Gecko Global Analytics

van Gecko 02:18 GMT January 31, 2003
Sfx.. cheers.. the best for you & yours in the up & coming year of the Goat !

Singapore Sfx 02:12 GMT January 31, 2003
Gecko 02.04 // Well said ... particularly the "manage the risk objectively" bit .. Just think that free flow of information (such as GV) tends to give us all ambitions which our risk profiles cannot handle. Sort of "ego writing cheques that the wallet can't cash" .. Tks for your thoughts as always. Cheers


van Gecko 02:04 GMT January 31, 2003
Ldn..:)) sorry.. i have no crystal balls.. imo it's absolutely useless to forecast or worry about the long term.. the average small spec trader should only try to manage their risk objectively over the next 2 to 3 figures at a shot instead of wasting their time discussing & forecasting long term directions..

van Gecko 01:52 GMT January 31, 2003
well.. mk, yes, its a 100% do or dive situation here! the onus are on the market moving European/geopoltic/momentum funny bulls to keep pushing them up to the moon.. or dive!

Fairfax mk 01:45 GMT January 31, 2003
Yes, Gecko, seems fairly do-or-die m/t levels for all the Europeans around here. Price and time parameters for GBP seem perfectly set up for ... a false break to the upside from here, if such a break is seen.

van Gecko 01:39 GMT January 31, 2003
mk vely interesting l/t GBP Index chart.. seems like the decrease in voilatiies since the 90's mirrors the recent 21th century snoozy markets across the board.. may be we are vely near another l/t market b/o up or down.. back to the old wild west gunslinging days soon..

van Gecko 01:22 GMT January 31, 2003
Boston akm.. sorry, no idea.. hope you didn't incur your loses by following the forum blindly..
good luck in 2003..


van Gecko 00:48 GMT January 31, 2003
Tony, i agree.. nothing beats a profit conscious nagging Juillett to keep a greedy bull (or bear, or pig..:) in check.. especially during those times when we think we can 'see' into the future with absolute certainity & have the bull (or bear, or pig..:) by the tail..
;)
good evening islander.. thank you.. trust you & 'Tampa Lil' is flying United these days ?
:o))

van Gecko 20:15 GMT January 30, 2003
ab.. with the dollar holding firm @ 99.50's, euro is not going anywhere up soon.. imo this gbp reversal was cross driven, so with eur/gbp seems to had find intermedite support before another sell-off.. some gbp/jpy retracement before cracking the tough 197.00/50 band.. it's reasonable to expect some relief if you're a brave (& soon to be extinguished?..:) gbp contra solider..

van Gecko 19:21 GMT January 30, 2003
pd cumino 19:03..:)) I don't say you have to do "my" or "your" strategies either, but most of us here are from 'English as a 2nd language' origin.. so it's quite obvious lotsa confusions & misunderstand can & must be expected in this diversed global community..
gl..

van Gecko 18:50 GMT January 30, 2003
pd cumino .. yes, what you want to said in your 18:32 is that they are intraday pip-noise scalpers with access to some pip flows.. but for most of us who don't have access to those flow info or a direct line to a market moving uncle, the 'best survival bet' in this fx'ing cesspool may be to learn s/m/t positional trade with your option hedging strategies.. no?

van Gecko 18:32 GMT January 30, 2003
kevin.. thanks..
viies 18:24.. agree, imo those who make it in this biz share some traits which sets them apart from the usual crowd.. you either have it.. or you don't.. plain & simple..:)

van Gecko 18:23 GMT January 30, 2003
Helsinki iw.. no offence intended.. but if 88% of us lose in fx & get wiped-out eventually.. & 88% talk & do the same boring losing stuffs.. then the other 12% must be doing & talking something different.. no ?

