Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Thursday, November 25, 2004
van Gecko 15:28 GMT November 25, 2004
hello Malaga boqueron.. how are you? its nice to see a born again? EUUS bull..
yea.. its certainly looking that way so far.. what a sorry rag tag bunch!
happy Thanksgiving..
:)
Malaga boqueron 15:12 GMT November 25, 2004
van Gecko 14:39 GMT re Dollar Bear Brigade vs. Men in Black
The Men in Black seem to be a rag tag bunch unable or unwilling to put up any sort of resistance, short of a few verbal attacks. I'm more worried about the Dollar Bear Brigade leading us to the front, and then leaving us there to fend for ourselves, or worse yet, turning against us.
van Gecko 14:39 GMT November 25, 2004
gvm.. nah, after so many years in this biz you should know anything is possible in this wild & wonderful cesspool..:)
it would certainly make smart sense & much easier for the 'Dollar Bear Brigade' with their collective power to move the Euro back down 10 figures from here then to butt head & fight with those Men in Black for another 8 figures up to 1.40..
sydney gvm 14:23 GMT November 25, 2004
Gecko - dont cha think we need a bit of a panic $ selloff first? - really this trend has been quite orderly - need a stupid day before we get a smart day IMHO
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 25, 2004
Spotforex.. its conceivable for those savvy 'Dollar Bear Brigade' after running up the Euro 10 big figures from 1.22 to lock in their profits here & turn themselve into a bunch of born again 'Dollar Bull Brigade' & run the Euro back down to 1.22 just when everybody & their mothers are getting caught up with this latest Dollar bear hysteria..
that will certainly please those disgruntled Men in Black, leave all the 1.35/40 bulls biting the dust & save themselve the trouble of having to constantly looking over their shouldlers in fear of intervention..:) no?
rocco.. my pleasure, please contact boss Jay..
Spotforex NY 13:47 GMT November 25, 2004
Hi Zorro!!!!
One of the Swiss Banks objective is 1.4000
I do not see any coordinated intervention until 1.45
Last Nov - the euro stated on a 12 big fig climb...the same is in store for this year??????
happy hunting
spot
Sofia rocco 13:32 GMT November 25, 2004
Gecko - thank u. Can I get your e-mail?
van Gecko 13:10 GMT November 25, 2004
rocco 11:57.. with Eur/Cad consolidating for the last few weeks after flying south in unision with the Goose since June could provide some reliefs for DollarCad.. the key to more pain or some pleasure for the Goose here is the raging Euro.. a straight up moon shot to 1.35/1.40 will prolong the pain for the Gooser bulls.. while a near term corrective consolidation by the Euro along with some retracement from Eur/Cad should see some kind of bounce by Usd/Cad..
gl..
Sofia rocco 11:57 GMT November 25, 2004
Gecko - pls your view for usdcad. Any retracement before 1.13? :). TIA
van Gecko 10:02 GMT November 25, 2004
from a historical prespective, anytime the Dollar had penetrated Dollar Index 85-80 after a Long term down trend offers very good odd for a potential sharp long to medium term trend change..
on each of the past 4 L/T trend reversals, the Dollar climbed at least 1800 basis points over the subsequent L/M/T periods.. the 1995-2001 L/T up trend reversed near index 80..
in 1988 the Dollar reversed the 4000 basis point L/T downtrend after the '85 Plaza accord near index 85.. it is now at index 82 after declining 4000 basis points for the last 4 years..fwiw..
SGP SP 07:23 GMT November 25, 2004
Good afternoon Gecko,
It is really nice to see your regular posts....may I request for your e-mail addy thru Jay? Thanks
gl & gt
van Gecko 07:11 GMT November 25, 2004
re. intervention speculations, imo any m/t player who is not in the know on the latest intentions of the 'Dollar Bear Brigade' should stay well clear of this Dollar Beer party at this late stage unless you are still running possies from up at higher grounds.. its nice to cheer & holler for a year end 1.35/1.40 targets with the herds, but the psychological impact in holding any dollar bags from down here while the Dollar undergo an immenient few precentage correction (or an inconceivable trend reversal) could be devastating on the trading mind..
that said, the near term 'lips seal/hands off' policy from those Men in Black may be a tactic designed to lure as many of the Dollar Bear Brigade memebers into a false sense of complacency before the 'buck stops here boom' is lower on the Bear Brigades..
with this week's spike from 1.30, the euro is forming a classic 3 day 'spike & dive' exhaustion pattern at the end of a 10 figure rise from 1.22..
