks objective is 1.4000
I do not see any coordinated intervention until 1.45
Last Nov - the euro stated on a 12 big fig climb...the same is in store for this year??????
happy hunting
spot
Sofia rocco 13:32 GMT November 25, 2004
Gecko - thank u. Can I get your e-mail?
van Gecko 13:10 GMT November 25, 2004
rocco 11:57.. with Eur/Cad consolidating for the last few weeks after flying south in unision with the Goose since June could provide some reliefs for DollarCad.. the key to more pain or some pleasure for the Goose here is the raging Euro.. a straight up moon shot to 1.35/1.40 will prolong the pain for the Gooser bulls.. while a near term corrective consolidation by the Euro along with some retracement from Eur/Cad should see some kind of bounce by Usd/Cad..
gl..
Sofia rocco 11:57 GMT November 25, 2004
Gecko - pls your view for usdcad. Any retracement before 1.13? :). TIA
van Gecko 10:02 GMT November 25, 2004
from a historical prespective, anytime the Dollar had penetrated Dollar Index 85-80 after a Long term down trend offers very good odd for a potential sharp long to medium term trend change..
on each of the past 4 L/T trend reversals, the Dollar climbed at least 1800 basis points over the subsequent L/M/T periods.. the 1995-2001 L/T up trend reversed near index 80..
in 1988 the Dollar reversed the 4000 basis point L/T downtrend after the '85 Plaza accord near index 85.. it is now at index 82 after declining 4000 basis points for the last 4 years..fwiw..
SGP SP 07:23 GMT November 25, 2004
Good afternoon Gecko,
It is really nice to see your regular posts....may I request for your e-mail addy thru Jay? Thanks
gl & gt
van Gecko 07:11 GMT November 25, 2004
re. intervention speculations, imo any m/t player who is not in the know on the latest intentions of the 'Dollar Bear Brigade' should stay well clear of this Dollar Beer party at this late stage unless you are still running possies from up at higher grounds.. its nice to cheer & holler for a year end 1.35/1.40 targets with the herds, but the psychological impact in holding any dollar bags from down here while the Dollar undergo an immenient few precentage correction (or an inconceivable trend reversal) could be devastating on the trading mind..
that said, the near term 'lips seal/hands off' policy from those Men in Black may be a tactic designed to lure as many of the Dollar Bear Brigade memebers into a false sense of complacency before the 'buck stops here boom' is lower on the Bear Brigades..
with this week's spike from 1.30, the euro is forming a classic 3 day 'spike & dive' exhaustion pattern at the end of a 10 figure rise from 1.22..
Cheerios..
hello Malaga boqueron.. how are you? its nice to see a born again? EUUS bull..
yea.. its certainly looking that way so far.. what a sorry rag tag bunch!
happy Thanksgiving..
:)
Malaga boqueron 15:12 GMT November 25, 2004
van Gecko 14:39 GMT re Dollar Bear Brigade vs. Men in Black
The Men in Black seem to be a rag tag bunch unable or unwilling to put up any sort of resistance, short of a few verbal attacks. I'm more worried about the Dollar Bear Brigade leading us to the front, and then leaving us there to fend for ourselves, or worse yet, turning against us.
van Gecko 14:39 GMT November 25, 2004
gvm.. nah, after so many years in this biz you should know anything is possible in this wild & wonderful cesspool..:)
it would certainly make smart sense & much easier for the 'Dollar Bear Brigade' with their collective power to move the Euro back down 10 figures from here then to butt head & fight with those Men in Black for another 8 figures up to 1.40..
sydney gvm 14:23 GMT November 25, 2004
Gecko - dont cha think we need a bit of a panic $ selloff first? - really this trend has been quite orderly - need a stupid day before we get a smart day IMHO
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 25, 2004
Spotforex.. its conceivable for those savvy 'Dollar Bear Brigade' after running up the Euro 10 big figures from 1.22 to lock in their profits here & turn themselve into a bunch of born again 'Dollar Bull Brigade' & run the Euro back down to 1.22 just when everybody & their mothers are getting caught up with this latest Dollar bear hysteria..
that will certainly please those disgruntled Men in Black, leave all the 1.35/40 bulls biting the dust & save themselve the trouble of having to constantly looking over their shouldlers in fear of intervention..:) no?
rocco.. my pleasure, please contact boss Jay..
Spotforex NY 13:47 GMT November 25, 2004
Hi Zorro!!!!
One of the Swiss Banks objective is 1.4000
I do not see any coordinated intervention until 1.45
Last Nov - the euro stated on a 12 big fig climb...the same is in store for this year??????
happy hunting
spot
Sofia rocco 13:32 GMT November 25, 2004
Gecko - thank u. Can I get your e-mail?
van Gecko 13:10 GMT November 25, 2004
rocco 11:57.. with Eur/Cad consolidating for the last few weeks after flying south in unision with the Goose since June could provide some reliefs for DollarCad.. the key to more pain or some pleasure for the Goose here is the raging Euro.. a straight up moon shot to 1.35/1.40 will prolong the pain for the Gooser bulls.. while a near term corrective consolidation by the Euro along with some retracement from Eur/Cad should see some kind of bounce by Usd/Cad..
gl..
Sofia rocco 11:57 GMT November 25, 2004
Gecko - pls your view for usdcad. Any retracement before 1.13? :). TIA
van Gecko 10:02 GMT November 25, 2004
from a historical prespective, anytime the Dollar had penetrated Dollar Index 85-80 after a Long term down trend offers very good odd for a potential sharp long to medium term trend change..
on each of the past 4 L/T trend reversals, the Dollar climbed at least 1800 basis points over the subsequent L/M/T periods.. the 1995-2001 L/T up trend reversed near index 80..
in 1988 the Dollar reversed the 4000 basis point L/T downtrend after the '85 Plaza accord near index 85.. it is now at index 82 after declining 4000 basis points for the last 4 years..fwiw..
SGP SP 07:23 GMT November 25, 2004
Good afternoon Gecko,
It is really nice to see your regular posts....may I request for your e-mail addy thru Jay? Thanks
gl & gt
van Gecko 07:11 GMT November 25, 2004
re. intervention speculations, imo any m/t player who is not in the know on the latest intentions of the 'Dollar Bear Brigade' should stay well clear of this Dollar Beer party at this late stage unless you are still running possies from up at higher grounds.. its nice to cheer & holler for a year end 1.35/1.40 targets with the herds, but the psychological impact in holding any dollar bags from down here while the Dollar undergo an immenient few precentage correction (or an inconceivable trend reversal) could be devastating on the trading mind..
that said, the near term 'lips seal/hands off' policy from those Men in Black may be a tactic designed to lure as many of the Dollar Bear Brigade memebers into a false sense of complacency before the 'buck stops here boom' is lower on the Bear Brigades..
with this week's spike from 1.30, the euro is forming a classic 3 day 'spike & dive' exhaustion pattern at the end of a 10 figure rise from 1.22..
Cheerios..
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
van Gecko 03:23 GMT November 25, 2004
London.. indeed.. those banks should take note that the bond market is not in agreement with the Dollar's dive over the last month.. its either the dog is running far ahead the master, or the dog is just wagging its speculative tail..
melbourne farmacia 23:09 good 1.32 year end projection.. well done..
Ldn pm 12:18.. sorry, i have no idea.. not into day trading noise swings inside a consolidation range or trending channel..
gl..
