Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Thursday, December 28, 2006
la oleg 16:07 GMT December 27, 2006
never let the facts get in the way of a good story:
"In other words, just as the dollar was falling at its most rapid rate in 2003 and 2004, and just as the world turned ultra-bearish on the dollar and began to talk about the risk of central bank diversification, central banks were actually doing the opposite: buying a massive amount of dollars to offset the price effect."
highly recommended reading: morgan stanley
never let the facts get in the way of a good story:
"In other words, just as the dollar was falling at its most rapid rate in 2003 and 2004, and just as the world turned ultra-bearish on the dollar and began to talk about the risk of central bank diversification, central banks were actually doing the opposite: buying a massive amount of dollars to offset the price effect."
highly recommended reading: morgan stanley
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
van Gecko 23:03 GMT December 26, 2006
Specs are still holding near record Dollar shorts & fishes are tired of waiting for dips & now long euro & GBP above the current price.. prime baits for holiday sharks..
//"hong kong 10:58 GMT December 24, 2006
van Gecko 00:38 GMT December 23
any special reasons for medium term EURO, GBP buyers to reverse below 1.366 and 2.01?? or for medium term sellers to sell below said levels??"//
do pigs need special reasons to roll in dung?? what makes you think real money players manage their trades based on the herd's fixation levels? mid-term Fx MakeEasy delusion?
Specs are still holding near record Dollar shorts & fishes are tired of waiting for dips & now long euro & GBP above the current price.. prime baits for holiday sharks..
//"hong kong 10:58 GMT December 24, 2006
van Gecko 00:38 GMT December 23
any special reasons for medium term EURO, GBP buyers to reverse below 1.366 and 2.01?? or for medium term sellers to sell below said levels??"//
do pigs need special reasons to roll in dung?? what makes you think real money players manage their trades based on the herd's fixation levels? mid-term Fx MakeEasy delusion?
Saturday, December 23, 2006
van Gecko 00:38 GMT December 23
Season's Greetings & a Prosperous New Year to all my Friends.. & enjoy a nice holiday ride aboard the euro 1.2888, GBP 1.9088 trains..
Season's Greetings & a Prosperous New Year to all my Friends.. & enjoy a nice holiday ride aboard the euro 1.2888, GBP 1.9088 trains..
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
van Gecko 09:55 GMT December 20, 2006
Athens MK 09:04.. GBP/JPY must continue to rise above 234 while USD/JPY stays in a side to down bias in order for Cable to have a shot at 1.98/2.00 near term.. that being said, it had failed on all mid-term extensions up to the 1.93/2.00 zone over the past 25 years with an average correction of 25 figures after each failure.. imo yesterday's move was a cross induced 2 fig aberration..
"The Trend is your Friend.. until it comes to an Inflection End.."
Athens MK 09:04 GMT December 20, 2006
If cable is to maintain it's bullish rise then it becomes important that we have a close 1.9640 level at the end of the day in the US markets. If not then a run at the 1.9420+ area becomes more likely....
What picture is emerging for the end of the week has two scenarios:
1) A stronger sell momentum emerges for the next two weeks if price stays between 1.9850-1.9650 targeting the 1.9150-70
2) A break-out occurs at 2.0 and all bets are off...
What are your thoughts and what can you add? This is for discussion purposes...
Athens MK 09:04.. GBP/JPY must continue to rise above 234 while USD/JPY stays in a side to down bias in order for Cable to have a shot at 1.98/2.00 near term.. that being said, it had failed on all mid-term extensions up to the 1.93/2.00 zone over the past 25 years with an average correction of 25 figures after each failure.. imo yesterday's move was a cross induced 2 fig aberration..
"The Trend is your Friend.. until it comes to an Inflection End.."
Athens MK 09:04 GMT December 20, 2006
If cable is to maintain it's bullish rise then it becomes important that we have a close 1.9640 level at the end of the day in the US markets. If not then a run at the 1.9420+ area becomes more likely....
What picture is emerging for the end of the week has two scenarios:
1) A stronger sell momentum emerges for the next two weeks if price stays between 1.9850-1.9650 targeting the 1.9150-70
2) A break-out occurs at 2.0 and all bets are off...
What are your thoughts and what can you add? This is for discussion purposes...
Friday, December 15, 2006
euro 1.3180->1.3112->1.3061, GBP 1.9660->1.9570->1.9499, Gold 629->614
London Gooner 22:58 GMT December 15, 2006
EURUSD closing 100 pips above breakout 1.2970 level. As the market coming back to a breakout level and commentators calling for more USD weakness, better be carefull as nobody knows it this year USD bear run is a correction or not to 2005 USD bull run.
