Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Thursday, August 31, 2006
van Gecko 14:08 GMT August 31, 2006
what is the matter with the euro? m/t dollar bears getting cold_feet_tist?
euro @1.2820 down from 1.2880
L.A. Igrok 13:31 GMT August 31, 2006
My view is based on statistical probability and nothing else. The statistics shows the following: the average yearly range on all majors is about 2000 pips. So far on the euro/usd it is less than 1200 and on the usd/jpy is less than 1100. At the same time Cable is almost done. So, we can expect either 1.38 on the eur/usd and 100 on the usd/jpy before year end(Where should be the Cable in such case? Above 2.00? Unlikely, on my view...) or the other projected extremes at 1.10 an 130 respectively. In this case cable is likely to stay inside it's current year range with next bottom somewhere at around 1.75. Also it is interesting to watch the USD/JPY. If it changes the direction of the main move of the year and breaks above 119.40 then 130 will be inavitable and likely to be reached in December.
L.A. Igrok 13:10 GMT August 31, 2006
It is simple. The rollovers based on LIBOR differentials (overnight interest) kill the profit of longer-term traders sitting on the EUR/USD longs. Targeting such levels as 1.32 into the year end for them means almost the same as they would get out of the market now and here.
L.A.Igrok 12:58 GMT August 31, 2006
I also guess that those long term traders who bought the euro/usd about 4 months ago at levels around 1.25-26 and still not making any profits are likely to run out of patience pretty soon.
L.A. Igrok 12:48 GMT August 31, 2006
Upside potential for the EUR/USD and Cable seems to be limited from here (1.2875 and 1.9085). However both are likely to make another 100-150 pips higher before turning down.
what is the matter with the euro? m/t dollar bears getting cold_feet_tist?
euro @1.2820 down from 1.2880
L.A. Igrok 13:31 GMT August 31, 2006
My view is based on statistical probability and nothing else. The statistics shows the following: the average yearly range on all majors is about 2000 pips. So far on the euro/usd it is less than 1200 and on the usd/jpy is less than 1100. At the same time Cable is almost done. So, we can expect either 1.38 on the eur/usd and 100 on the usd/jpy before year end(Where should be the Cable in such case? Above 2.00? Unlikely, on my view...) or the other projected extremes at 1.10 an 130 respectively. In this case cable is likely to stay inside it's current year range with next bottom somewhere at around 1.75. Also it is interesting to watch the USD/JPY. If it changes the direction of the main move of the year and breaks above 119.40 then 130 will be inavitable and likely to be reached in December.
L.A. Igrok 13:10 GMT August 31, 2006
It is simple. The rollovers based on LIBOR differentials (overnight interest) kill the profit of longer-term traders sitting on the EUR/USD longs. Targeting such levels as 1.32 into the year end for them means almost the same as they would get out of the market now and here.
L.A.Igrok 12:58 GMT August 31, 2006
I also guess that those long term traders who bought the euro/usd about 4 months ago at levels around 1.25-26 and still not making any profits are likely to run out of patience pretty soon.
L.A. Igrok 12:48 GMT August 31, 2006
Upside potential for the EUR/USD and Cable seems to be limited from here (1.2875 and 1.9085). However both are likely to make another 100-150 pips higher before turning down.
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
Syd 22:16 GMT August 30, 2006
USD / YEN - Uptrend to extend onto New Highs for the Year
by Max McKegg
AUG 30TH - USD/YEN has rallied nicely and remains on track for an advance onto new highs for the year (above 121.40), enroute to the 127.00 level over coming months
van Gecko 13:52 GMT August 30, 2006
Usd/Jpy_ Singarpore -> Sling ->target 127
_______________________________
USD / YEN - Uptrend to extend onto New Highs for the Year
by Max McKegg
AUG 30TH - USD/YEN has rallied nicely and remains on track for an advance onto new highs for the year (above 121.40), enroute to the 127.00 level over coming months
van Gecko 13:52 GMT August 30, 2006
Usd/Jpy_ Singarpore -> Sling ->target 127
_______________________________
Friday, August 25, 2006
van Gecko 08:39 GMT August 25, 2006
The Path of the Euro:
the Past,
bulls are getting excited at the apex of the 5 year bull triangle.. Specs at record long anticipating 1.35 to break to resume the march to 1.40.. 1.50
guess what happen after?
the Present,
bulls are very happy & getting excited again at the apex of another m/t bull triangle.. record longs anticipating 1.30 to break & looking for 1.33 - 1.40 again..
against this backdrop, may be the only positive factors going for the bears are good long & mid term Dollar divergent support @ USDX 84.50 plus major crosses exhibiting Dollar friendly bias..
the 'Future'
good size s/t stops below 1.27 along with m/t bull stops stacked below 1.26~1.24..
breaking below the s/t 1.26 target expose the m/t channel support with potential fast break down to ~1.24~
m/t targets below 1.24 -> 1.1850 <-> 1.1550 ~ 1.13
FwIwW..
