Gecko Global Analytics

Athens 15:25 GMT November 17, 2004
A general comment I posted on the political forum earlier today, which new traders may find it useful as reference (old guns can skip it as it is well known history):

Without saying that next year EUR/$ can't trade at 1.35 or 1.40, I think we must keep things in perspective. I wrote on Tuesday on TT that $/DEM lost 62% of its value when it hit 1.34 from 3.48 in 1985. However, during the first 3-4 years we had a very steep decline from 3.48 to 1.56which was a 52% devaluation. The rest of the move took much longer and the absolute bottom was seen in 1995 i.e. 10 years after the start of the decline and at that point we had a 62% devaluation. Coming now to the present picture, EUR/$ has already appreviated by almost 58% in 4 years. I am not implying that we need another 6 years but even here at this point the USD has lost from its best levels seen in 2000 almost what had lost in 10 years back then. This may not be a trading idea, but at least calls for caution when setting targets in levels and time.


van Gecko 14:36 GMT November 17, 2004
valdez.. imo that all moves are not created equal & can't be treated as equal..
those prior 1000 pip moves which you noted all occured near the beginning and at the mid point of the run up from 2002.. and in all cases they involve taking out some previously traversed resistances by the euro decending from its 1999 launched.. this time however, the recent 8 figure run up with euro taking out the previously non-traversed 1.29 multi-year cap in one shot (1.2850 was the old 1996 synthetic high) at/near a maturing multi-year trend should be viewed with caution by prudent m/t players..

Stockholm AGuy 13:44.. no problem.. i understand what you was referring to after a 2nd read..

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:45 GMT November 17, 2004
van Gecko 13:20 GMT November 17, 2004
1. ...while a straight up overshoot to 1.32 level can't be rule out, its highly unlikely without some kind of support from m/t money players..
2. ..so, any retracements from up here as long the 1.26 level is not violated on a weekly basis would be quite healthy for the euro & help to keep the bull run..

1. Respectfully, I didn't say nor imply a "straight up overshoot to 1.32.." Anyone realizes of course it'll have dips-retraces but I wouldn't say all the way to 1.23 as some here are hoping, & no retrace more than a 150-200 pips based on chart history from 2002.
2. But you will note 5 former straight up charges since 2002 in the 3 year chart, usually displaying one small retrace usually on the big 1000 pip moves. This move from 1.22 could be that very type of pattern, you have to admit, since it's happend 5 times in two years already. And yes, a nice retrace would be healthy to proceed past 1.32, I realize that and want to see it badly. This whole move "started" (matter of opinion) at 1.2250. Former upmoves involved from 1000 to 1500 pips. Let's say we're are at 1.3050 nowish. So this move sofar is 1.3050-1.2250=800 pips. As you see, it lacks between 200 - 700 pips of "maturing" into a typical big chart move for this pair. Right? So that's why 1.32 is in my sights. And beyond. It's just my model.

Van Gecko, I'll ignore as most here Stockholm aguy's usual arrogance, hope you do the same. I'm preparing an entry in Help Forum just for him..ready in 15-20 minutes, to avoid aguy-valdez/gecko tennis here on FF.Thanks for your critique amigo.

Stockholm AGuy 13:44 GMT November 17, 2004
van Gecko 13:20 GMT:

I seem to owe you an apology; apparently I attributed some comments to you which were actually written by somebody else (thought he was quoting you). Sorry about that.

Ldn 13:29 GMT November 17, 2004
van Gecko 13:20 yes it does and agree


van Gecko 13:20 GMT November 17, 2004
valdez.. thanks for your views amigo, funnymentals makes my head spin as i live in a world of 100% technical purity.. euro had risen 800+ pips from the October 1.22 baseline & had passed the non-traversed 1.29 multi-year cap in one shot (a vely rare occurance).. a back to back 2 month 10 figure ATR is also a rare sight for euro in recent years.. while a straight up overshoot to 1.32 level can't be rule out, its highly unlikely without some kind of support from m/t money players.. don't know about short termer movers targeting some option paid-outs, but i can't imagine any prudent real money folks positioning for the m/t would jump in with closed eyes to buy euro @ 1.30 in fear of missing another 200 pips.. so, any retracements from up here as long the 1.26 level is not violated on a weekly basis would be quite healthy for the euro & help to keep the bull run from 2002 intact..
for anyone who can move the buck down here, its not how you get in..the problem is how to recoupe those money spent plus getting out with profits when its time to unload..
Ldn.. hope this help you also..
cheers amigos..