If a high was left less then 300 pips below 1.3660 it won't be seen for a while as it means (lower high) and as we have seen so many times poeple get carried away, human nature. So nothing wrong with that.
Any return to below 1.2970 by year end will cause for a recall on 1.36+ and calls to 1.16-
FW CS 11:29 GMT December 15, 2006
van Gecko 06:09 GMT December 15, 2006
seems like human nature doesn't change even after a cover story gets big exposure. I am suspecting that a Euro topping pattern will look like the bottom pattern- multiple right shoulders in the SHS top. And I am beginnig to suspect that top we saw will not be seen for quite a long time to come
van Gecko 11:19 GMT December 15, 2006
Athens MK 10:53.. thank you for the good reads on her majesty..
cheers..
Athens MK 10:53 GMT December 15, 2006
van Gecko 10:51 GMT December 15, 2006
I like how you said that... :)
van Gecko 10:51 GMT December 15, 2006
1st bounce off the 21dma yeilded a 150 pip dead cat bounce.. 2nd bounce yielded 40 pips.. 21dma clusters penetrated & dipping..
looks like next week's "1.2888 Xmas train" now just getting under way.. looking for more passengers when those New York & Chicago Bears finish their morning coffee..
1.3170 -->1.3070* ~-->1.2888*
van Gecko 06:09 GMT December 15, 2006
FW CS 04:37.. looks like that Economist cover pic is getting good exposure lately.. however, specs are still holding record Dollar shorts even with the dollar now poking its head above the 21day ma clusters from the recent 82 lows.. euro weekly below 1.31 could give bulls & bears a chance to sing jingle bells next week on-board the 1.2888 Xmas train under the shadow of consecutive weekly red candles on top of a big vacuum..
"10:18 GMT December 6, 2006
prime "V" correction/reversal set-up for the Euro & GBP train.."
FW CS 04:37 GMT December 15, 2006
look a lot more at sentiment as well and try to go against the majority specs whenever possible. Liquidating times is when you catch the most pips.
Hard to find a $ bull anywhere now. That is a sign of a bottom.
van Gecko 04:55 GMT December 15, 2006
ab.. frequent trading + carrying positions with -'ve daily interest when a market doesn't move is akin to h'issing good dollar into the wind.. unless one is a rare trading monkeys who can consistently out-smart the market noises..
hong kong seek.. looks like you're quite new here.. hope you'll stick around long enough to witness many more risk-adjusted Forward BS besides that one.. LOL
hk ab 03:06 GMT December 15, 2006
Gecko//are you recommending a sell here and wait sub 600 to close?
long gold has only 1 problem with me in which I need to pay more interests.
van Gecko 02:16 GMT December 15, 2006
be patient ab.. gold is in its seasonal snooze mode..
once the year-end/Q1 volatility picks up below 615, you may have lots of wonderful sub 600 opportunities to "pig-out" on the yellow metal to ring in the Year of the Pig..;)
hk ab 00:34 GMT December 15, 2006
cant' get cheap gold under 625.....
London Gooner 22:58 GMT December 15, 2006
EURUSD closing 100 pips above breakout 1.2970 level. As the market coming back to a breakout level and commentators calling for more USD weakness, better be carefull as nobody knows it this year USD bear run is a correction or not to 2005 USD bull run.
If a high was left less then 300 pips below 1.3660 it won't be seen for a while as it means (lower high) and as we have seen so many times poeple get carried away, human nature. So nothing wrong with that.
Any return to below 1.2970 by year end will cause for a recall on 1.36+ and calls to 1.16-
FW CS 11:29 GMT December 15, 2006
van Gecko 06:09 GMT December 15, 2006
seems like human nature doesn't change even after a cover story gets big exposure. I am suspecting that a Euro topping pattern will look like the bottom pattern- multiple right shoulders in the SHS top. And I am beginnig to suspect that top we saw will not be seen for quite a long time to come
van Gecko 11:19 GMT December 15, 2006
Athens MK 10:53.. thank you for the good reads on her majesty..
cheers..
Athens MK 10:53 GMT December 15, 2006
van Gecko 10:51 GMT December 15, 2006
I like how you said that... :)
van Gecko 10:51 GMT December 15, 2006
1st bounce off the 21dma yeilded a 150 pip dead cat bounce.. 2nd bounce yielded 40 pips.. 21dma clusters penetrated & dipping..
looks like next week's "1.2888 Xmas train" now just getting under way.. looking for more passengers when those New York & Chicago Bears finish their morning coffee..
1.3170 -->1.3070* ~-->1.2888*
van Gecko 06:09 GMT December 15, 2006
FW CS 04:37.. looks like that Economist cover pic is getting good exposure lately.. however, specs are still holding record Dollar shorts even with the dollar now poking its head above the 21day ma clusters from the recent 82 lows.. euro weekly below 1.31 could give bulls & bears a chance to sing jingle bells next week on-board the 1.2888 Xmas train under the shadow of consecutive weekly red candles on top of a big vacuum..