London 02:08 GMT November 25, 2004
van Gecko this is what my feelings are , we get constant banks across the newswires coming up with a new reason to flog the USD lets hope they ring the bell loud enough when they start taking profit
van Gecko 02:00 GMT November 25, 2004
London. 22:33.. its rare for the Gold market to move $25/30 in any 4 week period without making at least a $10 retracement.. it had moved up $33 since the start of the month to the present $450 psychological level..
while euro had spiked up since monday, Gold's momentum had stalled for the last 3 days.. right now, i would image those goldbugs who had brought above $435 are looking over each others shoulder with half cocked eyes.. a 1/2 session close below $445 could trigger a corrective liquidation to lock in some recent profits before they are h'issed into the wind..
cheerios..
melbourne farmacia 23:09 GMT November 24, 2004
Eur/Usd – Medium term target is upon us based on fib projections… need to see market’s reaction around this pivot over the next few days.
melbourne farmacia 03:50 GMT August 20, 2004
"ran some euro figures last week....so take your pick going into year end: over 1.2480 = 1.3203 or under 1.1758 = 1.1311..." GT
London. 22:33 GMT November 24, 2004
Gold is a surprise , having not been able to take out $450 and above . would have thought it too with the dollar weakness should have seen higher levels or is this speculative only not real money at work. Anyone got view on it
Ldn pm 12:18 GMT November 24, 2004
I have a question for van Gecko (or anyone in the know) on $/Cad -
I am told 25th of each month is oil day when the Canadian oil co's sell their Usd receipts for Cad. Do you know whether the oil companies have the flexibility to trade ahead of this date or is it a fixed date trade? If it is the latter surely it is open to heavy manipulation ? Would appreciate your thoughts/help on this matter.....many thanks in advance
London.. indeed.. those banks should take note that the bond market is not in agreement with the Dollar's dive over the last month.. its either the dog is running far ahead the master, or the dog is just wagging its speculative tail..
melbourne farmacia 23:09 good 1.32 year end projection.. well done..
Ldn pm 12:18.. sorry, i have no idea.. not into day trading noise swings inside a consolidation range or trending channel..
gl..
London 02:08 GMT November 25, 2004
van Gecko this is what my feelings are , we get constant banks across the newswires coming up with a new reason to flog the USD lets hope they ring the bell loud enough when they start taking profit
van Gecko 02:00 GMT November 25, 2004
London. 22:33.. its rare for the Gold market to move $25/30 in any 4 week period without making at least a $10 retracement.. it had moved up $33 since the start of the month to the present $450 psychological level..
while euro had spiked up since monday, Gold's momentum had stalled for the last 3 days.. right now, i would image those goldbugs who had brought above $435 are looking over each others shoulder with half cocked eyes.. a 1/2 session close below $445 could trigger a corrective liquidation to lock in some recent profits before they are h'issed into the wind..
cheerios..
melbourne farmacia 23:09 GMT November 24, 2004
Eur/Usd – Medium term target is upon us based on fib projections… need to see market’s reaction around this pivot over the next few days.
melbourne farmacia 03:50 GMT August 20, 2004
"ran some euro figures last week....so take your pick going into year end: over 1.2480 = 1.3203 or under 1.1758 = 1.1311..." GT
London. 22:33 GMT November 24, 2004
Gold is a surprise , having not been able to take out $450 and above . would have thought it too with the dollar weakness should have seen higher levels or is this speculative only not real money at work. Anyone got view on it
Ldn pm 12:18 GMT November 24, 2004
I have a question for van Gecko (or anyone in the know) on $/Cad -
I am told 25th of each month is oil day when the Canadian oil co's sell their Usd receipts for Cad. Do you know whether the oil companies have the flexibility to trade ahead of this date or is it a fixed date trade? If it is the latter surely it is open to heavy manipulation ? Would appreciate your thoughts/help on this matter.....many thanks in advance
Tuesday, November 23, 2004
Ldn 23:36 GMT November 23, 2004
AUD being marked up, rather than traded up, in reaction to the broader based move in the Euro/USD towards key barrier of 1.31. Real money has been pushed out of the icture. They are unwilling to chase the markets higher, leaving bids well below the market at 7750. If the rally continues it will do so without the support of longer term investors ! 4CAST -FX
Syd 19:17 GMT November 23, 2004
Analysts believe that EUR/USD is far more overvalued than USD/JPY is undervalued
There is one thing to consider, in the past intervention has been a battle of whits, however to have the tactics of lacking in concern can lull the spec traders into a false sense of security until they are loaded over their head in short Dollars agains everything.
jkt-aye 14:45 GMT November 23, 2004
EUR ... from my pivot model, there is a sign that within this week target on up move is 1.3111. If we can't see this level this week, suggest to find Gecko/Valdez/Qindex car and follow where it goes. imo. Happy hunting.
van Gecko 14:00 GMT November 23, 2004
2 weeks after pushing above the 1.2930 euro all time high & its still only 130 pips above this high water marker.. a market that is suppose to be blasting up to 1.35 shouldn't be stay glued to a major level for weeks.. a close below 1.2950 this week could spoil the Thanksgiving turkey dinner appetite for some top heavy overloaded bulls..
cheerios..
AUD being marked up, rather than traded up, in reaction to the broader based move in the Euro/USD towards key barrier of 1.31. Real money has been pushed out of the icture. They are unwilling to chase the markets higher, leaving bids well below the market at 7750. If the rally continues it will do so without the support of longer term investors ! 4CAST -FX
Syd 19:17 GMT November 23, 2004
Analysts believe that EUR/USD is far more overvalued than USD/JPY is undervalued
There is one thing to consider, in the past intervention has been a battle of whits, however to have the tactics of lacking in concern can lull the spec traders into a false sense of security until they are loaded over their head in short Dollars agains everything.
jkt-aye 14:45 GMT November 23, 2004
EUR ... from my pivot model, there is a sign that within this week target on up move is 1.3111. If we can't see this level this week, suggest to find Gecko/Valdez/Qindex car and follow where it goes. imo. Happy hunting.
van Gecko 14:00 GMT November 23, 2004
2 weeks after pushing above the 1.2930 euro all time high & its still only 130 pips above this high water marker.. a market that is suppose to be blasting up to 1.35 shouldn't be stay glued to a major level for weeks.. a close below 1.2950 this week could spoil the Thanksgiving turkey dinner appetite for some top heavy overloaded bulls..
cheerios..
Friday, November 19, 2004
London. 16:20 GMT November 19, 2004
van Gecko 16:02 thanks, take notice of your calls as they are spot on , maket as you say tends to lag a little but recall your Canadian one way back when it was in the high 25-30s
SanFrancisco TG 16:19 GMT November 19, 2004
Van Gecko - Surely your attention must be toward what you must do, but I for one do hope you will post more often at some point as you once did. Perhaps in time you will consider it a personal contribution and not pay attention to the negative elements. :)
Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:13 GMT November 19, 2004
Looks like another Friday and somebody forgot to close the gates on the bulls in the eur/usd pair again. More than a couple of virgin traders were sacrificed this time around but what is new. The usual food fight around here on Fridays is not uncommon either. Squaring at the end of the week and G20 meeting will probably keep this pair at bay for now resistance remains the same and support now seen at 2990-3000. A late run at the top would not surprise me either though. So a close for the day under support will go a long way for the bears we will see what develops from here. It is still buy on dips even with the indicators on O/B area on the daily charts IMO. Price action must prove that this is the beginning of the correction first before backing off the bull run IMO.
Gecko hope you are doing well and thanks for the visit here hope it is more often but I would understand if you don’t (Fools rush in) LOL good one. I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. GL GT
van Gecko 16:02 GMT November 19, 2004
London.. yep.. 2 weeks overdue.. it doesn't take much to get the Snowballs rolling down the hill once acrophobia sets in..
take a look at waterfalls during the weeks of Jan/11 & Feb/15th..
London. 15:49 GMT November 19, 2004
Van Gecko , just on more thing , do you see market at these levels overstretched and due for a correction, even after the performance today with Greenspan and co.. appreciate your views
van Gecko 14:39 GMT November 19, 2004
London.. the market seems to be putting the squeeze on those inscrutable sans here.. should the Boss start giving out firing orders to his trigger happy sumo warriors, 1.2825 is within the weekly ATR in my 11:37 scenario..
