Gecko Global Analytics

van Gecko 14:08 GMT August 31, 2006
what is the matter with the euro? m/t dollar bears getting cold_feet_tist?

euro @1.2820 down from 1.2880

L.A. Igrok 13:31 GMT August 31, 2006
My view is based on statistical probability and nothing else. The statistics shows the following: the average yearly range on all majors is about 2000 pips. So far on the euro/usd it is less than 1200 and on the usd/jpy is less than 1100. At the same time Cable is almost done. So, we can expect either 1.38 on the eur/usd and 100 on the usd/jpy before year end(Where should be the Cable in such case? Above 2.00? Unlikely, on my view...) or the other projected extremes at 1.10 an 130 respectively. In this case cable is likely to stay inside it's current year range with next bottom somewhere at around 1.75. Also it is interesting to watch the USD/JPY. If it changes the direction of the main move of the year and breaks above 119.40 then 130 will be inavitable and likely to be reached in December.

L.A. Igrok 13:10 GMT August 31, 2006
It is simple. The rollovers based on LIBOR differentials (overnight interest) kill the profit of longer-term traders sitting on the EUR/USD longs. Targeting such levels as 1.32 into the year end for them means almost the same as they would get out of the market now and here.

L.A.Igrok 12:58 GMT August 31, 2006
I also guess that those long term traders who bought the euro/usd about 4 months ago at levels around 1.25-26 and still not making any profits are likely to run out of patience pretty soon.

L.A. Igrok 12:48 GMT August 31, 2006
Upside potential for the EUR/USD and Cable seems to be limited from here (1.2875 and 1.9085). However both are likely to make another 100-150 pips higher before turning down.