"10:18 GMT December 6, 2006
prime "V" correction/reversal set-up for the Euro & GBP train.."
FW CS 04:37 GMT December 15, 2006
look a lot more at sentiment as well and try to go against the majority specs whenever possible. Liquidating times is when you catch the most pips.
Hard to find a $ bull anywhere now. That is a sign of a bottom.
van Gecko 04:55 GMT December 15, 2006
ab.. frequent trading + carrying positions with -'ve daily interest when a market doesn't move is akin to h'issing good dollar into the wind.. unless one is a rare trading monkeys who can consistently out-smart the market noises..
hong kong seek.. looks like you're quite new here.. hope you'll stick around long enough to witness many more risk-adjusted Forward BS besides that one.. LOL
hk ab 03:06 GMT December 15, 2006
Gecko//are you recommending a sell here and wait sub 600 to close?
long gold has only 1 problem with me in which I need to pay more interests.
van Gecko 02:16 GMT December 15, 2006
be patient ab.. gold is in its seasonal snooze mode..
once the year-end/Q1 volatility picks up below 615, you may have lots of wonderful sub 600 opportunities to "pig-out" on the yellow metal to ring in the Year of the Pig..;)
hk ab 00:34 GMT December 15, 2006
cant' get cheap gold under 625.....
Thursday, December 14, 2006
hong kong nt 16:20 GMT December 14, 2006
-- GBP 1.958 maybe the low in rest of this week..fwiw..
Singapore FS 14:35 GMT December 14, 2006
for euro, anything under 1.3150 is good for 1.36 and beyond, i guess we won't see under 1.30 anymore this year
van Gecko 13:35 GMT December 14, 2006
in addition to the current record spec shorts on the Dollar, most fishes are getting tired of waiting for BOD & are now net long euro & GBP.. the market setting up for lots of blood transfusion near term..
.. Society & markets will not function well without gullibility..
van Gecko 12:06 GMT December 14, 2006
Sydney ACC 10:22.. interesting piece..
Singapore FS 10:24.. imo most traders are spinning their pip'less wheels in fx & don't have the discipline or resource to survive long enough in this cesspool to worry about a 500 pip move in either direction.. it's sad, but true..
but then again, you could be an exception..
Singapore FS 11:21 GMT December 14, 2006
nt, don't you think we have plenty of master hui's followers with us here which means euro beyond 1.36 and gbp beyond 2 are the next big things?
levels are still valid, gbp 1.9640 and 1.9590 support for 1.98/1.99, still BOD
Singapore FS 10:24 GMT December 14, 2006
van Gecko 10:10 GMT December 14, 2006
gecko, i think most traders don't have pocket deep enough anyway for more than 500 pips in wrong direction, so if we are to go 500 pips more to the upside from here to 2.01xx for gbp, then shorting gbp here would kill most
Sydney ACC 10:22 GMT December 14, 2006
van Gecko 10:10 GMT December 14, 2006
In the Times ,
Anatole Kaletsky, wrote that Brian Marber had developed a law with regard to forex rates when they reach a long-term high/low target such as with GBP/USD now.
"when a currency reaches within 1 per cent of a previous important high, it enters a “twilight zone” from which it could easily emerge in either direction — and as soon as it does emerge, with a move of 2 per cent or more, that establishes the new trend. "
Whether you agree or not makes interesting reading.
van Gecko 10:10 GMT December 14, 2006
Sydney ACC 09:51.. the average correction after any GBP extension within the 1.90/2.00 band over the last 25 years is aprox. 28 figures.. so 1.68 is within the range..
Sydney ACC 09:51 GMT December 14, 2006
Not to say I agree, but Lehmanns and Goldmans both issued recommendations this week for clients to sell sterling on a lomg-term basis using derivative instruments.
There was an article in the Telegraph earlier this week:
One of them called it down to USD 1.68.
van Gecko 09:29 GMT December 14, 2006
GBP at these levels may represent a rare limited window of opportunity for mid & long term players to sell at levels not seen for the last decade & may not be seen again for the next decade to come.. a Sell & Snooze theme for the next 10 to 25 years.. and where her majesty go, cousin Euro & others will follow like Pavlov's dogs for they all dance in a macro same direction vs the Dollar with lead lag steps..
