Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Tuesday, May 11, 2004
van Gecko 10:22 GMT May 10, 2004
Malaga boqueron.. you might be right.. in hindsight, I might regret closing my euro shorts up at 1.19 in April.. however, after a month I had only left 70 pips on the table after giving up my 'Sons Of Beatrice' status..
it's against my risk/reward appetite to dive in here even though '1.15 is a given' as so many 'me too gurus' are advising the herds at the moment..
Malaga boqueron 08:50 GMT May 10, 2004
Hello van Gecko once again. Yes, agree with your thoughts. This could just be a much needed shakeout, before the usd resumes its downfall. However, since mid-February the dollar uptrend is clearly intact, and now it is in the process of breaking key trend lines since the downtrend began in earnest in early 2002, hence good odds the dollar lo's seen this past February will mark the lo of this year. Odds are good the market is in the process of going for the other extreme.
van Gecko 07:57 GMT May 10, 2004
good day Malaga boqueron.. the market is very efficient in flushing excess blood.. exercising prudent risk management in when to milk the market & when to hold back is one of the many tricks of the trades in this biz..
imo the risk of l/t trend continuation (or a substantial pullback) for the dollar far out weights milking the dollar for more reward to the upside at this point..
Malaga boqueron 07:02 GMT May 10, 2004
Hello van Gecko. Always enjoy reading your posts. Just seems to me there are too many usd doomsday preachers out there that need be converted to the usd bull cause before this current usd rally can end. Until then keep buying usd.
van Gecko 06:41 GMT May 10, 2004
If history is about to repeat itself, the market seems to be obsessed with enticing more Bears into the 'Euro/$ Bottom Feeder Club' before reversing with a club full of bag holders..
Near term, old & new club memebers (& dollar bulls) who are in 7th heaven over Friday's price levels should watch Gold, $/Jap & $/Cad like a hawk for Tadpole extension failures..
meanwhile down here on earth,
US Equities are still falling.. Crude oil is still rising..
Mercer & Bloom is still singing their "Fools Rush In" classic in perpetuality..
..the Beat goes on..
interesting times indeed..
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
Malaga boqueron.. you might be right.. in hindsight, I might regret closing my euro shorts up at 1.19 in April.. however, after a month I had only left 70 pips on the table after giving up my 'Sons Of Beatrice' status..
it's against my risk/reward appetite to dive in here even though '1.15 is a given' as so many 'me too gurus' are advising the herds at the moment..
Malaga boqueron 08:50 GMT May 10, 2004
Hello van Gecko once again. Yes, agree with your thoughts. This could just be a much needed shakeout, before the usd resumes its downfall. However, since mid-February the dollar uptrend is clearly intact, and now it is in the process of breaking key trend lines since the downtrend began in earnest in early 2002, hence good odds the dollar lo's seen this past February will mark the lo of this year. Odds are good the market is in the process of going for the other extreme.
van Gecko 07:57 GMT May 10, 2004
good day Malaga boqueron.. the market is very efficient in flushing excess blood.. exercising prudent risk management in when to milk the market & when to hold back is one of the many tricks of the trades in this biz..
imo the risk of l/t trend continuation (or a substantial pullback) for the dollar far out weights milking the dollar for more reward to the upside at this point..
Malaga boqueron 07:02 GMT May 10, 2004
Hello van Gecko. Always enjoy reading your posts. Just seems to me there are too many usd doomsday preachers out there that need be converted to the usd bull cause before this current usd rally can end. Until then keep buying usd.
van Gecko 06:41 GMT May 10, 2004
If history is about to repeat itself, the market seems to be obsessed with enticing more Bears into the 'Euro/$ Bottom Feeder Club' before reversing with a club full of bag holders..
Near term, old & new club memebers (& dollar bulls) who are in 7th heaven over Friday's price levels should watch Gold, $/Jap & $/Cad like a hawk for Tadpole extension failures..
meanwhile down here on earth,
US Equities are still falling.. Crude oil is still rising..
Mercer & Bloom is still singing their "Fools Rush In" classic in perpetuality..
..the Beat goes on..
interesting times indeed..
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Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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