van Gecko 18:05 GMT January 30, 2003
pd cumino.. thank you for sharing your views..
fwiw.. imo this forum prefers rumors, after the fact explanation for moves, simple & absolute buy/sell levels..
anything else, you might as well as sing & h'i$$ against the wind.. :)

van Gecko 17:28 GMT January 30, 2003
micro term, gbp/usd is dancing to the tune of the gbp/jpy bull..
s/m/t, gbp/usd & euro dance to together..
for today.. all gbp/usd pip-pickers & positional players should watch the gbp/jpy 197 line for directional clues..
fwiw.. freebie analytics..
Cheerios..


van Gecko 13:17 GMT January 30, 2003
1.0388 is a vely lucky number combo to finish off the year of the Golden Horse & start off the year of the Goat..


van Gecko 20:28 GMT January 29, 2003
morning nj 18:56.. "we moves in mysterious ways"
a duet by EU2 & her Highness;
"She's slippy
EU sliding down
She'll be there when EU hit the ground..

It's alright, it's alright, it's alright
She moves in mysterious ways..
It's alright, it's alright, it's alright
We moves in mysterious ways.."
;
as the market approach Friday, the word "..end.. " could play a significant role here..
with 2 more trading days left till the end of the month & the end of the year of the Golden Horse, we could see a mass liquidation of dollar short possies as Asian momentum players will be thinking about locking in their month-end & year- end profits before their recent winfall$ are h'i$$ed away with the departing Horse & end the year as a fx'ing Goat..

Athens 18:58 GMT January 29, 2003
Even so, the Dollar is not out of the woods yet. A close below my basis level 1.0825 today would be encouraging, while, more important, it would need to clear 1.0765-80 on Thursday to paint a more positive picture for the USD, while a break tomorrow of 1.0680 would strongly suggest that 1.0910 may serve as a medium term top.

nj 18:56 GMT January 29, 2003
Van Gecko: We have to be doing technical damage to this trend in the last 12 hours . Maybe the turn is here.Would like to see her Highness confirm .


van Gecko 17:40 GMT January 28, 2003
London AL 17:18.. thank you for sharing your nice analysis, i also use the IMM Futues charts to complement the spot levels.. imo most Futures players being s/m/t positional traders are more level conscious as some major s/r levels in the Futures charts tends to stand-out with precision like sore thumbs ..

van Gecko 17:29 GMT January 28, 2003
morning ab.. i agree with CAN GOOSE's view on the flight of the Geese..
gl..
morning rivesaltes leg.. imo most of us like to interpet charts to suit.. & that subjective interpetation also carries over to chart formation studies..
that said, s/h/s necklines do fit nicely into my 'multiiple time frame trend Flatline analytics' where "Flatline/neckline/supports usually fail & break in the direction of the most recent prevailing macro or micro trend.."
gl..


van Gecko 16:43 GMT January 28, 2003
Helsinki iw 16:34.. well done, hourly charts 'clearly' show euro may retest the right shoulder of a micro s/h/s formation.. any failure ahead of 1.09 should flush out more $bears to t/p & bring out more savvy SOB'er $bulls..
yesterday was the 1st days for the funds to do their end of month t/p..
Cheerios..

van Gecko 14:38 GMT January 28, 2003
morning JP'ipski.. mm.. you may had brought up an ideal credit spread analysis.. how about buying a 2 month Saddam 65 Put to rest with a KI the A$$ 69 ?
:))


van Gecko 13:58 GMT January 28, 2003
UN Resolution 1441..
'1441', a vely bad numeric combo.. the question is.. is it vely bad for the UN? or is it vely bad for Saddam ?

van Gecko 13:49 GMT January 28, 2003
with the dollar index stablizing near 100 & euro/gbp undergoing a cross adjustment below .6600, GBP may be offering some good risk SOB opportunities for some of her Highness's m/t short marching soldiers..

van Gecko 17:34 GMT January 27, 2003
Buenos Aires DB.. since the mid 90's GBP/USD had not risen for more then 2300 pips without making a some sort of substantial retracement.. imo with each weekly rise toward 1.65 the r/r ratios should be inversely stacked for both bear/bull m/t positional players..
the recent geopolitic/warmonger posturings may had postponed her Highness annual January Drop into a February Flop this year..