Cheerios for her majesty's brave short marching soldiers....
euro@1.3250 GBP@1.9700
hk ooozmeeh 09:08 GMT December 14, 2006
Athens MK 08:50 GMT December 14, 2006
..checked the trendline mate..but the way I see it, it’s a case of resistance becomes the support thing proven by this weeks low (1.94650) which hit the line and bounce back. This trendline which now acts support is suggestive that the weekly trend is bullish. Only the condition that you claim and I agree ….”and if we have a close for the week below that level could start to pave the way down for cable to the 1.92 first and then 1.85…’ will change my view and might signal that the bull trend is over.
…Your view on this matter is still respected but this is just my very honest opinion on that weekly chart of cable, sir… good luck and good trades to you mate…
Athens MK 08:50 GMT December 14, 2006
For those of you that are trendline friendly take a look on the weekly chart and draw the tops from 06/24/05 until today. You will see some interst at the intersection which is around the 1.9440-66- level and if we have a close for the week below that level could start to pave the way down for cable to the 1.92 first and then 1.85.... Of course this is some time away but for discussion sake looks interesting.
Athens MK 08:35 GMT December 14, 2006
Good morning.... Just arrived at the office and I am taking a quick look at cable. So far I see that we are getting set up nicely for a sell bias. Consolidation has been occuring the last couple of days. About 10 hours ago we have enter a stronger sell bias and potentially today or tomorrow a nice sell signal will occur for an attack on the 1.9460-70 level.....
I know of some systems that are actually putting in sell orders at the level 1.9680-1.9750 with S/L at 2.xxx looking for 1.9610 1st profit
1.9555 2nd profit
1.9466 3rd profit
Stop/Loss 2.xxx
-- GBP 1.958 maybe the low in rest of this week..fwiw..
Singapore FS 14:35 GMT December 14, 2006
for euro, anything under 1.3150 is good for 1.36 and beyond, i guess we won't see under 1.30 anymore this year
van Gecko 13:35 GMT December 14, 2006
in addition to the current record spec shorts on the Dollar, most fishes are getting tired of waiting for BOD & are now net long euro & GBP.. the market setting up for lots of blood transfusion near term..
.. Society & markets will not function well without gullibility..
van Gecko 12:06 GMT December 14, 2006
Sydney ACC 10:22.. interesting piece..
Singapore FS 10:24.. imo most traders are spinning their pip'less wheels in fx & don't have the discipline or resource to survive long enough in this cesspool to worry about a 500 pip move in either direction.. it's sad, but true..
but then again, you could be an exception..
Singapore FS 11:21 GMT December 14, 2006
nt, don't you think we have plenty of master hui's followers with us here which means euro beyond 1.36 and gbp beyond 2 are the next big things?
levels are still valid, gbp 1.9640 and 1.9590 support for 1.98/1.99, still BOD
Singapore FS 10:24 GMT December 14, 2006
van Gecko 10:10 GMT December 14, 2006
gecko, i think most traders don't have pocket deep enough anyway for more than 500 pips in wrong direction, so if we are to go 500 pips more to the upside from here to 2.01xx for gbp, then shorting gbp here would kill most
Sydney ACC 10:22 GMT December 14, 2006
van Gecko 10:10 GMT December 14, 2006
In the Times ,
Anatole Kaletsky, wrote that Brian Marber had developed a law with regard to forex rates when they reach a long-term high/low target such as with GBP/USD now.
"when a currency reaches within 1 per cent of a previous important high, it enters a “twilight zone” from which it could easily emerge in either direction — and as soon as it does emerge, with a move of 2 per cent or more, that establishes the new trend. "
Whether you agree or not makes interesting reading.
van Gecko 10:10 GMT December 14, 2006
Sydney ACC 09:51.. the average correction after any GBP extension within the 1.90/2.00 band over the last 25 years is aprox. 28 figures.. so 1.68 is within the range..
Sydney ACC 09:51 GMT December 14, 2006
Not to say I agree, but Lehmanns and Goldmans both issued recommendations this week for clients to sell sterling on a lomg-term basis using derivative instruments.
There was an article in the Telegraph earlier this week:
One of them called it down to USD 1.68.
van Gecko 09:29 GMT December 14, 2006
GBP at these levels may represent a rare limited window of opportunity for mid & long term players to sell at levels not seen for the last decade & may not be seen again for the next decade to come.. a Sell & Snooze theme for the next 10 to 25 years.. and where her majesty go, cousin Euro & others will follow like Pavlov's dogs for they all dance in a macro same direction vs the Dollar with lead lag steps..
Cheerios for her majesty's brave short marching soldiers....
euro@1.3250 GBP@1.9700
hk ooozmeeh 09:08 GMT December 14, 2006
Athens MK 08:50 GMT December 14, 2006
..checked the trendline mate..but the way I see it, it’s a case of resistance becomes the support thing proven by this weeks low (1.94650) which hit the line and bounce back. This trendline which now acts support is suggestive that the weekly trend is bullish. Only the condition that you claim and I agree ….”and if we have a close for the week below that level could start to pave the way down for cable to the 1.92 first and then 1.85…’ will change my view and might signal that the bull trend is over.
