Gaining an Edge over the Forex game of Mind, Money, & Wealth
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Sydney ACC 21:59 GMT November 9, 2006
If China decides to convert 10% of their reserves, i.e. USD 100 billion into euros and this forces the EUR/USD rate to move 5 big figures (4% depreciation) the gain for the PBOC is USD 4 billion
But what about the impact on the balance?
Let’s say there is a further USD 600 billion of USD reserves, these depreciate then USD 24 billion versus the euro.
It’s a bit like the old euphemism “You owe the bank a $ 1million you have a problem, you owe the bank USD 100 million they have a problem”.
U.K. J.B. 21:10 GMT November 9, 2006
Lets not get carried away with all this stale news re China etc. It has been going on for years. Euro/yen 7 years ago was arouind 90 do we really want to be sucked into establishing a lonng euro/yen position 151+ for 160 . I dont think so.
Authorities etc will start to quietly announce certain developments for the tail enders. These guys have been playing with the market. Just ask the next taxi driver that comes a long...imvho gl + gt Pick your r/r levels.
UK Alex 17:38 GMT November 9, 2006
van Gecko 17:33 GMT November 9, 2006
Jason Evans, head of Treasurys trading at Deutsche Bank in New York said, traders have suffered "so many false starts" in terms comments from Chinese officials about the country's forex and reserves accumulation regime that the market has grown somewhat skeptical.
Says it all really...
van Gecko 17:33 GMT November 9, 2006
there are always rumors & counter rumors to create liquidity at any m/t tops & bottoms..
perhaps humming Mercer & Bloom's classic "Fools Rush In" may help..
Vienna GD 17:15 GMT November 9, 2006
Also ... besides the china talk, all the metals in the green, should also boost audusd and nzdusd ... it DOESN'T - this move stinks IMHO.
Vienna GD 16:57 GMT November 9, 2006
I don't believe that china talk ... that's not the way china acts. Yet i think some big boyz want to crack some eurusd options.
And honestly - i think this could well be the blowoff mode in the jpy crosses a la eurjpy, chfjpy etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see a surprise selloff in those jpy crosses within the next 10 days.
van Gecko 16:52 GMT November 9, 2006
Montreal EW 16:15.. imo eur/jpy plays a more prominent role as a guide dog for usd/jpy.. but you may have a case there with so many looking for a euro break..
GVI Jay 16:44 GMT November 9, 2006
This was posted on GVI:
Tor Pumpkin 16:24 GMT November 9, 2006
out 3 mins ago:
FRANKFURT-CHINA CENBANK CHIEF ZHOU SAYS CHINA HAS A VERY CLEAR PLAN TO DIVERSIFY RESERVES
Montreal EW 16:15 GMT November 9, 2006
van Gecko 12:38 GMT November 9, 2006
Gecko, can i ask for clarification? so you are saying that eurjpy is not leading the path of usd anymore?
and, is it under your consideration as well that given the scenario of eurjpy in tight range but euro flies and usdjpy tanks?
van Gecko 14:35 GMT November 9, 2006
"hong kong nt 07:28 GMT October 17, 2006
.... Learn to mind your own business may make life a lot easier..."
hong kong nt 14:24 GMT..
there you go again!
suffering from itchy "foot_in_the_mouth_titist" again?? LOL
hong kong nt 14:24 GMT November 9, 2006
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 9, 2006
very vivid description, if someone likes to publish a comedy on FX, you must be one of the best candidate...
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 9, 2006
GBP due for a bull flush..
below 1.8938 her majesty may showcase her Olympic Double Reverse Back Flip..
1.8938 ---->1.8698 -->1.8538
van Gecko 13:40 GMT November 9, 2006
118.08->118.38
118.88 next..
San Juan Lil 13:38 GMT November 9, 2006
Thanks soooo much to my angel, LahoreFM and my captain, van Gecko and PerryCuomo for giving me the confidence to trade the untradable, $Y... I am long since 118 for keeps and with a stop close to entry.
GL/GT to all
van Gecko 12:38 GMT November 9, 2006
euro--usd/jpy--eur/jpy
1.28 --- 118--- 151
1.25 --- 121--- 151*
1.20 --- 123--- 148*
1.18 --- 127--- 150
expect eur/jpy to remain in a tight mid-term range teasing bulls & bears while the Dollar fly..
van Gecko 07:38 GMT November 9, 2006
Usd/Jpy mini Slings basing above 116.88 & 117.68.. above 118.08 expect the Dollar to fly ->118.38 ~>118.88 near term..
Yellow metal ->600/605
China President, Other Leaders.... to Tame Yellow River
Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
If China decides to convert 10% of their reserves, i.e. USD 100 billion into euros and this forces the EUR/USD rate to move 5 big figures (4% depreciation) the gain for the PBOC is USD 4 billion
But what about the impact on the balance?
Let’s say there is a further USD 600 billion of USD reserves, these depreciate then USD 24 billion versus the euro.
