Gecko Global Analytics

van Gecko 09:43 GMT May 3, 2007
Despite the recent ease in beating down the dollar, the rules of engagement for further Dollar weakness below Index 81/80 may be quite different from the 5 year "bear walk in the park" inside the 120/80 historical bands..
Euro & cousin GBP must maintain their recent over-shoot mode or risk "bullistic acrophobia" from multi-year heights..

As for "black box" trading "altering" the rules of the game.. nothing new under the sun as it had always been a part of the business.. all "black boxes" will turn into "bleak boxes" sooner or later as there's no holy grail edge in the market.. cheerios


Gold Coast Martin 13:08 GMT May 2, 2007
Trading since 2006 has seen the introduction of more "black box"propriatary systems been adopted by more and more market movers. This has resulted in more daily reversals within the week as these systems trade the market in either direction on a daily basis in 45-90 pip increments...which means that it is harder for the market to drop/rise 200-300 in a straight line and harder for traders to hold a trade for that long. Add the extra liquidity to the market by the entry of new players and this provides more "food"for the black boxes everyday. So for "stay at home"traders it is becoming harder and harder every week/month/year to produce consistent profit off such a market. This extra increasing liquidity these days works against the smaller traders, while increasing the winning propability of these automated systems. It is becoming a on sided market....Solution against this is to trade shorter time frames and to trade longer term options. This way , the small trader trades "with the black box daily flow" and at the same overcomes the daily noise produced by them via option plays.....g/l to all...

GBP/JPY is finally running into some strong head wind after 7 years of un-obstructed bull run traversing the old 150/240 long term band.. meanwhile, that eccentric old fella Cable had finally gone "ballistic" in over-shooting the quarter century highs..so, what gives from here? up or down from here, Cable & Euro will follow each other like Pavlov's lead dogs
Crosses giveth Crosses taketh..


shanghai bc 10:33 GMT April 19, 2007
I am expecting overall Dollar weakness in this round with Yen carry trading playing only a secondary importance..Yen may go to 110-..But other majors may advance more or less the same distance with possible historic low of DX sometime this year....


shanghai bc 23:21 GMT April 17, 2007
GBP may go up as far as 2.05 in this round ..It may correct sometime in May below 2.00 before heading for 2.10 sometime this year..In any case,with US policy makers shouting for the devaluation of Dollar,it may not be that hard to fall below DX 80.00 this time..DX 70.00 is the level traders should not be surprised to see in time too..Devaluing one's currency is not that difficult job even for politicians with little talent..They cry the river in pubic they will get it sooner than they thought..

Labels: Euro, GBP