…Your view on this matter is still respected but this is just my very honest opinion on that weekly chart of cable, sir… good luck and good trades to you mate…
Athens MK 08:50 GMT December 14, 2006
For those of you that are trendline friendly take a look on the weekly chart and draw the tops from 06/24/05 until today. You will see some interst at the intersection which is around the 1.9440-66- level and if we have a close for the week below that level could start to pave the way down for cable to the 1.92 first and then 1.85.... Of course this is some time away but for discussion sake looks interesting.
Athens MK 08:35 GMT December 14, 2006
Good morning.... Just arrived at the office and I am taking a quick look at cable. So far I see that we are getting set up nicely for a sell bias. Consolidation has been occuring the last couple of days. About 10 hours ago we have enter a stronger sell bias and potentially today or tomorrow a nice sell signal will occur for an attack on the 1.9460-70 level.....
I know of some systems that are actually putting in sell orders at the level 1.9680-1.9750 with S/L at 2.xxx looking for 1.9610 1st profit
1.9555 2nd profit
1.9466 3rd profit
Stop/Loss 2.xxx
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
van Gecko 09:22 GMT December 13, 2006
those golden cross lovers had been milking Cable since mid year like my faithful Golden Retriever.. however, all trends will come to an eventual end & her majesty butting heads here with the 25 year resistances could do it..
"The Trend is your Friend.. until it comes to an Inflection End.."
van Gecko 08:09 GMT December 13, 2006
another failure infront of the recent highs will leave the euro GBP cousins in dire strait.. a "Go" for savvy mid-termers & Sydney ACC 20:51 GMT December 12, 2006 America's elite banks..
Sydney ACC 20:51 GMT December 12, 2006
US banks predict sterling set to crash
America's elite banks are expecting sterling to plummet next year after its meteoric rise to near $2 this autumn, believing Britain's growth surge to be well past its sell-by-date. Goldman Sach has advised sophisticated investors take out a "short" position against pound on the derviatves markets as its top trade for 2007, a bet that the currency will fall.
"The UK remains the largest current account deficit country in Western Europe, with a substantially overvalued currency - about 13pc on a trade-weighted basis," said the bank in a client note.
America's top banks expect the pound to plummet
those golden cross lovers had been milking Cable since mid year like my faithful Golden Retriever.. however, all trends will come to an eventual end & her majesty butting heads here with the 25 year resistances could do it..
"The Trend is your Friend.. until it comes to an Inflection End.."
van Gecko 08:09 GMT December 13, 2006
another failure infront of the recent highs will leave the euro GBP cousins in dire strait.. a "Go" for savvy mid-termers & Sydney ACC 20:51 GMT December 12, 2006 America's elite banks..
Sydney ACC 20:51 GMT December 12, 2006
US banks predict sterling set to crash
America's elite banks are expecting sterling to plummet next year after its meteoric rise to near $2 this autumn, believing Britain's growth surge to be well past its sell-by-date. Goldman Sach has advised sophisticated investors take out a "short" position against pound on the derviatves markets as its top trade for 2007, a bet that the currency will fall.
"The UK remains the largest current account deficit country in Western Europe, with a substantially overvalued currency - about 13pc on a trade-weighted basis," said the bank in a client note.
America's top banks expect the pound to plummet
Saturday, December 09, 2006
van Gecko 00:02 GMT December 10, 2006
singapore sp 17:05 GMT December 9, hope you're fine, nice to see you again..
FW CS 14:58 GMT December 9, that Economist cover pic may had rallied some top feeding Ducks & injected some liquidity on Friday before the dive by euro & cousins..
"xxxx xxxx xx 15:50 GMT December 8, 2006
too many players buying dollar now??"
gl..
austin mw 00:38 GMT December 9, don't know yet mw.. lets see how the market unfold and wait for those after the fact explanations.. however, the Forward BS Risk model is looking for follow-through.. Euro could open down another 1/2 fig in Sydney after both camps have a chance to digest the move.. have a nice one
singapore sp 17:05 GMT December 9, 2006
van Gecko 23:51 GMT December 8, 2006
EXCELLENT CALL.
FW CS 14:58 GMT December 9, 2006
van gecko
when I posted those clips below a little over a week back I suspected your quacking duck indicator was getting very loud at that time. Looks like the ducks all lined up and quacked their last on Friday. That looked like a buying climax to me. Euro 1.29 would be very reasonable on the downside to me before a reload long. Not sure yet how deep yet l just hold and then play turns
....................................................................