Cheerios..
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
hello Malaga boqueron.. how are you? its nice to see a born again? EUUS bull..
yea.. its certainly looking that way so far.. what a sorry rag tag bunch!
happy Thanksgiving..
:)
Malaga boqueron 15:12 GMT November 25, 2004
van Gecko 14:39 GMT re Dollar Bear Brigade vs. Men in Black
The Men in Black seem to be a rag tag bunch unable or unwilling to put up any sort of resistance, short of a few verbal attacks. I'm more worried about the Dollar Bear Brigade leading us to the front, and then leaving us there to fend for ourselves, or worse yet, turning against us.
van Gecko 14:39 GMT November 25, 2004
gvm.. nah, after so many years in this biz you should know anything is possible in this wild & wonderful cesspool..:)
it would certainly make smart sense & much easier for the 'Dollar Bear Brigade' with their collective power to move the Euro back down 10 figures from here then to butt head & fight with those Men in Black for another 8 figures up to 1.40..
sydney gvm 14:23 GMT November 25, 2004
Gecko - dont cha think we need a bit of a panic $ selloff first? - really this trend has been quite orderly - need a stupid day before we get a smart day IMHO
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 25, 2004
Spotforex.. its conceivable for those savvy 'Dollar Bear Brigade' after running up the Euro 10 big figures from 1.22 to lock in their profits here & turn themselve into a bunch of born again 'Dollar Bull Brigade' & run the Euro back down to 1.22 just when everybody & their mothers are getting caught up with this latest Dollar bear hysteria..
that will certainly please those disgruntled Men in Black, leave all the 1.35/40 bulls biting the dust & save themselve the trouble of having to constantly looking over their shouldlers in fear of intervention..:) no?
rocco.. my pleasure, please contact boss Jay..
Spotforex NY 13:47 GMT November 25, 2004
Hi Zorro!!!!
One of the Swiss Banks objective is 1.4000
I do not see any coordinated intervention until 1.45
Last Nov - the euro stated on a 12 big fig climb...the same is in store for this year??????
happy hunting
spot
Sofia rocco 13:32 GMT November 25, 2004
Gecko - thank u. Can I get your e-mail?
van Gecko 13:10 GMT November 25, 2004
rocco 11:57.. with Eur/Cad consolidating for the last few weeks after flying south in unision with the Goose since June could provide some reliefs for DollarCad.. the key to more pain or some pleasure for the Goose here is the raging Euro.. a straight up moon shot to 1.35/1.40 will prolong the pain for the Gooser bulls.. while a near term corrective consolidation by the Euro along with some retracement from Eur/Cad should see some kind of bounce by Usd/Cad..
gl..
Sofia rocco 11:57 GMT November 25, 2004
Gecko - pls your view for usdcad. Any retracement before 1.13? :). TIA
van Gecko 10:02 GMT November 25, 2004
from a historical prespective, anytime the Dollar had penetrated Dollar Index 85-80 after a Long term down trend offers very good odd for a potential sharp long to medium term trend change..
on each of the past 4 L/T trend reversals, the Dollar climbed at least 1800 basis points over the subsequent L/M/T periods.. the 1995-2001 L/T up trend reversed near index 80..
in 1988 the Dollar reversed the 4000 basis point L/T downtrend after the '85 Plaza accord near index 85.. it is now at index 82 after declining 4000 basis points for the last 4 years..fwiw..
SGP SP 07:23 GMT November 25, 2004
Good afternoon Gecko,
It is really nice to see your regular posts....may I request for your e-mail addy thru Jay? Thanks
gl & gt
van Gecko 07:11 GMT November 25, 2004
re. intervention speculations, imo any m/t player who is not in the know on the latest intentions of the 'Dollar Bear Brigade' should stay well clear of this Dollar Beer party at this late stage unless you are still running possies from up at higher grounds.. its nice to cheer & holler for a year end 1.35/1.40 targets with the herds, but the psychological impact in holding any dollar bags from down here while the Dollar undergo an immenient few precentage correction (or an inconceivable trend reversal) could be devastating on the trading mind..
that said, the near term 'lips seal/hands off' policy from those Men in Black may be a tactic designed to lure as many of the Dollar Bear Brigade memebers into a false sense of complacency before the 'buck stops here boom' is lower on the Bear Brigades..
with this week's spike from 1.30, the euro is forming a classic 3 day 'spike & dive' exhaustion pattern at the end of a 10 figure rise from 1.22..
Cheerios..
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Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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