It’s a bit like the old euphemism “You owe the bank a $ 1million you have a problem, you owe the bank USD 100 million they have a problem”.
U.K. J.B. 21:10 GMT November 9, 2006
Lets not get carried away with all this stale news re China etc. It has been going on for years. Euro/yen 7 years ago was arouind 90 do we really want to be sucked into establishing a lonng euro/yen position 151+ for 160 . I dont think so.
Authorities etc will start to quietly announce certain developments for the tail enders. These guys have been playing with the market. Just ask the next taxi driver that comes a long...imvho gl + gt Pick your r/r levels.
UK Alex 17:38 GMT November 9, 2006
van Gecko 17:33 GMT November 9, 2006
Jason Evans, head of Treasurys trading at Deutsche Bank in New York said, traders have suffered "so many false starts" in terms comments from Chinese officials about the country's forex and reserves accumulation regime that the market has grown somewhat skeptical.
Says it all really...
van Gecko 17:33 GMT November 9, 2006
there are always rumors & counter rumors to create liquidity at any m/t tops & bottoms..
perhaps humming Mercer & Bloom's classic "Fools Rush In" may help..
Vienna GD 17:15 GMT November 9, 2006
Also ... besides the china talk, all the metals in the green, should also boost audusd and nzdusd ... it DOESN'T - this move stinks IMHO.
Vienna GD 16:57 GMT November 9, 2006
I don't believe that china talk ... that's not the way china acts. Yet i think some big boyz want to crack some eurusd options.
And honestly - i think this could well be the blowoff mode in the jpy crosses a la eurjpy, chfjpy etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see a surprise selloff in those jpy crosses within the next 10 days.
van Gecko 16:52 GMT November 9, 2006
Montreal EW 16:15.. imo eur/jpy plays a more prominent role as a guide dog for usd/jpy.. but you may have a case there with so many looking for a euro break..
GVI Jay 16:44 GMT November 9, 2006
This was posted on GVI:
Tor Pumpkin 16:24 GMT November 9, 2006
out 3 mins ago:
FRANKFURT-CHINA CENBANK CHIEF ZHOU SAYS CHINA HAS A VERY CLEAR PLAN TO DIVERSIFY RESERVES
Montreal EW 16:15 GMT November 9, 2006
van Gecko 12:38 GMT November 9, 2006
Gecko, can i ask for clarification? so you are saying that eurjpy is not leading the path of usd anymore?
and, is it under your consideration as well that given the scenario of eurjpy in tight range but euro flies and usdjpy tanks?
van Gecko 14:35 GMT November 9, 2006
"hong kong nt 07:28 GMT October 17, 2006
.... Learn to mind your own business may make life a lot easier..."
hong kong nt 14:24 GMT..
there you go again!
suffering from itchy "foot_in_the_mouth_titist" again?? LOL
hong kong nt 14:24 GMT November 9, 2006
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 9, 2006
very vivid description, if someone likes to publish a comedy on FX, you must be one of the best candidate...
van Gecko 14:18 GMT November 9, 2006
GBP due for a bull flush..
below 1.8938 her majesty may showcase her Olympic Double Reverse Back Flip..
1.8938 ---->1.8698 -->1.8538
van Gecko 13:40 GMT November 9, 2006
118.08->118.38
118.88 next..
San Juan Lil 13:38 GMT November 9, 2006
Thanks soooo much to my angel, LahoreFM and my captain, van Gecko and PerryCuomo for giving me the confidence to trade the untradable, $Y... I am long since 118 for keeps and with a stop close to entry.
GL/GT to all
van Gecko 12:38 GMT November 9, 2006
euro--usd/jpy--eur/jpy
1.28 --- 118--- 151
1.25 --- 121--- 151*
1.20 --- 123--- 148*
1.18 --- 127--- 150
expect eur/jpy to remain in a tight mid-term range teasing bulls & bears while the Dollar fly..
van Gecko 07:38 GMT November 9, 2006
Usd/Jpy mini Slings basing above 116.88 & 117.68.. above 118.08 expect the Dollar to fly ->118.38 ~>118.88 near term..
Yellow metal ->600/605
China President, Other Leaders.... to Tame Yellow River
Comments:
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Trading is not an exact science contrary to the popular belief of most new or inexperience traders.. In trading, we must allow for some margin of errors within our defined risk & trading time frame.. allowing for this margin of error under the constraint of trading in micro time frames with stops & profit targets all inside a small fluctuating market noise band in hope of achieving consistent profits over time is very difficult, if not impossible.. as whenever we are right, we are only small right within the confine of the small P/L band which limit our odds to playing for break even at best over time.. Trading longer time frames allows for a wider margin of error but at the expenses of increased risk.. however, the odds of being right & achieving consistent profits over time are enhanced when good market analytic & trade management strategies are applied under the proper market bias.. When we are right, we need to ensure that we are bigger right over an expanded profit band in-order to compensate for those times when we are wrong..
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