FW CS 14:29 GMT December 1, 2006
van gecko 9:01
I am thinking that buying Euro or Pound around here may be a little expensive no new longs at least and trail any old longs. Still think 1.34-1.36 on Euro b4 any major correction
FW CS 02:29 GMT December 1, 2006
van Gecko 23:57 thanks for the kind words
Is your quacking duck indicator getting louder yet? I was thinking 1.34-1.36 temporary Euro top and we are close now.
Medium term scenario something like this 1.35> 1.29 (not sure yet how deep)>1.40
austin mw 00:38 GMT December 9, 2006
van Gecko
I take it your in my camp that this USD move
from last week was a fluke? Unlike the ifo
that broke on Thanksgiving the NFP did it on
full throttle..
gw/e gt gecko
singapore sp 17:05 GMT December 9, hope you're fine, nice to see you again..
FW CS 14:58 GMT December 9, that Economist cover pic may had rallied some top feeding Ducks & injected some liquidity on Friday before the dive by euro & cousins..
"xxxx xxxx xx 15:50 GMT December 8, 2006
too many players buying dollar now??"
gl..
austin mw 00:38 GMT December 9, don't know yet mw.. lets see how the market unfold and wait for those after the fact explanations.. however, the Forward BS Risk model is looking for follow-through.. Euro could open down another 1/2 fig in Sydney after both camps have a chance to digest the move.. have a nice one
singapore sp 17:05 GMT December 9, 2006
van Gecko 23:51 GMT December 8, 2006
EXCELLENT CALL.
FW CS 14:58 GMT December 9, 2006
van gecko
when I posted those clips below a little over a week back I suspected your quacking duck indicator was getting very loud at that time. Looks like the ducks all lined up and quacked their last on Friday. That looked like a buying climax to me. Euro 1.29 would be very reasonable on the downside to me before a reload long. Not sure yet how deep yet l just hold and then play turns
....................................................................
FW CS 14:29 GMT December 1, 2006
van gecko 9:01
I am thinking that buying Euro or Pound around here may be a little expensive no new longs at least and trail any old longs. Still think 1.34-1.36 on Euro b4 any major correction
FW CS 02:29 GMT December 1, 2006
van Gecko 23:57 thanks for the kind words
Is your quacking duck indicator getting louder yet? I was thinking 1.34-1.36 temporary Euro top and we are close now.
Medium term scenario something like this 1.35> 1.29 (not sure yet how deep)>1.40
austin mw 00:38 GMT December 9, 2006
van Gecko
I take it your in my camp that this USD move
from last week was a fluke? Unlike the ifo
that broke on Thanksgiving the NFP did it on
full throttle..
gw/e gt gecko
Friday, December 08, 2006
van Gecko 23:51 GMT December 8, 2006
"10:18 GMT December 6, 2006
prime "V" correction/reversal set-up for the Euro & GBP train..
looks like pending Euro & GBP train wrecks.."
Some over-loaded Dollar bears were "saved" by the Friday bell.. looks like a vely pleasant w/e to digest the kinetics of this week's move..
look out below!
Euro 1.3364->1.3193.. GBP 1.9723->1.9519
Sydney ACC 16:58 GMT December 8, 2006
this is incredible, has anyone got a credible explanation, I haved never seen currencies move so much in botgh directions.
Extrapolate cable's range moves today and its 400 points, with the last 200 coming in the last half hour
FW CS 16:58 GMT December 8, 2006
Grandaddy bulltrap in the Euro that looked like a buying climax
Geneva 16:52 GMT December 8, 2006
cleaning time , bye euro
"10:18 GMT December 6, 2006
prime "V" correction/reversal set-up for the Euro & GBP train..
looks like pending Euro & GBP train wrecks.."
Some over-loaded Dollar bears were "saved" by the Friday bell.. looks like a vely pleasant w/e to digest the kinetics of this week's move..
look out below!
Euro 1.3364->1.3193.. GBP 1.9723->1.9519
Sydney ACC 16:58 GMT December 8, 2006
this is incredible, has anyone got a credible explanation, I haved never seen currencies move so much in botgh directions.
