Gecko Global Analytics

NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - The dollar gained broadly on Monday, staging its largest one-day rally versus the euro in a month, as a sharp fall in gold and other commodity prices gave the greenback some respite from its relentless bear trend.

Concern that a potential commodities bubble could dampen economic growth caused spot gold to take its biggest one-day fall in over six years, while an index of a basket of commodities registered its largest daily decline in almost 20 years.


van Gecko 13:11 GMT May 15, 2006
Miami OMIL (/:-> 12:56.. good day, hope you're fine..
i guess 'dung or gift' is relative to one's depth of the pocket.. btw, good call with the euro.. cheers..

Miami OMIL (/:-> 12:56 GMT May 15, 2006
van Gecko 12:50 GMT May 15, 2006
LOL I will take that yellow dung any time with the prices poised to test the highs back in the late 80's buddy LOL. I have no signs of correction on the way for the short term on the Gold. If 730 holds up as the top for now I have 680-85, 650-55, 630-35 and 610-15 as retracement numbers for now IMHO. Peace and GT

van Gecko 12:50 GMT May 15, 2006
imo the gift could turn out to be a load of yellow dung

dc CB 12:46 GMT May 15, 2006
seems the sell off in gold is being viewed as a gift


van Gecko 08:29 GMT May 15, 2006
the yellow metal finally losing its shine.. her majesty GBP 1/2 way to a 200 pip day.. 1/4 way to a 500 week.. lotsa BOOB'ing going on (Bail Out On Blips)..

gold @707.. GBP @1.8900

hong kong seek 08:03 GMT May 15, 2006
what's wrong with gold ?

Athens 11:02 GMT May 14, 2006
Personally I don't find the pattern healthy but rather fishy and many things keep me worried. It is very unusual to see the resumption of a long term trend, following the long term correction which always takes 12+ months to complete, to recover 60-70% of the correction territory in a month and a half as it has been the case with $/CHF and cable. The current pace of price moves fits more to corrections than to trends as the former as a rule are much faster than the latter on any time horizon. Accepted, we had a long lasting consolidation before the breakout and in similar cases the breakout is strong, however I am questioning the trend's real underlying strength on lack of a broad basis. I mean that the absence of healthy corrections has most probably left many (if not most) of would-be USD sellers out of this super move for I believe that most of those who sold the greenback during the early stages have taken their modest profits and failed to re-enter by waiting for decent technical corrections. If this i true, then the latest wild price extensions are either based on a continuous squeezing of daily bottom fishing or on large short USD positions held by only a few very big players (perhaps in good early knowledge of US Administration benign neglect for the Dollar), who, being only a few, can largely manipulate this market and take it to any USD abyss or turn it abruptly for any reason.
On the big picture one can hardly find any "nut" who does not believe that this strong price action will not lead to new USD losses and eventually new long term USD lows. I don't mean to be a heretic (besides, my model has still not yet given a reversal signal other than indicating certain seriously overextended parameters), however, to keep everything in mind just in case, I would like to remind you a few facts. In October 2000 EUR/$ reached its historic low 0.8225. In January 2001 the large correction reached 0.9595 (a 16.6% corrective leg). Then in July 2001 the unit fell back to 0.8350 (a 92% retracement) before the actual long term reversal set in. Those who were in the market at that time will certainly remember that on the way to 0.8350 there were very loud voices and plenty of noise about the Titanic sinking and EUR heading for 0.65-0.70. And yet, the Euro-Titanic not even did not sink but flied to 1.3665... By no means am I implying that the story will repeat itself in the opposite direction for I am not a prophet. What I am trying to say, however, is that even a deep correction from the current highly overstretched (more so in the other USD pairs and less so in EUR/$) or a bit (maybe) lower USD levels, even if the long term is to continue later, can be more than enough to "kill" for good any late USD bears. Those who bank on digging out the very dusted US deficits issues know very well (or they should) that such fundamental arguments are thrown into the dustbin when they no longer suit the market.