Gecko Global Analytics

van Gecko 10:11 GMT November 26, 2004
sa.. a close below 1.3150 would suggest euro may had seen a blow-off top for the rest of the year.. so instead of the recent one way play from 1.25, December could turn out to be a nice & friendly Jingle Bell month with both camps ringing each other's X'mas bells between the ranges 1.33 <->1.29 -> 1.29<->1.25..


nyc sa 09:44 GMT November 26, 2004
Hey Van Gecko , thnx for reply would be great to see 1.30 today , would u be buying the dips or sell the strength from 1.30?

van Gecko 09:32 GMT November 26, 2004
nyc sa.. once the scramble kicks into high gear plus a little nudge from those Men in Black..hmmm.. how about 1.30...?
today..

B.A. BOCA 09:29 GMT November 26, 2004
KL KL// a friendly tip: enjoy your winnings (it sounds like you made some today) with a nice dinner tonight. it makes no sense to *iss them into the wind...to quote a famous lizard..
GL

nyc sa 09:22 GMT November 26, 2004
Van Gecko ,how low u think euro can retrace after this huge move over the last month ? I understood u to say it will lose 10 big figures ,right ?

van Gecko 09:18 GMT November 26, 2004
acrophobia will kick in high gear below 1.3150..

Gaza Ibiza 08:35 GMT November 26, 2004
Rumors of SNB intervention!

LDN LDN 08:30 GMT November 26, 2004
Trader says early round of profit taking is giving the dollar bounce. US investment bank and large Swiss bank have been heavy sellers of EUR/USD above 1.33, UK clearer sold cable above 1.90 and several good names have been buying USD/CHF. seems some are clearing their books.


van Gecko 08:09 GMT November 26, 2004
looks like the "Buck Stops Here" order had been given..
some front running Dollar Bear Brigade members about to say "Thanks 4 Giving" to those Men in Black..
cheerios..



van Gecko 01:14 GMT November 26, 2004
Geneva.. vely good..:) see you again in a few years with another 70 figures plus carry interest of DollarChf locked up in your Swiss bank account..
Cheerios..


Geneva 01:00 GMT November 26, 2004
Thx all. Before going to take a sleep. JUST WATCH THAT DOLLAR INDEX IS AT DOUBLE BOTTOM OF 1995. Good night.

Brisbane L 00:56 GMT November 26, 2004
Geneva hi there I too remember you , they didnt half give you a lot of stick if I recall , but your laughing all the way to the bank now :-)

shanghai bc 00:54 GMT November 26, 2004
GENEVA --Long time no see..Nice to see you are fine and making great calls too..Hope you visit here more often from now on.

Geneva 00:50 GMT November 26, 2004
shanghai bc 00:47 GMT November 26, 2004
Yes its me, The one that bought euros arounds 0.90 t0 0.80.
And sell them big time today.

shanghai bc 00:47 GMT November 26, 2004
GENEVA -- Are you the same Geneva ,the jeweller,who used to post here some years ago please?.

Geneva 00:43 GMT November 26, 2004
You might start with option strategy, its not so easy to pick a top. My guess is that we will top between here
to 1.3475. And then fall very hard. WE SHOULD CORRECT THE ALL MOVE FROM 0.82 TO HERE........ Thats a lot. And trust me that the people that sell dollars and buy euros dont know why thay do it , the foloow the mass.

Geneva 00:29 GMT November 26, 2004
No 1.35 and no 1.40, This is the biggest trap in the history
of the forex market. and it will finish deadly and blody.
With today net euro bulls , it will turn south and HARD!!!!.

Be carfull.


London 19:11 GMT November 25, 2004
ECB ready to intervene if needed-monetary sources
Thu Nov 25, 2004 11:02 AM ET
By Stella Dawson, Chief ECB Correspondent
FRANKFURT, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Don't count the European Central Bank out when it comes to currency market intervention.

Discussions with euro zone monetary officials over the past week have shown that the ECB is watching the euro's climb extremely closely and would welcome an opportunity to put some two-way risk back into a market that now sees selling U.S. dollars as a one-way route to riches.

But the ECB would choose its timing very carefully, only jumping when euro buyers are looking overstretched and the market is ready for a turn, euro zone central banking and finance ministry officials told Reuters.

"ECB intervention is likely at some stage, but it has to take the market by surprise in order to be effective," one financial policymaker said.

The ECB would pursue "tactical" intervention, limited and well timed to deter the market from believing that dollar selling is a one-way bet, he said.

READY TO POUNCE

But for markets to be complacent would be risky.

Indeed, speculation has circulated in the currency market this week over whether the ECB might intervene over the next 36 hours at Thanksgiving.

Instead the successful central bank onslaught must ensure sure traders lose money. That requires lying quietly in wait and then pouncing when the time is right to consolidate an underlying market trend.

That may be what's happening now.

"This radio silence tells me the ECB is ready and waiting -- they know how to inflict damage," said Eric Chaney, head of European economic research at Morgan Stanley.