London. 14:26 GMT November 19, 2004
van Gecko do you think we can get 128.50 s/t Euro this rally on Euro doesnt seem to have legs or feet
van Gecko 13:17 GMT November 19, 2004
valdez.. the 95 Dollar Index low was around 80.. but there's no hard & fast rule that the Dollar must get there to complete a '10 year cycle'.. yes?
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:40 GMT November 19, 2004
Here's a thought for the pros to respond to:
Since USD is the target of concern, intervention threats etc. and since both JPY and EUR are in the works for intervention (we think), it seems like trading USD crosses with those two is tripple threat...USD can be manipulated by BOTH BOJ and ECB..a cork in the ocean. Whereas Swissy involves only one volitile..the USD. Bottom line, it would seem therefore less risky to trade Swissy. Also, since 10year low on Swissy was 1.1100 back I think in 1996, then if the 10 year cycle will repeat fully, we've got some 500 pips to go whereas with €/$ we really don't know with this pair since the pair is much less than 10 years old. Follow me here? What think ye pros & gurus. Food for thought, eh?
van Gecko 11:37 GMT November 19, 2004
London..iw.. the euro weekly ATR for the last few months is around 250 pips.. we had only seen a 160 range this week.. so, the market will either blast through 1.3075 as it is trying to do now or could reverse all the way down to 1.2825.. guess some 'investors' will hum "Fools Rush In" after this week..
London. 11:21 GMT November 19, 2004
Friday is a critical day for EUR bulls, says Merrill Lynch. A daily close in EUR/USD above 1.30 is needed to ease bearish risks, a close below 1.2950 would be damaging. Intra-day tone is positive, but the close should dictate positioning into next week
Helsinki iw 11:17 GMT November 19, 2004
EUR/USD daily volatility is probably close to that 42 bps, so it doesn´t really matter for investors. Basically interest rates are the same across the Atlantic.
van Gecko 10:10 GMT November 19, 2004
the once mighty greenbuck began its serious decend from heaven with a 6 months 1700 basis point dive in 2002.. but since then, it had not fallen for more then 9 weeks without doing a dead cat bounce of at least 300 basis points.. it had been diving for the last 12 weeks without any significant bounces..
so, after having lost 3800 basis points over the last 4 years is this latest Dollar blast up over 1.29 Euro the green flag for the poor Buck to embark on another 6 months 1700 basis point dive ?
back in May when the poor Euro was down at 1.18 with the US Equities falling & Crude Oil rising, some 'Euro/$ Bottom Feeder Club' members were humming Johnny Mercer & Rube Bloom's classic "Fools rush in" lyrics in the shower..
now 6 month later, the scenario had changed.. the mighty Euro is up at 1.30, US Equities are rising, & Crude oil is falling, but Mercer & Bloom is still singing their "Fools Rush In" classic in perpetuality..
interesting times indeed..
Sydney 21:17 GMT November 18, 2004
With $USD at or near multiyear lows against the Canadian and Australian dollars and the Swiss franc. as Van Gecko says many of the medium term players wouldnt consider buying at these levels
London. 16:53 GMT November 17, 2004
Dollar fall could be plausible if the economy was sinking , but its not the EU is , therefore the Administration is manipulating it until they are ready to say enough, which I would imagine for this run is not too far away , only due to the pressure from around the world which will be intense at the weekend, so wouldnt be surprised the next two days we have Van Gecko's dollar recovery coming into the weekend letting Snow off the hook
van Gecko 16:02 thanks, take notice of your calls as they are spot on , maket as you say tends to lag a little but recall your Canadian one way back when it was in the high 25-30s
SanFrancisco TG 16:19 GMT November 19, 2004
Van Gecko - Surely your attention must be toward what you must do, but I for one do hope you will post more often at some point as you once did. Perhaps in time you will consider it a personal contribution and not pay attention to the negative elements. :)
Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:13 GMT November 19, 2004
Looks like another Friday and somebody forgot to close the gates on the bulls in the eur/usd pair again. More than a couple of virgin traders were sacrificed this time around but what is new. The usual food fight around here on Fridays is not uncommon either. Squaring at the end of the week and G20 meeting will probably keep this pair at bay for now resistance remains the same and support now seen at 2990-3000. A late run at the top would not surprise me either though. So a close for the day under support will go a long way for the bears we will see what develops from here. It is still buy on dips even with the indicators on O/B area on the daily charts IMO. Price action must prove that this is the beginning of the correction first before backing off the bull run IMO.
Gecko hope you are doing well and thanks for the visit here hope it is more often but I would understand if you don’t (Fools rush in) LOL good one. I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. GL GT
van Gecko 16:02 GMT November 19, 2004
London.. yep.. 2 weeks overdue.. it doesn't take much to get the Snowballs rolling down the hill once acrophobia sets in..
take a look at waterfalls during the weeks of Jan/11 & Feb/15th..
London. 15:49 GMT November 19, 2004
Van Gecko , just on more thing , do you see market at these levels overstretched and due for a correction, even after the performance today with Greenspan and co.. appreciate your views
van Gecko 14:39 GMT November 19, 2004
London.. the market seems to be putting the squeeze on those inscrutable sans here.. should the Boss start giving out firing orders to his trigger happy sumo warriors, 1.2825 is within the weekly ATR in my 11:37 scenario..
London. 14:26 GMT November 19, 2004
van Gecko do you think we can get 128.50 s/t Euro this rally on Euro doesnt seem to have legs or feet
van Gecko 13:17 GMT November 19, 2004
valdez.. the 95 Dollar Index low was around 80.. but there's no hard & fast rule that the Dollar must get there to complete a '10 year cycle'.. yes?
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:40 GMT November 19, 2004
Here's a thought for the pros to respond to:
Since USD is the target of concern, intervention threats etc. and since both JPY and EUR are in the works for intervention (we think), it seems like trading USD crosses with those two is tripple threat...USD can be manipulated by BOTH BOJ and ECB..a cork in the ocean. Whereas Swissy involves only one volitile..the USD. Bottom line, it would seem therefore less risky to trade Swissy. Also, since 10year low on Swissy was 1.1100 back I think in 1996, then if the 10 year cycle will repeat fully, we've got some 500 pips to go whereas with €/$ we really don't know with this pair since the pair is much less than 10 years old. Follow me here? What think ye pros & gurus. Food for thought, eh?
van Gecko 11:37 GMT November 19, 2004
London..iw.. the euro weekly ATR for the last few months is around 250 pips.. we had only seen a 160 range this week.. so, the market will either blast through 1.3075 as it is trying to do now or could reverse all the way down to 1.2825.. guess some 'investors' will hum "Fools Rush In" after this week..
London. 11:21 GMT November 19, 2004
Friday is a critical day for EUR bulls, says Merrill Lynch. A daily close in EUR/USD above 1.30 is needed to ease bearish risks, a close below 1.2950 would be damaging. Intra-day tone is positive, but the close should dictate positioning into next week
Helsinki iw 11:17 GMT November 19, 2004
EUR/USD daily volatility is probably close to that 42 bps, so it doesn´t really matter for investors. Basically interest rates are the same across the Atlantic.
van Gecko 10:10 GMT November 19, 2004
the once mighty greenbuck began its serious decend from heaven with a 6 months 1700 basis point dive in 2002.. but since then, it had not fallen for more then 9 weeks without doing a dead cat bounce of at least 300 basis points.. it had been diving for the last 12 weeks without any significant bounces..
so, after having lost 3800 basis points over the last 4 years is this latest Dollar blast up over 1.29 Euro the green flag for the poor Buck to embark on another 6 months 1700 basis point dive ?
back in May when the poor Euro was down at 1.18 with the US Equities falling & Crude Oil rising, some 'Euro/$ Bottom Feeder Club' members were humming Johnny Mercer & Rube Bloom's classic "Fools rush in" lyrics in the shower..
now 6 month later, the scenario had changed.. the mighty Euro is up at 1.30, US Equities are rising, & Crude oil is falling, but Mercer & Bloom is still singing their "Fools Rush In" classic in perpetuality..
interesting times indeed..
