Gecko Global Analytics

van Gecko 15:43 GMT November 28, 2004
Spotforex NY 14:06.. previous Dollar trend reversals are characterized by sharp & sudden moves at market extremes..
the Dollar's 18 month run up from 1988 came to a sudden end in September/89 with a Usd/Chf secondary breakdown gap of 4 figures after closing up at the previous week's high with a very bullish reversal spike up close.. that gap was finally filled in April/2000, over a decade later..
in July/2001, the 1995 Dollar bull run came to a sudden & un-expected end after an impulsive weekly up spike & closed up near the week's extremes, next week the market open with Usd/Chf gapping down 260 pips.. that gap had never been filled & the Dollar had not looked back since that fateful July 4th weekend..

with last week's Dollar spike & close down at the extremes of another multi-year low set-up, just think what would happen if those Men in Black were to flood the market with Dollar bids 5 minutes before Sydney open its trading week..

but then again with the prevailing fundamentally weak underlying sentiment for the Dollar looking like a well done turkey after last week's big "Thank you vely much for Giving" spike down bar, the above scenario may be inconceivable this time around..
Cheerios for all..

Spotforex NY 14:06 GMT November 28, 2004
van Gecko 03:19

so true.....as this market moves into my second and third phase of intervention, these FCM will change the fill odds into their favor. Again those who are overleveraged will pay a steep, steep price on the first wrong move of 'rate check' rumors and solo intervention.

Friday's chop was only the tip of the iceberg.


van Gecko 03:19 GMT November 28, 2004
an immenient sign of things to come in this wild & wonderful world of FX.. greed & fear exemplified..

re 20:42 GMT November 26, 2004..
"What a session! Well, this was one day's trading that got away from me. There I was riding the eur/usd wave - buying, then selling, buying the selling. Within an 30 minutes I was up 500 pips, and loaded up with a nice sized possy for that major spike down from 3320.

All I had to do was sit tight and watch the pips pour in, but no, greedy f%^$%# idiot that I am adds to my positions, the orders stalled on the FXXCM terminal and didn't get filled until the bottom, the thing bounced back, and bang, I'm in the red."

anatomy of a Euro break down gap at a multi year high which may never be filled again;
when that immenient "the buck stops here" boom is lowered and euro gaps down 1 big figure in a blink of the eye, you can bet that all the working buy on dips & stop orders will be filled at the extreme low of the 1st gap if one is lucky.. (remember that NFP Friday in September?)
and when some big boys begin to panic & start the 1st rush to the exit doors with their multi yard stop orders with no takers, euro will gap down another figure..
as pandemonium sets in with more & more multi yard stop orders starts to pour in, the market could see euro down 5 big figures before the dust settle..
how does one spell 'greed & fear' again?