Extrapolate cable's range moves today and its 400 points, with the last 200 coming in the last half hour
FW CS 16:58 GMT December 8, 2006
Grandaddy bulltrap in the Euro that looked like a buying climax
Geneva 16:52 GMT December 8, 2006
cleaning time , bye euro
Thursday, December 07, 2006
The Dollar Index
Jan 05 81.06
Jan 06 84.44
Feb 06 85.22
Mar 06 85.17
Apr 06 84.05
May 06 80.77
Jun 06 81.66
Jul 06 82.09
Aug 06 81.33
Sep 06 81.75
Oct 06 82.52
Nov 06 81.62
There is almost a magic number to the dollar index. Since the U.S. dollar became a fiat currency in 1971, the U.S. dollar index has generally stayed above 80. In fact, 80 is like the major support for the dollar index. It has only traded below 80 for 13 days of its 34 year history. So if the dollar should fall below that level and do so for a significant amount of time, our currency might be in real danger of a free fall. Remember, there are major currency players all over the world who look at long term charts and should they see the dollar fall below 80 for a significant period, it’s a danger. And should it fall below its all time low of 78.33, then every currency trader in the world, every hedge fund, every derivative issuer, every banker, and every holder of US Dollars and US Dollar denominated instruments of any kind would literally be flying blind. (Incidentally, I track the major currency dollar index and not the 17 major trading partner’s index).
With that little scare in mind, and many people are aware of it because of the IMF evaluation of the dollar, let me remind you that the dollar has not fallen below 80. More importantly, there is a lot of fear about the dollar and that usually signals a turning point. And perhaps most significantly, the cover of the Economist magazine recently features the falling dollar as a major headline. This is usually means that the dollar is due for a rally.
Right now there is no currency around to replace the dollar. It’s not going to be the Euro and I don’t think a major Asian currency becoming the world’s reserve is very close.
Van Tharp.
Jan 05 81.06
Jan 06 84.44
Feb 06 85.22
Mar 06 85.17
Apr 06 84.05
May 06 80.77
Jun 06 81.66
Jul 06 82.09
Aug 06 81.33
Sep 06 81.75
Oct 06 82.52
Nov 06 81.62
There is almost a magic number to the dollar index. Since the U.S. dollar became a fiat currency in 1971, the U.S. dollar index has generally stayed above 80. In fact, 80 is like the major support for the dollar index. It has only traded below 80 for 13 days of its 34 year history. So if the dollar should fall below that level and do so for a significant amount of time, our currency might be in real danger of a free fall. Remember, there are major currency players all over the world who look at long term charts and should they see the dollar fall below 80 for a significant period, it’s a danger. And should it fall below its all time low of 78.33, then every currency trader in the world, every hedge fund, every derivative issuer, every banker, and every holder of US Dollars and US Dollar denominated instruments of any kind would literally be flying blind. (Incidentally, I track the major currency dollar index and not the 17 major trading partner’s index).
With that little scare in mind, and many people are aware of it because of the IMF evaluation of the dollar, let me remind you that the dollar has not fallen below 80. More importantly, there is a lot of fear about the dollar and that usually signals a turning point. And perhaps most significantly, the cover of the Economist magazine recently features the falling dollar as a major headline. This is usually means that the dollar is due for a rally.
Right now there is no currency around to replace the dollar. It’s not going to be the Euro and I don’t think a major Asian currency becoming the world’s reserve is very close.
Van Tharp.
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
van Gecko 12:38 GMT December 6, 2006
"it had been over a quarter century since GBP last visited the 2.00 moonscapes and all 6+ fig monthly extensions up to the 16 year range high 1.93/1.98 band are the end of the line for her majesty's bull soldiers..
so, with the odds stacked against her majesty poking its head above the 16 year range high, what are the odds for euro landing up at 1.36 again this year?"
FW CS 12:24 GMT December 6, 2006
I think Gecko means a V-top. And I think the possibility is very strong.
The Economist cover article this week could be affecting $ as it was a bearish $ cover and these guys have never been right.
Cannes Oil man 10:51 GMT December 6, 2006
van Gecko
Oily , in your camp now.
Out in the park with the kids for a few hours..
gl to us then.
van Gecko 10:45 GMT December 6, 2006
Lahore FM 10:35..;) I like our odds.. gl
Lahore FM 10:35 GMT December 6, 2006
Gecko,it may just as well be.gtgl.
van Gecko 10:18 GMT December 6, 2006
prime "V" correction/reversal set-up for the Euro & GBP train..
looks like pending Euro & GBP train wrecks..
euro@1.3310 GBP@1.9720
"it had been over a quarter century since GBP last visited the 2.00 moonscapes and all 6+ fig monthly extensions up to the 16 year range high 1.93/1.98 band are the end of the line for her majesty's bull soldiers..
so, with the odds stacked against her majesty poking its head above the 16 year range high, what are the odds for euro landing up at 1.36 again this year?"
FW CS 12:24 GMT December 6, 2006
I think Gecko means a V-top. And I think the possibility is very strong.
The Economist cover article this week could be affecting $ as it was a bearish $ cover and these guys have never been right.
Cannes Oil man 10:51 GMT December 6, 2006
van Gecko
Oily , in your camp now.
