Gecko Global Analytics

London. 16:20 GMT November 19, 2004
van Gecko 16:02 thanks, take notice of your calls as they are spot on , maket as you say tends to lag a little but recall your Canadian one way back when it was in the high 25-30s

SanFrancisco TG 16:19 GMT November 19, 2004
Van Gecko - Surely your attention must be toward what you must do, but I for one do hope you will post more often at some point as you once did. Perhaps in time you will consider it a personal contribution and not pay attention to the negative elements. :)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:13 GMT November 19, 2004
Looks like another Friday and somebody forgot to close the gates on the bulls in the eur/usd pair again. More than a couple of virgin traders were sacrificed this time around but what is new. The usual food fight around here on Fridays is not uncommon either. Squaring at the end of the week and G20 meeting will probably keep this pair at bay for now resistance remains the same and support now seen at 2990-3000. A late run at the top would not surprise me either though. So a close for the day under support will go a long way for the bears we will see what develops from here. It is still buy on dips even with the indicators on O/B area on the daily charts IMO. Price action must prove that this is the beginning of the correction first before backing off the bull run IMO.

Gecko hope you are doing well and thanks for the visit here hope it is more often but I would understand if you don’t (Fools rush in) LOL good one. I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. GL GT


van Gecko 16:02 GMT November 19, 2004
London.. yep.. 2 weeks overdue.. it doesn't take much to get the Snowballs rolling down the hill once acrophobia sets in..
take a look at waterfalls during the weeks of Jan/11 & Feb/15th..

London. 15:49 GMT November 19, 2004
Van Gecko , just on more thing , do you see market at these levels overstretched and due for a correction, even after the performance today with Greenspan and co.. appreciate your views

van Gecko 14:39 GMT November 19, 2004
London.. the market seems to be putting the squeeze on those inscrutable sans here.. should the Boss start giving out firing orders to his trigger happy sumo warriors, 1.2825 is within the weekly ATR in my 11:37 scenario..

London. 14:26 GMT November 19, 2004
van Gecko do you think we can get 128.50 s/t Euro this rally on Euro doesnt seem to have legs or feet


van Gecko 13:17 GMT November 19, 2004
valdez.. the 95 Dollar Index low was around 80.. but there's no hard & fast rule that the Dollar must get there to complete a '10 year cycle'.. yes?


quito_ecuador_valdez 12:40 GMT November 19, 2004
Here's a thought for the pros to respond to:
Since USD is the target of concern, intervention threats etc. and since both JPY and EUR are in the works for intervention (we think), it seems like trading USD crosses with those two is tripple threat...USD can be manipulated by BOTH BOJ and ECB..a cork in the ocean. Whereas Swissy involves only one volitile..the USD. Bottom line, it would seem therefore less risky to trade Swissy. Also, since 10year low on Swissy was 1.1100 back I think in 1996, then if the 10 year cycle will repeat fully, we've got some 500 pips to go whereas with €/$ we really don't know with this pair since the pair is much less than 10 years old. Follow me here? What think ye pros & gurus. Food for thought, eh?


van Gecko 11:37 GMT November 19, 2004
London..iw.. the euro weekly ATR for the last few months is around 250 pips.. we had only seen a 160 range this week.. so, the market will either blast through 1.3075 as it is trying to do now or could reverse all the way down to 1.2825.. guess some 'investors' will hum "Fools Rush In" after this week..

London. 11:21 GMT November 19, 2004
Friday is a critical day for EUR bulls, says Merrill Lynch. A daily close in EUR/USD above 1.30 is needed to ease bearish risks, a close below 1.2950 would be damaging. Intra-day tone is positive, but the close should dictate positioning into next week

Helsinki iw 11:17 GMT November 19, 2004
EUR/USD daily volatility is probably close to that 42 bps, so it doesn´t really matter for investors. Basically interest rates are the same across the Atlantic.


van Gecko 10:10 GMT November 19, 2004
the once mighty greenbuck began its serious decend from heaven with a 6 months 1700 basis point dive in 2002.. but since then, it had not fallen for more then 9 weeks without doing a dead cat bounce of at least 300 basis points.. it had been diving for the last 12 weeks without any significant bounces..
so, after having lost 3800 basis points over the last 4 years is this latest Dollar blast up over 1.29 Euro the green flag for the poor Buck to embark on another 6 months 1700 basis point dive ?
back in May when the poor Euro was down at 1.18 with the US Equities falling & Crude Oil rising, some 'Euro/$ Bottom Feeder Club' members were humming Johnny Mercer & Rube Bloom's classic "Fools rush in" lyrics in the shower..
now 6 month later, the scenario had changed.. the mighty Euro is up at 1.30, US Equities are rising, & Crude oil is falling, but Mercer & Bloom is still singing their "Fools Rush In" classic in perpetuality..
interesting times indeed..


Sydney 21:17 GMT November 18, 2004
With $USD at or near multiyear lows against the Canadian and Australian dollars and the Swiss franc. as Van Gecko says many of the medium term players wouldnt consider buying at these levels

London. 16:53 GMT November 17, 2004
Dollar fall could be plausible if the economy was sinking , but its not the EU is , therefore the Administration is manipulating it until they are ready to say enough, which I would imagine for this run is not too far away , only due to the pressure from around the world which will be intense at the weekend, so wouldnt be surprised the next two days we have Van Gecko's dollar recovery coming into the weekend letting Snow off the hook