Sydney 21:17 GMT November 18, 2004
With $USD at or near multiyear lows against the Canadian and Australian dollars and the Swiss franc. as Van Gecko says many of the medium term players wouldnt consider buying at these levels
London. 16:53 GMT November 17, 2004
Dollar fall could be plausible if the economy was sinking , but its not the EU is , therefore the Administration is manipulating it until they are ready to say enough, which I would imagine for this run is not too far away , only due to the pressure from around the world which will be intense at the weekend, so wouldnt be surprised the next two days we have Van Gecko's dollar recovery coming into the weekend letting Snow off the hook
Wednesday, November 17, 2004
Athens 15:25 GMT November 17, 2004
A general comment I posted on the political forum earlier today, which new traders may find it useful as reference (old guns can skip it as it is well known history):
Without saying that next year EUR/$ can't trade at 1.35 or 1.40, I think we must keep things in perspective. I wrote on Tuesday on TT that $/DEM lost 62% of its value when it hit 1.34 from 3.48 in 1985. However, during the first 3-4 years we had a very steep decline from 3.48 to 1.56which was a 52% devaluation. The rest of the move took much longer and the absolute bottom was seen in 1995 i.e. 10 years after the start of the decline and at that point we had a 62% devaluation. Coming now to the present picture, EUR/$ has already appreviated by almost 58% in 4 years. I am not implying that we need another 6 years but even here at this point the USD has lost from its best levels seen in 2000 almost what had lost in 10 years back then. This may not be a trading idea, but at least calls for caution when setting targets in levels and time.
van Gecko 14:36 GMT November 17, 2004
valdez.. imo that all moves are not created equal & can't be treated as equal..
those prior 1000 pip moves which you noted all occured near the beginning and at the mid point of the run up from 2002.. and in all cases they involve taking out some previously traversed resistances by the euro decending from its 1999 launched.. this time however, the recent 8 figure run up with euro taking out the previously non-traversed 1.29 multi-year cap in one shot (1.2850 was the old 1996 synthetic high) at/near a maturing multi-year trend should be viewed with caution by prudent m/t players..
Stockholm AGuy 13:44.. no problem.. i understand what you was referring to after a 2nd read..
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:45 GMT November 17, 2004
van Gecko 13:20 GMT November 17, 2004
1. ...while a straight up overshoot to 1.32 level can't be rule out, its highly unlikely without some kind of support from m/t money players..
2. ..so, any retracements from up here as long the 1.26 level is not violated on a weekly basis would be quite healthy for the euro & help to keep the bull run..
1. Respectfully, I didn't say nor imply a "straight up overshoot to 1.32.." Anyone realizes of course it'll have dips-retraces but I wouldn't say all the way to 1.23 as some here are hoping, & no retrace more than a 150-200 pips based on chart history from 2002.
2. But you will note 5 former straight up charges since 2002 in the 3 year chart, usually displaying one small retrace usually on the big 1000 pip moves. This move from 1.22 could be that very type of pattern, you have to admit, since it's happend 5 times in two years already. And yes, a nice retrace would be healthy to proceed past 1.32, I realize that and want to see it badly. This whole move "started" (matter of opinion) at 1.2250. Former upmoves involved from 1000 to 1500 pips. Let's say we're are at 1.3050 nowish. So this move sofar is 1.3050-1.2250=800 pips. As you see, it lacks between 200 - 700 pips of "maturing" into a typical big chart move for this pair. Right? So that's why 1.32 is in my sights. And beyond. It's just my model.
Van Gecko, I'll ignore as most here Stockholm aguy's usual arrogance, hope you do the same. I'm preparing an entry in Help Forum just for him..ready in 15-20 minutes, to avoid aguy-valdez/gecko tennis here on FF.Thanks for your critique amigo.
Stockholm AGuy 13:44 GMT November 17, 2004
van Gecko 13:20 GMT:
I seem to owe you an apology; apparently I attributed some comments to you which were actually written by somebody else (thought he was quoting you). Sorry about that.
Ldn 13:29 GMT November 17, 2004
van Gecko 13:20 yes it does and agree
van Gecko 13:20 GMT November 17, 2004
valdez.. thanks for your views amigo, funnymentals makes my head spin as i live in a world of 100% technical purity.. euro had risen 800+ pips from the October 1.22 baseline & had passed the non-traversed 1.29 multi-year cap in one shot (a vely rare occurance).. a back to back 2 month 10 figure ATR is also a rare sight for euro in recent years.. while a straight up overshoot to 1.32 level can't be rule out, its highly unlikely without some kind of support from m/t money players.. don't know about short termer movers targeting some option paid-outs, but i can't imagine any prudent real money folks positioning for the m/t would jump in with closed eyes to buy euro @ 1.30 in fear of missing another 200 pips.. so, any retracements from up here as long the 1.26 level is not violated on a weekly basis would be quite healthy for the euro & help to keep the bull run from 2002 intact..
for anyone who can move the buck down here, its not how you get in..the problem is how to recoupe those money spent plus getting out with profits when its time to unload..
Ldn.. hope this help you also..
cheers amigos..
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:13 GMT November 17, 2004
Van Gecko// Good morning amigo! My model says the €/$ uptrend from 2002 will permit 1.32 by 2nd week Dec. & not surprized if before. Trichet may growl - that's about all he can do successuflly to temporarily put off the inevitable..
intervention will be either non existant or temporary & possibly devestating to the € if carried to an extreme. When intervention starts, EU hurts, people complain. it stops. When it stops, and it will have to, that's a ticket to 1.32-1.40. The time frame for 1.32+ is variable with the EU intervention of course. Mid Dec is my guess. Remember folks, this is prediction..trend is your true friend..not predictions. Your thoughts/critique on this would be much appreciated Gecko.
Ldn 11:57 GMT November 17, 2004
van Gecko 11:53 hi there, how much higher to you envisage it (Euro)can go from here, realize its a crystal ball question but being the wizard that you are you may be able to answer it cheers
van Gecko 11:53 GMT November 17, 2004
valdez.. amigo, so its 1.32 - 1.34 - 1.35 or bust for you from here?
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:27 GMT November 17, 2004
I don't know if anyone remembers the E/$ triangle I mentioned here last week...time for another pop, either Friday or 1st half of this week.. maybe some took heed. Well, right on target, it popped. Sorry for the ones who ingnore my posts and are still waiting for a freeking E/$ retrace. The only retrace we'll have by my model is between 1.32 and 1.34 and that's only to form a double top. So go ahread and ignore that too. The trend which started 2002 has yet to be broken if one sees the big picture..3 year chart. I realize there are some here who do follow my posts. All I can do is to post.. I can't make you trade correctly.
van Gecko 10:31 GMT November 17, 2004
Bruxville Jim 09:57 most of the comments on this board offer good free entertainment value - little fishes possies have absolutely nothing to do with euro's path of least resistance.. these are battles waged by big fishes (with some big time losers turning into little fishes eventually).. most 'here today gone tommorrow' little fishes are swimming in a cesspool beyond their depth.. cheers
Helsinki iw 10:02 GMT November 17, 2004
Agree with jf and gecko that we are in a blow-off move that could be close to ending, time-wise. In actual size there is still room technically to see alot of weakness in the USD; EUR/USD 1,3470/80, CAD 1,1760/70, CHF 1,11/12 and JPY 103,30/40.
Bruxville Jim 09:57 GMT November 17, 2004
Bruxville Jim 15:50 GMT November 16, 2004
Judging from comments on this board - fishes have been building and are still building euro shorts. Therefore, the path of least resistance might appear to be UP...
Just got back to screen...