van Gecko 16:41 GMT January 27, 2003
with eur/jpy confirming a level shift from the 123/125 range up to the 126/129's & gbp/jpy doing a catch-up.. odds are that usd/jpy should see a 118/120's range before 116/115.. a Japanese trio lead dollar bottoming process ?

van Gecko 15:24 GMT January 23, 2003
morning islander.. a tall coconut cocktail under the island sun would be a nice diversion from these chilly & grey Lotusland nights..
have a nice day..;)
morning yvr maxxim & Mex Osk.. it's nice to see you here again, sorry for the late reply.. if you had been enjoying time away from fx, may be it'll be more rewarding to stay away until this funny 'geopolitical/Saddam/Uncle Sam' thingy boils over.. on the other hand, depending on your risk profile & trading style the present market may offer some good r/r m/t strategic positioning opportunties..
have a nice day.. & good trades to you & all my friends..

van Gecko 14:15 GMT January 20, 2003
in the 6 months leading up to the January 1991 war with Saddam GBP/USD shot up 3000+ pips with a very bullish 6 month bull flag.. back then, just when almost everybody & their British bulldogs was screaming for another 3000 pip rise up to the moon, her Highness did an above face U-turn with the 6 months 4000 pip great GBP slide of '91..
since mid '02 GBP/USD is repeating the same 6 month bullish flag, but with reduced amplitude consistent with the recent year's decrease voliatity in her Majesty (and across the board for all major pairs).. will her Highness repeat history this year ?
a monthly closing at/near/below 1.5850 could be the trigger for the start of another 6 months reverse backflip dive.. circa '03 ..
Cheerios..
Gaza Ibiza 11:39.. good luck with your GBP possies..
cheers..
hk revdax 04:30.. 3 cheers for the upcoming euro slide!
gl..

van Gecko 02:05 GMT January 15, 2003
LA3 21:59.. sorry for the late reply.. Usd/Jpy m/t side to up bias.. s/t down from 125 conforming to the recent dollar softness.. mini term, extremely bearish tones after being 'double crossed' by the 3 day slide in it's crosses & the spill over dollar negative effects from the raging Euro ..
from here, the market could consolidate with a risk of further slides to the 'all bear 115' target on a decisive break of Euro 1.065..
however, with the BOJ/MOF Sans singing the intervention blues & the dollar reaching a critical 'bear/lagtime' turning point along with the seasonal Jan/1Qtr bullish bias, the slide could be limited & one can't rule out a near term return to the 7 month range top up at the 125's..
;
gold coast 22:36.. cheers.. & good trades..

van Gecko 21:45 GMT January 14, 2003
Taipei lee.. my 'critical bull price/lagtime indicators' are simple tech indicators combined with some 'school of hardnock voodoo charting' know hows.. they had serve me well over the years..
Pecs Andras.. sorry for the confusion.. never claim to have 'prefect timming' and never will be.. perfect tops & bottom can only be picked & evident in hindsight..
under my trading time frames, my system usually give me enough advance warnings for me to scale in & manage my trades within a couple figures from most major/swing top/bottoms.. of course, if the market tells me i am wrong, theres always my 'bail-out' limits.. ;)


van Gecko 14:08 GMT January 8, 2003
Qindex 13:30.. good evening.. 'Tapoles' are 2 bar range extension formations.. Tadpole Reversals usually occur at/near the top/bottom of a range or major r/s levels when the present bar reverses and violated the preceding bar's L/H limits..
under these conditions, reversals up at the higher time frames are good bet top/bottom/advance turning point indications..
please see the majors dailies 2 bar formation for periods Jan/3 to 7th..
gl & great forecast..