quito_ecuador_valdez 12:13 GMT November 17, 2004
Van Gecko// Good morning amigo! My model says the €/$ uptrend from 2002 will permit 1.32 by 2nd week Dec. & not surprized if before. Trichet may growl - that's about all he can do successuflly to temporarily put off the inevitable..

intervention will be either non existant or temporary & possibly devestating to the € if carried to an extreme. When intervention starts, EU hurts, people complain. it stops. When it stops, and it will have to, that's a ticket to 1.32-1.40. The time frame for 1.32+ is variable with the EU intervention of course. Mid Dec is my guess. Remember folks, this is prediction..trend is your true friend..not predictions. Your thoughts/critique on this would be much appreciated Gecko.


Ldn 11:57 GMT November 17, 2004
van Gecko 11:53 hi there, how much higher to you envisage it (Euro)can go from here, realize its a crystal ball question but being the wizard that you are you may be able to answer it cheers


van Gecko 11:53 GMT November 17, 2004
valdez.. amigo, so its 1.32 - 1.34 - 1.35 or bust for you from here?

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:27 GMT November 17, 2004

I don't know if anyone remembers the E/$ triangle I mentioned here last week...time for another pop, either Friday or 1st half of this week.. maybe some took heed. Well, right on target, it popped. Sorry for the ones who ingnore my posts and are still waiting for a freeking E/$ retrace. The only retrace we'll have by my model is between 1.32 and 1.34 and that's only to form a double top. So go ahread and ignore that too. The trend which started 2002 has yet to be broken if one sees the big picture..3 year chart. I realize there are some here who do follow my posts. All I can do is to post.. I can't make you trade correctly.


van Gecko 10:31 GMT November 17, 2004
Bruxville Jim 09:57 most of the comments on this board offer good free entertainment value - little fishes possies have absolutely nothing to do with euro's path of least resistance.. these are battles waged by big fishes (with some big time losers turning into little fishes eventually).. most 'here today gone tommorrow' little fishes are swimming in a cesspool beyond their depth.. cheers

Helsinki iw 10:02 GMT November 17, 2004
Agree with jf and gecko that we are in a blow-off move that could be close to ending, time-wise. In actual size there is still room technically to see alot of weakness in the USD; EUR/USD 1,3470/80, CAD 1,1760/70, CHF 1,11/12 and JPY 103,30/40.

Bruxville Jim 09:57 GMT November 17, 2004
Bruxville Jim 15:50 GMT November 16, 2004
Judging from comments on this board - fishes have been building and are still building euro shorts. Therefore, the path of least resistance might appear to be UP...
Just got back to screen...
Sharks: "[Chop, Chop] Tasty, I want more!"


van Gecko 09:56 GMT November 17, 2004
Kamensk Andy 09:36.. lot easier for dollaryen to bounce up 200+ pips then to go down another 100 pips from these levels..
gl

Kamensk Andy 09:36 GMT November 17, 2004
Van Gecko - Good day. May i know your view on geisha please? TIA


van Gecko 09:32 GMT November 17, 2004
tk jf 09:14.. yes.. those presistent pushers are wasting ammo & injecting good liquidity into the gleeful hands of the sellers up here at these levels.. big time sellers realize these are rare opportunties to accumulate some el cheapo Dollars at unsustainable levels at little or NO risk & lotsa rewards..
cheerios..

tk jf 09:14 GMT November 17, 2004
ab - my trading strategy is clear now - wait for an acceleration and reversal of eurusd sell it then with stop above the high - pre-empting a high is too tough - if i have to wait 24 hours so be it - i thought we would have resolved this in nyk last night but it wasnt - i think eurusd will see 1.2750 soon - imo - usdyen cant comment again wait for people to stop out and the mkt reverse - feel like im happy to give away the next short term move for a larger one


van Gecko 08:40 GMT November 17, 2004
some pretty desperate warfares taking place here.. the ammo depots must be getting close to the redlines after 9 days of butting heads with the enemy forces.. patient practitioners of 'AAA' warfare tactics (Art of Ammo Allocation) would simply do a 'BRR' retreat here (Bailout, Regroup & Recruit) down to the 1.27 lines for a higher probability assault on the 1.30 enemies later..

"To achieve an advance that cannot be hampered, rush to his weak points. To achieve a withdrawal that cannot be pursued, depart with superior speed." Sun Tzu: The Art Of War