Sharks: "[Chop, Chop] Tasty, I want more!"
van Gecko 09:56 GMT November 17, 2004
Kamensk Andy 09:36.. lot easier for dollaryen to bounce up 200+ pips then to go down another 100 pips from these levels..
gl
Kamensk Andy 09:36 GMT November 17, 2004
Van Gecko - Good day. May i know your view on geisha please? TIA
van Gecko 09:32 GMT November 17, 2004
tk jf 09:14.. yes.. those presistent pushers are wasting ammo & injecting good liquidity into the gleeful hands of the sellers up here at these levels.. big time sellers realize these are rare opportunties to accumulate some el cheapo Dollars at unsustainable levels at little or NO risk & lotsa rewards..
cheerios..
tk jf 09:14 GMT November 17, 2004
ab - my trading strategy is clear now - wait for an acceleration and reversal of eurusd sell it then with stop above the high - pre-empting a high is too tough - if i have to wait 24 hours so be it - i thought we would have resolved this in nyk last night but it wasnt - i think eurusd will see 1.2750 soon - imo - usdyen cant comment again wait for people to stop out and the mkt reverse - feel like im happy to give away the next short term move for a larger one
van Gecko 08:40 GMT November 17, 2004
some pretty desperate warfares taking place here.. the ammo depots must be getting close to the redlines after 9 days of butting heads with the enemy forces.. patient practitioners of 'AAA' warfare tactics (Art of Ammo Allocation) would simply do a 'BRR' retreat here (Bailout, Regroup & Recruit) down to the 1.27 lines for a higher probability assault on the 1.30 enemies later..
"To achieve an advance that cannot be hampered, rush to his weak points. To achieve a withdrawal that cannot be pursued, depart with superior speed." Sun Tzu: The Art Of War
A general comment I posted on the political forum earlier today, which new traders may find it useful as reference (old guns can skip it as it is well known history):
Without saying that next year EUR/$ can't trade at 1.35 or 1.40, I think we must keep things in perspective. I wrote on Tuesday on TT that $/DEM lost 62% of its value when it hit 1.34 from 3.48 in 1985. However, during the first 3-4 years we had a very steep decline from 3.48 to 1.56which was a 52% devaluation. The rest of the move took much longer and the absolute bottom was seen in 1995 i.e. 10 years after the start of the decline and at that point we had a 62% devaluation. Coming now to the present picture, EUR/$ has already appreviated by almost 58% in 4 years. I am not implying that we need another 6 years but even here at this point the USD has lost from its best levels seen in 2000 almost what had lost in 10 years back then. This may not be a trading idea, but at least calls for caution when setting targets in levels and time.
van Gecko 14:36 GMT November 17, 2004
valdez.. imo that all moves are not created equal & can't be treated as equal..
those prior 1000 pip moves which you noted all occured near the beginning and at the mid point of the run up from 2002.. and in all cases they involve taking out some previously traversed resistances by the euro decending from its 1999 launched.. this time however, the recent 8 figure run up with euro taking out the previously non-traversed 1.29 multi-year cap in one shot (1.2850 was the old 1996 synthetic high) at/near a maturing multi-year trend should be viewed with caution by prudent m/t players..
Stockholm AGuy 13:44.. no problem.. i understand what you was referring to after a 2nd read..
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:45 GMT November 17, 2004
van Gecko 13:20 GMT November 17, 2004
1. ...while a straight up overshoot to 1.32 level can't be rule out, its highly unlikely without some kind of support from m/t money players..
2. ..so, any retracements from up here as long the 1.26 level is not violated on a weekly basis would be quite healthy for the euro & help to keep the bull run..
1. Respectfully, I didn't say nor imply a "straight up overshoot to 1.32.." Anyone realizes of course it'll have dips-retraces but I wouldn't say all the way to 1.23 as some here are hoping, & no retrace more than a 150-200 pips based on chart history from 2002.
2. But you will note 5 former straight up charges since 2002 in the 3 year chart, usually displaying one small retrace usually on the big 1000 pip moves. This move from 1.22 could be that very type of pattern, you have to admit, since it's happend 5 times in two years already. And yes, a nice retrace would be healthy to proceed past 1.32, I realize that and want to see it badly. This whole move "started" (matter of opinion) at 1.2250. Former upmoves involved from 1000 to 1500 pips. Let's say we're are at 1.3050 nowish. So this move sofar is 1.3050-1.2250=800 pips. As you see, it lacks between 200 - 700 pips of "maturing" into a typical big chart move for this pair. Right? So that's why 1.32 is in my sights. And beyond. It's just my model.
Van Gecko, I'll ignore as most here Stockholm aguy's usual arrogance, hope you do the same. I'm preparing an entry in Help Forum just for him..ready in 15-20 minutes, to avoid aguy-valdez/gecko tennis here on FF.Thanks for your critique amigo.
Stockholm AGuy 13:44 GMT November 17, 2004
van Gecko 13:20 GMT:
I seem to owe you an apology; apparently I attributed some comments to you which were actually written by somebody else (thought he was quoting you). Sorry about that.
Ldn 13:29 GMT November 17, 2004
van Gecko 13:20 yes it does and agree
van Gecko 13:20 GMT November 17, 2004
valdez.. thanks for your views amigo, funnymentals makes my head spin as i live in a world of 100% technical purity.. euro had risen 800+ pips from the October 1.22 baseline & had passed the non-traversed 1.29 multi-year cap in one shot (a vely rare occurance).. a back to back 2 month 10 figure ATR is also a rare sight for euro in recent years.. while a straight up overshoot to 1.32 level can't be rule out, its highly unlikely without some kind of support from m/t money players.. don't know about short termer movers targeting some option paid-outs, but i can't imagine any prudent real money folks positioning for the m/t would jump in with closed eyes to buy euro @ 1.30 in fear of missing another 200 pips.. so, any retracements from up here as long the 1.26 level is not violated on a weekly basis would be quite healthy for the euro & help to keep the bull run from 2002 intact..
for anyone who can move the buck down here, its not how you get in..the problem is how to recoupe those money spent plus getting out with profits when its time to unload..
Ldn.. hope this help you also..
cheers amigos..
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:13 GMT November 17, 2004
Van Gecko// Good morning amigo! My model says the €/$ uptrend from 2002 will permit 1.32 by 2nd week Dec. & not surprized if before. Trichet may growl - that's about all he can do successuflly to temporarily put off the inevitable..
intervention will be either non existant or temporary & possibly devestating to the € if carried to an extreme. When intervention starts, EU hurts, people complain. it stops. When it stops, and it will have to, that's a ticket to 1.32-1.40. The time frame for 1.32+ is variable with the EU intervention of course. Mid Dec is my guess. Remember folks, this is prediction..trend is your true friend..not predictions. Your thoughts/critique on this would be much appreciated Gecko.
Ldn 11:57 GMT November 17, 2004
van Gecko 11:53 hi there, how much higher to you envisage it (Euro)can go from here, realize its a crystal ball question but being the wizard that you are you may be able to answer it cheers
van Gecko 11:53 GMT November 17, 2004
valdez.. amigo, so its 1.32 - 1.34 - 1.35 or bust for you from here?
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:27 GMT November 17, 2004
I don't know if anyone remembers the E/$ triangle I mentioned here last week...time for another pop, either Friday or 1st half of this week.. maybe some took heed. Well, right on target, it popped. Sorry for the ones who ingnore my posts and are still waiting for a freeking E/$ retrace. The only retrace we'll have by my model is between 1.32 and 1.34 and that's only to form a double top. So go ahread and ignore that too. The trend which started 2002 has yet to be broken if one sees the big picture..3 year chart. I realize there are some here who do follow my posts. All I can do is to post.. I can't make you trade correctly.
van Gecko 10:31 GMT November 17, 2004
Bruxville Jim 09:57 most of the comments on this board offer good free entertainment value - little fishes possies have absolutely nothing to do with euro's path of least resistance.. these are battles waged by big fishes (with some big time losers turning into little fishes eventually).. most 'here today gone tommorrow' little fishes are swimming in a cesspool beyond their depth.. cheers
Helsinki iw 10:02 GMT November 17, 2004
Agree with jf and gecko that we are in a blow-off move that could be close to ending, time-wise. In actual size there is still room technically to see alot of weakness in the USD; EUR/USD 1,3470/80, CAD 1,1760/70, CHF 1,11/12 and JPY 103,30/40.