Out in the park with the kids for a few hours..
gl to us then.
van Gecko 10:45 GMT December 6, 2006
Lahore FM 10:35..;) I like our odds.. gl
Lahore FM 10:35 GMT December 6, 2006
Gecko,it may just as well be.gtgl.
van Gecko 10:18 GMT December 6, 2006
prime "V" correction/reversal set-up for the Euro & GBP train..
looks like pending Euro & GBP train wrecks..
euro@1.3310 GBP@1.9720
Friday, December 01, 2006
the Falling Dollar on Economist Covers
EU ZORRO 18:48 GMT December 1, 2006
shanghai bc 18:38..
...I feel the same....IMO market will test CB's next weeks.....
...hope to see gold benefict from this story too.....
...would like to add that imo, it will be very dificult to buy EUROS again below 1,30 in the next year...
shanghai bc 18:38 GMT December 1, 2006
In all probability,this forex train from mid-Oct is unlikely to stop and reverse without cb interventions at some stage..It is at its early stage so far..Dolar Index 80 is a fair target,to start with..Whether Dollar can hold its multi-decade support 80 is a good question too..No matter what,do not stand in front of the train.
euro @1.3344 GBP @1.9846
van Gecko 09:01 GMT December 1, 2006
FW CS 02:29.. how much more fuel is left in the euro tank on this run will depend on her majesty's performance up here against the 25 year resistances and it may be of interest to note euro, GBP & their lead Crosses all started their 2 previous Thanksgiving runs from much lower historical levels & resistances then the current run.. that said, quacking ducks do get lucky once in a while as FxWorksInWackyWays..
FW CS 02:29 GMT December 1, 2006
van Gecko 23:57 thanks for the kind words
Is your quacking duck indicator getting louder yet? I was thinking 1.34-1.36 temporary Euro top and we are close now.
Medium term scenario something like this 1.35> 1.29 (not sure yet how deep)>1.40
Cannes Oil man 00:42 GMT December 1, 2006
van Gecko 23:57 GMT November 30, 2006
thanks gecko..
But , end of month is closed for most institutional , some close tomorrow at 11GMT.
What does it mean , u will ask...Well E$ from here might not be as rosy as it was..Tomorrow will be the day , of profit taking (even though that can be done if a bad news of us$ without too much of a move down) , and then from there , the real show begins..
Push or no push from here..We will know tom.
What i see is that fund books closed exactly when E$ reached 63..
Since then it's been stumbling a little..
You know me well enough , that when everyone calls for 2.10 in GBP$ , i start looking for other possibilities..The move tomorrow , will be decisive.
Still dollar bearish atm..But with my FX gloves on.
gl gt
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
EU ZORRO 18:48 GMT December 1, 2006
shanghai bc 18:38..
...I feel the same....IMO market will test CB's next weeks.....
...hope to see gold benefict from this story too.....
...would like to add that imo, it will be very dificult to buy EUROS again below 1,30 in the next year...
shanghai bc 18:38 GMT December 1, 2006
In all probability,this forex train from mid-Oct is unlikely to stop and reverse without cb interventions at some stage..It is at its early stage so far..Dolar Index 80 is a fair target,to start with..Whether Dollar can hold its multi-decade support 80 is a good question too..No matter what,do not stand in front of the train.
euro @1.3344 GBP @1.9846
van Gecko 09:01 GMT December 1, 2006
FW CS 02:29.. how much more fuel is left in the euro tank on this run will depend on her majesty's performance up here against the 25 year resistances and it may be of interest to note euro, GBP & their lead Crosses all started their 2 previous Thanksgiving runs from much lower historical levels & resistances then the current run.. that said, quacking ducks do get lucky once in a while as FxWorksInWackyWays..
FW CS 02:29 GMT December 1, 2006
van Gecko 23:57 thanks for the kind words
Is your quacking duck indicator getting louder yet? I was thinking 1.34-1.36 temporary Euro top and we are close now.
Medium term scenario something like this 1.35> 1.29 (not sure yet how deep)>1.40
Cannes Oil man 00:42 GMT December 1, 2006
van Gecko 23:57 GMT November 30, 2006
thanks gecko..
But , end of month is closed for most institutional , some close tomorrow at 11GMT.
What does it mean , u will ask...Well E$ from here might not be as rosy as it was..Tomorrow will be the day , of profit taking (even though that can be done if a bad news of us$ without too much of a move down) , and then from there , the real show begins..
Push or no push from here..We will know tom.
What i see is that fund books closed exactly when E$ reached 63..
Since then it's been stumbling a little..
You know me well enough , that when everyone calls for 2.10 in GBP$ , i start looking for other possibilities..The move tomorrow , will be decisive.
Still dollar bearish atm..But with my FX gloves on.
gl gt
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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