van Gecko 23:01 GMT January 2, 2003
happy new year Mitch! the 'tail' is fine, how's surfing?
re your 21:00/02.. trend following is fine, but trend following with 'closed eyes' may be questionable.. imo when most traders/tech&funnymental analysts/joe public/etal are all singing in harmony for the demise of allthings USA, then one has to reassess the trend.. for we all know all 'trends' will end eventually.. no?
an impulsive reversal by the dollar & 2%+ daily reversals in the US equities certainly can't being discounted lightly as a mere correction within a s/m/t down trend, especially when the reversals are in coincident with some mayor historical price/time levels..
did you ever notice how the dow's recent low was over a thousand point above the October/july lows while the dollar was getting beat up by the Europeans but managed to stay within a historical support band ?



van Gecko 19:10 GMT January 2, 2003
Kenya Joe good afternoon, better odds for USD/JPY 140/150 then 110/100 over the long term..

van Gecko 19:02 GMT January 2, 2003
Toronto BA.. the real money in FX is with the l/m/term moves.. and FX is moved by major players/syndicates with l/m/term views who tends to sit on their positions for weeks & months at a time..
most are patient, they manage their positions from a m/t big picture risk/reward basis, & they certainly don't get to be big by doing consistent "Buy high/Sell low" at/near some major peaks & troughs..
right now, the r/r for a lower dollar from here lacks 'major player/syndicates appeal' as 'Big player liquidity' is getting rather thin to push the dollar lower from here..

van Gecko 17:48 GMT January 2, 2003
hk ab.. i don't knows where her Highness's bottom is today.. that said, those big bull pushers are t/p like crazy today to lock in their profits before they are h'i$$ed into the wind.. but, in a comforting note, we are also approaching/exceeded recent max daily ATR's here..;)

hk ab 17:39 GMT January 2, 2003
gecko, Would appreciate your view on gbp low for today. TIA!!!

van Gecko 17:22 GMT January 2, 2003
Ibiza.. anything below 1.02 will be quite troublesome to the $bears..
in Fx, those savvy l/m/term market mover/operators tends to move the market from one extreme to another on an 'annualized h/l cycle' based.. ie, if the year starts from at/near some major high, they push for the lows for the rest of the year.. & vice versa..
and this year, the dollar is starting the year at/near a major low..
gl..

Gaza Ibiza 17:06 GMT January 2, 2003
Gecko lets whatch and see...we might very well go lower to the low 1.02 on this euro....but it sure will be a fun year..GL and GT

van Gecko 16:56 GMT January 2, 2003
Ibiza.. the depth of the forecoming retracement/trend reversal will be played out with lead/lag steps between eur/usd, gbp/usd, eur/gbp & the usdx Index..
eur/gbp .6550 & usdx 102/100 are major r/s levels..

GAZA Ibiza 16:44 GMT January 2, 2003
Cheers Gecko...any clue to what is holding up the lady from down under...;)

van Gecko 16:36 GMT January 2, 2003
Ibiza.. same to you.. cold, wet, & miserable, but vely good zzz weather up here.. 1 saw your year-end nice Swissy call!

Gaza Ibiza 16:29 GMT January 2, 2003
Gecko Happy New Year...I hope you have some sun up there today!

van Gecko 16:27 GMT January 2, 2003
the annual 'January Drop' for her Highness GBP & her Euro/swissy cousins came right on que.. below 1.5950, the merry go south correction/trend reversal will accelerate..


van Gecko 14:07 GMT January 2, 2003
PAST bashing **DOES** PREDICT FUTURE bashing.. old bashing habits 'dive' hard.. happy new year dollarbasher(s)!

NYC YIPPEE 13:57 GMT January 2, 2003
US dollarbasher 13:53 GMT January 2, 2003
If this is on the cards How much for 2 bags of crack when Gold is @ 5000?

US dollarbasher 13:53 GMT January 2, 2003
The PAST **DOES** PREDICT THE FUTURE!