Bruxville Jim 09:57 GMT November 17, 2004
Bruxville Jim 15:50 GMT November 16, 2004
Judging from comments on this board - fishes have been building and are still building euro shorts. Therefore, the path of least resistance might appear to be UP...
Just got back to screen...
Sharks: "[Chop, Chop] Tasty, I want more!"
van Gecko 09:56 GMT November 17, 2004
Kamensk Andy 09:36.. lot easier for dollaryen to bounce up 200+ pips then to go down another 100 pips from these levels..
gl
Kamensk Andy 09:36 GMT November 17, 2004
Van Gecko - Good day. May i know your view on geisha please? TIA
van Gecko 09:32 GMT November 17, 2004
tk jf 09:14.. yes.. those presistent pushers are wasting ammo & injecting good liquidity into the gleeful hands of the sellers up here at these levels.. big time sellers realize these are rare opportunties to accumulate some el cheapo Dollars at unsustainable levels at little or NO risk & lotsa rewards..
cheerios..
tk jf 09:14 GMT November 17, 2004
ab - my trading strategy is clear now - wait for an acceleration and reversal of eurusd sell it then with stop above the high - pre-empting a high is too tough - if i have to wait 24 hours so be it - i thought we would have resolved this in nyk last night but it wasnt - i think eurusd will see 1.2750 soon - imo - usdyen cant comment again wait for people to stop out and the mkt reverse - feel like im happy to give away the next short term move for a larger one
van Gecko 08:40 GMT November 17, 2004
some pretty desperate warfares taking place here.. the ammo depots must be getting close to the redlines after 9 days of butting heads with the enemy forces.. patient practitioners of 'AAA' warfare tactics (Art of Ammo Allocation) would simply do a 'BRR' retreat here (Bailout, Regroup & Recruit) down to the 1.27 lines for a higher probability assault on the 1.30 enemies later..
"To achieve an advance that cannot be hampered, rush to his weak points. To achieve a withdrawal that cannot be pursued, depart with superior speed." Sun Tzu: The Art Of War
Monday, November 15, 2004
van Gecko 10:52 GMT November 15, 2004
viktor 09:57.. cheers mate, another index to watch for is the CRB.. the breakout over 250 last year help pushed the Euro & the commodity trios (Aussie, Kiwi & Cad) up to new highs towards the year end.. however, so far its having a hard time staying over the 280's after breaking above the 285 year long cap last month.. giving up 280 would tilt the odds for a false break of 285 this year..
prague viktor 09:57 GMT November 15, 2004
van Gecko 09:39..Thank u very much G/L G/T
van Gecko 09:39 GMT November 15, 2004
prague viktor 08:58...G.day.. if gold & crude oil can stay above $435 & $55 by month end, the little Dollar Chf could extend its m/t bias for the 1.12's.. if not, and should the Dollar retrace up & stay over the 1.21's in the near term, then theres good odd for the dollar going back up into the year long snooze range with a m/t bottoming bias..
prague viktor 08:58 GMT November 15, 2004
van Gecko 08:30 ...G.day mate! great post...may i ask u please for ur usd tgt to the year end ..TIA
London. 08:39 GMT November 15, 2004
van Gecko 08:30 this was the same with the Aud at the low , some great data but ignored - in reflection was a great buy down there
van Gecko 08:30 GMT November 15, 2004
seems like the more the Dollar change, the more they stay the same..
GV circa "February 26, 2002
........ They are Keeping the Euro and other currencies down. and the Dollar high - no matter what reports will come out from the Euro Zone or any other country they will be sold off
- and the Dollar its BUY DOLLARS GOOD DATE * BUY DOLLARS BAD DATE -- SELL EUROS GOOD DATA . "
sounds familiar?
for those 'big time euro pushers' up here, getting out with profits may be a pleasant problem once acrophobia sets in..
overstretched ammo depots can shrink faster then the blink of the eye.. cheerios..
viktor 09:57.. cheers mate, another index to watch for is the CRB.. the breakout over 250 last year help pushed the Euro & the commodity trios (Aussie, Kiwi & Cad) up to new highs towards the year end.. however, so far its having a hard time staying over the 280's after breaking above the 285 year long cap last month.. giving up 280 would tilt the odds for a false break of 285 this year..
prague viktor 09:57 GMT November 15, 2004
van Gecko 09:39..Thank u very much G/L G/T
van Gecko 09:39 GMT November 15, 2004
prague viktor 08:58...G.day.. if gold & crude oil can stay above $435 & $55 by month end, the little Dollar Chf could extend its m/t bias for the 1.12's.. if not, and should the Dollar retrace up & stay over the 1.21's in the near term, then theres good odd for the dollar going back up into the year long snooze range with a m/t bottoming bias..
prague viktor 08:58 GMT November 15, 2004
van Gecko 08:30 ...G.day mate! great post...may i ask u please for ur usd tgt to the year end ..TIA
London. 08:39 GMT November 15, 2004
van Gecko 08:30 this was the same with the Aud at the low , some great data but ignored - in reflection was a great buy down there
van Gecko 08:30 GMT November 15, 2004
seems like the more the Dollar change, the more they stay the same..
GV circa "February 26, 2002
........ They are Keeping the Euro and other currencies down. and the Dollar high - no matter what reports will come out from the Euro Zone or any other country they will be sold off
- and the Dollar its BUY DOLLARS GOOD DATE * BUY DOLLARS BAD DATE -- SELL EUROS GOOD DATA . "
sounds familiar?
for those 'big time euro pushers' up here, getting out with profits may be a pleasant problem once acrophobia sets in..
overstretched ammo depots can shrink faster then the blink of the eye.. cheerios..
Friday, November 12, 2004
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:00 GMT November 12, 2004
Gecko//"Jay has my addy if you have more questions.. " Tks..will pursue it. It's an honor for me. Let's kick some FX butt amigo.
Calabash TarHeel 13:55 GMT November 12, 2004
van Gecko 13:45 GMT November 12, 2004
Excellent post. Thanks.
Take Care. Good Luck.
van Gecko 13:45 GMT November 12, 2004
valdez 12:57..13:39..:) i am learning from you & everyone here too..
instead of repeating my recent thoughts on the Dollar & taking up more valuable forum spaces please look inside Jay's wonderful archives.. most are there.. Jay has my addy if you have more questions..
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:39 GMT November 12, 2004
Syd 13:16 GMT November 12, 2004//Tks 4 your post, I agree, different banks have different possies..each trying to make theirs come out positive...lieing is a way of winning for them. I hate banks.
But that's why I want Gecko's reasoning...I respect the man incredibly as you & others do, he has a fantastic track record. I love to hear from those who disagree with me who are in tune as Gecko certainly is, afterall, that's unbiased FX & unbiased FX is the winning hand. I've posted my reasoning for scrutiny..if it's wrong then we all together as one body look at the defect itself, isolate it, to not repeat it. Right or wrong?
We could have a Gecko retrace if intervention rattles its saber or if indeed softening happens..true. Hope so!
Syd 13:16 GMT November 12, 2004
quito_ecuador_valdez I have noticed the different views from the Banks , most probably all talking their books. However, I must say Van Gecko has an excellent long term record on the forum and most often hits the nail on the head when it comes to forecasts (would be wise to let his thoughts linger awhile )
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:57 GMT November 12, 2004
van Gecko 12:29 GMT November 12, 2004
Your posts are super..I love your sence of humor too. You & I disagree about the fate of the USD in the month to come; you say it's due for a retrace, I say if left alone it's gonna go to 1.32 or higher. Intervention could retrace it (that is a fact) making you correct, and intervention is at least in the wind the higher the chart moves.