The Path of the Euro:
the Past,
bulls are getting excited at the apex of the 5 year bull triangle.. Specs at record long anticipating 1.35 to break to resume the march to 1.40.. 1.50
guess what happen after?
the Present,
bulls are very happy & getting excited again at the apex of another m/t bull triangle.. record longs anticipating 1.30 to break & looking for 1.33 - 1.40 again..
against this backdrop, may be the only positive factors going for the bears are good long & mid term Dollar divergent support @ USDX 84.50 plus major crosses exhibiting Dollar friendly bias..
the 'Future'
good size s/t stops below 1.27 along with m/t bull stops stacked below 1.26~1.24..
breaking below the s/t 1.26 target expose the m/t channel support with potential fast break down to ~1.24~
m/t targets below 1.24 -> 1.1850 <-> 1.1550 ~ 1.13
FwIwW..
Thursday, August 10, 2006
Oakland daimyo 13:42 GMT August 10, 2006
FWIW: Wyckoff patterns suggest we have put in a mid-term top in both EUR/USDand GBP/USD. Likely to see continued distribution in short-term as composite operator has concluded buy campaign from earlier this year, sufficiently prepared for next move (trading range/ consolidation), and now looking to execute sell operations (markdown prices). This is my interpretation of the market cycles. So therefore, buying dollars despite what conventional wisdom says is "good bet" for next few months. Good Trades
FWIW: Wyckoff patterns suggest we have put in a mid-term top in both EUR/USDand GBP/USD. Likely to see continued distribution in short-term as composite operator has concluded buy campaign from earlier this year, sufficiently prepared for next move (trading range/ consolidation), and now looking to execute sell operations (markdown prices). This is my interpretation of the market cycles. So therefore, buying dollars despite what conventional wisdom says is "good bet" for next few months. Good Trades
Wednesday, August 02, 2006
sanfrancisco analyst 08:39 GMT August 2, 2006
van Gecko 07:22 GMT August 2, 2006 - Thank you very much Gecko, always nice to receive a compliment from you.
van Gecko 07:22 GMT August 2, 2006
Syd 06:27.. agree with Mr. Yamamoto.. with the Dollar teasing the bears just above the 84.50 magic line our noted forum c9X'er is getting excited again with gold & spitting out another "clear medium/long term" directional forecast for the Dollar.. :))
analyst 06:42.. good work.. eur/jpy & gbp/jpy are looking like Dollar's lead friends again..
sanfrancisco analyst 06:42 GMT August 2, 2006
EurJpy has fallen in line with projection noted below and bid/ask ratio cycle is now shifting upward. Existing probability 25% on longs from here, will increase to 50% as price trades above 146.80 and sticks, and 100% as (if) price trades above 147 and sticks. Expecting some shake and bake so orders are placed minimum 15 pips below rising market.
Syd 06:27 GMT August 2, 2006
FX players will be closely watching for clues on pace of future ECB rate hikes after ECB decision Thursday (where hike widely expected), but room for EUR/USD gains looks limited from here, says Nikko Citigroup currency strategist Masafumi Yamamoto. "There's no reason at the moment to increase the pace (of hikes)", amid signs of U.S., eurozone economic slowdown, he says; adds, fiscal tightening in Germany, Italy may contribute to slowing eurozone economy, in turn cooling pace of rate hikes, EUR gains. Says EUR/USD looking heavy, tips cap at 1.2870 this week. Nikko Citi
hong kong nt 16:30 GMT August 1, 2006
-- looking at USD/CHF monthly chart, price is trading below a falling 50 ma with a background of 17 times of consecutive rate hikes plus improving fundamentals, the medium/long term direction appears to be clear...
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
van Gecko 07:22 GMT August 2, 2006 - Thank you very much Gecko, always nice to receive a compliment from you.
van Gecko 07:22 GMT August 2, 2006
Syd 06:27.. agree with Mr. Yamamoto.. with the Dollar teasing the bears just above the 84.50 magic line our noted forum c9X'er is getting excited again with gold & spitting out another "clear medium/long term" directional forecast for the Dollar.. :))
analyst 06:42.. good work.. eur/jpy & gbp/jpy are looking like Dollar's lead friends again..
sanfrancisco analyst 06:42 GMT August 2, 2006
EurJpy has fallen in line with projection noted below and bid/ask ratio cycle is now shifting upward. Existing probability 25% on longs from here, will increase to 50% as price trades above 146.80 and sticks, and 100% as (if) price trades above 147 and sticks. Expecting some shake and bake so orders are placed minimum 15 pips below rising market.
Syd 06:27 GMT August 2, 2006
FX players will be closely watching for clues on pace of future ECB rate hikes after ECB decision Thursday (where hike widely expected), but room for EUR/USD gains looks limited from here, says Nikko Citigroup currency strategist Masafumi Yamamoto. "There's no reason at the moment to increase the pace (of hikes)", amid signs of U.S., eurozone economic slowdown, he says; adds, fiscal tightening in Germany, Italy may contribute to slowing eurozone economy, in turn cooling pace of rate hikes, EUR gains. Says EUR/USD looking heavy, tips cap at 1.2870 this week. Nikko Citi
hong kong nt 16:30 GMT August 1, 2006
-- looking at USD/CHF monthly chart, price is trading below a falling 50 ma with a background of 17 times of consecutive rate hikes plus improving fundamentals, the medium/long term direction appears to be clear...
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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