Since I respect your opinions highly I want desperately to know (as well as all of us here!) your valued reasoning of why you feel the €/$ will retrace. I never learned anything from someone who agreed with me..let's communicate. Please ask Jay for my email. OK amigo? Or just post it here for all of us to benefit from. GT, thanks for your continued FF support, we need ya!
~~~~<><<>><>~~~~
London. 12:50 GMT November 12, 2004
Van Gecko many thanks appreciated very much
van Gecko 12:48 GMT November 12, 2004
London.. yep.. short term reversal which could be the start of a long term reversal.. watch the little Dollar Chf for clues in the next few weeks..
London. 12:39 GMT November 12, 2004
van Gecko 12:29 GMT so inflection point..
you are saying that the Dollar bulls can now rejoice (yes) for a short term reversal
van Gecko 12:29 GMT November 12, 2004
the Dollar may be at or near a medium to long term inflection point..
charts from the school of Voodoo Charting Psychoanalysis are showing signs of mid-life crisis for the 4 year old Dollar Bear.. may be its near a critical point here with so much supporting noises coming from those 'Men in Black'..
good odds for shell-shocked Dollar bulls to hum this is "The End" to the bear run from 2001.. think its time to hedge all m/t Dollar bets..
Cheerios..
Gecko//"Jay has my addy if you have more questions.. " Tks..will pursue it. It's an honor for me. Let's kick some FX butt amigo.
Calabash TarHeel 13:55 GMT November 12, 2004
van Gecko 13:45 GMT November 12, 2004
Excellent post. Thanks.
Take Care. Good Luck.
van Gecko 13:45 GMT November 12, 2004
valdez 12:57..13:39..:) i am learning from you & everyone here too..
instead of repeating my recent thoughts on the Dollar & taking up more valuable forum spaces please look inside Jay's wonderful archives.. most are there.. Jay has my addy if you have more questions..
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:39 GMT November 12, 2004
Syd 13:16 GMT November 12, 2004//Tks 4 your post, I agree, different banks have different possies..each trying to make theirs come out positive...lieing is a way of winning for them. I hate banks.
But that's why I want Gecko's reasoning...I respect the man incredibly as you & others do, he has a fantastic track record. I love to hear from those who disagree with me who are in tune as Gecko certainly is, afterall, that's unbiased FX & unbiased FX is the winning hand. I've posted my reasoning for scrutiny..if it's wrong then we all together as one body look at the defect itself, isolate it, to not repeat it. Right or wrong?
We could have a Gecko retrace if intervention rattles its saber or if indeed softening happens..true. Hope so!
Syd 13:16 GMT November 12, 2004
quito_ecuador_valdez I have noticed the different views from the Banks , most probably all talking their books. However, I must say Van Gecko has an excellent long term record on the forum and most often hits the nail on the head when it comes to forecasts (would be wise to let his thoughts linger awhile )
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:57 GMT November 12, 2004
van Gecko 12:29 GMT November 12, 2004
Your posts are super..I love your sence of humor too. You & I disagree about the fate of the USD in the month to come; you say it's due for a retrace, I say if left alone it's gonna go to 1.32 or higher. Intervention could retrace it (that is a fact) making you correct, and intervention is at least in the wind the higher the chart moves.
Since I respect your opinions highly I want desperately to know (as well as all of us here!) your valued reasoning of why you feel the €/$ will retrace. I never learned anything from someone who agreed with me..let's communicate. Please ask Jay for my email. OK amigo? Or just post it here for all of us to benefit from. GT, thanks for your continued FF support, we need ya!
~~~~<><<>><>~~~~
London. 12:50 GMT November 12, 2004
Van Gecko many thanks appreciated very much
van Gecko 12:48 GMT November 12, 2004
London.. yep.. short term reversal which could be the start of a long term reversal.. watch the little Dollar Chf for clues in the next few weeks..
London. 12:39 GMT November 12, 2004
van Gecko 12:29 GMT so inflection point..
you are saying that the Dollar bulls can now rejoice (yes) for a short term reversal
van Gecko 12:29 GMT November 12, 2004
the Dollar may be at or near a medium to long term inflection point..
charts from the school of Voodoo Charting Psychoanalysis are showing signs of mid-life crisis for the 4 year old Dollar Bear.. may be its near a critical point here with so much supporting noises coming from those 'Men in Black'..
good odds for shell-shocked Dollar bulls to hum this is "The End" to the bear run from 2001.. think its time to hedge all m/t Dollar bets..
Cheerios..
Wednesday, November 10, 2004
Syd 01:14 GMT November 11, 2004
van Gecko been patiently waiting hopefully should be not too long now .. keep posting your thoughts again thanks
van Gecko 01:12 GMT November 11, 2004
morning Syd... indeed.. with oil already in correction, gold is now poised for a good dip..
a good window of opportunity comming up for bottom feeding cheerleaders and patient m/t players to sell the buck up at more liquid levels..
cheerios..
Syd 23:44 GMT November 10, 2004
Van Gecko & BC looks like your call on the $US may be about to begin a few of the ingredients have been put into the bowl
Syd 15:31 GMT November 10, 2004
van Gecko can you throw the aud into the mix also thanks
van Gecko 15:26 GMT November 10, 2004
Kevin.. good job.. cold_feet_titist kicking into full gear.. 1.2750 within diving range..
HK Kevin 15:16 GMT November 10, 2004
van Gecko 14:54 GMT, 1.2855 is enough for me. Need to close my position before FOMC meeting.
van Gecko 14:54 GMT November 10, 2004
Kevin.. hope you're fine.. price action since last Friday imply some anxious predator syndicates was in a rush to pull a fast one over us.. to turn the whole fx world into a bunch of screaming Dollar bears..
the 1/2 session gravestone is now propagating into the one session bar.. a potential blow-off top in the making..
HK Kevin 14:19 GMT November 10, 2004
van Gecko 14:07 GMT, we have a reverse day this Mon in the daily chart of EUR, an inside day yesterday, followed by a new high today. Interesting and need to watch today's close for clue. My limit order short at 1.30 was executued.
van Gecko 14:14 GMT November 10, 2004
1/2 session euro gravestone..
van Gecko 14:07 GMT November 10, 2004
looks like some elephant bears did a slam dunk on euro up at 1.30..
van Gecko been patiently waiting hopefully should be not too long now .. keep posting your thoughts again thanks
van Gecko 01:12 GMT November 11, 2004
morning Syd... indeed.. with oil already in correction, gold is now poised for a good dip..
a good window of opportunity comming up for bottom feeding cheerleaders and patient m/t players to sell the buck up at more liquid levels..
cheerios..
Syd 23:44 GMT November 10, 2004
Van Gecko & BC looks like your call on the $US may be about to begin a few of the ingredients have been put into the bowl
Syd 15:31 GMT November 10, 2004
van Gecko can you throw the aud into the mix also thanks
van Gecko 15:26 GMT November 10, 2004
Kevin.. good job.. cold_feet_titist kicking into full gear.. 1.2750 within diving range..
HK Kevin 15:16 GMT November 10, 2004
van Gecko 14:54 GMT, 1.2855 is enough for me. Need to close my position before FOMC meeting.
van Gecko 14:54 GMT November 10, 2004
Kevin.. hope you're fine.. price action since last Friday imply some anxious predator syndicates was in a rush to pull a fast one over us.. to turn the whole fx world into a bunch of screaming Dollar bears..
the 1/2 session gravestone is now propagating into the one session bar.. a potential blow-off top in the making..
HK Kevin 14:19 GMT November 10, 2004
van Gecko 14:07 GMT, we have a reverse day this Mon in the daily chart of EUR, an inside day yesterday, followed by a new high today. Interesting and need to watch today's close for clue. My limit order short at 1.30 was executued.
van Gecko 14:14 GMT November 10, 2004
1/2 session euro gravestone..
van Gecko 14:07 GMT November 10, 2004
looks like some elephant bears did a slam dunk on euro up at 1.30..
Tuesday, November 09, 2004
HK RF@ 12:46 GMT November 9, 2004
van Gecko 10:14 GMT November 9, 2004
Indeed very similar price action to that in January.
Thanks for that reminder.
van Gecko 10:14 GMT November 9, 2004
HK RF@ 09:26.. good pointz.. a repeat of the Jan 11 scenario would certainly make life interesting for most..
euro probing new highz.. the duckz start singing.. the 'fat man' sing..
boom! the bearz pouncz.. bullz get cold_feet_titistz ..
5 days & 5 figures later 'balance is restored' & almost everyone is happy.. the cycle repeats..
1.2850 could be the trigger..
Cheerioz..
HK RF@ 09:26 GMT November 9, 2004
What can worry more the boyz responsible for the last $$$_bear.
*Gold breaks above 15_years Res. and fuss out fast
* Euro_fuss out B4 1.3000
*gbp_break-through Res. line, part of a long term daily Triangle and die out.
So now those boyz looking for suckers on both side of the trade to victimize in a narrow range trade.
They worry of an upward move because of intervention.
And a down move to the deep abyss.
But one think good have they done now!!!
They are stabilizing for the time the dollar like a fearing man walking on a rope, and prove the world that there is a limit to the move.
And there is more!!!
If they fall of the rope the $$$ may rebound and bring some more investments for the time to the US, thus they may even indirectly contribute to a trade deficit reduction for this month.
van Gecko 10:14 GMT November 9, 2004
Indeed very similar price action to that in January.
Thanks for that reminder.
van Gecko 10:14 GMT November 9, 2004
HK RF@ 09:26.. good pointz.. a repeat of the Jan 11 scenario would certainly make life interesting for most..
euro probing new highz.. the duckz start singing.. the 'fat man' sing..
boom! the bearz pouncz.. bullz get cold_feet_titistz ..
5 days & 5 figures later 'balance is restored' & almost everyone is happy.. the cycle repeats..
1.2850 could be the trigger..
Cheerioz..
HK RF@ 09:26 GMT November 9, 2004
What can worry more the boyz responsible for the last $$$_bear.
*Gold breaks above 15_years Res. and fuss out fast
* Euro_fuss out B4 1.3000
*gbp_break-through Res. line, part of a long term daily Triangle and die out.
So now those boyz looking for suckers on both side of the trade to victimize in a narrow range trade.
They worry of an upward move because of intervention.
And a down move to the deep abyss.
But one think good have they done now!!!
They are stabilizing for the time the dollar like a fearing man walking on a rope, and prove the world that there is a limit to the move.
And there is more!!!
If they fall of the rope the $$$ may rebound and bring some more investments for the time to the US, thus they may even indirectly contribute to a trade deficit reduction for this month.
Monday, November 08, 2004
perrie como 13:25 GMT November 8, 2004
Yes Gecko waiting Usd/Jpy between 104.50 to 102 this week...Chicago is historically record short of dollars against all....This smellllllllls
van Gecko 13:20 GMT November 8, 2004
"Sixty percent of the traders, strategists and investors questioned on Nov. 5 from Tokyo to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro. Participants also said the U.S. currency will likely drop versus the yen, British pound, Swiss franc and Australian dollar.
bloomberg"
sweet music for Dollar bulls & bears..
QDN @ prime time ..
Yes Gecko waiting Usd/Jpy between 104.50 to 102 this week...Chicago is historically record short of dollars against all....This smellllllllls
van Gecko 13:20 GMT November 8, 2004
"Sixty percent of the traders, strategists and investors questioned on Nov. 5 from Tokyo to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro. Participants also said the U.S. currency will likely drop versus the yen, British pound, Swiss franc and Australian dollar.
bloomberg"
sweet music for Dollar bulls & bears..
QDN @ prime time ..
Friday, November 05, 2004
van Gecko 05:46 GMT November 6, 2004
hk mom 15:55.. good to hear you are now fat.. some real money m/t players practice staying fat in FX by learning to be patient & never chase the market at extremes..
Even tho it looks like the Dollar had easily 'sliced' through the 84.50 support on a good NFP Friday, not sure how much m/t real money was behind this move.. so be patient & let the market come to your comfort levels over the next weeks; add/reload on bounces in front of 86.50.. and if the Dollar is still under 85 by this time next week, add/reload on bounces in front of 84.50..
there will be many chances for discipline dollar bears to get fat trading their favriote pairs upon a confirmed break of 84.50..
have a nice w/e..
hk mom 15:55 GMT November 5, 2004
Gecko, we have cleaned 84.50. Should we chase?
I am still fat.....
hk mom 15:55.. good to hear you are now fat.. some real money m/t players practice staying fat in FX by learning to be patient & never chase the market at extremes..
Even tho it looks like the Dollar had easily 'sliced' through the 84.50 support on a good NFP Friday, not sure how much m/t real money was behind this move.. so be patient & let the market come to your comfort levels over the next weeks; add/reload on bounces in front of 86.50.. and if the Dollar is still under 85 by this time next week, add/reload on bounces in front of 84.50..
there will be many chances for discipline dollar bears to get fat trading their favriote pairs upon a confirmed break of 84.50..
have a nice w/e..
hk mom 15:55 GMT November 5, 2004
Gecko, we have cleaned 84.50. Should we chase?
I am still fat.....
Thursday, November 04, 2004
london 07:44 GMT November 4, 2004
van Gecko many thanks for explaining it helps considerably
van Gecko 07:39 GMT November 4, 2004
london 06:09.. m/t money players are willing to push the USD at anytime under the right market bias, risk & liquidity.. the S/M/L term bias is for a lower Dollar, but the risk of selling the Dollar here at or near a potential S/M/L term double bottom & the lack of liquidity may not be acceptable for prudent players at these near term extreme levels..
london 06:09 GMT November 4, 2004
Thanks for the reply, are you saying m/t money players..are unwilling to push the USD any lower at this time?
van Gecko 01:41 GMT November 4, 2004
london 14:35/hk mom 22:35.. it usually take anywhere from 4 to 8 weeks for the Dollar to resolve its next short/medium term direction from a major level, the Dollar is into week 2 of resolving the crucial 85 neckline after taking out the 87/88 6 month support..
with the Dollar starting the month at the low after losing over 400 basis points in October, any near term gains by predator bears are not sustainable due to lack of participation from m/t money players..
hk mom 22:35 GMT November 3, 2004
Gecko, is the usd correction over? 84.50 is gone already?
london 14:35 GMT November 3, 2004
Gecko if around are you still looking for that correction higher USD with Bush win
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
van Gecko many thanks for explaining it helps considerably
van Gecko 07:39 GMT November 4, 2004
london 06:09.. m/t money players are willing to push the USD at anytime under the right market bias, risk & liquidity.. the S/M/L term bias is for a lower Dollar, but the risk of selling the Dollar here at or near a potential S/M/L term double bottom & the lack of liquidity may not be acceptable for prudent players at these near term extreme levels..
london 06:09 GMT November 4, 2004
Thanks for the reply, are you saying m/t money players..are unwilling to push the USD any lower at this time?
van Gecko 01:41 GMT November 4, 2004
london 14:35/hk mom 22:35.. it usually take anywhere from 4 to 8 weeks for the Dollar to resolve its next short/medium term direction from a major level, the Dollar is into week 2 of resolving the crucial 85 neckline after taking out the 87/88 6 month support..
with the Dollar starting the month at the low after losing over 400 basis points in October, any near term gains by predator bears are not sustainable due to lack of participation from m/t money players..
hk mom 22:35 GMT November 3, 2004
Gecko, is the usd correction over? 84.50 is gone already?
london 14:35 GMT November 3, 2004
Gecko if around are you still looking for that correction higher USD with Bush win
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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